NCAA Tourney 2011: Nicole's Crystal Ball (Part 2)

Since my wife first started filling out her own bracket two years ago, I have come to realize that while her system makes absolutely no sense, it works.  So this year, I decided to try and quantify why.

Categories Nicole Uses:

Better seeds 37-11

Best/Worst Conferences (listing only those with multiple bids)

• ACC 7-1 (3-0 in Round of 32)
• MWC 4-1 (2-0 in Round of 32)
• Colonial 4-2
• Big East 9-9 (2-5 in Round of 32)
• CUSA 0-2
• MAC 0-2

BCS Conferences vs. Non-BCS Conferences 18-8

Best/Worst States (listing only those with multiple bids)

• Florida 4-0
• Wisconsin 4-0
• North Carolina 5-1
• Alabama 0-2
• New Jersey 0-2
• Tennessee 0-4

Mascots

• Animals vs. People 11-7
• Cats vs. Dogs 3-2
• Wildcats 5-2
• Huskies 3-1
• Bulldogs 4-3
• Tigers 1-4
• Ancient Greeks (Trojans and Spartans) 0-3

Best/Worst Colors

• Red 14-9 (6-2 in Round of 32)
• Blue 33-28
• White 19-16
• Purple 3-3 (eliminated)
• Black 7-11
• Green 1-3 (eliminated)

Best/Worst Color Combinations

• Blue/Red 6-1 (3-0 in Round of 32)
• Blue/White 14-8 (6-1 in Round of 32)
• Orange/blue 4-3
• Single color 2-3
• Blue/Gold 6-7 (1-4 in Round of 32)
• Green/White 0-2
• Blue/Gray 0-2

Public vs. Private 9-5

East of the Mississippi vs. West 9-11

Union vs. Confederacy 8-10

Totals for various systems:

• Nicole’s Actual Picks 30-18 – 62.5%
• Better Regular Season Final RPI vs. Worse 33-15 – 68.8% (East 10-2, West 11-1, SW 4-8 and SE 8-4)
• Better Regular Season Final AP Ranking vs. Worse 30-16 – 65.2% (East 9-3, West 10-1, SW 4-8 and SE 7-4)
• Better Seed vs. Worse 36-12 – 75.0% (East 10-2, West 12-0, SW 4-8 and SE 10-2)
• Better Regular Season Final Sagarin rating vs. Worse 37-11 – 77.1% (East 10-2, West 12-0, SW 5-7 and SE 10-2)

*These results were not adjusted after each round; they reflect what the bracket would be like had it been picked this way before the Tournament.

Points of interest:

In all four of the more scientific systems just named, they would have 6-of-8 Elite Eight teams left (missing Pitt and Notre Dame), 3-of-4 Final Four teams left (missing Pitt), and both Finalists.  Nicole has 7-of-8 Elite Eight teams left (missing Notre Dame), 3-of-4 Final Four teams (missing Notre Dame), and one Finalist (missing Notre Dame).  So she did worse than all four heading into the Sweet 16, but they way points generally multiply in later rounds, she is actual in a far better position than all four.

In the 11 games whose results featured a worse seed winning, one was a 9 beating an 8, one was a 5 beating a 4, and four others featured “upset” wins by major national programs (Florida State, Gonzaga and Marquette twice) – hardly “Cinderella” material.  That means through 48 games, only five game were truly unforeseeable upsets: 11 VCU over 6 Georgetown, 12 Richmond over 5 Vanderbilt, 13 Morehead State over 4 Louisville (which Nicole picked), 11 VCU over 3 Purdue, and 8 Butler over 1 Pittsburgh.  We all should have seen the other 89% coming.