Tour de France 2010: Rest Day Recap 1

It looks like the 2010 Tour de France won't exactly live up to it's Lance vs. Cantador bidding, but it may end up being even better. 

Pre-Race Build-Up
When Lance Armstrong retired from cycling in 2006 after winning seven straight Tours de France, it was Spain's Alberto Cantador that took up the mantle of the world's greatest road cyclist, and he did it for Armstrong's old team and manager, Discovery and Johan Bruyneel.  Catador won the 2007 Tour and looked primed to start his own streak.  Discovery dropped their sponsorship of the team however, and Bruyneel took his team to Astana, rebuilding the team after it had been decimated by doping violations. 

The sins of the prior team management and athletes haunted Astana in 2008 as they were banned from the Tour de France, despite that no one on the team or running the team had been around when the doping had occurred.  So Cantador was prevented from defending his title, and a somewhat lackluster 2008 Tour was won by Carlos Sastre. 

Armstrong came back out of retirement for the 2009 season and joined Bruyneel with Astana, but he openly said at the time that the team's leader was Cantador, who had developed into the world's greatest climber, an exceptional time trialist, and a master tactician.  He was simply the best rider in the world and Armstrong wanted to support him and help raise the profile of his own cancer-fighting efforts.  However Armstrong's fame and the surprisingly high level at which he was riding after three years off were clear problems for the team and a rivalry developed between the two champions. 

After six stages of the 2009 Tour, Armstrong was placed above Cantador in the overall standings, though he still insisted he was riding in support of Cantador.  After all, what happens in the first week is generally only a footnote to how things finish up.  That said, when Cantador attacked on a climb in stage 7, carrying two rival riders away and pushing his own teammates (Armstrong, Levi Leipheimer, and Andreas Kloden) down in the standings, it was considered against protocol, especially since the team had been specifically directed by their manager to not make such a move.  So Cantador bolted away, Saxobank's Frank and Andy Schleck went with him, and Armstrong stayed back to prevent other rivals from bridging the gap along with him, and a serious schism was formed within the team.

For the remainder of the 2009 Tour, Armstrong dutifully played the role of support rider, and those on the team in his camp did the same. Cantador went on to a sizeable win in the 2009 Tour.  Afterwards, he cut the last tenuous ties to Armstrong by badmouthing him in post-race interviews and that spelled the end of that generation of Team Astana.  Armstrong and Bruyneel went on to form Team RadioShack for 2010 and took eight of the nine riders from Astana with them (Cantador being the lone hold-out, of course).

Much of the pre-2010 Tour press billed this race as a final showdown between the retiring Lance Armstrong and the reigning Alberto Cantador.  And as great as that story might have been, it was not to be.  But it's probably not even the most intriguing of plots. 

• Would Cantador's reformed Astana team be strong enough to support him?
• Could Astana stay clean with the management and primary rider (Alexander Vinokourov) just coming off of two-year bans for doping?
• Is Cantador so strong that he doesn't need support anyway?
• Can two loose cannons like Vinokourov and Cantador co-exist or will Vino try to hijack the team like he did from Jan Ullrich on T-Mobile?
• Is Armstrong still strong enough to truly compete?
• Isn't Cantador's true rival Andy Schleck?
• Can Cadel Evans get over the hump and win it all on a new team with George Hincapie at his side?
• Aside from Cantador's dominance, this appears to be one of the deepest talent pools perhaps of all time, with no less than 11 reasonable picks to win (Cantador, Armstrong, Leipheimer, Christian Vandevelde, Schleck, Evans, Frank Schleck, Bradley Wiggins, Ivan Basso, Denis Menchov, and Michael Rogers).
• How many stages can Mark Cavendish win, and will Tyler Farrar finally get one?
• Cavendish vs. Thor Hushovd in the Green jersey competition.
• Who is the next great American to emerge (Leipheimer, Vandevelde, Chris Horner, Farrar, David Zabriskie)?
• Three American teams for the first time ever.
• Will Fabian Cancellara really have a motor on his bike during the Prologue and time trial?
• How long will Cancellara hang onto the Yellow jersey after his certain win in the Prologue?

Now a week later, many of these questions have been answered, but the biggest ones have not been, and perhaps the most interesting storyline that no one thought of has emerged: what if Armstrong falls out of contention in week one and then just starts attacking like a mad-man and blows the whole race apart later?

Week 1 Highlights
Prologue: Cancellara wins (predictably).  Armstrong finishes ahead of Cantador.  Andy Schleck stumbles out of the gate and loses 32 seconds to Cantador (worst start among all general classification favorites). 

Stage 1: Mark Cavendish and Tyler Farrar are among dozens caught in crashes including a massive one right near the end.  Both miss out on the final sprint (won by Alessandro Petacchi).  Cancellara retains the Yellow jersey.

Stage 2: France's Sylvain Chavanel escapes the peloton, wins the stage by nearly three minutes and takes over the Yellow jersey.  The stage is filled with crashes once again.  Vandevelde is out with broken ribs. Farrar breaks his wrist but will continue.  Armstrong, both Schlecks, Cantador, Kloden, Hincapie, Wiggins and other favorites all crash as well.  Cancellara "neutralizes" the field, asking other riders not to attack with so many being caught in crashes (essentially preventing his own chances of keeping the Yellow jersey and keeping Evans from gaining huge time on his rivals since he remained unscathed).

Stage 3: A brutal cobblestone-filled stage takes its toll as Chavanel pops a tire three times, abruptly ending his reign in Yellow.  Armstrong loses time to Cantador after a flat tire of his own.  Thor Hushovd survives the cobbles to win the final sprint and take a commanding lead in the Green jersey competition as most of his rivals are content to just survive this stage.  Evans and Andy Schleck beat Cantador by nearly a minute.  Vinokourov dutifully plays the role of "domestique," supporting Cantador for nearly the entire stage...before suddenly leaving him in the dust near the end, allowing Wiggins to gain 20 seconds on Catador.  Frank Schleck is out with broken ribs.

Stage 4: The sprinters have their day on a flat stage.  Petacchi wins again, surging past Cavendish with Hushovd sitting on Cavendish's wheel, but Hushovd retains a commanding Green jersey lead.  Cancellara retains Yellow.  With Farrar unable to sprint yet, his two leadout men get the chance to open up and go for the win.  Julian Dean places 2nd and Robbie Hunter is 5th.

Stage 5: Another flat stage, but Cavendish is able to put it all together finally and blows everyone away in the sprint.  Surprisingly, Dean and Hunter set up Farrar this time, but he only finishes 10th.  Hushovd and Cancellara keep their jerseys, with Jerome Pineau still the only rider to wear the Polka-dot climbers jersey this year.

Stage 6: Cavendish puts his stamp on this flat stage as well, winning his second straight stage and establishing himself as the fastest man in the field again.  Farrar takes second.  Four Astana riders seemingly take the day off (combined they lost around 27:00 to the field), perhaps preparing for the mountains coming in Stage 7.  Cancellara, Hushovd, and Pineau retain their jerseys.

Stage 7: The riders see their first serious climbs of the 2010 Tour, though this is only considered a low-mountain stage going over six categorized climbs: 3, 4, 3, 2, 2, and 2 (1 being the hardest). Cancellara was dropped from the peloton on the first serious climb-attack, but recovered later.  He was never expected to survive the mountains in the lead.  Pineau defends his climbers jersey admirably, joining an early breakaway group to capture huge amounts of points on each of the first five climbs. 

On the final climb, Astana tkes over the pace-making and blows the peloton apart (that rest in Stage 6 came in handy!).  Chavanel is able to breakaway from the peloton, reclaiming the Yellow jersey and the over all lead (though he was allowed to go because he is not considered a great threat in the lond run).  None of the general classification contenders really push hard or are pushed hard, and all finish together. 

Stage 8: Finally tested against the high Alps, the field is blown apart.  Armstrong crashes three times, once just as the peloton begins powering up the massive category 1 climb up Col de la Ramaz.  Four teammates stay back to guide him back into the peloton, but by the time they do, the leaders have already broken away and Amrstrong has used far too much energy just trying to get back in the race.  In the end, he loses nearly 12 minutes on the leaders. 

This stage features four categorized climbs, including two Cat-1's (4, 4, 1, 3, 1).  Cadel Evans is caught in one of the crashes that also catches Armstrong, but Evans is actually thrown from the bike, taking some cuts to his knee, hip and elbow.  Evans' fall (4 miles into the race) is far earlier than Armstrong's bad fall, so he recovers nicely.

Besides Armstrong, all of the other major contenders stay together throughout the stage, with Astana establishing themselves as the Tour's strongest team by far.  Vinokourov and Daniel Navarro carry Cantador and the rest of the contenders nearly all the way to the finish before any of them is able to make any serious attacks. 

Cantador runs down the first few attacks in the final miles, but he is unable to stay with Andy Schleck, who escapes the pack to win the stage and pick up 10 seconds on Cantador and the rest.  But more importantly, he shows he is able to handle a serious mountain stage without teammates helping, specifically his brother, Frank. 

In the end, Evans moves up into the over all lead and the Yellow jersey.  Schleck slides into 2nd, 20 second back.  Cantador is third, 1:10 back.  And the rest of the major contenders (sans Armstrong) all sit in the top 15, all within about three minutes of the lead. 

Stage 9 and Beyond
With Armstrong all but out of the running for the win, he said after Stage 8 that he would now just have fun, enjoy his last Tour, support new RadioShack leader Levi Leipheimer, and try to win some stages.  This brings up an interesting problem for the rest of the field: if Lance Armstrong (now nearly 13 minutes off the pace) makes a bold move on a climb, don't the leaders have to go with him?  Typically a rider who is that far back is not a threat and his moves wouldn't be countered, but this is Lance Armstrong.  You can't let him go, but you also don't know if you can stay with him...so is it worth it to get totally burned out tracking him down, when you may not be able to recover well in later stages as a result?

Regardless of whether Armstrong or another American wins over all, isn't this exactly the type of role we would want our heroes to be in?  Complete wild cards.  Armstrong won't hinder Leipheimer's chances to win; he is the consumate teammate.  But don't you think he would love to stick it to Cantador somehow?  I can see him attacking constantly over the next two weeks, forcing Cantador to be on the defensive all the time, and wearing him out. 

And besides this and all those unanswered questions from above, we have these interesting storylines to follow now as well...

• Can Andy thrive without Frank?
• Can Farrar overcome broken wrist to finally win a stage?
• Can anyone touch Cavendish now that he's back?
• Will Vinokourov be the good teammate to Cantador or will he be his old reckless self?
• Will Evans, who has a history of struggling to race in the lead, crack in Yellow again?
• Can Leipheimer get over the hump now that he is the unquestioned leader of Bruyneel's team?
• Now that the top three realistic pre-race favorites are 1-2-3, how will their teams' tactics change?

Looking Ahead
Stage 9: 5 categorized climbs (4, 1, 2, 1, HC) including Col de la Colombiere (1) and Col de la Madeleine (HC).  Finishes with a long descent, but the climbs are so tough that this could break the field apart, especially if Armstrong or another contender gets aggressive.  How will they do the day after a rest day?

Stage 10: 3 categorized climbs (1, 3, 2) but a long descent into the finish that may allow dropped riders to recover, which could prevent major attacks by contenders.  It's a good race profile for a breakway to survive all the way to the finish.  July 14 is Bastille Day in France, so watch out for patriotic Frenchmen in the breakaways (I'm looking at you, Sylvain Chavanel, Christophe Moreau, and Thomas Voekler). 

Stage 11: Flat stage that will favor the sprinters. 

Stage 12 and 13: 5 categorized climbs each, but none greater that a Cat-2, so these could both end up being bunch sprints unless a breakway gets clear.  The contenders will likely use these stages as "recovery" days before the coming attacks in the Pyranees. 

Stage 14: After a long, flat run-up, this stage finishes with two brutal climbs, an HC and a summit finish on a Cat-1.  Contenders will definately use this stage to separate out the weaker riders, but there may not be much aggressive attacking this early on.  Look for the true Yellow jersey hopefuls to show themselves after this stage and Cantador and Schleck to hammer away at one another all day.

Stage 15: 4 categorized climbs culminating in an HC climb up Port de Bales before a nasty descent into the finish.  Probably another stage to distance the leaders from the pack, but not from one another unless Schleck or Cantador get especially aggressive. 

Stage 16: 2 Cat-1's and 2 HC's (including Col d'Aspin, Col du Tourmalet, and Col d'Aubisque) make this a terrifying stage, but the last climb is nearly 30 miles from the finish, so the field may have time to get back together.  There is a rest day the following day, which could play into how aggressive the general classification riders get. 

Stage 17-21: Come back next week for more.

The Tour Hits The Home Stretch

It would seem that the Tour de France is basically a race for third place at this point. Alberto Cantador has basically sewn up his second overall win in three years, and Andy Schleck has basically claimed 2nd (as well as the white best-young-rider jersey). Thor Hushovd ended the chase for the green sprinters/points jersey. Franco Pellizotti has ended the climb for the polka dot king of the mountains jersey. And Astana has pretty much but the team time race to bed as well. And I am running away with my fantasy group on Versus.com. But any of five men could potentially fill that third place spot on the podium in Paris on Sunday.

Or is it all that cut and dry? As we have seen, the most innocent looking crashes can occur on the easiest of stages, and can knock major contenders out in an instant (Levi Leipheimer). Not to mention that there are serious dangers on these roads that can lead to horrific crashes that could shake up the standings (Jens Voigt - pictured). But aside from a crash ruining the fun in these last four stages, how safe are the jersey-wearers?

It appears that Cantador is a lock to win it all. He widened his overall gap to 2:26 on Wednesday and has shown that he has the legs (if not the strategic expertise or teamsmanship) to out do any man on the climbs. And while he isn't the absolute best time trialist and may lose a little time to a few men on Thursday, he is excellent in that discipline and has provided himself with a massive cushion regardless. Put it in the bank: Cantador wins.

Andy Schleck finds himself in 2nd overall and should not have any trouble hanging onto that position. His closest rival is his brother/teammate Frank (:59 behind him) so there is no cause for concern there. Behind Frank is Lance Armstrong who has shown that he does have the power to plow through these climbs, but keeps being left out on quick accelerations...which Andy Schleck does well if need be on Saturday on Mont Ventoux. Plus, he has 1:19 on Armstrong and 2:18 on Andreas Kloden (5th), and 2:27 on time trial threat Bradley Wiggins (6th).

Frank Schleck in third won't attack his own brother (more because he's a teammate than a brother probably) to try to move up into 2nd, but his hold on third in Paris is only tenuous. He has shown great strength and has ridden beautifully through the first 2+ weeks, but he holds just :30 on Lance Armstrong and that is not a strong position with a time trial and brutal mountain stage remaining. Kloden is 1:19 back and Wiggins is 1:28, and both of them are threats to move up as well. By comparison, in the stage 1 time trial in Monaco, Wiggins beat Frank Schleck by 1:19, and that course was not as well-suited to Wiggins' style as the one on Thursday is. The race for third could easily be divided by 10-15 seconds among five men as they take on Mont Ventoux on the last real stage of the Tour.

Thor Hushovd rode an inspired race in stage 17, both tactically and physically. With his small lead in the green jersey competition in peril with two potential field sprints remaining, and Mark Cavendish having shown that he cannot be beaten in such a competition, Hushovd simply took the sprints out of the equation by surging ahead on a Cat 1 climb and descent, catching and passing a breakaway full of pure climbers. He put up to 2:00 between himself and the nearest man, taking wins at both of stage 17's sprint checkpoints and even winning a climb during his solo breakaway (before sitting up and actually taking a Coke from his team car as he waited for the field to catch him, his job done).

Pellizotti likely ended the king of the mountains chase in stage 16 when he got into yet another breakaway (a daily occurrence for Pellizotti) and took maximum points over both of the day's climbs. Astana took over the team time lead in stage 15 before doubling their lead to just over two-and-a-half minutes in stage 16. They then added nearly 14 minutes to the lead in stage 17, no thanks to Cantador's inexplicable attack on the final climb that pre-empted a move planned for Kloden. Vincenzo Nibali has kept the race for the best young rider competition respectable (2:43 behind Schleck through stage 17), but he hasn't shown that he can keep up with Schleck, let alone take that much time away from him over these last few stages.

Looking ahead, Fabian Cancellara is a big favorite to win the time trial on Thursday, just as he did in stage 1 in Monaco. Cancellara is over an hour-and-a-half behind the leaders though and is of no concern. All eyes will be on Wiggins (6th overall) who was third in stage 1, losing 1 second to Cantador but beating each of his other rivals for the podium in Paris by as much as 80 seconds.

Stage 19 looks like a possible bunch sprint where the leaders will not bother to attack one another at all (just one Cat. 2 climb and two Cat. 4's.) and will rest on their time gains from the time trial. That sets up a potential classic on Saturday's penultimate stage with four moderate climbs culminating in the Highest Category climb to an uphill finish on Mont Ventoux. No lead is really safe on this climb as an agressive rider who is able to break away from the pack of leaders could easily take 2-3 minutes out of the group on that climb alone. And stage 21 will likely be Cantador's coronation through the streets of Paris as Cavendish bolts one last time for a stage win.

Contenders:
1. Alberto Cantador
2. Andy Schleck +2:26
3. Frank Schleck +3:25
4. Lance Armstrong +3:55
5. Andreas Kloden +4:44
6. Bradley Wiggins +4:53
7. Vincenzo Nibali +5:09

2009 Tour de France For Dummies

The 2009 Tour de France starts Saturday, July 4 in Monaco and in anticipation of this spectacular event, here is a two part explanation of the race, the riders, and the storylines to watch for over the next three-and-a-half weeks.

-Storylines to Watch-
Lance is Back American Lance Armstrong retired from professional cycling in 2005 after winning an unprecedented seven Tours de France in-a-row. In order to bolster his Livestrong campaign against cancer, last year he decided to come out of retirement and raise the profile of both his crusade, and of the sports of cycling...and possibly take home some hardware in the process. Armstrong joined powerhouse Team Astana which already boasted the world's best current stage racer (Alberto Cantador) and America's best rider (Levi Leipheimer) as well. After recovering from a broken collarbone suffered in a crash earlier this year, Armstrong is back in good form and it a contender for the overall title as long as he shows he is the strongest of his teammates and can win their support.

Former Greats Fall Short of Redemption Once upon a time, Ivan Basso was the chief rival to Armstrong and Jan Ulrich. After receiving a two-year ban for admitting that he had been planning to blood dope (did you read that Bud Selig?), he returned this year and joined Liquigas but was not chosen as one of their Tour de France riders this year. American Floyd Landis was stripped of the 2006 Tour de France title for allegedly doping. Landis had a hip replaced, served out his two-year ban, and returned early this season as well. But he was unable to land a spot on a premier team and his California-based Ouch! Racing failed to be selected for this Tour. Former American national champ and Olympic gold medalist Tyler Hamilton decided to retire when caught using steroids and was then hit with an eight-year ban since he'd already served a two-year ban for blood doping (which he denies). Sprinter Tom Boonen was booted from this Tour after a third positive cocaine test outside of the racing season. (Update: Boonen was reinstated the day before the Tour started and is riding for Quickstep). Another former Armstrong-rival, Alexander Vinokourov, retired when he got a one-year ban when caught blood doping at the 2007 Tour de France. After deciding to unretire, his case was reopened and he was ordered to serve out the standard two-year ban, so he will also miss the 2009 Tour. Vino's doping in 2007 was a key reason for Team Astana not being invited to the 2008 Tour, keeping returning champ Cantador out of the race at no fault of his own.

Course Favors Climbers Armstrong stated that this year's course offers a great advantage to climbers which makes for wonderful theater as the racers turn themselves inside out trying to summit Alpine and Pyranean peaks in the quest for their sports' greatest glory.

As Long As They Don't All Kill Eachother... Team Astana features three of the races top names, and top contenders for the overall title. Their loyalty to their teammates and their respect for the sport's traditions will be tested as two of them will be forced to swallow their pride to carry their teammate to victory. But which one?

More Reasons For The French To Hate Us As if having the all-time greatest Tour de France rider being an ugly American wasn't bad enough, now he's back and they just can't seem to pin any cheating on him! And now there are as many of five Americans with decent chances to win it all - Armstrong, Leipheimer, David Zabriskie, Christian Vandevelde, and Danny Pate. For the second straight year, there are also two American teams as well - Garmin-Slipstream, and Columbia-High Road.

Radio Silence For the first time in decades, riders will compete in two stages (10 and 13) without the benefit of radio communication with team managers in chase cars with GPS information, time gaps, etc. Look for veteran riders to try and take advantage, particularly on the hilly stage 13, where small pockets of riders or indivuduals could easily slip away from the peleton if their don't have their head count right. The wiley Jens Voigt is a common favorite to make a bold move under these circumstances, which may be exactly why he doesn't bother.

What's With The Polka Dots? Six awards are given out at the Tour de France: The Yellow jersey is awarded daily to the overall leader (based on total time) - also known as the General Classification or GC. The Green jersey is awarded daily to the overall leader in sprint points (each stage has a few checkpoints where points are awarded to the first three riders to cross, as well as at the finish line) - also known as the Points Classification. The Polka Dot jersey is awarded daily to the overall top climber (points are awarded at the summits of each climb - the higher the climb and the later in a stage it occurs, the more points are awarded) - also known as the King of the Mountains Classification. The White jersey is awarded daily to the overall leader who is 25-years-old or younger - also known as the Best Young Rider Classification. The team with the fastest overall time at the end of the Tour wins the Team Time title - times are counted by adding up the times of the three fastest team members each day. And a Most Aggressive Rider jersey is awarded daily based on the previous day's stage (signified by white numbers on red, as opposed to black numbers on white like all other riders).

The Rundown This 96th Tour has 21 stages and covers approximately 2200 miles of road through six countries (Monaco, France, Spain, Andorra, Switzerland, and Italy), with two rest days. It runs from July 4th to July 26th. There are 10 flat stages, eight mountain stages, two individual time trials, and a team time trial. Three stages finish on the summits of climbs. There are 20 Highest Category ("HC"), Category 1, or 2 climbs, with the highest point reached being the summit of Col de Grand-Saint Bernard at 8113 feet during Stage 16. Climbs are categorized based on difficulty, as determined by the steepness (grade) and length of a climb.

-Riders To Watch-
Alberto Cantador (Spain) - Team Astana Generally considered the best stage race cyclist in the world, Cantador is the odds-on favorite. He has won every Grand Tour (like golf's Majors and tennis' Grand Slams) he has entered since winning the '07 Tour de France, and is riding very well right now. He will need to show his dominance early on to prove that he is the man to support for his Astana teammates and management. Cycling teams are designed to have a leader that gets protected by the other eight riders. Generally, they know going in who they will support and while Cantador is considered the strongest rider, the team almost has to be a little split considering who else is in the Astana stable.

Lance Armstrong (USA) - Team Astana While not a prohibitive favorite like he was the last few times he was in the Tour, Armstrong is on the short list of riders with a very good chance to win it all. If Cantador falters, crashes, or Armstrong comes out in completely dominating fashion early on, he could wrest control of the team away from Cantador. This could end in an unprecedented eighth Tour win, or it could shatter the team into pieces, costing them more than just the general classification title as well as shots at the other titles (and huge pay-days). Armstrong is a fan favorite and is a close friend and ally of team manager Johan Bruyneel, but this is Cantador's team (and Tour) to lose.

Andy Schleck (Luxembourg) - Team Saxo Bank Last year's Young Rider champion, the younger Schleck brother is still only 24 but is a serious threat for the GC title this year if he can keep himself from having that one bad day that knocks him out of it. Like Cantador and Armstrong, he is an exceptional climber and time trialist, and he has a deep team that can help protect him (particularly with older brother Frank, Voigt, and Fabian Cancellara).

Carlos Sastre (Spain) - Cervelo Test Team The 2008 Tour was considered a weaker field due to some doping suspensions and the organizers holding Astana out, and Sastre's win is considered a bit flukey due to his perhaps lucky timing on the ride up Alpe d' Huez. But a Tour de France champion he is, and he will be wearing #1 on his hip no matter what the critics might say. Sastre jumped ship from CSC-Saxo Bank to take the helm at the new Cervelo team and while that eliminates the competition at the top of the team, it also eliminates the protection he felt at the helm of such a deep squad.

Cadel Evans (Australia) - Silence-Lotto Evans has clearly been the most consistent rider in the Tour de France in Armstrong's absense, but doesn't have any hardware to show for it. Since his first Tour in 2005 when he finished 8th, he improved in 2006 to 5th, and was the runner up in 2007 and 2008 by under a minute each time. Evans' team is not as strong as Astana or Saxo Bank but he does have Sebastian Lang and Johan Van Summeren to support him (if Van Summeren isn't the leader).

Denis Menchov (Russia) - Rabobank Menchov is often considered not an overall favorite at the Tour because he is unspectacular...he isn't the best in any one discipline. But he just dominated the Giro d'Italia against most of the same field using his steady, solid style. He may not dominate, but he can certainly hang around long enough to win.

Levi Leipheimer (USA) - Team Astana The forgotten star on the three headed monster that is Astana, Leipheimer has taken a backseat to the dominance of Cantador and the notoriety of Armstrong, but this team could just as easily be his depending perhaps on how things go in stage 1 and stage 7. Leipheimer is also an exceptional time trialist and can hang with many of the best climbers, though isn't considered an elite climber himself.

Mark Cavendish (UK) - Columbia-High Road With his absoluletly dominant sprint speed, his expectation of finishing the Tour (somewhat unusual for sprinters), and the absense of Boonen, Cavendish has a very good chance of topping his 2008 Tour performance where he won 4 stages. Cavendish's sprinting is so dominant and his climbing is so adequate that he is even a distant contender for GC (very, very distant). He'd likely be happier wearing Green in Paris anyway, and seeing teammates Michael Rogers or Kim Kirchen in Yellow anyway.

Alejandro Valverde (Spain) - Caisse d-Epargne Banned. The Italian Olympic committee banned this team leader and GC favorite from competing in Italy and since the Tour goes onto Italian soil in stage 16, Valverde is out. He placed in the top 10 in GC for the last two Tours.

Christian Vandevelde (USA) - Garmin-Slipstream 2008 Yellow jersey 5th place
Kim Kirchen (Luxembourg) - Columbia-High Road 2008 Yellow jersey 8th place
David Zabriskie (USA) - Garmin-Slipstream 2009 US National Champion
David Moncoutie (France) - Confidis Le Credit En Ligne Great climber, top French hope
Oscar Freire (Spain) - Rabobank 2008 Green jersey winner
Thor Hushovd (Norway) - Cervelo Test Team 2008 Green jersey runner up
Danny Pate (USA) - Garmin-Slipstream Distant GC hopeful
Tyler Farrar (USA) - Garmin-Slipstream Top American sprinter, one of Cavendish's biggest threats
George Hincapie (USA) - Columbia-High Road Top support for Rogers/Kirchen, an all-time great American cyclist
Fabian Cancellara (Switzerland) - Team Saxo Bank A master time trialist, he will likely go for the yellow jersey in stage 1 and try and hold it until teammates Andy or Frank Schleck take it from him in the mountains

-Stages To Watch-
July 4 - Stage 1 An unusually difficult 9.6 mile time trial through the streets of Monaco. Typically the overall contenders do not stick their necks out early in the Tour, but they won't be allowed to play this course too conservatively. General classification riders and time trialists to watch: Armstrong, Menchov, Cantador, Leipheimer, Cancellara, Bradly Wiggins.

July 7 - Stage 4 Team time trials are not seen each year in the Tour de France and offer a huge advantage to the deeper teams (like Astana, Silence-Lotto, and Saxobank). This 24.2 mile team time trial could easily push one of the big teams' GC contenders into Yellow early on in the Tour.

July 10 - Stage 7 At 139.2 miles, this is the longest stage in the 2009 Tour and features a mountaintop finish. This course layout could very likely force the contenders to come out of the protection of their teammates and battle it out, which is unusual in the Tour's first week. Look for teams with undetermined leadership (Astana) to fall in line behind the strongest man after this one.

July 12 - Stage 9 This stage is seemingly built for a breakaway, which is music to Saxo Bank's Voigt's ears. At 99.7 miles, the bruising mountain stage takes the riders over the famous Col d'Aspin and the Tourmalet, which Armstrong has called the Tour's toughest climb. Given that the first rest day is the next day, this is the perfect time for non-GC contenders (particularly a Frenchman who would then be in Yellow for Bastille Day) to make a run at a huge breakaway to steal a few minutes and possibly the Yellow jersey for a few days.

July 14 - Stage 10 Bastille Day at the Tour de France is always a day when the French riders go for national glory, and with this being the first of two stages where riders will not have radio communications with their managers in team cars, this could be a wild stage. The 120.8 mile course is flat though, and the GC men will likely not make any bold moves.

July 21 - Stage 16 Two massive climbs makes this alpine stage a possible back-breaker for those in the overall competition. It is likely too early for anyone to win the Tour, but it is just in time for a someone to lose it with a bad ride. The course is 99.4 miles and goes over the longest and highest climb of this Tour, the HC Col de Grand Saint-Bernard, and then deceptively named Cat 1 "Petit" Saint Bernard.

July 22 - Stage 17 After yesterday's monster climbs, this one will truly punish anyone who doesn't like climbing. 105 miles over 5 categorized climbs and a heartstopping downhill finish will likely end a few sprinters' Tours, as well as the hopes of many GC men. As the peleton is whittled down, the strongest teams will come to the forefront now. The leaders on teams that are still in tact will have a huge advantage down the stretch.

July 23 - Stage 18 With no time to rest after surviving some killer climbs in the Alps, the riders head to the second individual time trial. If the overall title is close, this time trial could go a long way to opening gaps on riders who don't time trial well. It could also further gum up the works if any teams are still in a fight for leadership.

July 25 - Stage 20 Typically the second-to-last stage is an individual time trial, but this year's Tour has held a special treat for that all-important penultimate day. Never before has the Tour held a mountain stage on the final stage before Paris and this is no ordinary mountain! A 103.8 mile epic over five categorized climbs, culminating in the crushing 13.1 mile assent of the HC moonscape of Mont Ventoux, one of the toughest climbs in the world. For one 9-mile stretch, the grade is 9%.



One of Armstrong's most famous Tour de France moments came in 2000 when he made a stunning attack on Mont Ventoux, destroying the field before eventually giving the stage win to Marco Pantani as a tribute for Pantani's comeback. When Pantani later said he was offended that Armstrong gave him the stage win, Armstrong said, "I learned a lesson that day. No more gifts."

July 26 - Stage 21 This 101.9 mile coronation almost never plays a role in determining the Yellow jersey winner, but can help determine who winds up in Green (depending on which sprinters have survived the mountains). Cavendish, Hushovd, and Freire will likely still be battling it out. The final laps through the streets of Paris serve more as a parade than a race in most years and the climb of Mont Ventoux will likely have separated the field enough that whomever is in Yellow when they start the day will be sipping champagne on the Champs Elysees as they finish it.

-Predictions-
No surprises here: Cantador in Yellow with Menchov and Andy Schleck on the podium with him, Cavendish in Green, Andy Schleck in White (and as King of the Mountains), Astana wins the Team Time battle

The race is aired live on Versus each day starting in the early morning hours, and they also do shorter recap shows throughout the day. The afternoon recap show is the easiest to swallow but the play-by-play is re-voiced later and sometimes feels a little distant from the actual action. The live broadcast features by far the best broadcast team in Paul Sherwin and Phil Liggett.