NCAA Tourney 2011: Nicole's Crystal Ball (Part 4)

Third Round

Ohio State over George Mason: "Ooh, I really like the masons.  1 vs. 8 though.  Fat guy vs. Free Masons.  Fat people make me feel better."  Result: correct [Note: The "fat guy" is the Buckeye mascot.]

Clemson over Princeton: "Tigers vs. Tigers! But Clementines are cute and yummy." Result: incorrect, both teams had lost in the 2nd round.

Syracuse over Xavier: "Professor X vs. Jeff.  6 vs. 3.  Jeff gets a little help; let's have him go one more." Result: incorrect, Syracuse lost to Marquette in this game. [Note: Jeff is a former co-worker, Jeff Suss.]

North Carolina over Georgia: "Upsetting UNC?  I don't like Peaches that much." Result: correct [Note: "Peaches" is a friend, Andy Etters, who is from Georgia.]

Duke over Michigan: "Ooh, Wolverines...but it's 1 vs. 8.  Who did you pick? [Duke]  That dude coaches the Olympics.  Yes to Duke." Result: correct

Arizona over Texas: "[In Will Farrell's George W. Bush voice:] 'Don't mess with Texas.'  Wildcat vs. a longhorn.  That's an interesting fight.  The wildcat is quicker; wildcats would win.  We've gotta start getting more serious about this mascot thing." Result: correct

Connecticut over Missouri: "Connecticut!  It's our street!  And you were born there.  Ooh, that means first boyfriend vs. second.  But I married the second one.  Boom!" Result: correct

San Diego State over Penn State: "San Diego is a whale's vagina.  Look it up; it's in the Geneva Convention." Result: correct [Note: These are paraphrases of two different lines from two different Will Farrell movies.  Between these, the Texas line and her obsession with cougars because of Talladega Nights, she's basing most of her picks on his comedy in one way or another.] 

Kansas over Illinois: "1 vs. 9.  1 always goes at least two rounds." Result: correct

Vanderbilt over Morehead State: "V." Result: incorrect, Vanderbilt had lost in the second round.

Georgetown over St. Peter's: "Aren't they just bulldogs with spikey collars?  Do that one." Result: incorrect, both teams had lost in the second round.

Notre Dame over Texas A&M: "Notre Dame!" Result: incorrect, Notre Dame lost of Florida State in this game.

Pittsburgh over Butler: "Panther is close to cougar.  Although Pittsburgh does have an NFL team.  [I told her that Butler is near Indianapolis, which also has an NFL team.]  Both have NFL teams, but a cougar would kill a bulldog." Result: incorrect, Butler won this game.

Wisconsin over Utah State: "Double-U beats U." Result: correct

BYU over Gonzaga: "Cougs! [As Farrell's Ricky Bobby:] 'How can I control my heartbeat!?'" Result: correct

UCLA over Florida: "Ooh, that's a tough one.  Go Sharks, but a gator vs. a bear?  Now that would be awesome.  [As Jim Halpert:] 'What kind of bear is best?'  Bear is best." Result: incorrect, Florida won this game. [She said "Go Sharks" because the Florida fans do the same arm-movement-chomp as San Jose Sharks fans.]

(Results: 9-7 but with seven-of-eight elite eight teams left, three-of-four final four, one finalist, and her champion)

Sweet Sixteen

Ohio State over Clemson: "Oranges can't beat fat people.  The fat people would just eat them." Result: incorrect, Kentucky won this game.

North Carolina over Syracuse: "We already helped Jeff for two rounds.  And I like blue." Result: correct

Duke over Arizona: [As Farrell in Old School:] "You're my boy, Blue!" Result: incorrect, Arizona won this game.

Connecticut over San Diego State: "Whoa, this is interesting.  Alright, let's play this out.  Aztecs vs. Huskies.  San Diego vs. Connecticut so where we met vs. where you were born.  San Diego has an NFL team that I don't like.  Wait, is this 'UConn'?  I love UConn!"  Result: correct

Kansas over Vanderbilt: "Jayhawk is like an Indian, right? [It's a bird.] Oh.  Well a Commodore is like a pirate.  And that guy from Pirates was a total sissy, so Kansas is more legit.  More American.  And they're the 1-seed." Result: correct [Note: I assume the guy from Pirates is Johnny Depp.]

Notre Dame over Georgetown: "Both Catholics, oh shoot.  The numbers are 2 and 6.  And I've been to Notre Dame.  [We've been to Georgetown, too.]  Yeah, but I was in Notre Dame's gym.  And I was the mascot there.  [Actually, I was the mascot there.  You were a cheerleader.]  Shut up.  And don't write that.  It's St. Patrick's Day; Irish win." Result: incorrect, VCU beat Florida State in this game. [Note: All of that happened in the 2000 Women's NCAA Tournament when USD played at Notre Dame in the first round.  Nicole was our school's mascot but stepped in for an ill cheerleader for that game and I went as the mascot so I could go to the game for free during spring break.  But I'm gonna be in big trouble when she sees I wrote that.]

Wisconsin over Pittsburgh: "Cougars vs. Beavers?  Please.  [Actually it's Panthers and Badgers.]  Whatever.  I hate Pittsburgh; the Steelers suck and that guy needs a haircut.  And my cousin, Blake, went to Wisconsin and he needs good news." Result: incorrect, Butler won this game.  [Note: I'm not sure the guy who needs a haircut is, but I assume Troy Polamalu.  Blake was in a terrible car accident a few months ago and is recovering.]

BYU over UCLA: "Oh man, a coug vs. a bear!  Cougs.  I have to be consistent." Result: incorrect, Florida won this game. [Note: Consistent with what?  They're the only cougars in the tournament.]

(Results: 3-5, with one Final Four team, one finalist and her champion left)

Elite Eight

Ohio State over North Carolina: "What city is Ohio State in? [Columbus] I do like Christopher Columbus. But I like UNC's blue.  But our frisbee team is Flip Cup and we're red.  They're both public.  I like Duke better than Carolina." Result: incorrect, Kentucky won this game.

Connecticut over Duke: "Whoa.  That's hard.  I love Duke.  And UConn's blue too.  And it's Connecticut.  1 vs. 3.  That's close.  What did you pick? [Duke] But you're from there and we live on it.  Blue Devils and Huskies.  I picked Duke last year, so not Duke again." Result: correct

Notre Dame over Kansas: "Notre Dame." Result: incorrect, VCU won this game.

BYU over Wisconsin: "Cougs." Result: incorrect, Butler beat Florida in this game.

(Results: 1-3, with one finalist and her champion still left)

Final Four

Connecticut over Ohio State: [Long pause while considering this one closely.] "UConn has a cooler name.  And we live on Connecticut Street, and you were born there.  And all Ohio has going for them is flip cup and fat people." Result: correct
Notre Dame over BYU: "Catholics vs. Mormons.  Blowout!" Result: incorrect, Butler beat VCU in this game.
(Results: 1-1, with her champion still left)

Championship Game
Connecticut over Notre Dame: "I really like Notre Dame, but I just can't do it.  The NFL really pissed me off.  So UConn." Result: correct [Note: While Notre Dame is not in an NFL city, it is in Indiana, home of the Colts.]

Tie-Breaker: Championship Score
"Connecticut will get 78 because you were born there in that year.  And Notre Dame will get 73 because 7 and 3 are the holy numbers.  7 sins and the Trinity!  So 78-73."

Some new patterns have emerged.  Any vague connection to any Will Farrell movie or line is usually worth one or two picks.  This used to just be for Talladega Nights, but it seems to now be all of them.  

Notre Dame is her favorite school, for sure.  Second is Duke and she obviously is starting to like Connecticut a lot too.

Part 1: Results through the Round of 64

Part 2: Statistical Comparisons of Nicole's system vs. AP, RPI, seeds and Sagarin through Round of 32

Part 3: Nicole's Round of 64 Pick

Part 4: Nicole's Round of 32 through Championship Picks

Part 5: Final Statistical Results (coming Thursday)

Tourney Bonus Coverage: The Jim Nantz-pun-o-meter game (coming soon)

NCAA Tourney 2011: Nicole's Crystal Ball (Part 3)

The dust has settled and Nicole won both bracket contests she entered again this year.  So whether it makes any sense or not, we have to allow for the fact that whatever she is doing works.  How well?  She ranked in the 98th percentile nationally on Yahoo! and approximately 1.1 million people were entered there.  So pretty well.

As you will see from her picks and reasoning below, and as I've written before, she is partial to cougars (or similar), the color blue, states/schools she likes or has some connection to, schools that start with "V", single-word names, intimidating mascots, private/Catholic schools, and, if all else fails, better seeds.  She also said this year that she was against schools in NFL cities because of the lockout (actually it was because she got me the Sunday Ticket for Christmas and I may not get to enjoy it because of the lockout).  She also said that she no longer favors schools from the South or around New Orleans because the Saints won the Super Bowl.

As always, I told her the schools, seeds and mascots.  Sometimes she asked for more information like colors, cities and public/private.  Sometimes she knew that already.  Believe it or not, no alcohol was consumed prior to picking, but it was really late at night.

East Round 2
Ohio State over UTSA: "Aren't the Buckeyes that fat guy? But I don't want to look stupid, so I pick the far people.  They'll motivate me to lose weight." Result: correct
George Mason over Villanova: "Tough because it's a V school.  But National Treasure had the Masons and Nicholas Cage needs a break. Result: correct
Clemson over West Virginia: "Clementine oranges: cute name though Tigers are way better." Result: incorrect, West Virginia went on to the 3rd round.
Princeton over Kentucky: "Wildcats vs. Tiger is a great battle.  Let's do Princeton; I really like them.  And KFC sucks." Result: incorrect, Kentucky went on to the Final Four. [Note: Nicole knows nothing about Princeton basketball and presumably likes them because they're smart kids.]
Xavier over Marquette: "Isn't 'Xavier' spelled with an 'x'?  That guy from X-Men is pretty bad-ass.  That would be a huge word on Words with Friends [like scrabble]." Result: incorrect, Marquette went on to the Sweet 16.
Syracuse over Indiana State: "Didn't Syracuse win last year? [No]  Jeff [Suss, a former colleague] went there and he has to move to Portland.  Orangemen is a really cool mascot, like my Clementines!  Sycamores is lame dude.  Trees?" Result: correct [Note: When I told her that Larry Bird went to Indiana State, she said, "Bird is overrated."]
Georgia over Washington: "Peaches [Andy Etters, a former ultimate teammate] is from Georgia.  Do they have the NFL? [They both do.]  Oh man, the Seahawks is Pete Carroll.  Bulldogs vs. Huskies...hmm...that's a tough one.  I really don't like Carroll." Result: incorrect, Washington went on to the 3rd round.
North Carolina over Long Island: "Long Island is barely even a state. [In fact, it's not one.] I know UNC is good and plus, they match USD's colors." Result: correct

West Round 2
Duke over Hampton: "The Hamptons suck.  The Hamptons is like wannabe-Malibu.  It's all rocks.  Stupid." Result: correct [Note: She's never been to the Hamptons and I think she's thinking of Cape Cod.]
Michigan over Tennessee: "Right off the bat, I was thinking Wolverines because we already have a Xavier.  That would be cool.  Plus, "Volunteer"?  That's really your mascot?  Does a Wolverine have claws?  Wait, is it a fictional character? [She forgets that it's a real animal every year.] I feel like Wolverines is better than Cougars." Result: incorrect, Michigan went on to the 3rd round.  [Note: This Wolverines vs. Cougars thing really floored me.  Cougar-superiority has been at the core of her entire system for years.  I though she was doomed after this.]
Arizona over Memphis: "Wildcats are pretty sissy, right...vs. a tiger?  David Levin [co-worker] went to Arizona and I promised him one.  He made me feel welcome at work." Result: correct
Texas over Oakland: "Isn't that the Texas where Wendy went?  Oakland here sucks.  But I do work there.  Oh, Wendy.  Screw her!  She moved away from us.  What's the other team's number? [13 vs. 4].  No chance.  Plus, I like Wendy. [Note: We actually moved away almost a year before Wendy did, but she did move further.]
Missouri over Cincinnati: "Bearcats?  That name is just too long.  But I had an old boyfriend that went to Mizzou.  How can I take that school seriously?  How do you even spell Cincinnati?  Oh!  The Bengals!  F those guys." Result: incorrect, Cincinnati went on to the 3rd round.
Connecticut over Bucknell: "Buck 'em off the list!" Result: correct [Note: she was extremely proud of this pun.  Jim Nantz would have been, as well.]
Penn State over Temple: "Stupidest mascots ever. [I explained that a Nittany Lion is a local mountain lion.] You have a Penn State shirts, right?  And 'Owl'?  Seriously?" Result: incorrect, Temple went on to the 3rd round.
San Diego State over Northern Colorado: "SDSU is a 2?  Northern Colorado...too many words ["San Diego State" has more words] Both have NFL teams, so it's a tie.  Go with the numbers [seeds]." Result: correct

Southwest Round 2
Kansas over Boston: "Terriers?  Like the dog?  Those are kick-dogs." Result: correct [A kick-dog is apparently a dog small enough to punt.]
Illinois over UNLV: "How can you even take a school seriously from Las Vegas?" Result: correct
Vanderbilt over Richmond: "Spiders?  Jeff [Donlevy, my brother-in-law] went to Vandy and it's a "V" school.  And he let us stay at their house for a week over Christmas.  And he gave us Dom Perignon at New Years!" Result: incorrect, Richmond went on to the Sweet 16.
Morehead State over Louisville: "I have a hard time taking that one seriously because it sounds like Louis Vuitton.  Morehead is funny.  Go with the funny one." Result: correct [Note: It's moment like this where you realize her genius.  She thinks sounding like a designer disqualifies you from winning, but a penis joke makes you win.]
Georgetown over Virginia Commonwealth: "Too many words." Result: incorrect, VCU went on to the Final Four.
St. Peter's over Purdue: "I like St. Peter's Basilica.  And it's Catholic and private.  Is the other one Catholic?  [No]  Both mascots are kinda lame.  14 over 3...that's impossible.  But 'Purdue' sounds like 'poo.'" Result: incorrect, Purdue went on to the 3rd round.
Texas A&M over Florida State: "Aggies?  Well that's stupid.  Although Jim and Steve [my brothers] were Aggies [at UC Davis].  Wait, is this the Florida that does the 'chomp, chomp'?  [No, this is the tomahawk-ones.]  That tomahawk thing is annoying and pretentious.  I pick the non-Florida one.  I mean, what are they, hailing Hitler?" Result: incorrect, Florida State went on to the Sweet 16.
Notre Dame over Akron: "Notre Dame!  Yeah!  Catholic and Irish!  I don't know the other one, 'Zips' is pretty sick, dude." Result: correct

Southeast Round 2
Pittsburgh over UNC-Asheville: "Panthers, ooh, that's like a cougar." Result: correct
Butler over Old Dominion: "Monarchs?  Butterflies?  Gimme a break." Result: correct [Note: "Monarchs" actually refers to actual monarchs, not butterflies.]
Utah State over Kansas State: "No more wildcats.  Kansas has the Chiefs, so Utah it is!" Result: incorrect, Kansas State went on to the 3rd round. [Note: when I told her that the KC Chiefs play in Missouri, not Kansas, she said, "That's stupid.  Why did the NFL name them the 'Kansas City Chiefs' then?"]
Wisconsin over Belmont: "Didn't that horse die at the Belmont?  Anthony and Adria [friends] and my cousins went to Wisconsin. Result: correct [Note: I think she's thinking of Barbaro who was put down after breaking his leg at the Preakness in 2006.  Either way, impressive knowledge.]
Gonzaga over St. John's: "I really don't like St. John's because Angelina Jolie is the spokesperson.  And Justin Howard [friend]!  WCC-representation!" Result: correct [Note: I have no idea what the Angelina Jolie line means.]
UCLA over Michigan State: "U-C-L-A-fight-fight-fight!  I feel like if you've been to a game, you should root for them.  Unless they're a-holes.  Like Chargers fans.  Screw SDSU." Result: correct
Florida over UCSB: "Chomp-chomp! Santa Barbara is a part school.  Plus, Chris [Valente, a longtime friend of mine and UCSB alumnus] GTL's."  Result: correct

I will continue with the rest of Nicole's picks tomorrow.  She was a pedestrian 21-11 with this picks in the first round, but these things aren't won in the first round anyway.

Part 1: Results through the Round of 64
Part 2: Statistical Comparisons of Nicole's system vs. AP, RPI, seeds and Sagarin through Round of 32
Part 4: Nicole's Round of 32 through Championship picks
Part 5: Final Statistical Results (coming Thursday)
Tourney Bonus Coverage: The Jim Nantz-pun-o-meter game (coming soon)

NCAA Tourney 2011: Nicole's Crystal Ball (Part 2)

Since my wife first started filling out her own bracket two years ago, I have come to realize that while her system makes absolutely no sense, it works.  So this year, I decided to try and quantify why.

Categories Nicole Uses:

Better seeds 37-11

Best/Worst Conferences (listing only those with multiple bids)

• ACC 7-1 (3-0 in Round of 32)
• MWC 4-1 (2-0 in Round of 32)
• Colonial 4-2
• Big East 9-9 (2-5 in Round of 32)
• CUSA 0-2
• MAC 0-2

BCS Conferences vs. Non-BCS Conferences 18-8

Best/Worst States (listing only those with multiple bids)

• Florida 4-0
• Wisconsin 4-0
• North Carolina 5-1
• Alabama 0-2
• New Jersey 0-2
• Tennessee 0-4

Mascots

• Animals vs. People 11-7
• Cats vs. Dogs 3-2
• Wildcats 5-2
• Huskies 3-1
• Bulldogs 4-3
• Tigers 1-4
• Ancient Greeks (Trojans and Spartans) 0-3

Best/Worst Colors

• Red 14-9 (6-2 in Round of 32)
• Blue 33-28
• White 19-16
• Purple 3-3 (eliminated)
• Black 7-11
• Green 1-3 (eliminated)

Best/Worst Color Combinations

• Blue/Red 6-1 (3-0 in Round of 32)
• Blue/White 14-8 (6-1 in Round of 32)
• Orange/blue 4-3
• Single color 2-3
• Blue/Gold 6-7 (1-4 in Round of 32)
• Green/White 0-2
• Blue/Gray 0-2

Public vs. Private 9-5

East of the Mississippi vs. West 9-11

Union vs. Confederacy 8-10

Totals for various systems:

• Nicole’s Actual Picks 30-18 – 62.5%
• Better Regular Season Final RPI vs. Worse 33-15 – 68.8% (East 10-2, West 11-1, SW 4-8 and SE 8-4)
• Better Regular Season Final AP Ranking vs. Worse 30-16 – 65.2% (East 9-3, West 10-1, SW 4-8 and SE 7-4)
• Better Seed vs. Worse 36-12 – 75.0% (East 10-2, West 12-0, SW 4-8 and SE 10-2)
• Better Regular Season Final Sagarin rating vs. Worse 37-11 – 77.1% (East 10-2, West 12-0, SW 5-7 and SE 10-2)

*These results were not adjusted after each round; they reflect what the bracket would be like had it been picked this way before the Tournament.

Points of interest:

In all four of the more scientific systems just named, they would have 6-of-8 Elite Eight teams left (missing Pitt and Notre Dame), 3-of-4 Final Four teams left (missing Pitt), and both Finalists.  Nicole has 7-of-8 Elite Eight teams left (missing Notre Dame), 3-of-4 Final Four teams (missing Notre Dame), and one Finalist (missing Notre Dame).  So she did worse than all four heading into the Sweet 16, but they way points generally multiply in later rounds, she is actual in a far better position than all four.

In the 11 games whose results featured a worse seed winning, one was a 9 beating an 8, one was a 5 beating a 4, and four others featured “upset” wins by major national programs (Florida State, Gonzaga and Marquette twice) – hardly “Cinderella” material.  That means through 48 games, only five game were truly unforeseeable upsets: 11 VCU over 6 Georgetown, 12 Richmond over 5 Vanderbilt, 13 Morehead State over 4 Louisville (which Nicole picked), 11 VCU over 3 Purdue, and 8 Butler over 1 Pittsburgh.  We all should have seen the other 89% coming.

NCAA Tourney 2011: Nicole's Crystal Ball (Part 1)

Making picks for the NCAA men's basketball tournament has basically become a sport in and of itself.  National media outlets reserve year-round coverage for "bracketology," seemingly anyone who has ever watched a game of college basketball now writes a blog about who got robbed and how to make your bracket, and likely more people join tourney bracket groups than vote for president.  Speaking of which, the President now does an annual bracket special on ESPN and he actually went 15-1 on day 4 on Friday.

For the last two years, I have written about my wife's mystifyingly successful system for picking (she's beating me again).  It is one part basketball knowledge, 4 parts mascot death-match, 2 parts travel log, 2 parts color war, 1 part class-warfare.  But it works.  In a vain attempt to quantify this system, I humbly submit the following statistics for your consideration.  Refer to them at your own risk when filling out your bracket next March.

These statistics are from all 36 games through the first two rounds of the 2011 men's tournament (unless noted otherwise).  All results more than 1 game above or below .500 are listed.

Basketball Knowledge: Seeds, Rankings and Conferences
Better seeds went 25-7 (not including 1st round games which are between teams ranked the same)
AP Top 25 teams went 19-6 (one loss was to another Top-25 team)
ACC: 4-1
Big Ten: 5-2
Colonial: 3-1
Pac 10: 3-1
Big East: 7-4
C-USA: 0-2
Mid-Atlantic: 0-2

Mascot Death-Match
Animals: 25-20  People 9-11
Indians: 3-0  Ancient Greeks 0-3
Birds: 5-4  Cats 7-6  Dogs: 5-5
Tigers: 1-4 (0-4 in Round 2)  Wildcats: 3-1  Bulldogs: 3-2  Terriers 0-2

Travel Log: State vs. State Comparison
Florida: 2-0
Kansas: 2-0
Washington: 2-0
Indiana: 3-1
Virginia: 4-2
Alabama 0-2 (both in Round 1)
Tennessee 0-4

Color War*
Blue: 21-17
Red: 8-7
Gold: 1-3 in Round 1, 5-3 in Round 2
Orange: 2-0 in Round 1, 4-5 in Round 2
Black: 5-9
Blue/Yellow: 2-0
Blue/Red: 3-1
Blue/Gold: 5-3
Black/Gold: 3-5
Blue/Gray: 0-2
Green/White: 0-2
3 Color Schools: 3-5

*Colors are taken from schools' officially listed colors.  Shades of colors went into primary colors in most cases (crimson and cardinal are both just "red" here), unless there were enough of the alternate color to make it worth distinguishing it as its own (gold stands alone from yellow).

Class Warfare
Private schools: 8-15
Public schools: 28-21
Catholic schools: 3-5

So while all these results are preliminary and need a larger sample (i.e.: the rest of the tournament) before we can call any of it infallible and scientifically proven, some working hypotheses:

God is not a basketball fan or the Catholic schools would be doing better.  For the record, Mormons were 1-1.
Alabama and Tennessee schools should stop playing basketball and focus on other endeavors.
Utah State got the biggest screw-job of the year by earning a 12-seed and having to play against a 5-seed  ranked worse than them in the AP poll (USU: 19, Kansas St. 21)
Stricter private school academic standards seem to be outweighing their ability to allegedly bend admission rules to bring in ball players.
Black may be cool, but wear it and you lose.
"Blue" chip recruits apparently take that title to heart when choosing which jersey they'll wear.
Among pets, birds are doing slightly better than cats, with dogs bringing up the rear.  But it's a difference of only percentage points.
Wildcats are much better than Tigers.
The Big East lived up to the hype for the most part (but their 11 bids does nothing more than prove than expansion of the tournament was unnecessary - if you are 11th in your own league, do you really deserve a chance to play for a national title?)
VCU belonged.

At Least I Get To Enjoy The Final Four With No Money On The Line

I haven't checked the message board on the Tourney pool in which I am now assured of losing to my wife and 5-year-old nephew, because I already know what it likely says. And while I am fully aware that what I am about to write is just a smokescreen for the deep, possibly unquenchable shame for my placement in this bracket contest, I feel I deserve some of the credit for my bride having three of the Final Four and both Finals teams left. It seems I am better at giving advice than listening to it myself.

I had planned on doing it this year, and perhaps I still will, but I did not actually compile and write out my rules for picking the NCAA Tournament. Certainly "Never pick Gonzaga" is up there. "Always pick Syracuse to win at least one game further than their seed." "Rely on teams with power over teams that rely on speed and shooting." "No center, no Sweet 16." "Pick at least one win for each senior starter on a power conference team, and senior point guards are worth two."

But there are some new rules I am considering now as well: "Never think a toe injury will actually cause any problems." "Seriously, never pick Gonzaga." "Pick straight chalk at least to the Sweet 16 and stick with the 1-seeds at least to the Elite 8." "Never pick the 'How could they have gotten in; the selection committee is corrupt'-team to lose in the first round." "Any coach who has won a National Championship is worth at least one win that that team should not have won."

The following is a rundown of the questions my wife asks when making her picks. She does this for every game and always in this order. I include this because perhaps there are nuggets of genius buried in it for you to use in your picks next year.

First she will go by the seeds. Unless it is a 6-11 game or closer, she won't even look at an upset. She also has a fair knowledge of who the really good teams are, so this isn't just blind picking on seeds.

Next she determines if she knows anyone who went to either school, if she's ever been to that campus or state, and which is a more desirable vacation spot. Ex-boyfriend went to school in Missouri? Sorry Mizzou...it's an early exit for you. Not interested in going to Minnesota? Good night, Gophers!

If either school has an odd name, or if she'd never heard of them before, that will make her lean heavily the other way, but is not a deal-breaker. Except Farleigh Dickinson, which would probably do it.

Next she will ask if either school is a private school. She will always go with private schools over public schools if she can't otherwise decide. Catholic schools are tops among private schools, of course.

If she still has not made her pick, she will go with the mascots. Cougars trump all mascots because of Ricky Bobby yelling "How can I control my emotions? There's a cougar in the car!" in Talladega Nights. Other than that I am not clear on if she picks which mascot she likes better, which is less weird (sorry Zips, Tide, Governors, Banana Slugs, Anteaters, Blue Hens, Vandals, Golden Flashes...), or which would kill the other in a fight to the death.

And if even the examination of the mascots proves inconclusive, she goes with colors. I am pretty sure the hierarchy here goes blue-red-yellow-green-other, but I am not positive.

And if that still doesn't work, she just goes with my pick. Luckily for her, she did not do that much after the Sweet 16.

How Often Is There A Sports-Related Event Worthy Of Saying "Low And Behold"?

I got to watch my alma mater play hoops tonight for the first time since their second round NCAA tourney game last March. They were hosting St. Mary's, a conference opponent who is currently ranked #27 (AP). Typically teams will get up for a rival who is highly ranked, especially at home, so I was pretty excited about the game.

The game was set to come on a 6 Pacific time, and when I tuned in around quarter to six, the Purdue at Minnesota game still had about 10 minutes to go, so I knew I'd miss the start of the USD game. This was a little frustrating at first, but I did get a nice piece of information that I will store away for this upcoming March, and I will pass it along to you fine folks now (both of you):

Purdue is ranked 18, and Minnesota is ranked 21, and they play in the Big 10, so their chances of both making the NCAA tournament are very good, and they'll likely get good seeds. If you have any inkling that their first round opponents are potential Cinderellas, or if they happen to get a crappy seed and play a good team in the first round, do not hesitate to pick Purdue and Minnesota to both lose in the first round. The only way I will pick these teams to win a game is if I learn that their opponents have three or four guys get hurt. Or if they play Gonzaga, because I have a long-standing personal rule that I do not pick Gonzaga to win any games in the Tournament, and generally speaking, it serves me well.

(I think I need to formulate the Rules of Picking the Tourney.)

Anyway, as that painfully slow game withered to a merciful end, they starting running the USD-SMC score in the upper corner.

"Hey, USD is up 2-0...oh, make that 2-2...down 4-2...6-2...13-2. Ouch."

By the time ESPN2 switched over from Brent Musberger's miserable ass-kissing call of the Purdue-Minnesota game, the USD was already over. But then I remembered that St. Mary's had led USD by 17 in the second half of their conference semifinal game last year and USD came back to win in double-OT. Not tonight. But at least USD had the courtesy to play quickly, lose quickly, and allow ESPN2 to get to their next scheduled program a little early!

By the way, if you are looking for a small team to make some noise in the Tourney, St. Mary's is a very good option. They have a spectacular point guard (guard play+NCAA tourney=win), good shooters, some decent big men, 5 Australians (I don't know if it helps, but that is kinda cool) and they play serious defense. They won't be under the radar since they're already creeping into the rankings and have the nation's longest winning streak going, but everyone east of California will not trust this little band of Aussies.

They are impossible to root for however. Last week they beat a conference opponent by 50. No problem there; you should beat conference foes when they're down. The problem I have with it is that they fired up 31 3-pointers in the game. Classy coach.

One final thought on the Purdue-Minnesota game before moving on: we are all clear that the Big 10 Conference has eleven teams in it and that as creatively as they may hide that fact in their logo, that still doesn't make sense, right? OK. Moving on...

Speaking of Aussies and ESPN2's evening program, the next thing on the agenda was the Djokovic-Delic match. It ended up being a very nicely played, evenly matched four-setter between the #3 ranked returning champ and the little known American. The announcers made the point several times how these two were friends and how good the sportsmanship was throughout. When the match ended, they greeted each other genuinely and both thanked the boisterous crowd warmly.

The reason that all those warm feelings are worth remarking about (besides that they are just rare in sports) is that Djokovic is Serbian and Delic is a Bosnian-born American. I'm not sure how much you've been paying attention to the news for the past...oh...500 years, but the Bosnians and Serbs don't generally hug and and get warm reactions from crowds of people from the other place. I wasn't going to write about this because I couldn't really figure out a point I wanted to make that didn't get all socio-political and/or cheesy.

So I started writing about the USD hoops game when what on my TV should appear but a good old fashioned, Geraldo-style chair throwing brawl in a courtyard at the Australian Open. Apparently the warm fuzzies between the Serbian Dojokovic fans and Bosnian Delic fans only lasted until they got outside the stadium. Then a Serb threw a chair at a Bosnian woman who had just finished being interviewed by ESPN2 and the kangaroo shit hit the fan. I still wasn't sure what to write about because now I couldn't figure out a point I wanted to make that still didn't get all socio-political and/or judgemental.

So I went back to writing and ESPN2 came to my rescue again providing me with a nice, neat ending to this story. They went back out to the courtyard and showed some cops hauling the thugs away who had been throwing metal chairs in a crowd including women and children and low and behold: Australian cops wear Crocodile-freaking-Dundee hats! They're like Canadian Mounties but not gay. I am 100% sure that if they had widened the shot, we would have seen that they also wore just board shorts and sandals and carry boomerangs and machetes instead of guns and mace like our sissy cops here.

Add this to the growing list of reasons why Australia is awesome (#1 of course being how much hotter the accent makes the women).