NFL Week 9 Preview

Game of the Week I: Dallas Cowboys (5-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-2) 5:20 PM - NBC

You never know what you're going to get with either of these two teams, but if both play as they did last week, this could be a classic.  They're similar is many other ways as well, both with red-hot quarterbacks, play-making young wide receivers, and defenses that could just as easily give up 30 points as pitch a shutout with 5 or 6 sacks and 3 take-aways.  The main difference is in the running game.  Both teams are relatively average in run defense, but Dallas is averaging 30 more yards per game and almost a whole yard per carry than Philly.  If the Cowboys can contain Philly's big plays (a tall task for the league's 8th worst pass defense), they will run the Eagles into the ground.  Prediction: Eagles win and cover (-3.5)

Game of the Week II: Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) at Denver Broncos (6-1) Monday 5:30 PM - ESPN
If the Broncos felt they weren't getting enough respect as they jumped out to that 6-0 start, they quickly got a chance to prove their mettle in Baltimore.  And they got hammered.  Now they play host the Pittsburgh who had won 4-in-a-row (including over the then-undefeated Vikings) before their bye last week.  Rashard Mendenhall will test the Broncos excellent run defense, but more importanly, the Steelers defense will likely harrass Kyle Orton and the Broncos' offense just like the Ravens did last week.  Prediction: Steelers win and cover (-3.5)

Washington Redskins (2-5) at Atlanta Falcons (4-3) 10 AM
Generally speaking the way to pull off an upset is by controlling the clock with a solid running game and winning the turnover battle.  Of course, if the underdog could do those things consistantly, they probably wouldn't be underdogs.  The 'Skins are 26th in the league in rushing yards per game and 30th in turnover margin.  And the Falcons are just too balanced on offense for Washington to stop them.  Prediction: Atlanta wins and covers (-10.5)

Arizona Cardinals (4-3) at Chicago Bears (4-3) 10 AM - Fox
Arizona's once-league-leading run defense dropped to 9th after last week when they got shredded by Carolina.  So if the grossly-underperforming Matt Forte did his homework and watched that tape, he may be able to dominate this one for the Bears.  Forte won't likely be able to have a breakout game though, so Jay Cutler just needs to avoid interceptions and the Bears will wear down the Cards.  Prediction: Bears win and cover (-3.5)

Baltimore Ravens (4-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) 10 AM
The Bengals probably feel like they haven't gotten enough respect after beating the Ravens and Packers on the road, as well as the Steelers in Cincy, and only losing to the Broncos on a miracle-tipped pass for a touchdown to end the game.  But outside of Week 7's blowout of Chicago, they barely won the other 4 this season.  So are they good enough to get it done, or very, very lucky?  They ran all over the Ravens in Baltimore last month and that won't happen again.  Prediction: Ravens win and cover (-2.5)

Houston Texans (5-3) at Indianapolis Colts (7-0) 10 AM
Steve Slaton lost his job due to a fumbling problem and while Ryan Moats had a huge game last week, the Colts will have had time to watch tape of him and diagnose how to slow him down.  Matt Schaub and the Texans' passing game is good enough to hang with Peyton Manning and the Colts' if they stay away from turnovers, but Indy is +6 in turnover margin.  Prediction: Colts win and cover (-9.5)

Miami Dolphins (3-4) at New England Patriots (5-2) 10 AM - CBS
The last time the Dolphins were in Foxboro, they unveiled the Wildcat offense and in the weeks since then we have seen it catch like wildfire throughout the NFL.  But we have also seen this season that though the Dolphins can run the ball very well and dominate the clock, they just aren't a very good team.  They held the ball for twice as long as Indy did earlier this year and still lost because they gave up big play after big play.  Last I checked, New England had some "big-play-ability." Prediction: Patriots win and cover (-10.5)

Green Bay Packers (4-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-7) 10 AM
The Bucs will have a new quarterback this week and may have a slightly different feel to them, having had a bye week to remake their struggling offense.  But let's face it, rookie Josh Freeman (the new starting quarterback) was third on the depth chart to start the season behind two guys that stunk it up.  However the Bucs are at home and there is the possibility that the Packers will be looking past the dismal Buccaneers at the Cowboys next week.  There is also the possibility that Aaron Rodgers (the league's passer rating leader) throws for 400 yards and 5 touchdowns.  Prediction: Packers win and cover (-10.5)

Kansas City Chiefs (1-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-4) 10 AM
Detroit Lions (1-6) at Seattle Seahawks (2-5) 1:05 PM
Tennessee Titans (1-6) at San Francisco 49ers (3-4) 1:15 PM
I got a cortisone shot in my wrist yesterday and don't feel like these games are worth the effort or pain of typing about them.  Prediction: Jaguars, Seahawks, and 49ers win and cover (-6.5, -10.5, and -4.5, respectively)

Lock of the Week: Carolina Panthers (3-4) at New Orleans Saints (7-0) 1:05 PM
Jake Delhomme didn't throw a pick last week, but he only threw the ball 15 times, while Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams piled up 270 rushing yards.  They won't run like that against New Orleans and Delhomme will have to make plays with his arm...that's not a recipe for success lately.  Carolina has to be perfect just to stay with New Orleans, and they won't be.  The Saints weren't able to put Atlanta away last week, but they'll get another double digit win this week, making it 4 out of 5 at home this season.  Prediction: Saints win and cover (-14.5)

San Diego Chargers (4-3) at New York Giants (5-3) 1:15 PM - CBS
Enough time has passed that this is no longer a grudge match for the Chargers who may have felt slighted when Eli Manning said he'd rather play in New York.  More importantly for both teams, it is a must-win game to stay in the playoff race.  The Chargers stumbled out of the gate as the Broncos bolted to a huge lead, and the Giants have stumbled lately, letting the Cowboys and Eagles pass them by.  Neither star runningback is performing this season, so the game will rest on the shoulders of their backups (Darren Sproles and Ahmad Bradshaw) the defenses.  Once again, if the Giants' pass rush can get to Phillip Rivers, the Giants will roll at home.  If he stays upright in the pocket, he will torch them like the last three pass-first offenses the Giants have faced.  Prediction: Giants win, Chargers cover (+4.5)

NFL Week 8 Preview

Week 8 features five fantastic games: divisional rivalry games, battles between playoff favorites, bad blood.  And then there are the rest: likely blowups, bad teams playing bad teams, likely naps.  Sadly, Fox and CBS are sticking L.A. viewers with probably the worst two games Saturday morning.  Fox chose the potential blowout that is San Francisco at Indianapolis over a playoff rematch that also happens to be a division rivalry with bad blood, which also happens to feature the same two cities that are meeting in the World Series later that day (Giants at Eagles). CBS is sticking us with the potential blowout that is Oakland at San Diego rather than either Denver at Baltimore, or Miami at the Jets.  So as if you needed a reason to go to a sports bar on Sunday, watching the good games on satellite should give you all the reason you need.

Game of the Week: Minnesota Vikings (6-1) at Green Bay Packers (4-2) 1:15 PM - Fox
Apparently at some point, the Vikings quarterback used to be in the Packers' franchise, so this is a sort homecoming for home or whatever.  We'll see if that story get any media attention, but perhaps a more important story is that fact that the Vikings stranglehold on this division will wither considerably with a loss to the Packers.  The teams are both very good and very evenly matched, and weather should not play a significant rolle, so the game will likely swing on who takes care of the ball.  Green Bay's turnover margin is +10 this season, while Minnesota's is +7.  So no solid hints there either.  When in doubt, go with the home team.  Prediction: Packers win , Vikings cover (+3.5)

Miami Dolphins (2-4) at New York Jets (4-3) 10 AM
Rex Ryan's aggressive, blitzing defense had huge problems with the Dolphins' wildcat offense in their earlier matchup this season in Miami.  The Dolphins ran all over the Jets.  But they still were only able to scrape together a 3-point win in their own building.  You can expect Ryan to have made a few changes to the Jets' defensive attack, and you can expect the Jets to split the season series with Miami with a win in New Jersey.  Prediction: Jets win and cover (-3.5)

Denver Broncos (6-0) at Baltimore Ravens (3-3) 10 AM
A few weeks ago, both of these teams were undefeated and this game looked like it might surprisingly play an early role in the AFC playoff home field chase.  Baltimore has been snake-bitten since, but the Broncos' luck hasn't changed yet.  The Ravens' Ray Rice will be pitted against the league's best run defense and he may have to win this one on his own.  Denver's Kyle Orton has been nearly perfect this season (just 1 interception) and while he is a fine quarterback, you would have to expect that his and the team's luck has to end sometime.  When?  Against this defense is as good a guess as any.  Prediction: Ravens win, Broncos voer (+3.5)

New York Giants (5-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-2) 10 AM
The Giants beat up on their weak, early season opponents, but have lost two in-a-row to perhaps the Conference's two best teams.  This week they fight to remain on top in the NFC East against the team that ended their Super Bowl defense in the playoffs last season.  The Eagles have been quite inconsistent this season and there is no telling which team will show up.  Injuries plague both teams, but if the Giants can run and ball and put pressure on Donovan McNabb (which are supposedly this team's strengths), they will get revenge on the road.  Prediction: Giants win and cover (+2.5)

Atlanta Falcons (4-2) at New Orleans Saints (6-0) Monday 5:30 PM
Atlanta allows teams to move the ball all over the field - they're in the bottom 10 in yards allowed.  But they are in the top 10 in points allowed.  So the question Monday night is, how far can the Falcons bend before Drew Brees breaks them?  And keep in mind that the Saints have tended to make just about everyone break this year.  In fact, they have punted the second fewest times in all of football this year.  So if they get the ball, they're gonna score.  It will be up to Atlanta's Michael Turner to make sure the ball is in his hands, and not Brees.'  Prediction: Saints win and cover (-9.5)

Houston Texans (4-3) at Buffalo Bills (3-4) 10 AM
The story here is the Bills' defense.  They have picked off 9 passes in their last two games, but they are also 32nd against the run.  So the game will probably be put into Steve Slaton's hands, and lately that has been a good thing for Houston.  Buffalo's offense is a complete mess, with their quarterback spot wide open, thus wasting Lee Evans fine work at receiver.  And they also have some other receiver leading the league in drops, which isn't helping the quarterback stability.  Prediction: Texans win, Bills cover (+3.5)

Cleveland Browns (1-6) at Chicago Bears (3-3) 10 AM
This week's sign that parity is dead in the NFL: The Bears are 3-3 and favored by 2 touchdowns...and that's not the biggest spread this week!  Matt Forte has been terrible running the ball for Chicago this year, but fanstasy owners across the nation can rejoice as he gets to face the Brown's defense this week (2nd worst against the run).  As long as Jay Cutler is only throwing to the guys in the same colored shirt as him, the Bears will roll.  Unfortunately, he's thrown to the others guys the second most in the league this year (10).  Prediction: Bears win, Browns cover (+13.5)

Seattle Seahawks (2-4) at Dallas Cowboys (4-2) 10 AM
If you think the Cowboys have played at home every week this season, you're wrong.  They also had a bye.  Actually they've split home and away this year, but with all the talk about the Bigger-In-Texas Dome, it just seems like it they're there every week.  They are in Week 8 and allegedly so will the Seahawks.  But the Seahawks haven't shown up for most of their games this year so as long as the Cowboys run the ball a lot and keep it out of Tony Romo's skilled but somewhat turnover-prone hands, they will win.  Prediction: Cowboys win and cover (-9.5)

St. Louis Rams (0-7) at Detroit Lions (1-5) 10 AM
Suppose for a moment that you were playing a team that was 0-16 last year.  And they've only won once this year.  And their starting quarterback and franchise wide receiver are likely out.  You'd figure you were a favorite, right?  Nope.  No matter what Steven Jackson does, the Rams cannot find the endzone and the Rams look like serious contenders for worst team in NFL history (5-34 in last 39 games, 17 straight losses).  So again, when you can't tell the difference between two teams, pick the home team.  Prediction: Lions win, Rams cover (+3.5)

Lock of the Week: San Francisco 49ers (3-3) at Indianapolis Colts (6-0) 10 AM - Fox
Former franchise player/new starter Alex Smith took over at quarterback last week and seemed to begin to turn the ship around (though he ran out of time in Atlanta to win that one).  It would be a much nicer story if he could take them out and win this week, but the scheduling gods dumped a Giants pile of Peyton Manning on his doorstep.  The only way San Francisco keeps this close is if everything goes their way.  Manning needs to be off his game, Smith needs to be on his.  Frank Gore needs to dominate on the ground, and Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis need to dominate downfield.  Don't hold your breath for any of those five things.  Prediction: Colts win and cover (-9.5)

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3) at Tennessee Titans (0-6) 1:05 PM
This game is further proof that the teams will play every game on their schedules, whether anyone cares or comes to the games or not.  Vince Young is back at quarterback for the Titans, and really it can't get worse than losing every game, so why not?  Despite their record, Tennessee is actually top 10 in run defense (and you figure they see a lot of running since they're always trailing), so if they can stand up and stop Maurice Jones-Drew, they could get up off the mat finally.  It's not good when you are the underdog to a team that is 0-6, but David Garrard will manage this one just well enough to pull off the massive upset.  Prediction: Jaguars win and cover (+2.5)

Oakland Raiders (2-5) at San Diego Chargers (3-3) 1:05 PM - CBS
The Chargers opened the season by scraping together a narrow win in Week 1 in Oakland.  A loss at home to the Raiders in Week 8 could basically end their season, but with this being the largest point-spread of the season thus far, that shouldn't happen.  The Chargers are 3 games behind Denver and already lost at home to the Broncos, and play five potention playoff teams in their final 8 games.  Oakland's pass defense is decent but they are awful against the run (30th: 169.7 yards per game), so if LaDainian Tomlinson can find some of his old magic, he may keep the Chargers alive in the AFC West race for at least one more week. Prediction: Chargers win, Raiders cover (+16.5)

Carolina Panthers (2-4) at Arizona Cardinals (4-2) 1:15 PM
Arizona hosts a bad team that they should crush, sandwiched between an impressive win at Giants Stadium and another huge test at Soldier Field next week.  That officially labels this one as a trap game for the almost-champs, but then when you run the ball as badly as the Cardinals do, they're all trap games.  Jake Delhomme's recent bout of interception-itis (13 this season in 6 games) began last year in a playoff loss to the Cardinals.  Carolina's defense seems ready to take on the Cards' passing game - they allow the fewest yards per game of anyone.  But they've also faced the fewest passing attempts and are one of the worst in completion percentage allowed.  Kurt Warner will test them, likely throwing close to 40 times, and he is certainly known for his efficiency.  Prediction: Arizona wins and covers (-9.5)

All times are Pacific and TV airing info is for the Los Angeles area only. See this website for what's airing in your area.


Season Predictions: 55-48 against the spread, 69-34 straight up
Last Week: 7-6 against the spread, 10-3 straight up

NFL Week 7 Hangover

Week 7 Scores

Arizona Cardinals 24 - New York Giants 17

Houston Texans 24 - San Francisco 49ers 21

Green Bay Packers 31 - Cleveland Browns 3

San Diego Chargers 37 - Kansas City Chiefs 7

Indianapolis Colts 42 - St. Louis Rams 6

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 - Minnesota Vikings 17

New England Patriots 35 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

New York Jets 38 - Oakland Raiders 0

Buffalo Bills 20 - Carolina Panthers 9

Cincinnati Bengals 45 - Chicago Bears 10

Dallas Cowboys 37 - Atlanta Falcons 21

New Orleans Saints 46 - Miami Dolphins 34

Philadelphia Eagles 27 - Washington Redskins 17

Big Winners

-The Arizona Cardinals (4-2) won their final regular season game at Giants Stadium, where they'd been 2-15 in history, and now sit alone atop the NFC West thanks to San Francisco's loss.

-Odd-on favorites went 11-2 (the Giants and Panthers lost), and covered the spread in 10 of 13 games (Houston won but didn't cover the spread).

-Fans of blowouts must have been thrilled in Week 7 as only two games were decided by under 10 points, and six were decided by 28 or more!

-The Steelers' defense held the previously undefeated Vikings to just 17 points, scored two touchdowns, and held NFL rushing leader Adrian Peterson under 70 yards.

-NFL fans have not had to see or hear much from Terrell Owens since he was banished to Buffalo.  Owens had three catches for 27 yaaaawwwn.

-All teams with higher draft picks than the Panthers can expect some trade offers before Draft Day as Carolina will likely want to trade up and get a quarterback. The Panthers current quarterback, Jake Delhomme, has thrown 4 touchdowns and 13 interceptions on the season.

-Bengals runningback Cedric Benson felt that the Bears had mistreated him during his time in Chicago.  So he took it out on them by out-rushing Chicago's new star runningback by 165 yards (Carson Palmer's 5 touchdowns didn't hurt either).

-The New Orleans Saints were down 21 points on the road in a city where they've never won.  But that just gave Drew Brees an excuse to stop pretending to want to use the running game.  New Orleans won thanks in part to a 22-0 fourth quarter.

Big Losers

-The Oakland Raiders (2-5) followed up a shocking upset of Philadelphia by getting shut out at home by a team that had been struggling to stay afloat for their last three games (the Jets). 

-Top Fantasy Runningbacks have generally been a disappointment this season, and that held true in Week 7.  The top 8 in most drafts this year averaged 3.6 yards per carry and combined for only three touchdowns and one concussion (Peterson, Turner, Jones-Drew, Forte, Westbrook, Williams, Tomlinson, and Gore). 

-49ers quarterback Shaun Hill lost his starting job after starting out 6 for 11 and guiding the 49ers to a 21-0 halftime deficit.  Backup and former #1 over all pick Alex Smith then entered the game and led the team to three touchdowns in four possessions. 

-Chiefs runningback Larry Johnson has another dismal performance on the field (16 carries for 49 yards), and then followed it up by badmouthing his coach and using a homosexual slur to refer to a fan on Twitter.  Johnson apologized Monday afternoon, but not before referring to members of the media with the same slur Monday morning.  But I'm sure the apology was sincere.

-The State of Missouri is 1-13 on the season and has been outscored by 16.2 points per game (KC and St. Louis).

-The United Kingdom had to endure watching the Tampa Bay Buccaneers up close in the NFL's misguided third annual trip to Wembley Stadium.

Fantasy Studs - The 10 Most Valuable Players of Week 7

1 - Miles Austin (WR-Dal) 171 yards recieving, 2 touchdowns, and was probably still available last week

2 - Vernon Davis (TE-SF) 93 yards receiving, 3 touchdowns

3 - Ricky Williams (RB-Mia) 80 yards rushing, 3 touchdowns, and was probably still available as well

4 - Shonn Greene (RB-NYJ) 144 yard rushing, 2 touchdowns, and was definately still available

5 - DeSean Jackson (WR-Phi) 67 yards rushing, 1 touchdown, 69 yards receiving, 1 touchdown)

6 - Carson Palmer (QB-Cin) 233 yards passing, 5 touchdowns

7 - Cedric Benson (RB-Cin) 189 yards rushing, 1 touchdown

8 - Chad Ochocinco (WR-Cin) 118 yards, 2 touchdowns

9 - Tony Romo (QB-Dal) 311 yards passing, 3 touchdowns, 31 yards rushing

10 - Ryan Grant (RB-GB) 148 yards rushing, 1 touchdown

Fantasy Thuds - High Expectations...Dismal Results

1 - Frank Gore (RB-SF) 32 yards rushing, 15 yards receiving

2 - Pierre Thomas (RB-NO) 30 yards rushing, 14 yards receiving

3 - Jonathan Stewart (RB-Car) 25 yards rushing, 20 yards receiving

4 - Marion Barber (RB-Dal) 47 yards rushing, 1 yard receiving

5 - Matt Forte (RB-Chi) 24 yards rushing, 25 yards receiving

6 - Tony Gonzalez (TE-Atl) 37 yards receiving

7 - Brett Favre (QB-Min) 334 yards passing, 1 interception, 1 fumble

8 - Donovan McNabb (QB-Phi) 156 yards passing, 1 touchdown

9 - Andre Johnson (WR-Hou) 62 yards receiving

10 - Eli Manning (QB-NYG) 243 yards passing, 1 touchdown, 3 interceptions

The Front Seven - The NFL's 7 best teams through Week 7
1 - New Orleans Saints (6-0, 1st NFC South) Total Offense: 1st (427.3), Total Defense: 11th (306.7), +18.5 ppg
2 - Indianapolis Colts (6-0, 1st AFC South) Total Offense 4th (402.5), Total Defense: 9th (291.7), +17.0 ppg
3 - New England Patriots (5-2, 1st AFC East) Total Offense: 3rd (406.0), Total Defense: 6th (285.7), +14.3 ppg
4 - Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2, T-1st AFC North) Total Offense: 7th (383.0), Total Defense: 8th (291.0), +5.4 ppg
5 - Denver Broncos (6-0, 1st AFC West) Total Offense: 9th (368.7), Total Defense: 2nd (262.5), +11.2 ppg
6 - Minnesota Vikings (6-1, 1st NFC North) Total Offense: 12th (353.6), Total Defense: 17th (330.0), +8.3 ppg
7 - New York Giants (5-2, 1st NFC East) Total Offense: 6th (391.3), Total Defense: 1st (262.0), +7.4 ppg

 

Also published on SoCalSportsHub.com.  Check back Friday for a look ahead at Week 8.