NFL Week 13 Hangover

Two NFL divisions are officially over after Week 13.  Three more are unofficially over, and that leaves three other divisions and seven playoff spots in total turmoil.  Here's a look at what's settled and what's still up for grabs.

AFC - Settled
AFC South Champions - Indianapolis Colts (12-0)

AFC - Up For Grabs
Top seed - Indianapolis leads the race for the AFC's top seed by three games with four to play.
Byes - Indianapolis can clinch a first round bye with any Colts win and any loss by San Diego or Cincinnati.  The Chargers and Bengals are tied for the second bye (9-3), and the Chargers hold the tie-breaker based on record against AFC opponents, but the two square off in San Diego in Week 15.
Playoff Home Field - Indianapolis can clinch home field throughout the playoffs with any win and any loss by both San Diego and Cincinnati.
AFC North Champions - Cincinnati (9-3) swept the season series against Pittsburgh (6-6) and Baltimore (6-6) and will clinch the division with any Bengals win or any loss by both the Steelers and Ravens.
AFC West Champions - San Diego (9-3) is one game ahead of Denver (8-4) for the division crown.  The two split the season series and the Chargers have one more conference win than do the Broncos.
AFC East Champions - New England (7-5) is one game ahead of both New York and Miami (6-6) for the division crown.  The Patriots split the season series with both teams, but the Dolphins swept the Jets. 
AFC Wild Cards - The Broncos (8-4) sit in good position, one game ahead of Jacksonville (7-5), and two games ahead of the four-way log-jam at 6-6 between the Ravens, Dolphins, Jets, and Steelers (who sit in that order based on tie-breakers).

AFC -  Projections
1. Indianapolis Colts (16-0). Remaining: Denver (W), at Jacksonville (W), New York Jets (W), at Buffalo (W).
2. San Diego Chargers (12-4). Remaining: at Dallas (L), Cincinnati (W), at Tennessee (W), Washington (W)
3. Cincinnati Bengals (11-5). Remaining: at Minnesota (L), at San Diego (L), Kansas City (W), at New York Jets (W)
4. New England Patriots (10-6). Remaining: Carolina (W), at Buffalo (W), Jacksonville (W), at Houston (L)
5. Denver Broncos (10-6). Remaining: at Indianapolis (L), Oakland (W), at Philadelphia (L), Kansas City (W)
6. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7). Remaining: Miami (W), Indianapolis (L), at New England (L), at Cleveland (W)

7. Baltimore Ravens (9-7). Remaining: Detroit (W), Chicago (W), at Pittsburgh (L), at Oakland (W)
8. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7). Remaining: at Cleveland (W), Green Bay (W), Baltimore (W), at Miami (L)
9. Miami Dolphins (8-8). Remaining: at Jacksonville (L), at Tennessee (L), Houston (W), Pittsburgh (W)
10. New York Jets (8-8). Remaining: at Tampa Bay (W), Atlanta (W), at Indianapolis (L), Cincinnati (L)

Jacksonville advances to the playoffs based on an 8-4 AFC record.  Baltimore will be 8-5.  Pittsburgh will be 6-6.  They will travel to Cincinnati to face the Bengals, with the winner traveling to San Diego.  Denver heads to New England to play the Patriots, with the winner playing at Indianapolis.

NFC - Settled
NFC South Champions - New Orleans Saints (12-0)

NFC - Up For Grabs
Top seed - New Orleans leads the race for the NFC's top seed by 2 games over Minnesota.
Byes - New Orleans can clinch a first round bye with a win. Minnesota (10-2) has a two game lead for the second bye over Arizona (8-4), Dallas (8-4), Philadelphia (8-4), and Green Bay (8-4).
Playoff Home Field - New Orleans can clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs with any combination of 3 of their wins and Minnesota losses.
NFC North Champions - Minnesota (10-2) swept the season series against Green Bay (8-4) and can clinch the division crown with any combination of two Vikings wins and Packers losses.
NFC West Champions - Arizona (8-4) is three games ahead of San Francisco (5-7) but lost to the 49ers in Week 1.  They can clinch the division with a win over the 49ers in Week 14, otherwise they would need some combination of two Cardinal wins and 49er losses in the final three weeks.
NFC East Champions - Dallas (8-4) and Philadelphia (8-4) are tied for the division lead, but Dallas already won in Philadelphia and they meet in Dallas in Week 17. New York (7-5) is one game back, having already swept Dallas and lost in Philadelphia.  The Giants host the Eagles in Week 14.  The tie-breaker in a 3-way tie for a division is record in games among those involved, and currently the Giants are 2-1, the Cowboys are 1-2, and the Eagles are 1-1.
NFC Wild Cards - The Eagles (8-4) and Green Bay (8-4) are currently in Wild Card position, with a one game lead over the Giants (7-5), and two game lead over Atlanta (6-6).  The Eagles hold the tie-breaker with the Giants currently based on their head-to-head win, but the two face eachother in New York in Week 14.  Even with a Giants win, the Eagles would maintain their Wild Card lead over the Giants by virtue of their 7-3 NFC record vs. the Giants' 6-3 NFC record.  The Packers can hold their spot with a Week 14 win in Chicago, but would reliquish it to the Giants should the Packers lose and Giants win (6-4 and 6-3 in the NFC, respectively).

NFC - Projections
1. New Orleans Saints (16-0). Remaining: at Atlanta (W), Dallas, (W), Tampa Bay (W), at Carolina (W)
2. Minnesota Vikings (14-2). Remaining: Cincinnati (W), at Carolina (W), at Chicago (W), New York Giants (W)
3. Arizona Cardinals (11-5). Remaining: at San Francisco (W), at Detroit (W), St. Louis (W), Green Bay (L)
4. New York Giants (10-6). Remaining: Philadelphia (W), at Washington (W), Carolina (W), at Minnesota (L)
5. Green Bay Packers (11-5). Remaining: at Chicago (W), at Pittsburgh (L), Seattle (W), at Arizona (W)
6. Dallas Cowboys (10-6). Remaining: San Diego (W), at New Orleans (L), at Washington (L), Philadelphia (W)

7. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6). Remaining: at New York Giants (L), San Francisco (W), Denver (W), at Dallas (L)
8 Atlanta Falcons (8-8). Remaining: New Orleans (L), at New York Jets (L), Buffalo (W), at Tampa Bay (W)

New York wins the 3-way tie atop the NFC East thanks to their 3-1 record against the Eagles and Cowboys (Dallas is 2-2 against the others, and Philly is 1-3).  Dallas will play at Arizona, with the winner heading to Minnesota to play the Vikings.  Green Bay plays at the Giants with the winner playing in New Orleans against the top-seeded Saints.

Points of Note
- Potentially only the Packers-Giants game will see any bad weather among NFC playoff games. The other games will all be played in either Arizona or in a dome unless Dallas upsets Arizona and Minnesota, and the Giants or Packers upset New Orleans.
- The AFC playoffs will see similar conditions as first round games will be in New England and Cincinnati, but if the seeds hold, the rest of the games will either be in San Diego or a dome.
- Dallas has the toughest schedule among all contenders (opponents are 32-16).
- Arizona has the easiest schedule among all contenders (opponents are 16-32).

NFL Week 12 Hangover

We know the Colts, Saints, and Vikings are in the playoffs, with only seeding yet to be determined.  The Colts already clinched the AFC South with five game remaining, but the Saints are still a game away from doing so in the NFC South.  The Vikings can wrap up the NFC North with a win and a Packers loss in Week 13.  But every other playoff spot is up for grabs - six teams are still within striking distance for the remaining four spots in the NFC, and seven AFC teams still have good shot at claiming one of the remaining five spots in that conference. 

Here's how they lay out currently along with where they'll be playing in January.
AFC
1. Colts (11-0) - AFC South Champions.  Remaining games: Home vs. Tennessee, Denver, and New York Jets. At Jacksonville and Buffalo. Predicted finish: 16-0, #1 seed.
t2. Chargers (8-3) - Lead AFC West by 1 game.  Remaining games: Home vs. Cincinnati and Washington.  At Cleveland, Dallas, and Tennessee. Predicted finish: 12-4, #4 seed.
t2. Bengals (8-3) - Lead AFC North by 2 games. Remaining games: Home vs. Detroit and Kansas City. At Minnesota, San Diego, and New York Jets. Predicted finish: 12-4, #2 seed.
4. Patriots (7-4) - Lead AFC East by 2 games. Remaining games: Home vs. Carolina and Jacksonville.  At Miami, Buffalo, and Texas. Predicted finish: 12-4, #3 seed.
5. Broncos (7-4) - 2nd in AFC West by 1 game. Remaining games: Home vs. Oakland. At Kansas City, Indianapolis, Philadelphia, and Kansas City. Predicted finish: 10-6, #6 seed.
t6. Ravens (6-5) - 2nd in AFC North by 2 games. Remaining games: Home vs. Detroit and Chicago. At Green Bay, Pittsburgh, and Oakland. Predicted finish: 9-7, #8 (out).
t6. Jaguars (6-5) - 2nd in AFC South by 5 games.  Remaining games: Home vs. Houston, Miami, and Indianapolis. At New England and Cleveland. Predicted finish: 9-7, #7 (out).
t6. Steelers (6-5) - 3rd in AFC North by 2 games. Remaining games: Home vs. Oakland, Green Bay, and Baltimore. At Cleveland and Miami. Predicted finish: 10-6, #5 seed (win tie-breaker over Denver based on head-to-head win).

Miami (5-6), New York Jets (5-6), Houston (5-6), and Tennessee (5-6) are all still in contention but need a lot of help to make the playoffs.

The Colts (bye) would host the winner of the Steelers at the Chargers.
The Bengals (bye) would host the winner of the Broncos at the Patriots.

NFC
1. Saints (11-0) - Lead NFC South by 5 games. Remaining games: Home vs. Dallas and Tampa Bay. At Washington, Atlanta, and Carolina. Predicted finish: 16-0, #1 seed.
2. Vikings (10-1) - Lead NFC North by 3 games. Remaining games: Home vs. Cincinnati and New York Giants. At Arizona, Carolina, and Chicago. Predicted finish: 15-1, #2 seed.
3. Cowboys (8-3) - Lead NFC East by 1 game. Remaining games: Home vs. San Diego and Philadelphia. At New York Giants, New Orleans, and Washington. Predicted finish: 10-6, #6 seed.
4. Cardinals (7-4) - Lead NFC West by 2 games. Remaining games: Home vs. Minnesota, St. Louis, and Green Bay. At San Francisco and Detroit. Predicted finish: 11-5, #3 seed.
5. Eagles (7-4) 2nd in NFC East by 1 game. Remaining games: Home vs. San Francisco and Denver. At Atlanta, New York Giants, and Dallas. Predicted finish: 9-7, #8 (out).
t5. Packers (7-4) - 2nd in NFC North by 3 games. Remaining games: Home vs. Baltimore and Seattle. At Chicago, Pittsburgh, and Arizona. Predicted finish: 11-5, #5 seed.
t7. Giants (6-5) - 3rd in NFC East by 2 games. Remaining games: Home. vs. Dallas, Philadelphia, and Carolina. At Washington and Minnesota. Predicted finish: 10-6, #4 seed (win tie-breaker over Dallas based on two head-to-head wins).
t7. Falcons (6-5) - 2nd in NFC South by 5 games. Remaining games: Home vs. Philadelphia, New Orleans, and Buffalo. At New York Jets and Tampa Bay. Predicted finish: 10-6, #7 (out - lose tie-breakers to NYG and Dallas based on head-to-head losses).

San Francisco (5-6) is still in contention but needs a lot of help to make the playoffs.

The Saints (bye) would host the winner of the Packers at the Giants.
The Vikings (bye) would host the winner of the Cowboys at the Cardinals.

NFL Week 10 Hangover

With Week 10 behind us, all 32 teams have had a bye week and are even in games played.  As the weather turns cold (in other places, not so much here in Southern California), the playoff races will start to heat up.  Here's a look at where they stand today and, in brackets, a prediction of where they'll be next week:

AFC 1: Indianapolis Colts (9-0) [1]
AFC 2: Cincinnati Bengals (7-2) [2]
AFC 3: Denver Broncos (6-3) [6]
AFC 4: New England Patriots (6-3) [3]
AFC 5: San Diego Chargers (6-3) [4]
AFC 6: Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4) [5]

The Colts have home field advantage throughout the playoffs and a first round bye because they hold the best record.  The Bengals have home field advantage throughout the playoffs aginst everyone but the Colts, and a first round bye because they hold the second best record.  Denver wins the tie-breaker over San Diego because of their head-to-head win, so they get the division champ-spot, and they beat New England head-to-head, so they win that tie breaker and get the 3 seed.  They host Jacksonville and the winner plays at Cincinnati.  New England hosts San Diego with the winner playing at Indianapolis. Jacksonville wins the tie-breaker with Houston because of a head-to-head win.  They win the tie-breaker with Baltimore because their winning percentage against AFC opponents is better.

NFC 1: New Oleans Saints (9-0) [1]
NFC 2: Minnesota Vikings (8-1) [2]
NFC 3: Dallas Cowboys (6-3) [3]
NFC 4: Arizona Cardinals (6-3) [4]
NFC 5: Philadelphia Eagles (5-4) [-]
NFC 6: Green Bay Packers (5-4) [5]

The Saints have home field advantage throughout the playoffs and a first round bye because they hold the best record. The Vikings have home field advantage throughout the playoffs aginst everyone but the Saints, and a first round bye because they hold the second best record. Dallas wins the tie-breaker over Arizona because they have a better record against NFC opponents and gets the 3 seed. They host Green Bay and the winner plays at Minnesota. Arizona hosts Philadelphia with the winner playing at New Orleans. Philadelphia wins the tie-breaker the Giants because of a head-to-head win, and they also win the tie-breaker with the Packers and Falcons because of a better record against NFC opponents.  The Packers win the tie-breaker with the Giants because of a better record against NFC opponents, and they also win the tie-breaker with Atlanta because of a better record against common opponents.


Big Winners In Week 10
Cincinnati Bengals - For those who still said that the Bengals weren't for real even after sweeping the Ravens and beating the Steelers once en route to an AFC North lead (and there were many), they did a lot to silence them with yet another win over the Steelers, this time in Pittsburgh.
New York Giants - The Giants had played themselves out of a first round bye and into missing the playoffs with four straight losses.  Then in Week 10 they pulled into a tie with Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Green Bay for a Wild Card spot, and are just one game behind Dallas (who they beat in Dallas already) for the NFC East lead.  And they did it all while resting their injured players and getting a starting cornerback and a starting linebacker back during a bye week.
Anti-Patriots Fans - Whether it is because they cheated, or because they've dominated, or because coach Belichick is not exactly lovable, a lot of people do not like the Patriots, and those people got an early Christmas present when the Greatest Mind in Football made a boneheaded play call that would have been dumb on Madden to cost the Pats the game and hand the Colts their 9th win against 0 losses this season.
Indianapolis Colts - See above
LaDainian Tomlinson - Two touchdowns, nearly 100 yards rushing, and one pregnant wife say that LDT is not done delivering the goods quite yet.
Tennessee Titans - Just pretend that the first six weeks didn't count and Vince Young was the starter all along...then you're undefeated!

Big Losers in Week 10
Maurice Jones-Drew Fantasy Owners - MJD actually apologized after the game for taking a knee on the 2-yard line rather than scoring late in the game against the Jets.  Crazy as the play was considering he was losing at the time, it set up the game-winning field goal and bled off too much time for the Jets to come back.
Bills Fans - A loss, Terrell Owens blew up and blamed everyone for it (except himself despite that it was a pass that went through his hands that got picked off and returned for a touchdown, startign the late romp), an 86-year-old man made headlines for taunting you over the loss, and Dick Jauron got fired.
Belichick Apologizers - Folks, I don't care if it is JaMarcus Russell on the other sideline.  You don't risk giving anyone over 2 minutes to go only 28 yards for a win.  Bad decision to go for it, bad play selection, bad, bad, bad.
New York Jets - Stopping Maurice Jones-Drew is not easy, but the Jets got torched on a last minute drive to lose a game that they had just won with a late drive of their own.  They've lost 5 of 6 and still could have been just a game out of the playoffs if they could have held the very average Jags down late.
NFL Network - Nice season opener on Thursday between the 49ers and the Bears.  Despite the marquee time slot, it might have been the worst game of the year...until Monday night's snoozer.  Maybe Time Warner customers are the lucky ones since they didn't have to watch that 49ers-Bears game.
Denver Broncos - 6-0 start...poof! Huge division lead...poof!  First round bye...poof!  Self-respect...poof!  Losing three in-a-row is bad, but losing to the Redskins?  It's gotta be hard to look in the mirror right now.
JaMarcus Russell - 8 for 23, 64 yards.  Those are bad numbers.  Getting benched because you're losing to the Chiefs?  Wow.  Russell, the worst draft pick in the history of the NFL, has two touchdowns on the season, despite having started nine games.
Cleveland Browns - The Browns ran on the Ravens' half of the field all night.  And it was an interception returned for a touchdown.  Who's the third string quarterback?

Front Seven
1 Indianapolis Colts (9-0)
2 New Orleans Saints (9-0)
3 Minnesota Vikings (8-1)
4 Cincinnati Bengals (7-2)
5 Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3)
6 New England Patriots (6-3)
7 Arizona Cardinals (6-3)