Tour de France 2010: Rest Day Recap 1

It looks like the 2010 Tour de France won't exactly live up to it's Lance vs. Cantador bidding, but it may end up being even better. 

Pre-Race Build-Up
When Lance Armstrong retired from cycling in 2006 after winning seven straight Tours de France, it was Spain's Alberto Cantador that took up the mantle of the world's greatest road cyclist, and he did it for Armstrong's old team and manager, Discovery and Johan Bruyneel.  Catador won the 2007 Tour and looked primed to start his own streak.  Discovery dropped their sponsorship of the team however, and Bruyneel took his team to Astana, rebuilding the team after it had been decimated by doping violations. 

The sins of the prior team management and athletes haunted Astana in 2008 as they were banned from the Tour de France, despite that no one on the team or running the team had been around when the doping had occurred.  So Cantador was prevented from defending his title, and a somewhat lackluster 2008 Tour was won by Carlos Sastre. 

Armstrong came back out of retirement for the 2009 season and joined Bruyneel with Astana, but he openly said at the time that the team's leader was Cantador, who had developed into the world's greatest climber, an exceptional time trialist, and a master tactician.  He was simply the best rider in the world and Armstrong wanted to support him and help raise the profile of his own cancer-fighting efforts.  However Armstrong's fame and the surprisingly high level at which he was riding after three years off were clear problems for the team and a rivalry developed between the two champions. 

After six stages of the 2009 Tour, Armstrong was placed above Cantador in the overall standings, though he still insisted he was riding in support of Cantador.  After all, what happens in the first week is generally only a footnote to how things finish up.  That said, when Cantador attacked on a climb in stage 7, carrying two rival riders away and pushing his own teammates (Armstrong, Levi Leipheimer, and Andreas Kloden) down in the standings, it was considered against protocol, especially since the team had been specifically directed by their manager to not make such a move.  So Cantador bolted away, Saxobank's Frank and Andy Schleck went with him, and Armstrong stayed back to prevent other rivals from bridging the gap along with him, and a serious schism was formed within the team.

For the remainder of the 2009 Tour, Armstrong dutifully played the role of support rider, and those on the team in his camp did the same. Cantador went on to a sizeable win in the 2009 Tour.  Afterwards, he cut the last tenuous ties to Armstrong by badmouthing him in post-race interviews and that spelled the end of that generation of Team Astana.  Armstrong and Bruyneel went on to form Team RadioShack for 2010 and took eight of the nine riders from Astana with them (Cantador being the lone hold-out, of course).

Much of the pre-2010 Tour press billed this race as a final showdown between the retiring Lance Armstrong and the reigning Alberto Cantador.  And as great as that story might have been, it was not to be.  But it's probably not even the most intriguing of plots. 

• Would Cantador's reformed Astana team be strong enough to support him?
• Could Astana stay clean with the management and primary rider (Alexander Vinokourov) just coming off of two-year bans for doping?
• Is Cantador so strong that he doesn't need support anyway?
• Can two loose cannons like Vinokourov and Cantador co-exist or will Vino try to hijack the team like he did from Jan Ullrich on T-Mobile?
• Is Armstrong still strong enough to truly compete?
• Isn't Cantador's true rival Andy Schleck?
• Can Cadel Evans get over the hump and win it all on a new team with George Hincapie at his side?
• Aside from Cantador's dominance, this appears to be one of the deepest talent pools perhaps of all time, with no less than 11 reasonable picks to win (Cantador, Armstrong, Leipheimer, Christian Vandevelde, Schleck, Evans, Frank Schleck, Bradley Wiggins, Ivan Basso, Denis Menchov, and Michael Rogers).
• How many stages can Mark Cavendish win, and will Tyler Farrar finally get one?
• Cavendish vs. Thor Hushovd in the Green jersey competition.
• Who is the next great American to emerge (Leipheimer, Vandevelde, Chris Horner, Farrar, David Zabriskie)?
• Three American teams for the first time ever.
• Will Fabian Cancellara really have a motor on his bike during the Prologue and time trial?
• How long will Cancellara hang onto the Yellow jersey after his certain win in the Prologue?

Now a week later, many of these questions have been answered, but the biggest ones have not been, and perhaps the most interesting storyline that no one thought of has emerged: what if Armstrong falls out of contention in week one and then just starts attacking like a mad-man and blows the whole race apart later?

Week 1 Highlights
Prologue: Cancellara wins (predictably).  Armstrong finishes ahead of Cantador.  Andy Schleck stumbles out of the gate and loses 32 seconds to Cantador (worst start among all general classification favorites). 

Stage 1: Mark Cavendish and Tyler Farrar are among dozens caught in crashes including a massive one right near the end.  Both miss out on the final sprint (won by Alessandro Petacchi).  Cancellara retains the Yellow jersey.

Stage 2: France's Sylvain Chavanel escapes the peloton, wins the stage by nearly three minutes and takes over the Yellow jersey.  The stage is filled with crashes once again.  Vandevelde is out with broken ribs. Farrar breaks his wrist but will continue.  Armstrong, both Schlecks, Cantador, Kloden, Hincapie, Wiggins and other favorites all crash as well.  Cancellara "neutralizes" the field, asking other riders not to attack with so many being caught in crashes (essentially preventing his own chances of keeping the Yellow jersey and keeping Evans from gaining huge time on his rivals since he remained unscathed).

Stage 3: A brutal cobblestone-filled stage takes its toll as Chavanel pops a tire three times, abruptly ending his reign in Yellow.  Armstrong loses time to Cantador after a flat tire of his own.  Thor Hushovd survives the cobbles to win the final sprint and take a commanding lead in the Green jersey competition as most of his rivals are content to just survive this stage.  Evans and Andy Schleck beat Cantador by nearly a minute.  Vinokourov dutifully plays the role of "domestique," supporting Cantador for nearly the entire stage...before suddenly leaving him in the dust near the end, allowing Wiggins to gain 20 seconds on Catador.  Frank Schleck is out with broken ribs.

Stage 4: The sprinters have their day on a flat stage.  Petacchi wins again, surging past Cavendish with Hushovd sitting on Cavendish's wheel, but Hushovd retains a commanding Green jersey lead.  Cancellara retains Yellow.  With Farrar unable to sprint yet, his two leadout men get the chance to open up and go for the win.  Julian Dean places 2nd and Robbie Hunter is 5th.

Stage 5: Another flat stage, but Cavendish is able to put it all together finally and blows everyone away in the sprint.  Surprisingly, Dean and Hunter set up Farrar this time, but he only finishes 10th.  Hushovd and Cancellara keep their jerseys, with Jerome Pineau still the only rider to wear the Polka-dot climbers jersey this year.

Stage 6: Cavendish puts his stamp on this flat stage as well, winning his second straight stage and establishing himself as the fastest man in the field again.  Farrar takes second.  Four Astana riders seemingly take the day off (combined they lost around 27:00 to the field), perhaps preparing for the mountains coming in Stage 7.  Cancellara, Hushovd, and Pineau retain their jerseys.

Stage 7: The riders see their first serious climbs of the 2010 Tour, though this is only considered a low-mountain stage going over six categorized climbs: 3, 4, 3, 2, 2, and 2 (1 being the hardest). Cancellara was dropped from the peloton on the first serious climb-attack, but recovered later.  He was never expected to survive the mountains in the lead.  Pineau defends his climbers jersey admirably, joining an early breakaway group to capture huge amounts of points on each of the first five climbs. 

On the final climb, Astana tkes over the pace-making and blows the peloton apart (that rest in Stage 6 came in handy!).  Chavanel is able to breakaway from the peloton, reclaiming the Yellow jersey and the over all lead (though he was allowed to go because he is not considered a great threat in the lond run).  None of the general classification contenders really push hard or are pushed hard, and all finish together. 

Stage 8: Finally tested against the high Alps, the field is blown apart.  Armstrong crashes three times, once just as the peloton begins powering up the massive category 1 climb up Col de la Ramaz.  Four teammates stay back to guide him back into the peloton, but by the time they do, the leaders have already broken away and Amrstrong has used far too much energy just trying to get back in the race.  In the end, he loses nearly 12 minutes on the leaders. 

This stage features four categorized climbs, including two Cat-1's (4, 4, 1, 3, 1).  Cadel Evans is caught in one of the crashes that also catches Armstrong, but Evans is actually thrown from the bike, taking some cuts to his knee, hip and elbow.  Evans' fall (4 miles into the race) is far earlier than Armstrong's bad fall, so he recovers nicely.

Besides Armstrong, all of the other major contenders stay together throughout the stage, with Astana establishing themselves as the Tour's strongest team by far.  Vinokourov and Daniel Navarro carry Cantador and the rest of the contenders nearly all the way to the finish before any of them is able to make any serious attacks. 

Cantador runs down the first few attacks in the final miles, but he is unable to stay with Andy Schleck, who escapes the pack to win the stage and pick up 10 seconds on Cantador and the rest.  But more importantly, he shows he is able to handle a serious mountain stage without teammates helping, specifically his brother, Frank. 

In the end, Evans moves up into the over all lead and the Yellow jersey.  Schleck slides into 2nd, 20 second back.  Cantador is third, 1:10 back.  And the rest of the major contenders (sans Armstrong) all sit in the top 15, all within about three minutes of the lead. 

Stage 9 and Beyond
With Armstrong all but out of the running for the win, he said after Stage 8 that he would now just have fun, enjoy his last Tour, support new RadioShack leader Levi Leipheimer, and try to win some stages.  This brings up an interesting problem for the rest of the field: if Lance Armstrong (now nearly 13 minutes off the pace) makes a bold move on a climb, don't the leaders have to go with him?  Typically a rider who is that far back is not a threat and his moves wouldn't be countered, but this is Lance Armstrong.  You can't let him go, but you also don't know if you can stay with him...so is it worth it to get totally burned out tracking him down, when you may not be able to recover well in later stages as a result?

Regardless of whether Armstrong or another American wins over all, isn't this exactly the type of role we would want our heroes to be in?  Complete wild cards.  Armstrong won't hinder Leipheimer's chances to win; he is the consumate teammate.  But don't you think he would love to stick it to Cantador somehow?  I can see him attacking constantly over the next two weeks, forcing Cantador to be on the defensive all the time, and wearing him out. 

And besides this and all those unanswered questions from above, we have these interesting storylines to follow now as well...

• Can Andy thrive without Frank?
• Can Farrar overcome broken wrist to finally win a stage?
• Can anyone touch Cavendish now that he's back?
• Will Vinokourov be the good teammate to Cantador or will he be his old reckless self?
• Will Evans, who has a history of struggling to race in the lead, crack in Yellow again?
• Can Leipheimer get over the hump now that he is the unquestioned leader of Bruyneel's team?
• Now that the top three realistic pre-race favorites are 1-2-3, how will their teams' tactics change?

Looking Ahead
Stage 9: 5 categorized climbs (4, 1, 2, 1, HC) including Col de la Colombiere (1) and Col de la Madeleine (HC).  Finishes with a long descent, but the climbs are so tough that this could break the field apart, especially if Armstrong or another contender gets aggressive.  How will they do the day after a rest day?

Stage 10: 3 categorized climbs (1, 3, 2) but a long descent into the finish that may allow dropped riders to recover, which could prevent major attacks by contenders.  It's a good race profile for a breakway to survive all the way to the finish.  July 14 is Bastille Day in France, so watch out for patriotic Frenchmen in the breakaways (I'm looking at you, Sylvain Chavanel, Christophe Moreau, and Thomas Voekler). 

Stage 11: Flat stage that will favor the sprinters. 

Stage 12 and 13: 5 categorized climbs each, but none greater that a Cat-2, so these could both end up being bunch sprints unless a breakway gets clear.  The contenders will likely use these stages as "recovery" days before the coming attacks in the Pyranees. 

Stage 14: After a long, flat run-up, this stage finishes with two brutal climbs, an HC and a summit finish on a Cat-1.  Contenders will definately use this stage to separate out the weaker riders, but there may not be much aggressive attacking this early on.  Look for the true Yellow jersey hopefuls to show themselves after this stage and Cantador and Schleck to hammer away at one another all day.

Stage 15: 4 categorized climbs culminating in an HC climb up Port de Bales before a nasty descent into the finish.  Probably another stage to distance the leaders from the pack, but not from one another unless Schleck or Cantador get especially aggressive. 

Stage 16: 2 Cat-1's and 2 HC's (including Col d'Aspin, Col du Tourmalet, and Col d'Aubisque) make this a terrifying stage, but the last climb is nearly 30 miles from the finish, so the field may have time to get back together.  There is a rest day the following day, which could play into how aggressive the general classification riders get. 

Stage 17-21: Come back next week for more.

Another Day, Another Miserable Heartbreak For One Sports Fan

Sports fans love lists. "Greatest Catches," "Best Superbowls," "Worst Draft Picks." And we love hyperbole (see above examples). And I am no exception. So it is not without self-awareness that write that I was thinking earlier about writing about the 5 or 10 worst days in my life as a sports fan.

Certainly one would be August 11, 2005. I assume Carlos Beltran and Mike Cameron would rank this one #1 on their lists. That was the day I was in the right-centerfield bleachers at Petco Park, about as close as anyone else on the planet when those two men blindly dove face-first into one another, ending their seasons and the Mets' hopes for the next five years (and counting...).

The list was a little too depressing to really put into order, so I gave up trying (Shawn Livingston's knee, Danny Manning's knee, Ron Harper's knee, Kenny Rogers' ball four to Andruw Jones, Beltran's strike-out looking against the Cardinals, when I realized Tiki Barber is an asshole, when Edgardo Alfonzo put on someone else's uniform, when Floyd Landis got stripped of the Tour de France, etc.).

Today would have made the list. It might have been #1. But I'll come back to that.

Quite a day Lance Armstrong had today. Not only did he have to worry about literally saving his face because he was involved in a nasty crash in the Tour of California and had to take a bunch of stitches in his elbow and more just below his left eye, but he is also trying to figuratively save face as well, as former teammate Floyd Landis threw Armstrong under the bus as an alleged cheater.

To be honest, I can't imagine Armstrong is all that perturbed about the allegations. He's heard it before. In fact, I would venture that no human being has taken more blood tests in any 10 year period than Lance Armstrong has in the last 10 years. So many people are so sure he's a cheater because his near-miraculous comeback from testicular, lung, and brain cancer to such unimaginable highs has been so...well...miraculous. But despite all the doubts thrown in his face, and all the needles stuck into his veins, he's never failed a single test. Not one. So Lance, please don't make a fool of me for believing in you.

I ran cross country in college and during my freshman year I had to have a surgery that I wasn't really expected to recover fully from. I'd be able to walk and run and exercise and have a normal life, but I wasn't really supposed to be able to compete at that same DI level again. No one ever had, but then not many people had ever had that surgery yet either, so "Why not?" I thought. Of course I never became a NCAA Champion, or a conference champion. I never won another race or ever placed first on my own team. But I ran again, and I was faster than I had been before, and I can tell you without any hyperbole whatsoever that I would not have been able to if Lance Armstrong had not risen from the grave and been winning Tour de France after Tour de France at the same time.

So maybe one day the story will finally break that Armstrong has been cheating us all along. And if so, I don't know what I would think. I couldn’t forgive him for cheating, but I couldn't exactly forget that he had inspired me so deeply either. But I pray that that story never breaks and that until the day after I die all there ever were were allegations and negative tests, because I am just about out of heroes. Especially today.

After Armstrong won his seventh straight Tour and retired, most Americans let professional cycling drift back into anonymity. I think I was lucky that I had found so much love for the sport, not just the man who had carried it on his back through terrain as tricky and tumultuous as anything the Alps ever threw at him. I knew in 2006 that the sport was still in good hands and that there were lots of guys to root for. More importantly, there were lots of Americans to root for. Levi Leipheimer and George Hincapie were (and are) true greats, but that year Floyd Landis was truly spectacular at the Tour de France.

Imagine all those French people who were so incensed that an American had hijacked their race and their sport for most of a decade had to see him retire only to have a parade of new Americans come in ready to take over the family business. And then Landis went out and turned in what I have, on many occasions, called the greatest athletic performance I have ever seen in stage 17 and went on to win it all. Another year, another American. Of course soon after, it was revealed that he had failed a doping test and Landis was stripped of the title. He fought the result for years, took it to the highest authority in the world and lost, and through it all, I steadfastly supported his claims of innocence.

On April 1, 2008, I wrote on this blog, "Floyd Landis finished his appeal to the arbitration court of sports and their decision is expected in June. From what I know of his case, I don't think he did it."

On June 27, 2008, after the test results were upheld, I wrote, "I am a big fan of cycling, and I watched every second of that Tour, and I have read every word of the case against him and the case for him (yes, even the famed slide show presentation). That guy is innocent. I don't care what the test showed on the day he pulled off the greatest turnaround in sports history. The test the day before showed nothing. The test the day after showed nothing, and what Landis is alleged to have done would still show up long after the initial day he allegedly did it. It also would have had no physiological benefit had he done it the morning of a race (it is a long term technique that had not long term presence in his body according to multiple tests)."

On September 10, 2008, I wrote again, "I still feel that Landis was innocent of the charges levied against him...".

So what happened on May 20, 2010 that makes this all relevant again? Why is today such a bad day for me as a sports fan? Because today was that day that after four years of vociferous denials, Landis came clean and revealed that he had been cheating for basically his entire career.

I guess it's easy to be cynical and just assume that they're all cheating. Baseball players, football players, cyclists, sprinters...you name it. It's easy to look at Albert Pujols' seemingly sincere declaration that we can all rely on him to be the clean superstar to lead all of us, a weary mass of doubtful devotees and former fans, back to the glory days of squeaky clean stars and believable box scores. But the more we learn, the less we feel we can believe it, and the more we see that it wasn't all so clean back then anyway; we just didn't have reporters willing to blow the whistle.

Athletes cheat. It's old news; I know. I shouldn't be surprised about Landis; I know. I am the last one to the party; I know. Everyone assumes our heroes are cheats and it's gotten to the point where they don't even bother to pretend to be disgusted when they first find out anymore. Sports fans are jaded. "A-Rod, seemingly the last great, clean baseball star admitted to cheating and lying about it over and over? Hmm. Well, he's my fantasy third baseman and I'm hurting for RBI's this week, so what did he do today?" Reporters are all on the hunt for the next scandal to bring down a star, but fans are just kinda used to it and don't bat an eye.

And as a sometimes-professional sports writer over the past few years, I have tried really hard to not become jaded myself. That's one thing I hate about working in sports...you have to look for angles and stories, you can't just watch the games and enjoy. I was working the day the Mitchell Report was released and I wrote the story up for CBS and created a slideshow of all the big names and local stars named. That was another of the worst days of my sports-fan-life, and there weren't even really any big surprises in it for me. But just that cold realization that THAT many people had been cheating and that it was probably just the tip of the ice berg…that stung me.

We have all seen seen some of our greatest champions (love 'em or hate 'em) toppled and defamed. Some lesser stars but truly beloved figures as well. Mark McGwire, Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Marion Jones, Andre Agassi, Ivan Basso, Ato Boldon, Ken Caminiti, Tyler Hamilton, Paul LoDuca, Erik Zabel, Alex Rodriguez, Rafael Palmeiro, Jan Ullrich, Dennis Mitchell, Tim Montgomery, Alexander Vinokourov, Julius Peppers, Andy Pettitte, Roger Clemens, Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz.

I think what has helped me to keep from becoming completely jaded to all of this was that I hadn't had "my guy" get nailed. It's always been guys I hated (Bonds, Clemens) or just people who were big names, maybe even on my teams, but not my favorites (LoDuca, Vinokourov).

Maybe that's why when I read that SI article, I bought every word Pujols said. Sure athletes cheated, but no one I ever really loved so it never hit too close to home. But today one of "my guys" went down. Big time. And now I'm finally at that place where most fans seem to have been for years now. I don't know where I go from here because one of the ones I truly, truly believed was lying actually all along. Floyd Landis' admission of using performance enhancing drugs changed the way I look at things, and in my mind, added a lot of weight to what Pujols was already carrying.

Even today, Landis still insists that that fateful test back in 2006 was indeed a false-positive (ironically perhaps the only false-positive in a career of false-negatives). He says he did not use that doping method at that time and that the results from that week are not consistent with the results you would expect from someone using that doping method. Maybe that's true. And maybe I can still believe in that utterly spectacular day in Morzine in the Alps. But why should I? Not that he has any idea who I am or that what I have to say matters, but he doesn't deserve my belief in him.

How can we trust him when he says what he did or didn't do? For years, he's lied to protect his his career, so why wouldn't he be lying to protect the single greatest day of it? How can we trust his allegations against Armstrong, Leipheimer, Hincapie, Dave Zabriskie, Johan Brunyeel and the rest of the U.S. Postal/Discovery/Astana/Radio Shack family? Are these the words of a man finally coming clean or the words of a man trying to tear down his former teammates who had turned their backs on him in his failed comeback because he was a cheater?

All I know is that I lost, once and for all, one of my greatest heroes today. And I was one of the last people who still believed in him. And that's sad. He lied all that time and he made me a liar. And that's infuriating.

I can't imagine I could ever get to the point where I would actually, finally, give up on sports. My love affair runs far too deep. But I hate the idea that I am a revelation or two away from having to give on sportsmen. So Albert Pujols and Lance Armstrong, the clock is ticking. I figure I have about a half-a-century left to keep what may be the illusion that it is possible to be great and be clean. If you two are making me a liar too, just make sure they wait till I'm gone to publish the story.

The Tour Hits The Home Stretch

It would seem that the Tour de France is basically a race for third place at this point. Alberto Cantador has basically sewn up his second overall win in three years, and Andy Schleck has basically claimed 2nd (as well as the white best-young-rider jersey). Thor Hushovd ended the chase for the green sprinters/points jersey. Franco Pellizotti has ended the climb for the polka dot king of the mountains jersey. And Astana has pretty much but the team time race to bed as well. And I am running away with my fantasy group on Versus.com. But any of five men could potentially fill that third place spot on the podium in Paris on Sunday.

Or is it all that cut and dry? As we have seen, the most innocent looking crashes can occur on the easiest of stages, and can knock major contenders out in an instant (Levi Leipheimer). Not to mention that there are serious dangers on these roads that can lead to horrific crashes that could shake up the standings (Jens Voigt - pictured). But aside from a crash ruining the fun in these last four stages, how safe are the jersey-wearers?

It appears that Cantador is a lock to win it all. He widened his overall gap to 2:26 on Wednesday and has shown that he has the legs (if not the strategic expertise or teamsmanship) to out do any man on the climbs. And while he isn't the absolute best time trialist and may lose a little time to a few men on Thursday, he is excellent in that discipline and has provided himself with a massive cushion regardless. Put it in the bank: Cantador wins.

Andy Schleck finds himself in 2nd overall and should not have any trouble hanging onto that position. His closest rival is his brother/teammate Frank (:59 behind him) so there is no cause for concern there. Behind Frank is Lance Armstrong who has shown that he does have the power to plow through these climbs, but keeps being left out on quick accelerations...which Andy Schleck does well if need be on Saturday on Mont Ventoux. Plus, he has 1:19 on Armstrong and 2:18 on Andreas Kloden (5th), and 2:27 on time trial threat Bradley Wiggins (6th).

Frank Schleck in third won't attack his own brother (more because he's a teammate than a brother probably) to try to move up into 2nd, but his hold on third in Paris is only tenuous. He has shown great strength and has ridden beautifully through the first 2+ weeks, but he holds just :30 on Lance Armstrong and that is not a strong position with a time trial and brutal mountain stage remaining. Kloden is 1:19 back and Wiggins is 1:28, and both of them are threats to move up as well. By comparison, in the stage 1 time trial in Monaco, Wiggins beat Frank Schleck by 1:19, and that course was not as well-suited to Wiggins' style as the one on Thursday is. The race for third could easily be divided by 10-15 seconds among five men as they take on Mont Ventoux on the last real stage of the Tour.

Thor Hushovd rode an inspired race in stage 17, both tactically and physically. With his small lead in the green jersey competition in peril with two potential field sprints remaining, and Mark Cavendish having shown that he cannot be beaten in such a competition, Hushovd simply took the sprints out of the equation by surging ahead on a Cat 1 climb and descent, catching and passing a breakaway full of pure climbers. He put up to 2:00 between himself and the nearest man, taking wins at both of stage 17's sprint checkpoints and even winning a climb during his solo breakaway (before sitting up and actually taking a Coke from his team car as he waited for the field to catch him, his job done).

Pellizotti likely ended the king of the mountains chase in stage 16 when he got into yet another breakaway (a daily occurrence for Pellizotti) and took maximum points over both of the day's climbs. Astana took over the team time lead in stage 15 before doubling their lead to just over two-and-a-half minutes in stage 16. They then added nearly 14 minutes to the lead in stage 17, no thanks to Cantador's inexplicable attack on the final climb that pre-empted a move planned for Kloden. Vincenzo Nibali has kept the race for the best young rider competition respectable (2:43 behind Schleck through stage 17), but he hasn't shown that he can keep up with Schleck, let alone take that much time away from him over these last few stages.

Looking ahead, Fabian Cancellara is a big favorite to win the time trial on Thursday, just as he did in stage 1 in Monaco. Cancellara is over an hour-and-a-half behind the leaders though and is of no concern. All eyes will be on Wiggins (6th overall) who was third in stage 1, losing 1 second to Cantador but beating each of his other rivals for the podium in Paris by as much as 80 seconds.

Stage 19 looks like a possible bunch sprint where the leaders will not bother to attack one another at all (just one Cat. 2 climb and two Cat. 4's.) and will rest on their time gains from the time trial. That sets up a potential classic on Saturday's penultimate stage with four moderate climbs culminating in the Highest Category climb to an uphill finish on Mont Ventoux. No lead is really safe on this climb as an agressive rider who is able to break away from the pack of leaders could easily take 2-3 minutes out of the group on that climb alone. And stage 21 will likely be Cantador's coronation through the streets of Paris as Cavendish bolts one last time for a stage win.

Contenders:
1. Alberto Cantador
2. Andy Schleck +2:26
3. Frank Schleck +3:25
4. Lance Armstrong +3:55
5. Andreas Kloden +4:44
6. Bradley Wiggins +4:53
7. Vincenzo Nibali +5:09

Tour De France Rest Day Recap II

Stages 1-9: Astana Dominating On The Roads And In The Papers
Lance Armstrong's Team Astana dominated the Tour de France in all senses for the first 10 days. They had four men in the top 6 through the first 9 stages, and were all the talk in between races because of the supposed fireworks going off within the team. Was there ever really any question whether Armstrong or Spaniard Alberto Cantador was the team leader or was it all conjecture by the media? Or did the Astana gand prop up the story to their competitors in the dark as to the team's plans? For the early part of the race, Armstrong and Cantador both looked like they had the form to win it all, and their team seemed bullerproof enough to send either man (and possibly two others) to the podium in Paris.

Stage 10: The Radios Weren't The Only Things Turned Off
The International Cycling Union is the sports governing body and in their infinite wisdom, they decided to experiment with not allowing managers to talk to riders during a race via radios during the most important event in the sport. It's kinda like if the NFL tried out a new rule where the sidelines couldn't give any hand signals to the players during the 2nd quarter of the Super Bowl. Yes, there are professional sports where coaches do not communicate with players and it can work fine (tennis), but why bother test it out here?

Stage 10 was to be the first of two stages that would be run without radios and 14 of the 20 teams signed a petition asking for the decision to be reversed. It wasn't and in a moderate show of protest, the riders simply took the day off. They rode the course, but the wild attacks and aggressive riding expected from the radio-free riders were nowhere to be found. It was a complete snoozer to the point where the UCI admitted their mistake and decided to allow the radios to be used in stage 13.

The one interesting thing that did happen was that as the peloton all cross the finish line in a giant pack, at one point there was a slight gap between two packs in the same group...maybe a half of a second's worth. In an amazingly arbitrary and unfair ruling, the race referee decided that this one-bike-length-gap constituted a break in the peloton and awarded different times to the two groups (everyone in a group at the finish gets the same time as the person in the front of the group to protect riders from over-aggressive riding among 100 or more riders piled up at the finish). This caught major contenders American Levi Leipheimer and Brit Bradley Wiggins out and they lost 15 seconds on the lead, dropping from 4th to 5th and from 5th to 7th, respectively. The ruling was quickly reversed the next day after all 20 teams complained and the referree decided to review the tape.

Stages 11-13: Green, Polka Dot Jerseys Change Hands; Yellow, White Stay Put
The battle for the green jersey (sprint points) Brit Mark Cavendish and Norwegian Thor Hushovd took center stage as the Tour traveled back down out of the Pyrenees and into the flat transitional stages in central France before they head back up into the Alps. American first-timer Tyler Farrar nearly outfoxed Cavenish at the line in stage 11, but Cavendish's kick proved too strong as he won his 3rd stage of the Tour. Hushovd finished 5th in the stage.

The flat stage didn't go completely as planned as Leipheimer went down in a seemingly innocent crash in the final 2 miles, but broke his wrist and was unable to start the next morning for stage 12. Besides his own ambitions, this is a tough blow for Armstrong, Cantador, and Astana, for whom Leipheimer is a great supporter. For those who were able to go in stage 12, it was a day for the breakaway as seven men survived in front of the peloton over the six category 3 and 4 climbs in this not-so-flat flat stage. Cavendish once again out-sprinted the pack to widen his yellow jersey lead and Team Saxo Bank took over the team-time lead thanks to Nikki Sorenson picking up almost six minutes on the peloton in his solo win.

Stage 13 might actually have been an explosive stage if the riders were not allowed radios like initially planned. With a category 1 climb, two Cat 2's, and 2 Cat 3's, it would have been unlikely for the peloton to servive together without the scouting that team cars provide. As it was, Astana continued to push the pace through (as they have for most of the Tour), but kept their cards close to the vest by not attacking. Saxo Bank made a quick attack on the Cat 1 up Col du Platzerwasel, but it was more of a heat-check than anything. Once the move was countered by basically every contender on ever team, Andy Schleck and Saxo Bank cooled back down and the peloton regathered for the final 40 miles-or-so.

Hushovd was able to get into a breakaway and finish 6th in stage 13. As it is quite unusual for a sprinter for go in in a break, he gained 15 points on Cavendish and took the green jersey. Italian Franco Pellizotti took over the king-of-the-mountains crown from Spaniard Egoi Martinez as well, but the team time lead stayed with Saxo Bank and the leaderboard remained unchanged once again (Italian Rinaldo Nocentini in yellow and German Tony Martin in white).

Stage 14: American Revolution
As seems to be the pattern for this Tour, what was supposed to be a run-off-the-mill flat stage wound up providing the most sparks of any stage perhaps in years. With only two moderate Cat 3 climbs, everyone knew there would be a breakaway and what remained to be seen was who would get into it and how much time the contending teams would allow them to gain. The breakaway went early and the biggest name in the bunch was the current patriarch of American cycling, George Hincapie (5:25 off the lead entering the stage) of the American team Columbia.

A little back-story: Hincapie was once the right hand man of Lance Armstrong on Discovery and U.S. Postal Service and helped deliver all seven of his Tour wins. His manager with those teams is Armstrong's manger currently with Astana. Hincapie is one of the most respected and well-liked riders by fans, the press, and other riders. His current team, Columbia, has something of a rivalrly with the other major American squad, Garmin. Hincapie is not a threat to contend for the next seven stages, so even if he were to make up all 5:25 and take over, it is no real concern to any of the general classification contenders.

As the breakaway's lead reached around four minutes, Team Astana took the reigns of the peloton, controlling the pace and allowing the breakaway to extend their lead, but at a controlled pace - not so much that they'd get away and Hincapie would wind up with a huge lead overall, but not so little that anyone else would be tempted to make their own attack. As the lead approached nine minutes, Astana peeled away from the front of the peloton and let AG2R make a last play to hang onto their man's yellow jersey. When it looked like AG2R would not have the firepower to get the breakaway back inside the gap needed to keep Nocentini in the overall lead, Garmin jumped in to help the pacemaking, essentially fighting for no reason to keep Hincapie out of the yellow jersey (in perhaps his last Tour de France)! Hincapie wound up finishing just 5 seconds short of the overall lead.

Later, Garmin team officials would say that it was a strategic move intended to protect the overall hopes of their men American Christian Vandevelde and Wiggins, but it is no secret that Hincapie will likely lose 20 minutes or more once they hit the Alps, so that argument doesn't hold water. Hincapie was extremely upset after the race, blaming his friends at Astana and fellow Americans at Garmin for taking the jersey away for no good reason, but ultimately Astana let Hincapie to stretch his lead out by five minutes while they were in charge of the pace-setting. Bruyneel actually went so far as to say that stretegically, they would have prefered Hincapie to take over yellow and have Columbia to have to defend it. Will Hincapie, Columbia, or anyone loyal to him take revenge on Garmin in later stages?

Stage 15: Cantador Puts The Controversy To Bed
When he made a bold attack on a climb early in the Tour and stole less than 20 seconds from Armstrong, we wondered if Cantador was feeling vulnerable and attacked to protect himself. We wondered if this would provoke Armstrong into finding that gear that seemingly only he has. We wondered if the move was really as dominant as it appeared of if the rest of the contenders had let it go since it was so late in the day and so early in the Tour, they wouldn't lose much time anyway. Cantador answered all those questions, and all the ones about who was the Astana leader with an absolutly dominant charge up the first Cat 1 Alps climb of the Tour.

Asked about their strategy on this first Alpine stage, Armstrong and Bruyneel both joked before the stage that we would see something special that day. "We have a little plan," Bruyneel said with a smile. It seems now that Astana knew all along that Cantador was the stronger man, but they dangled Armstrong, with his fearsome reputation and massive media appeal, in front of the rest of the field as a distraction. When the time came, Armstrong fought off attacks from Saxo Bank and Garmin before seemingly telling Cantador it was time to go, and boy did he go!

Like a canon shot, Cantador put a gap between himself and his chief rivals so fast that even the explosive climbing legs of Andy Schleck couldn't keep up. Cantador blew through the straggling breakway riders on the climb up Verbier in Switzerland and launched himself right onto the top step of the podium in Paris next week. In the end, he stole away the yellow jersey, and gained 43 seconds on Schleck, who finished second, as the standings were completely rewritten. Armstrong looked beaten as he struggled to remain in contact up the final climb but was able to move up into 2nd place overall, with Wiggins, teammate Andreas Kloden, and Schleck now breathing down his neck. And while he missed the initial charge up the final climb and found himself in a huge defecit, defending champion Carlos Sastre finished the climb faster than even Cantador and is something of a dark-horse podium threat in 11th place.

As for the jerseys, in the end Astana assumed control of the team time lead; Cantador of course took yellow; Hushovd snuck back into green; Andy Schleck took over in white; Pellizotti remained in polka dots.

Leaders:
1. CONTADOR Alberto (Spain), Team Astana
2. ARMSTRONG Lance (USA), Team Astana, +01' 37"
3. WIGGINS Bradley (UK), Garmin - Slipstream, +01' 46"
4. KLÖDEN Andréas (Germany), Team Astana, +02' 17"
5. SCHLECK Andy (Luxembourg), Team Saxo Bank, +02' 26"
6. NOCENTINI Rinaldo (Italy), AG2R-La Mondiale, +02' 30"
7. NIBALI Vincenzo (Italy), Liquigas, +02' 51"
8. MARTIN Tony (Germany), Team Columbia-HTC, +03' 07"
9. LE MEVEL Christophe (France), Francaise Des Jeux, +03' 09"
10. SCHLECK Frank (Luxembourg), Team Saxo Bank, +03' 25"

Other Notables
11. SASTRE Carlos (Spain), Cervelo Test Team, +03' 52"
12. VANDEVELDE Christian (USA), Garmin-Slipstream, +03' 59"
13. HINCAPIE George (USA), Team Columbia-HTC, +04' 05"
14. EVANS Cadel (Australia), Silence-Lotto, +04' 27"
29. MENCHOV Denis (Russia), Rabobank, +11' 23"

Tour De France Rest Day Recap

Stages 1-3
As expected, Fabian Cancellara won the stage 1 individual time trial and his Saxo Bank squad worked to protect his overall lead for the first few stages, and stage 2 ended with a bunch sprint won by the world's best sprinter, Mark Cavendish. None of the major contenders had stuck their necks out and were content to wait to the high mountains before testing their opponents. Stage 3 saw a bit of a shake-up as the peloton got split in two on a windy day along the Mediterranean, with only Lance Armstrong finding a place in the front half of the split among the contenders. Armstrong vaulted from 10th to 2nd overall, with teammate and Tour favorite Alberto Cantador just 19 seconds back in third place. Cavendish won the sprint finish in stage 3 as well.

Stage 4 - Team Time Trial

While the yellow jersey is awarded to the individual with the fastest overall time, he cannot win it without the support of his team. This idea was never more evident than in stage 4 when Cadel Evans dropped to 2:59 behind the leaders and 35th place overall because his team was not strong enough to keep pace with the top teams. Evans' hopes for a Tour victory all-but vanished just four days in, and before they even got a glimpse of their first mountain. Other contenders, such as Denis Menchov (crashed - 72nd +3:52), defending champion Carlos Sastre (29th +2:44), and Andy Schleck (20th +1:44) lost huge chunks of time as Team Astana (pictured) rolled to top times at each time check, including the finish.

Garmin-Slipstream had the best race of the day, going out so fast that they dropped four of their nine teammates around 1/3 of the way through the course. With only five remaining riders in a race against the clock that doesn't stop until your fifth rider crosses the finish line, Garmin gained time on every other team in the field but Astana, vaulting Brits Bradley Wiggins and David Millar into 6th and 10th, and Americans David Zabriskie and Christian Vandevelde into 9th and 12th overall.

Astana mopped up on the field, placing riders in 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 7th, and 11th in the overall standings and pulling Armstrong into a virtual tie with Cancellara for the overall lead (Cancellara held on by 22 hundredths-of-a-second after 10 hours, 38 minutes of racing).

Stages 5-6: No Change At The Top

With so many riders losing so much time in the team time trial, and with the Pyrenees looming in stage 7, this was the last chance for many riders to steal a few minutes from the leaders by getting into breakaways. The expression goes that the no one wins the Tour de France in the early stages, but they can lose it. So the big contenders were content to let the breakaways go and to only chase them down when the gaps got big enough to shake up the top of the leader board.

The field let Aussie David Millar go in stage 5 and after escaping a breakaway pack with about 15 miles remaining; he actually extended his lead on the field while riding solo. Millar started the day just 1:07 behind the yellow jersey, so eventually the peloton took notice of his attack and slowed reeled him in before finally catching him with only a little over .5 mile remaining. This was the first day that the Tour fought through rain and it played a huge role, with many crashes slowing the field down allowing Millar to escape in the first place.

Frenchman Thomas Voeckler (pictured) was able to do in stage 7 what Millar had been unable to do to stage 6. Voeckler got into a breakaway group early on and finally went solo. Voeckler started the day nearly 7 minutes behind Cancellara for the yellow jersey, so the chase was not as intense and he lived to win the stage, holding off the peloton by just :07.

Stage 7: Let The Games Begin

The press had been making news of the supposed rift among the members of Team Astana for months: who would the team support, Armstrong or Cantador? The riders themselves had been saying all the right things: it was Cantador's team to lose, Armstrong is a great champion, we are all professionals and there is no rift, etc. On the roads, the team seemed unified as well. Where was this rift? Armstrong had quietly moved ahead of Cantador three days earlier in a lucky break and there had been no change among the other leaders in four days, but this year's longest stage, stage 7, would take the Tour to its third highest peak ever, finishing at the top of Arcalis in Andorra - it would be a the perfect chance for the Astana battle to go up a notch, and for forgotten contenders to make some noise.

For the first time, Cancellara faltered, falling from the top spot as Team Astana ruthlessly pushed the pace for nearly the entire stage 7, taking the wind out of the sails of any possible attackers. When Schleck or Evans or Sastre moved to the front of the peloton, Armstrong, Cantador, Levi Leipheimer, and Andreas Kloden were quick to defend their team's dominant position. Finally Cantador was the one to make a successful attack, surging away from the pack in the stage's final mile. While it looked like Armstrong could have answered and kept with him, he instead stayed back and to force his rivals to go after his teammate's surprise move - he wouldn't do the work for them.

Armstrong surrendered 21 seconds to his teammate, dropping to third behind new leader Rinaldo Nocentini (who had survived in a breakaway to take the overall lead by 6 seconds, pictured) and Cantador (who now led Armstrong by 2 seconds). Cantador had broken many unwritten rules of conduct by attacking his own teammates who had been doing the pace-setting. According to teammate Leipheimer, the surprise move was Cantador's own idea, and not part of the team strategy. Armstrong, always the professional, had supported his surging teammate on the road by fighting off attackers for him, and afterwards would not bite at probing questions about the team's mindset.

Stage 8-9: Here Come The Contenders

After Cantador's sudden bolt into the lead of Astana, the team insisted that there were no problems in the clubhouse, so to speak. Armstrong said, "Even if there were some hurt feelings, we're gonna do out job. We're all professionals." After a team meeting before stage 8, Astana manager Johan Bruyneel said that he had addressed Cantador's move and that there was some tension but that they'd do their jobs. Reading between the lines, it wasn't clear who the team supported (Cantador who seemed to have the better legs, or Armstrong who seemed to be in the right), but it was clear that there was officially a problem with the team.

With Astana suddenly in apparent turmoil, it seemed that the remaining two day in the Pyrenees would be filled with attacks from contenders, even if it was earlier in the Tour than most had probably planned to make any moves. Evans made an early move in stage 8 to get into a breakaway along with a few other big names (Zabriskie, Vladimir Efimkin, Thor Hushovd, George Hincapie, Cancellara, Juan Antonio Flecha, and Egoi Martinez), but Astana refused to let them go until Evans dropped out of the pack. He did, and off they went. Schleck attacked on the final climb of the day but was quickly answered by Armstrong and Astana.

Eventually, a select group of 11 riders (Armstrong, Cantador, Schleck, Frank Schleck, Evans, Kloden, Wiggins, Vandevelde, Sastre, Leipheimer, and Menchov) climbed away from the peloton and caught the breakaway. Having established their strength, the leaders allowed the yellow jersey and peloton to catch back up and finished together after a long descent.

Stage 9 shaped up nearly identically, with a long descent late, allowing the field to reassemble after separating out in the early climbs. Armstrong led Astana in running down dangerous early moves as they neared the climb up Col du Tourmalet (the 4th highest peak in Tour history) which is a 10.6 mile Highest Category climb up to 6939 ft. AG2R set the pace in protecting the yellow jersey of their man, Nocentini, and there were no major moves from any of the main contenders as they all finished with the same time once again.

Stage 10: A Hush Falls Over The Crowd

The Tour de France has decided to not allow teams to use radio communication between team cars and riders in stages 10 and 13, a decision that hasn't been well received among all the teams and riders. Supposedly Bruyneel has a petition signed by at least 14 of the 20 teams asking for the radios to be allowed or they will boycott the stages. Garmin's manager Matt White says that having no radio is not that big an issue in reality because their use is relatively new anyway. Garmin was one of the teams that did not sign the petition.

Assuming the stage goes off as planned, and assuming there is any attacking whatsoever, look for veteran riders who may have raced in the days before radios to take advantage of younger men. It is a flat stage and should not cause any shake-up of the contenders, but the radio-situation could be quite a wild-card. It is also Bastille Day so a betting man would be wise to put money on a Frenchman (Voeckler in particular) to make a breakaway for the stage win.

Stages 10-15 are all relatively flat stages and there is not likely to be much change in the leader board, nor much news from the Astana camp until at least when they hit the Alps in stage 16.

Leaders

1. NOCENTINI Rinaldo (Italy), AG2R-La Mondiale, 34h 24' 21"

2. CONTADOR Alberto (Spain), Astana, + 00' 06"

3. ARMSTRONG Lance (USA), Astana, + 00' 08"

4. LEIPHEIMER Levi (USA), Astana, + 00' 39"

5. WIGGINS Bradley (UK), Garmin-Slipstream, + 00' 46"

6. KLÖDEN Andréas (Germany), Astana, + 00' 54"

7. MARTIN Tony (Germany), Team Columbia - HTC, + 01' 00"

8. VANDEVELDE Christian (USA), Garmin-Slipstream, + 01' 24"

9. SCHLECK Andy (Luxembourg), Saxo Bank, + 01' 49"

10. NIBALI Vincenzo (Italy), Liquigas, + 01' 54"

Other Notables

13. SCHLECK Frank (Luxembourg), Saxo Bank, + 02' 25"

16. SASTRE Carlos (Spain), Cervelo, + 02' 52"

18. EVANS Cadel (Australia), Silence-Lotto, + 03' 07"

27. MENCHOV Denis (Russia), Rabobank, + 05' 02"

28. HINCAPIE George (USA), Team Columbia - HTC, + 05' 25"

69. ZABRISKIE David (USA), Garmin-Slipstream, + 29' 50"

Lance Is Poised To Take Over Tour Lead

The first two stages of the Tour de France seemed to go just according to plan for most teams. Astana had four men in the top 10 overall, with Alberto Cantador planted firmly as their leader. Fabian Cancellara had out-descended the field on the roads back down into Monaco and taken hold of the yellow jersey after the stage 1 individual time trial. Columbia had set up their slingshot and fired Mark Cavendish to the stage win in a bunch sprint in stage 2. All of the major players (Cantador, Lance Armstrong, Levi Leipheimer, Denis Menchov, Carlos Sastre, Cadel Evans, Andy Schleck, etc.) were among the elite on the overall list, and none had suffered any setbacks in the crashes on the first day on the open roads. Stage 1 saw the time trialists shine. Stage 2 saw the sprinters gets their shots. No surprises.

It was so predictable that Astana's team manager Johan Bruyneel basically decided before the race in what position his big four would finish overall. Armstrong took the course before the others and claimed the top overall time. Next came Leipheimer who bettered him by a few seconds and took over the overall lead. Next was Andreas Kloden who did the same. And finally Cantador took his place at the top of the Astana ladder, in second place overall - close enough to strike, but without having the wear a yellow target on his back for the next 20 races.

Stage 3 looked like it would work out according to plan as well - another long, flat, hot stage in the south of France where the sprinters would fight it out in the end, but no time would be gained or lost by the leaders. The flat stretch that finished the stage would keep the pace fast but comfortable, and the relatively straight run in to the finish would keep everyone upright. We'd have to wait for Tuesday's team time trial and the mountain stages to come for any shake-ups among the leaders.

Team Columbia began setting up their catch of the four breakaway riders by trading off who would push the pace at the front, protecting Mark Cavendish who would be led in to the final kilometer to bolt out for the stage win. It was all so ordinary.

Then the wind kicked up.

In the blink of an eye, Columbia's pace setting suddenly broke the peloton into pieces as they fought a cross-wind. But certainly the major contenders would either notice the break and get into it, or realize it was not a threat and let it go. Certainly Astana or Saxo Bank would not let any contenders sneak away. Certainly Quick Step or Garmin would not let Columbia's Cavendish get too easy of a sprint win. Right?

Within moments, the entire 9-man Columbia team, including Cavendish and overall contenders Tony Martin, Kim Kirchen and Michael Rogers, had broken the race open. Lance Armstrong was the only serious contender not on Columbia to make it into the break (along with two teammates). Saxo Bank couldn't lead the charge to reel them in because even though their man Andy Schleck was left out, Cancellara had made the break and they didn't want to attack their own teammate. Neither could Astana, choosing to let Armstrong get time back on many of his rivals, but possibly creating more problems down the line as Armstrong pulled himself ahead of team leader Cantador by the end.

One predictable thing eventually happened: Cavendish out-sprinted the field for the win (the sprinters had been thinned down to really just him and Thor Hushovd). The top two overall spots remained in Cancellara's and Martin's grasps, but Armstrong had leap-frogged six men up to 3rd place, Cantador now 19 second behind him. Linus Gerdemann and Maxime Montfort jumped into 7th and 9th, respectively, and Levi Leipheimer dropped to 10th, now 1:11 back of the lead.

Thus far the race is being dominated by Germans (2nd, 6th, 7th) and Americans (3rd, 10th, 13th, 17th), with Astana still leading the team-time competition (also in 3rd, 4th, 6th and 10th overall) and Columbia close on their heels (1:46 back with men in 2nd, 9th, 11th, and 13th). Cancellara still leads overall over Martin (:33) and Armstrong (:40). Martin leads the best young rider classification, and Cavendish appears to be running away with the points classification.

Tuesday is the team time trial, and as I wrote last week, afterwards the yellow jersey will likely be worn by a major contender. Columbia needs to gain 33 seconds on Saxo Bank to put Martin in yellow. Astana needs to gain 40 seconds on Saxo Bank and just 7 seconds on Columbia for Armstrong to be back in yellow once again, which will certainly ramp up the controversy about who that team is supporting (though we only seem to see or hear that controversy in the media, not among the riders themselves).

Silence Lotto could see Evans take over the lead if there is a major shake-up, but Astana and Armstrong are by far the most likely to take over if Saxo Bank and Cancellara are going to drop from the top spot.

2009 Tour de France For Dummies

The 2009 Tour de France starts Saturday, July 4 in Monaco and in anticipation of this spectacular event, here is a two part explanation of the race, the riders, and the storylines to watch for over the next three-and-a-half weeks.

-Storylines to Watch-
Lance is Back American Lance Armstrong retired from professional cycling in 2005 after winning an unprecedented seven Tours de France in-a-row. In order to bolster his Livestrong campaign against cancer, last year he decided to come out of retirement and raise the profile of both his crusade, and of the sports of cycling...and possibly take home some hardware in the process. Armstrong joined powerhouse Team Astana which already boasted the world's best current stage racer (Alberto Cantador) and America's best rider (Levi Leipheimer) as well. After recovering from a broken collarbone suffered in a crash earlier this year, Armstrong is back in good form and it a contender for the overall title as long as he shows he is the strongest of his teammates and can win their support.

Former Greats Fall Short of Redemption Once upon a time, Ivan Basso was the chief rival to Armstrong and Jan Ulrich. After receiving a two-year ban for admitting that he had been planning to blood dope (did you read that Bud Selig?), he returned this year and joined Liquigas but was not chosen as one of their Tour de France riders this year. American Floyd Landis was stripped of the 2006 Tour de France title for allegedly doping. Landis had a hip replaced, served out his two-year ban, and returned early this season as well. But he was unable to land a spot on a premier team and his California-based Ouch! Racing failed to be selected for this Tour. Former American national champ and Olympic gold medalist Tyler Hamilton decided to retire when caught using steroids and was then hit with an eight-year ban since he'd already served a two-year ban for blood doping (which he denies). Sprinter Tom Boonen was booted from this Tour after a third positive cocaine test outside of the racing season. (Update: Boonen was reinstated the day before the Tour started and is riding for Quickstep). Another former Armstrong-rival, Alexander Vinokourov, retired when he got a one-year ban when caught blood doping at the 2007 Tour de France. After deciding to unretire, his case was reopened and he was ordered to serve out the standard two-year ban, so he will also miss the 2009 Tour. Vino's doping in 2007 was a key reason for Team Astana not being invited to the 2008 Tour, keeping returning champ Cantador out of the race at no fault of his own.

Course Favors Climbers Armstrong stated that this year's course offers a great advantage to climbers which makes for wonderful theater as the racers turn themselves inside out trying to summit Alpine and Pyranean peaks in the quest for their sports' greatest glory.

As Long As They Don't All Kill Eachother... Team Astana features three of the races top names, and top contenders for the overall title. Their loyalty to their teammates and their respect for the sport's traditions will be tested as two of them will be forced to swallow their pride to carry their teammate to victory. But which one?

More Reasons For The French To Hate Us As if having the all-time greatest Tour de France rider being an ugly American wasn't bad enough, now he's back and they just can't seem to pin any cheating on him! And now there are as many of five Americans with decent chances to win it all - Armstrong, Leipheimer, David Zabriskie, Christian Vandevelde, and Danny Pate. For the second straight year, there are also two American teams as well - Garmin-Slipstream, and Columbia-High Road.

Radio Silence For the first time in decades, riders will compete in two stages (10 and 13) without the benefit of radio communication with team managers in chase cars with GPS information, time gaps, etc. Look for veteran riders to try and take advantage, particularly on the hilly stage 13, where small pockets of riders or indivuduals could easily slip away from the peleton if their don't have their head count right. The wiley Jens Voigt is a common favorite to make a bold move under these circumstances, which may be exactly why he doesn't bother.

What's With The Polka Dots? Six awards are given out at the Tour de France: The Yellow jersey is awarded daily to the overall leader (based on total time) - also known as the General Classification or GC. The Green jersey is awarded daily to the overall leader in sprint points (each stage has a few checkpoints where points are awarded to the first three riders to cross, as well as at the finish line) - also known as the Points Classification. The Polka Dot jersey is awarded daily to the overall top climber (points are awarded at the summits of each climb - the higher the climb and the later in a stage it occurs, the more points are awarded) - also known as the King of the Mountains Classification. The White jersey is awarded daily to the overall leader who is 25-years-old or younger - also known as the Best Young Rider Classification. The team with the fastest overall time at the end of the Tour wins the Team Time title - times are counted by adding up the times of the three fastest team members each day. And a Most Aggressive Rider jersey is awarded daily based on the previous day's stage (signified by white numbers on red, as opposed to black numbers on white like all other riders).

The Rundown This 96th Tour has 21 stages and covers approximately 2200 miles of road through six countries (Monaco, France, Spain, Andorra, Switzerland, and Italy), with two rest days. It runs from July 4th to July 26th. There are 10 flat stages, eight mountain stages, two individual time trials, and a team time trial. Three stages finish on the summits of climbs. There are 20 Highest Category ("HC"), Category 1, or 2 climbs, with the highest point reached being the summit of Col de Grand-Saint Bernard at 8113 feet during Stage 16. Climbs are categorized based on difficulty, as determined by the steepness (grade) and length of a climb.

-Riders To Watch-
Alberto Cantador (Spain) - Team Astana Generally considered the best stage race cyclist in the world, Cantador is the odds-on favorite. He has won every Grand Tour (like golf's Majors and tennis' Grand Slams) he has entered since winning the '07 Tour de France, and is riding very well right now. He will need to show his dominance early on to prove that he is the man to support for his Astana teammates and management. Cycling teams are designed to have a leader that gets protected by the other eight riders. Generally, they know going in who they will support and while Cantador is considered the strongest rider, the team almost has to be a little split considering who else is in the Astana stable.

Lance Armstrong (USA) - Team Astana While not a prohibitive favorite like he was the last few times he was in the Tour, Armstrong is on the short list of riders with a very good chance to win it all. If Cantador falters, crashes, or Armstrong comes out in completely dominating fashion early on, he could wrest control of the team away from Cantador. This could end in an unprecedented eighth Tour win, or it could shatter the team into pieces, costing them more than just the general classification title as well as shots at the other titles (and huge pay-days). Armstrong is a fan favorite and is a close friend and ally of team manager Johan Bruyneel, but this is Cantador's team (and Tour) to lose.

Andy Schleck (Luxembourg) - Team Saxo Bank Last year's Young Rider champion, the younger Schleck brother is still only 24 but is a serious threat for the GC title this year if he can keep himself from having that one bad day that knocks him out of it. Like Cantador and Armstrong, he is an exceptional climber and time trialist, and he has a deep team that can help protect him (particularly with older brother Frank, Voigt, and Fabian Cancellara).

Carlos Sastre (Spain) - Cervelo Test Team The 2008 Tour was considered a weaker field due to some doping suspensions and the organizers holding Astana out, and Sastre's win is considered a bit flukey due to his perhaps lucky timing on the ride up Alpe d' Huez. But a Tour de France champion he is, and he will be wearing #1 on his hip no matter what the critics might say. Sastre jumped ship from CSC-Saxo Bank to take the helm at the new Cervelo team and while that eliminates the competition at the top of the team, it also eliminates the protection he felt at the helm of such a deep squad.

Cadel Evans (Australia) - Silence-Lotto Evans has clearly been the most consistent rider in the Tour de France in Armstrong's absense, but doesn't have any hardware to show for it. Since his first Tour in 2005 when he finished 8th, he improved in 2006 to 5th, and was the runner up in 2007 and 2008 by under a minute each time. Evans' team is not as strong as Astana or Saxo Bank but he does have Sebastian Lang and Johan Van Summeren to support him (if Van Summeren isn't the leader).

Denis Menchov (Russia) - Rabobank Menchov is often considered not an overall favorite at the Tour because he is unspectacular...he isn't the best in any one discipline. But he just dominated the Giro d'Italia against most of the same field using his steady, solid style. He may not dominate, but he can certainly hang around long enough to win.

Levi Leipheimer (USA) - Team Astana The forgotten star on the three headed monster that is Astana, Leipheimer has taken a backseat to the dominance of Cantador and the notoriety of Armstrong, but this team could just as easily be his depending perhaps on how things go in stage 1 and stage 7. Leipheimer is also an exceptional time trialist and can hang with many of the best climbers, though isn't considered an elite climber himself.

Mark Cavendish (UK) - Columbia-High Road With his absoluletly dominant sprint speed, his expectation of finishing the Tour (somewhat unusual for sprinters), and the absense of Boonen, Cavendish has a very good chance of topping his 2008 Tour performance where he won 4 stages. Cavendish's sprinting is so dominant and his climbing is so adequate that he is even a distant contender for GC (very, very distant). He'd likely be happier wearing Green in Paris anyway, and seeing teammates Michael Rogers or Kim Kirchen in Yellow anyway.

Alejandro Valverde (Spain) - Caisse d-Epargne Banned. The Italian Olympic committee banned this team leader and GC favorite from competing in Italy and since the Tour goes onto Italian soil in stage 16, Valverde is out. He placed in the top 10 in GC for the last two Tours.

Christian Vandevelde (USA) - Garmin-Slipstream 2008 Yellow jersey 5th place
Kim Kirchen (Luxembourg) - Columbia-High Road 2008 Yellow jersey 8th place
David Zabriskie (USA) - Garmin-Slipstream 2009 US National Champion
David Moncoutie (France) - Confidis Le Credit En Ligne Great climber, top French hope
Oscar Freire (Spain) - Rabobank 2008 Green jersey winner
Thor Hushovd (Norway) - Cervelo Test Team 2008 Green jersey runner up
Danny Pate (USA) - Garmin-Slipstream Distant GC hopeful
Tyler Farrar (USA) - Garmin-Slipstream Top American sprinter, one of Cavendish's biggest threats
George Hincapie (USA) - Columbia-High Road Top support for Rogers/Kirchen, an all-time great American cyclist
Fabian Cancellara (Switzerland) - Team Saxo Bank A master time trialist, he will likely go for the yellow jersey in stage 1 and try and hold it until teammates Andy or Frank Schleck take it from him in the mountains

-Stages To Watch-
July 4 - Stage 1 An unusually difficult 9.6 mile time trial through the streets of Monaco. Typically the overall contenders do not stick their necks out early in the Tour, but they won't be allowed to play this course too conservatively. General classification riders and time trialists to watch: Armstrong, Menchov, Cantador, Leipheimer, Cancellara, Bradly Wiggins.

July 7 - Stage 4 Team time trials are not seen each year in the Tour de France and offer a huge advantage to the deeper teams (like Astana, Silence-Lotto, and Saxobank). This 24.2 mile team time trial could easily push one of the big teams' GC contenders into Yellow early on in the Tour.

July 10 - Stage 7 At 139.2 miles, this is the longest stage in the 2009 Tour and features a mountaintop finish. This course layout could very likely force the contenders to come out of the protection of their teammates and battle it out, which is unusual in the Tour's first week. Look for teams with undetermined leadership (Astana) to fall in line behind the strongest man after this one.

July 12 - Stage 9 This stage is seemingly built for a breakaway, which is music to Saxo Bank's Voigt's ears. At 99.7 miles, the bruising mountain stage takes the riders over the famous Col d'Aspin and the Tourmalet, which Armstrong has called the Tour's toughest climb. Given that the first rest day is the next day, this is the perfect time for non-GC contenders (particularly a Frenchman who would then be in Yellow for Bastille Day) to make a run at a huge breakaway to steal a few minutes and possibly the Yellow jersey for a few days.

July 14 - Stage 10 Bastille Day at the Tour de France is always a day when the French riders go for national glory, and with this being the first of two stages where riders will not have radio communications with their managers in team cars, this could be a wild stage. The 120.8 mile course is flat though, and the GC men will likely not make any bold moves.

July 21 - Stage 16 Two massive climbs makes this alpine stage a possible back-breaker for those in the overall competition. It is likely too early for anyone to win the Tour, but it is just in time for a someone to lose it with a bad ride. The course is 99.4 miles and goes over the longest and highest climb of this Tour, the HC Col de Grand Saint-Bernard, and then deceptively named Cat 1 "Petit" Saint Bernard.

July 22 - Stage 17 After yesterday's monster climbs, this one will truly punish anyone who doesn't like climbing. 105 miles over 5 categorized climbs and a heartstopping downhill finish will likely end a few sprinters' Tours, as well as the hopes of many GC men. As the peleton is whittled down, the strongest teams will come to the forefront now. The leaders on teams that are still in tact will have a huge advantage down the stretch.

July 23 - Stage 18 With no time to rest after surviving some killer climbs in the Alps, the riders head to the second individual time trial. If the overall title is close, this time trial could go a long way to opening gaps on riders who don't time trial well. It could also further gum up the works if any teams are still in a fight for leadership.

July 25 - Stage 20 Typically the second-to-last stage is an individual time trial, but this year's Tour has held a special treat for that all-important penultimate day. Never before has the Tour held a mountain stage on the final stage before Paris and this is no ordinary mountain! A 103.8 mile epic over five categorized climbs, culminating in the crushing 13.1 mile assent of the HC moonscape of Mont Ventoux, one of the toughest climbs in the world. For one 9-mile stretch, the grade is 9%.



One of Armstrong's most famous Tour de France moments came in 2000 when he made a stunning attack on Mont Ventoux, destroying the field before eventually giving the stage win to Marco Pantani as a tribute for Pantani's comeback. When Pantani later said he was offended that Armstrong gave him the stage win, Armstrong said, "I learned a lesson that day. No more gifts."

July 26 - Stage 21 This 101.9 mile coronation almost never plays a role in determining the Yellow jersey winner, but can help determine who winds up in Green (depending on which sprinters have survived the mountains). Cavendish, Hushovd, and Freire will likely still be battling it out. The final laps through the streets of Paris serve more as a parade than a race in most years and the climb of Mont Ventoux will likely have separated the field enough that whomever is in Yellow when they start the day will be sipping champagne on the Champs Elysees as they finish it.

-Predictions-
No surprises here: Cantador in Yellow with Menchov and Andy Schleck on the podium with him, Cavendish in Green, Andy Schleck in White (and as King of the Mountains), Astana wins the Team Time battle

The race is aired live on Versus each day starting in the early morning hours, and they also do shorter recap shows throughout the day. The afternoon recap show is the easiest to swallow but the play-by-play is re-voiced later and sometimes feels a little distant from the actual action. The live broadcast features by far the best broadcast team in Paul Sherwin and Phil Liggett.

The French Surrender Case Against Armstrong

Good news! The French anti-doping authorities have decided to not seek sanctions against Lance Armstrong.

If you don't know the story, last month Armstrong took surprise urine, blood and hair tests and the French were really, really sure they would catch him cheating this time. So when he passed all three tests, they got mad and said he faked the tests which had been done in front of a testing agent of their choosing.

While his people checked the tester's credentials, Armstrong hopped in the shower (he had just finished practice). The French were apparently going to claim that while in the shower before his test, he used shampoo to clean his urine, blood and hair of all the steroids, testosterone, HGH, THC, TLC, ASAP, NCAA, NAACP, LOL, USSR, WWJD and horse tranquilizers that he is taking. That's good shampoo!

They decided against the sanctions and apparently set Wile E. Coyote at work hatching his next scheme on how to catch Armstrong before he* wins their precious bike race again.

*or any of 3-4 other Americans reasonably likely to win.

Fun fact: Since Bernard Hinault screwed Greg LaMond in 1985 and then LaMond became the first American to win the Tour in 1986, Americans have won the Tour 10 times (not counting Floyd Landis). The French have not won since then.

So Many Stories, So Little Time To Write

A week's worth of headlines rolled into one brilliant compilation:

Alex Rodriguez Is A Liar, And Not A Very Creative One!
So pretty much everyone has said that the "I didn't know what I was taking" line is a load of crap despite that every athlete caught doping seems to use it. But not only that, apparently the drug that Aroid claims to have taken without his own knowledge would not have tested positive for the two drugs that he tested positive for. And it is also not for sale in the Dominican Republic - he claimed his cousin bought it for him there. But at least his Valentine's Day-week fall-guy was his cousin and not his wife like Roger Clemens. Next excuse?

Mets Dominate Fantasy Drafts
The Mets have two players (Jose Reyes and David Wright) ranked 4th and 5th in Yahoo!'s fantasy pre-rankings and another two (Johan Santana and Carlos Beltran) ranked 17th and 19th. So with four of the most productive or valuable players in the game, and Daniel Murphy being everyone's late-round sleeper (I hope no one in my league is reading this), how have they not won a playoff game in three years?

Dodgers Fans Actually Listen To Tommy Lasorda
Last week before heading to Spring Training in Arizona, thus officially and finally driving a stake into the hearts of old-time Dodger fans everywhere, Tommy Lasorda actually said that he is not worried about the team signing Manny Ramirez and that they'd be fine without him. Apparently he did not watch the first 100 games last season. Staggeringly, 15% of Dodger fans are exactly as dumb as Lasorda takes them for and apparently agree with the fat bastard, based on a poll I posted on CBS2.com and KCAL9.com last week.

Tour Of California Races Down The Coast
Americans are dominating the nations largest cycling race, with Levi Leipheimer, David Zabriskie, Lance Armstrong and Chris Horner in 1st, 3rd, 4th, and 5th respectively. Thus far most riders have been content to stay in the peloton (aka pack) and just wind up with the same time as the leader, but Friday is the individual time trial where each rider takes off on the 15 mile sprint course on his own and races only the clock. There could potentially be a massive change in the standings, which have been basically unchanged since the first day of the Tour last weekend. Thus far, Floyd Landis and Tyler Hamilton have been inconsequential in the overall standings, but neither has nearly the support that those other four Americans have, and Landis was a phenomenal time trialist before his fall from grace and hip replacement. The Tour comes to L.A. Saturday, and should pass my parents' house between 1-2 p.m. on its way to the Rose Bowl. How pissed are the French going to be if Americans get 2 or more podium places in the Tour de France?

David Beckham May Return To Save American Soccer After All
Beckham was going to make soccer relevant in American when he signed with the Galaxy two years ago. After one injury plagued season and one season with the worst record in the league, the sport had vaulted up into the top 10 sports in the U.S. trailing only football, baseball, basketball, car racing*, hockey, Guitar Hero, Mariokart, basket weaving* and soap carving*. Last week it looked like an Italian team and Beckham had arrogantly decided that his contract here was irrelevant and he should just leave. To their credit, the Galaxy told the Italian team to screw themselves and wouldn't let their star go. Supposedly the Italians are planning to sweeten the deal to get Beckham out, but for now he is still back to save soccer once more.

*-not a sport

The Clippers Are Bad, I Mean Really Bad
On paper, this is clearly a playoff team: Baron Davis, Zach Randolph, Eric Gordon, Al Thornton, Marcus Camby, Chris Kaman and Ricky Davis are a solid first seven and they have some decent backups well. Injuries and the fact that their jerseys say "Clippers" on them have cursed them however. How bad are they? Over their last 15 games, they have allowed 113 points per game. and only kept opponents under 100 seven times in the last two months. And Mike Dunleavy has two jobs and I don't.

Suns Didn't Trade Stoudamire But Lost Him Anyway
Amare Stoudamire, rumored to be traded to every team in the NBA, 11 NFL teams, 5 MLB teams, and bridge club, didn't get traded as the NBA trade deadline passed. In fact Rafer Alston was the biggest name to move. Now one day later, the Sun found out they have lost Stoudamire for 8 weeks due to a detached retina. As bad as I feel for the Suns and for Stoudamire himself of course, I cannot help but think about Kenny from Out of Sight and how he had to retire from boxing because he had his retina detached two times. Then I think of Kenny tussling with Toughy and Moselle telling Karen Cisco that if she sees Snoopy Miller to tell him that she needs grocery money and the dog got run over. I love that movie.

NFL Combine Starts
All of the NFL Mock-Drafts that have been published to this point are hereby rendered irrelevant, begging the question of why those writers ever put their names to those admittedly inaccurate rankings in the first place. So who will go #1? Not Andre Smith who decided not to come to the combine apparently because he has not been working out and didn't want to show off all of his new rolls (he's 330+ when in shape). He admitted that he hasn't worked out in three or four weeks and wants to get his "numbers down" before running his 6.8 40. Mark Sanchez improved his stock by signing up to do all the throwing drills, which most quarterbacks apparently don't do. Why do they have this combine if no one goes to it? Anyway, Sanchez's decision to go through all the drills shows he is willing to put out effort and be coached. The trouble is, the drills will likely show he is not a very good quarterback. Pick your poison - spoiled reputation but a top 10 pick, or nice guy reputation and a 2nd round pick.

NBA Dunk Contest Won On A Dunk You've Seen 100 Times
Nate Robinson won the NBA Dunk Contest by jumping over a guy and dunking. In other news, the set set in the west that evening. But I suppose it is better than Dwight Howard winning last year's dunk contest by successfully completing a layup, but not a dunk.

Aikman Award: Color Commentary Of The Week
"Every time UCLA gets up by 7, or 8, or 9, Washington makes a big basket to get it back to a one possession game."--UCLA Basketball announcer Don MacLean, who has to be checked every 3-4 minutes for a pulse. Apparently University of Washington players have figured out how to make a six-point basket, which could really catch on.

From Lingerie-Clad Football Players To Topless Figure Skaters

The sports world took a bitter blow on Monday. I imagine I don't really need to go into it further and you already know what I am referring to. The Lingerie Bowl was cancelled. Apparently one of the main roadblocks that wound up shutting down the event was that these highly principled, modest, proud young women were unwilling to degrade themselves by having to play the game at a nudist colony...I mean what are they, prostitutes?

As it turns out, this is the third consecutive year that this game has been cancelled. At what point is an event cancelled for the year and what point is it just an historical footnote? And does the fact that no one ever watched it when it (allegedly) was played make a difference?

The Cardinals and Steelers have arrived in Tampa for the other football game that was scheduled for Sunday (apparently still on, as of Tuesday morning). I have heard a lot of talk on sports radio and ESPN about how the Cardinals are built just like the Steelers are, so this success is not a fluke - they drafted well and are now reaping the benefits. So basically, the question is whether this season's success is repeatable.

I have heard a lot of interesting arguments that indeed, it is repeatable, but of course these arguments are all stupid. Kurt Warner is a fantastic story, but he is likely going to retire and even if he doesn't, it is far more likely he will look like the Kurt Warner of the previous five years, and not the one of last year. And besides his phenomenal year, this would have been the same team as last year: no running game, no running defense, great receivers, Matt Leinart.

When you are wondering if the "story of the year" team can repeat the next year, the answer is always no. If it is a miracle that they got this far, is it really fair to expect them to perform another miracle? Not only can they likely not pull it off, but everyone will be gunning for them from day 1. Ask the Rockies what it was likely coming back after that ridiculous 2007 season?

Are you hearing this Tampa Bay Rays?

The 2008 Dodgers are another such team, but their "magical run" was fueled exclusively by Manny Ramirez, there was no synergy, no draft picks that worked out, no coach pulling all the right strings. There was a dude hitting .400 that made all the other crappy players look they belonged in the major leagues.

I saw an interview with Dodgers first baseman James Loney recently where he said he was excited for the upcoming season, especially with the way everyone came together and really hit their strides towards the end of 2008. Does it count as your stride when someone is carrying you?

So then that means they just need Manny back and they'll win 120 games right? Not so much. With every swing, Manny was screaming "F you!" at Theo Epstein. That fire won't be there this year. If he is anywhere but L.A., he'll still hit .300 with 25 homers and 100 RBI, but he won't hit .400 with 50 homers and 150 RBI. If he is in L.A., he will sandbag the whole year and prove Boston was right to dump him.

Does anyone think that a guy with a history of loafing when he feels disrespected is going to hustle and smile and shine if he rejoins the Dodgers after they low-balled him for five months? He just came out Monday are repeated again that he wants 4-5 years at $25 million a year. So all this waiting and posing that the Dodgers have done has not knocked a dime off of his asking price. So in the next month, will he really knock 550,000,000 dimes off and then come to camp happy?

But the McCourts have done what they do best: they've made it look like they tied to fix things but that it was out of their hands. They made their crappy, low-ball offer and then made sure the media knew they did it. Now they can put all the blame on the player when he inevitably bolts for a better deal. I hope Manny relents (not likely with Scott Boras as his agent), takes a 3 year deal for $70 million and then just tanks for the next three years, making the Dodgers wish they still had Andruw Jones.

The last two stories of note: Floyd Landis' two year ban from supposedly doping during the 2006 Tour de France is up this weekend and Landis is training for the Tour of California and ideally the Tour de France, assuming that he can get onto a team that is in it. This means that this year's Tour de France could add Lance Armstrong, Floyd Landis, Tyler Hamilton, Alberto Cantador, Andreas Kloden and Levi Leipheimer to the field after last year's superstar-devoid race. I personally thought the parity in 2008 was very entertaining and that Carlos Sastre, Cadel Evans, Christian Vandevelde, Bernhard Kohl, and Denis Menchov put together a great Tour. But the absence of the sports' stars was palpable throughout and it will be great to watch the French swallow having five Americans as potential favorites.

And finally, last week the strap of a pairs figure skater snapped and her breast was exposed during their routine. The pair amazingly didn't stop and actually finished the routine. They finished 12th, so apparently the judges didn't like what they saw.