No More Divisional Series - No More Frank TV Ads

Really, there is only one thing that I take away from watching pretty much all of the LDS games: I have never hated any television show that I have never watched more than I hate Frank TV. And that includes that Tyler Perry show, which apparently uses the same advertising company. Who the hell is Tyler Perry to have "Tyler Perry's [fill in the movie/show name here]" as the title everything he works on? Seriously, who is he?

But I digress. Frank Caliendo is pretty funny. The Charles Barkley impersonation on TNT when he was talking about Kim Jung-il was fantastic. His John Madden on Kevin & Bean every week is better than the real John Madden. I would have voted for his President Bush. And then, there are the rest of his characters. None of them look like who they are supposed to look like at all, and a few of them kinda sound like it.

There is one ad (the one where the character asks Frank for a hug) in which I have no clue who he is supposed to be. It seem like a cross between Robert De Niro, William Shatner and Robin Williams.

The point of this rant is that I can't believe that TBS thinks this shotgun-style ad campaign can possibly work. I love ice cream. But if I had two servings of it during every commercial break for 3-10 hours a day for a week straight, I would probably never want ice cream again.

Towards the end of the week, they started to release commercials where Caliendo sorta apologized to viewers, saying basically, "I know you are sick of these commercials, but watch my show." Then apparently yesterday he released a statement saying that if the ratings were better for the show, they wouldn't have to bombard us with ads. To use a medical metaphor, the reason that people don't race out at every chance they get to have a colonoscopy is not because it isn't advertised enough. So maybe if the show didn't suck, we'd watch it. After all, there have been lots of shows that did really well in the ratings that did not have up to 10 commercials an hour.

They are turning off their audience and while I would probably watch the show every now and then when I caught it, I will now go out of my way to avoid it.

The saddest part of all of this, of course, is that the rest of the playoffs are televised on Fox and they are the grand-daddies of this type of advertising. So I hope you are excited to see the stars of Fringe, House, Prison Break, 24, Bones, Terminator and the whole slew of reality shows in which the titles are complete sentences as they sit in the stands reading magazines because they were sent there so Joe Buck could "happen to notice them in the crowd" at coincidentally the same point of every game, which is also right when a promo for that show was about to air. And with games in L.A. this time, it could be even worse than normal.

I Hate Baseball

Today is one of those days that I wish it was socially acceptable for a grown man to cry in public at the drop of a hat like those two guys in the double-stroller in the Taco Bell commercial.

While the word "collapse" seems to be the word-o-the-day for sports writers and talk radio folks when talking about the Mets, I hardly think that that is fair. After all, the Mets were 13-12 in September. By comparison, the Brewers (who are the heroic September-survivors) went 10-16. Yes, the Mets went .500 for the final month and that wasn't enough to get it done, but keep in mind that they were out of the Divisional race by 7.5 games two months ago and out of Wild Card by four games three weeks ago and roared back into both races, surviving until the last day.

That said, they should never have been in either race and should have been able to run away with the division in June, thus making September irrelevant and that is why Omar Minaya absolutely needs to be fired. Of course if you have been paying attention, you saw that he apparently was just given an extension.

Minaya takes flak from some fans for supposedly being too Latin-player-centric in his personnel moves. Personally, I think this is ridiculous. His flaw is that he is too over-the-hill-player-centric and expects big name moves to solve all of the small problems. Anyone can sign big names to huge-dollar contracts. A good general manager find diamonds in the rough, and Minaya doesn't. Many of the star players on the team had good years, in fact David Wright and Jose Reyes had arguably their best years, but there were so many glaring holes that they simply couldn't overcome them.

The team won 89 games despite some huge, obvious problems that were clearly evident in last year's team and not fixed in the offseason or at the trade-deadlines. There was no doubt that the bullpen was a problem last year, yet Minaya made no significant move to fix it. It is unfair to pin the whole season on the bullpen, but look at it statistically: this season there were 654 blown saves in 1837 save opportunities in the Majors - so saves are blown 36% of the time. Among playoff teams (including the Twins and White Sox since they are both still alive), they blew 195 out of 600 opportunities, 33%. Mets relievers blew 31 saves in 72 opportunities - an average of 43%! They blew one save almost every five games. Essentially, they lost one game that they had a lead in late per week. By comparison, the Phillies blew 16 of 66 chances, 24%. Had the Mets' bullpen completed this task at the League average, they would have won the East by three games. At their divisional rivals Phillies' average, they would have won the division by 12 games, won 103 games, and had the best record in Baseball.

But we all knew the bullpen stunk. This isn't news. So the Mets bullpen was far worse than the league average, let alone a playoff team's average. The offense was among the league's best, so that should have cancelled it out. Or were they? Of the players who usually started for the Mets (Ryan Church, Carlos Beltran, David Wright, Jose Reyes and Carlos Delgado), all had good seasons. They made up for 73% of the home runs hit and 63% of the RBI by Mets this season. They also made up about the same percentage of the team's payroll. By no means am I suggesting that any of these five should be dealt, but the point is that nearly any G.M. with this payroll could have found these types of players. The problem I have with Minaya is that the role-players all stink.

The team was decimated by injuries during the course of the season. Four starting left-fielders were injured for the remainder of the year in succession (Moises Alou, Angel Pagan, Trot Nixon and Fernando Tatis). Church was injured and missed nearly half of the year as well. But Minaya did hardly anything to replace these players and in the end, the Mets bench consisted of players like Endy Chavez (.267), Robinson Cancel (.245), Argenis Reyes (.218), and Marlon Anderson (.210). Most of the players who were injured for significant time (Alou, Orlando Hernandez, Damion Easley, Tatis, Nixon, Pedro Martinez, Billy Wagner and Anderson) are in the waning years of their careers and injuries like these could easily have been foreseen.

In the offseason, Minaya traded for Johan Santana to fix the starting rotation. This was a good fix for a huge concern for 2007, but anyone would have made the same move. Minaya also planned on using Martinez and Hernandez despite that it was clear neither would be any use in 2008. No players were brought in to fix the hemorrhaging bullpen and it proved disastrous. Ryan Church replaced Shawn Green and was only a moderate improvement (thanks largely to his injury) and Brian Schneider was brought in to replace Paul Loduca and was hardly an improvement. Midseason, the manager was fired and this proved to be a key move that catapulted the team into the playoff race that they'd eventually lose by a nose. However, they should have already won that race by that time and Minaya is to blame.

My only solace in this whole situation is these three things:
1) Dodger fans and the L.A. media seem to whole-heartedly believe that this is their year despite not apparently realizing that their "amazing, Manny Ramirez-fueled August/September run" is the seventh best record among the eight* playoff teams in that time. They are actually worse than the Brewers who overcame a massive collapse to survive, and the Mets who supposedly blew it down the stretch! Whoops.
2) While CC Sabathia's 2 wins, 26 K's and 1.88 ERA over the last two weeks ultimately doomed the Mets, they helped my fantasy team win the league.
3) My Giants won the Super Bowl, so for at least a decade more, I am good to go.


*Winning percentages in August and September: Red Sox .641, Rays .618, Cubs .615, Phillies .611, Angels .593, Brewers .569, Dodgers .556, White Sox/Twins .519; Mets .574

Being A Recovering Alcoholic And A Baseball Fan Couldn't Be Easy

On Wednesday, I wrote about how the Mets game from Tuesday night felt like one of those turning point games that might be the driving force that pushes the team. I don't think this team is winning a World Series unless the bullpen starts to channel John Franco (that is to say, loading the bases is fine...giving up a bases-clearing triple is not). But it did look like they would at least overcome the September 2007 demons and get back into the playoffs.

Then on Wednesday night they came out and blew a four run lead and left the winning run on third base after he hit a leadoff triple in the ninth. In fact, they had men on third with no outs in each of the last three innings. Ouch. And of course the Brewers won on a walk-off homer to tie up the Wild Card race. Ouch! To say the least, I did not want to acknowledge that any of this happened, let alone write about sports yesterday, so I took a day to regroup.

And the funny thing is that now that the Mets and Brewers have both played one more game, and each won theirs in spectacular fashion, it is painfully clear that all this magic and heroics really do have nothing to do with what happens the next day. Sure they make folks feel more confident, and confidence is crucial, but so it hitting and pitching and fielding.

The Brewers had a come-from-behind win and won it on a walk-off grand slam in the 10th. Their second walk-off homer in two games. You don't think they feel like a team of destiny? The Mets had their amazing win on Tuesday and then last night had Ryan Church score on the strangest play at the plate in history to complete a three-run comeback. As a rainstorm that had already causes a game in DC to be cancelled water-logged Shea Stadium, they played on into the 9th when Carlos Beltran hit a game-winning shot off the glove of the first baseman that stopped dead in the soaked grass that the right fielder couldn't get to before the winning run scored. They earned a split with the best team in the League. You think they aren't feeling good about themselves? Does Destiny have a favorite?

This is all kinda like how fans pray for their teams, or athletes pray for themselves before events - like God is only listening to one side of the argument. Granted, when it is Boston College playing Miami, God clearly has a side. And He apparently does not like Arod either so whatever team he is on, God's on the other team. (greatest player ever perhaps...not a sniff of a World Series title).

There is only one way that the idea of Destiny intervening can be upheld this season. And that is that the Mets and Brewers both make the playoffs, meaning the Mets have to make up a game on Philly in the last three days. After all, the Rays are the AL East winners, the Yankees are playing golf, and the Twins are about to complete a miracle comeback to win the Central despite having traded away Johan Santana among others in the off season. So amazing things happen. Of course, God doesn't watch American League baseball, so you can't blame it on Him.

The funny thing in all of this is that as a fan, I have no idea what to do with myself from day to day. Wednesday night I felt like I had been kicked in the stomach and yesterday I couldn't even watch ESPN because I hated seeing the ticker show that the Wild Card was tied. Now the Mets pick up one more win, and even though they are still in the exact same position - tied - I feel like they are sure to get it done. I guess the easiest way to calm myself on this rollercoaster is to take solace in the fact that I am not a USC fan.

Two Monumental Occurences Right Under Our Noses

With the Ryder Cup happening, this weekend vaults from another great Fall sports weekend (college football, NFL, baseball races) to one of the year's best. But I am not here to write about the Ryder Cup or football or baseball in general. Rather I just want to make sure that we are watching closely as two significant events are about to occur in baseball.

The Tampa Bay Rays are going to win the American League East.
The New York Yankee are going to miss the playoffs.

These two points cannot be oversold and need to not be undersold. Both are about as significant as anything that has happened in sports in a long time (besides the Giants beating the Patriots in the way that they did with the significance that was attached).

The Rays looked like they were just about to fold as their lead vanished and they had two more games left in Boston. Then they quickly won both and jumped back out to a two game lead. It's over. Two years ago this team lost 101 games. The best they have ever done in franchise history was win 70 games. Right now they have already won 90.

It is not like they have been on the cusp and finally put it all together. It is not like they have been a middling also-ran and signed a big name to put them over the top. It is not like they have been hovering at or around .500 for years and finally made it happen. They have never been anything but terrible in their franchise history. They made no major free-agent signings and didn't even make any trade-deadline moves. And they are beating the Red Sox in the midst of their powerhouse era and trouncing the Yankees despite their payroll being something like six times what the Rays pay. What is happening in Tampa is nothing like what the Marlins did for their two titles - they bought their rings. I cannot remember any other team in any sport doing anything remotely similar to what the Rays are doing.

And speaking of those Yankees, perhaps they are not as bad as people make them out to be. After all, they are 10 games over .500 and have suffered through many injuries. Or maybe they are as bad as they get ripped for being...they are in fourth place, and everyone has lots of injuries. And besides, they will finish the season with their supposedly crippled pitching staff allowing over 50 runs fewer than they did in any of the last four years. The problem is that their vaunted, overpaid, aging offense will score almost 200 fewer runs than they did last year.

But all those numbers and comparisons are not the salient point, which is that the Yankee are going to miss the playoffs. Derek Jeter is going to miss the playoffs. I have not been enjoying this nearly enough all year. They never really were in the race. When they struggled early on, we all said, "Yeah but they always struggle. Then they always come back." But they didn't. They just kept being a little above average, and falling further and further behind. And I never stopped to smell the roses. But now, for the final 10 games, I am going to live it up. The Yankees and Braves are both in fourth place. I won't know what to do with myself next month when I have no one to root against.

Except the Red Sox. And the Dodgers. And the Phillies. And the Cubs.

Ok, so I have people to root against. But I will also have lots of good guys too: Mets, Angels, Twins and Rays! But seriously, the Yankees are going to be eliminated from the Playoff chase by the end of this weekend which makes it one of the truly great sports weekends of the year!

Not-So-Sweet Seventeen

There are 17 games left in the Major League Baseball regular season. For most fans, this just means that the only have to ignore their team's crappy season for two more weeks before they can move on and focus fully on the NFL. For some, it means that they only have two more weeks to see if their boys can pull it out and get into the playoffs. For Mets fans, after what happened in 2007, "17-games left" means a little something different.

As a sports fan, particularly as a baseball fan, there are many numbers that stick out in my mind. 755 was the home run record. 41 was Jackie Robinson's number. Cy Young won 511 games. Cal Ripken, Jr. played in 2,632 consecutive games. Nolan Ryan had 5,714 strikeouts. Pete Rose had 4,256 hits. Then there are the landmarks: batting .300, the 30-30 club, 100 rbi, 300 K's, 300 wins, 3000 hits, 500 homers.

As a Mets fan, I have my own list of numbers: 1962, 40-120, 1969, 1986, Game 6 and many others, but sadly the number 17 has been replaced on my list...it used to stand for Keith Hernandez.. Plaxico Burress did his best trying to give it positive connotations for me by scoring the Super Bowl winning touchdown with a 17 on his shirt, but sadly, the number is still tainted.

I have a friend who is another Mets fan, who is one of those people who wants everyone fired all the time. He can't stand anyone on the team; they are all a bunch of primadonna chokers. No heart. No fire. No talent. Over-the-hill. So when this guy whined throughout the second half of 2007 that the Mets were gonna blow it, I always had to take it with a grain of salt. "They have a huge lead and they are playing fine...not great...but fine," I thought.

My wife works with this guy and she would come home occassionally and ask me what was wrong with the Mets because the guy had been particularly nuts that day. I can specifically remember one conversation with her in the beginning of September, 2007. She asked how far behind they were, and I said, "Behind? They are way out in the lead! He is nuts. He hates Willie Randolph for being too calm when everyone loved him for that same trait last year. The Mets are fine. They're in the playoffs for sure; they may not win it all, but they are in."

It has been pretty well documented that with 17 games left, the Mets had a seven game lead in the East and then the wheels came off. They had played mediocre baseball for most of the season leading up to that point, and finally they bored the baseball gods enough that they turned on the team and everything went wrong. Within days, you could feel this momentum building as the season plumetting down the tubes.

Still I reassured my bride (and possibly myself), "They are still way out in the lead. They would need to lose a game every other day to miss out and they'd still probably get the Wild Card. They are in the playoffs." As it turned out, they pretty much lost a game every other day and on that last fateful Sunday, the ball (and season) rested in Tom Glavine's experienced left hand. Then that bastard completed the sobatage he had been serruptitiously working on since arriving in Port St. Lucie in 2003.

I was working at CBS on their NFL coverage that last day and was trying to figure out if we had a satellite available so I could watch the Mets game. Sadly (or perhaps, luckily) there was no way to get the game on since we were recording all of the NFL games for the show. So I had to follow along with the Mets game on the internet. Glavine allowed 73 runs in the top of the first inning to the Florida Marlins, a team that had was 3-158 on the season (don't quote me on those stats).

In their last 17 games, the Mets allowed the Division to be stolen out from under them, and now with 17 games to go this year, the Mets again sit atop the East with the Phillies on their heals. Only this time the lead is only three.

From an objective point of view, I can see that the collapse of 2007 and the subsequent mistrust of the number 17, are the kinds of things that make sports great. They are the reasons we root in the first place. It is like getting your heart broken by a girl - you need that in order to really enjoy the good times later. But from a subjective point of view, I will tell you right now that if they blow it again, I am going to punch Tom Glavine in the face, steal a crane from Citi Field and raze Shea Stadium to the ground.

[Insert Uggla-Ugly Pun Here]

Three hours into the player introductions for last night's All Star game, we should have realized that we were in for a long night. I am not sure if the introductions were longer, more painful and less necessary than that "Call Your Shot" promotion right before the finals of the Home Run Derby, so we will call it a tie.

Fox/Major League Baseball trotted out anywhere from three to fifteen Hall of Famers at each position and introduced them as well as the current players. I took a nap about a half hour into it and woke up when they got to third base and introduced Phil Rizzuto. I thought they were going to start naming all of the dead Hall of Famers. And speaking of dead guys, why was Rizzuto (who is a ballplayer, not a word) the only one named? If I was Babe Ruth's, or Roger Maris', or Mickey Mantle's ghost, I would be haunting Joe Buck's house so bad right now.

The funny thing was that Buck's dramatic scripted intro for the intro stated that he was going to name the "living immortals." I got a kick out of this because A: Rizzuto is not living (not that I am mocking him for being dead, I just don't see how he is a "living immortal" and B: can there be such a thing as a "dead immortal"? I mean being immortal seems like it pretty much eliminates death, being that it means "not dead."

Also during the intros, Josh Hamilton was called, "a hero last night in the Derby," and while that is completely true, if I was Justin (or Jason) Morneau, I'd be pissed.

Buck's painfully scripted and rehearsed moments did not go well for him. At one point, while fawning over Yankee Stadium, he called it "our Coliseum." I couldn't help but think that the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum is our Coliseum, being that it is slightly older than Yankee stadium and is, you know, called the "Coliseum." This was the line that Buck trotted out when the game was seemingly about to end: Grady Sizemore at bat, bases loaded, no outs, bottom of the 10th. The NL then put on a defensive exhibition (thankfully, no balls were hit to Dan Uggla) and Buck's big line was wasted.

Late in the game, in maybe the 12th or 13th inning, I started to wonder who was the saddest man on earth at that moment: Uggla or Bud Selig? Uggla will likely decline the invitation to next year's All Star game, if he is invited. He struck out three times and when he did hit the ball, he grounded into a double play. He left a game-high six men on base. And he committed three errors. Ouch.

But then there is Selig. In 2002 when the game was tied 7-7 in the 11th inning and Selig had to figure out what the hell they were going to do now that neither team had any pitchers left, he looked like he would rather have cut his own leg off with a plastic spoon than have to deal with that situation, live on national television, in the front row of his own home stadium. So this time he was hiding in an office somewhere.

Did Selig think that incomprehensibly making the outcome of the World Series depend on the All Star game was going to eliminate the possibility that the game could be tied late? Did they really consider that problem fixed? They didn't change anything, they just made it matter infinitely more if the exact same problem should occur again. Clearly they need to cut the tie that binds the World Series' home field advantage to this game because it is too important of a result to have it depend on fans' fickle voting, and then potentially position players pitching to close out the game.

If the All Star game is going to decide the World Series' home field advantage, the team cannot be chosen by fans, and pitchers must be prepared to go 3+ innings. If a guy pitched on Sunday and can't go more than 15 pitches in an emergency situation, he should get his All Star bonus, he should get to enjoy the festivities, but he should not be in the dugout. Get someone who can play.

If they want it to be an exhibition where the fans get to play a major role, then cut the World Series connection. The game is fun regardless of whether "this one counts." It wasn't great theater because of the World Series (exclusively). It was also great theater because it was great theater! That bottom of the 10th inning was one of the great innings in baseball history, outdone perhaps by the bottom of the 11th! And if it had come down to it, what a wonderful, fun, fan-friendly way to end such a marathon it would have been if David Wright and JD Drew had gone in to pitch, with Brad Lidge and Scott Kazmir at DH.

All Star Boos For Utley And Marmol

Josh Hamilton's spectacular show at the Home Run Derby is getting more than enough press, so I won't bother adding more praise to what he did. What I will say is that none of Hamilton's 500+ foot homers, nor his 28 jacks in the first round, nor Milton Bradley's surprisingly fun antics were my highlights. David Ortiz' self-serving look-at-me antics certainly weren't. Nor was it when the All-State big wig with the giant check called Justin Morneau, "Jason Morneau" as he congratulated him for winning. No the highlight of the night for me came before the balls started flying.

As the players' names were called in the introductions, they would run out to the baseline, turn around and wave to the crowd, with an ESPN camera right in their faces. These cameras have microphones on them to pick up whatever natural sound from the field that they can. When Phillie Chase Utley was announced, he received a pronounced round of boos from the Yankee Stadium crowd (presumably from Mets fans?). That wasn't the best part.

The best part was that when Utley got out to the baseline to join Marlin Dan Uggla, and he heard the boos. Utley turned around to wave to the crowd and said to Uggla, easily loud enough for the live camera to pick up the sound, "Boo!? Fuck you!"

Sorry about the language there, but it was spectacular television and a simple "f--- you" wouldn't have captured it well enough.

A close second, in terms of my favorite moments, was when Hamilton launched a ball to dead center that landed on the black tarp-covered seats and two fans ran out to snag the ball. The cops converged on the two and one went sprinting down the tunnel, presumably to his death. The other was caught and held by the throat with one hand by a cop on national television. When they showed the replay later, they cut before that part.

Finally, with tonight's All Star Game being only hours away, I want to mention how unbelievably stupid it is that Carlos Marmol was the final replacement on the National League team when teammate Kerry Wood dropped out with an injury. First of all, Marmol is a middle reliever and I understand that this may be the most under-appreciated position in all of sports, and that just because he is a middle reliever doesn't mean he isn't one of the best 25-30 players in the league. But the fact that his ERA is over 4.00 does mean that!

After a very nice start to the season, Marmol's ERA in June was 7.36 and in July it has been 13.50! He was named a replacement the day after he blew a 7-2 lead and was booed off the mound at home! This guy is an All Star?

Pat Burrell (who I hate) is fourth in the league in homers with 23 and leads the NL outfielders in slugging. Jose Reyes is hitting .302 with 10 homers and 43 RBI from the lead off spot, along with 68 runs scored and 32 steals! He is fourth in the NL in runs, 2nd in hits, 1st in triples, 3rd in steals, and 12th in batting average. If you want a pitcher, how about Johan Santana who has 8 wins, is 4th in the league in ERA (2.84), and 7th in K's. Or Kyle Lohse, who is third in the league in wins and his era is 3.39. Or Chad Billingsley, who has 9 wins, a 3.25 ERA and is second in the league in K's. If you want a middle reliever, how about another Dodger, Hong-Chih Kuo (who I absolutely hate), whose ERA is 1.69 and has almost 1 1/4 K's per inning pitched.

Carlos Marmol? Really? That said, he'll probably wind up being the MVP of the game.

Prognostications: 81 Games To Go

Nearly every Major League Baseball team has played at least 81 games this year, which means it is time to once again look back on my preseason (AL and NL) and 40-game predictions for how the divisions would wind up.

AL West: Preseason Pick - N/A; 1/4 Season Pick - Angels
Despite struggling to score runs at times, the Angels are still in the hunt for the best record in baseball (thank you AL West-laden schedule). The A's are hanging in there and the Rangers are within a hot two-weeks off of the lead, but this division is over and I hereby disavow any knowledge of whether I did or did not pick the Mariners to win the division before the season started. The Angels pitching is too deep (and getting deeper with Kelvim Escobar sooner to return) to allow even this disappointingly mediocre offense to screw it up.
81-Game Pick: Angels (95-67; currently 1st - 49-33)

AL Central: Preseason Pick - Indians; 1/4 Season Pick - Indians
While I was very proud of my choice to leave the Tigers out in the cold and then they jumped out to be one of the worst teams in baseball, they have since rebounded and are currently the hottest team in baseball. That said, they have won 17 of 21 games and are still five games behind a very good White Sox team. Their pace cannot continue and when they come back to earth and play a few games over .500 for the rest of the way (10-15 over probably), the Sox will likely just match their pace and hang on. I still like the Indians team but they are so listless, I don't know if they can put a run together. Though that's what I might have said about the Tigers. I am sticking to my guns with this division and staying with the 4th place Indians who are 9.5 back, but it will be a barn-burner.
81-Game Pick: Indians (90-72; currently 4th - 37-45)

AL West: Preseason Pick - N/A; 1/4 Season Pick - N/A
I still don't really care about the AL East. While I respect the Red Sox for finally getting the better of the Other Team that plays in New York, they are almost equally obnoxious now. Almost. I would love to see the Rays hang on - they just moved back into first place with the best record in baseball (49-32) yesterday - but I don't have great hope. As for my noting a stat that the Other NY Team goes nuts after April and May, they were a pedestrian 16-11 in June, with one game to go. Most of that success was in Interleague (8-3 against NL teams that are not the Mets), which they are now done with for the season.
81-Game Pick: Still don't care.

AL Wild Card: Preseason Pick - AL East Runner-Up; 1/4 Season Pick - A's
I am sticking to my guns on this one. I don't think the Rays can keep up with the Red Sox, and I don't think the Yankees can last with their pitching problems. The AL Central is too tough and they will all beat the hell out of one another down the stretch. That leaves the West. The Mariners are already mathematically eliminated from the playoffs for the nest three years (sorry Jim Britt), and the Rangers aren't closing on anyone in September. So the A's and Angels will have the only 2-team race for the finish, with the Angels winning by 5-10 games, but pulling the A's along with them.
81-Game Pick: A's (90-72; currently 3rd - 44-37)

NL West: Preseason Pick - Diamondbacks (92-70); 1/4 Season Pick - Diamondbacks
After jumping out to a 200 game lead through the first month and a half, the Diamondbacks have apparently remembered what division they play in and now absolutely stink. The Dodgers are 14-22 since I last made my predictions and are closing in on the front-running D-Backs who are are 12-24 in the time. They now lead this miserable excuse for a collection of professional athletes by just 2.5 games. I nailed the picks of the Rockies' and Padres' seasons so far, and the 36-46 Giants are actually the team playing best in relation to expectation! Currently now team in this division is over .500 and the division is 52 under collectively. It is time to move the Marlins to Portland and the NL West, move the Rockies to the Central, and move the Pirates back to the East.
81-Game Pick: Diamondbacks (88-74; currently 1st - 41-41)

NL Central: Preseason Pick - Cubs (97-65); 1/4 Season Pick - Cubs
Where the heck did the Cardinals come from? They were absolutely rolling until Albert Pujols went on the DL and ruined the season. Oh wait, they played over .500 and closed the Cubs' lead to 2.5 in that time. I still don't believe in the Cards (perhaps it is because Braden Looper pitches for them), and the Brewers (who were supposedly dead in the water) are now 7 over .500 and right in the hunt. All that said, it is still the Cubs' division to lose. They've scored 50 runs more than any other team in the division and they have the best team ERA.
81-Game Pick: Cubs (97-65; currently 1st - 49-33)

NL East: Preseason Pick - Mets (95-67); 1/4 Season Pick - Mets
As I wrote in May, this division is easily the most disappointing of the...oh wait, I forgot that the NL West still counted as a "Major" league division. The Marlins continue to play over their heads and they in the race, but I cannot see it continuing. If they have two bad weeks this month, the ownership will cut and run again like always. The Phillies have missed a golden opportunity to run away and hide while the Mets dealt with the Willie Randolph situation and the Braves lost Larry Jones for a spell. The Mets are now settled, they have Ryan Church back, they have Pedro back and everyone's roles seem to be solidifying. I hate to make a statement like this before the All-Star break, but their season hangs in the balance of what happens in the next eight days (four games in St. Louis and four in Philadelphia). If the Mets can win three in each city, it will go a long way towards making them gel as a team and will get them five over .500 and likely in a tie for first place. If so, game over.
81-Game Pick: Mets (87-75; currently 3rd - 40-41)

NL Wild Card: Preseason Pick - Braves (90-72); 1/4 Season Pick - Dodgers
Why I gave the Dodgers any respect will haunt me for a long, long time. They are a two-man team and one of them (Furcal) hasn't played for most of the year. They've allowed the 3rd fewest runs (A's and Red Sox), but have scored the third fewest as well (Padres and Nationals). Considering how poorly the big three in the East are playing, I can't see the second best of them making any noise down the stretch, especially since they are already currently five games behind the Cardinals and in third for the Card.
81-Game Pick: Cardinals (90-72; currently 1st - 47-36)

Playoffs:
Red Sox host A's and win in 6. Angels host Indians and win in 5.
Angels host Red Sox and win in 6.
Diamondbacks host Cardinals and win in 5. Cubs host Mets and lose in 3 (it will blow your mind)
Diamondbacks host Mets and lose in 4.

Angels host Mets (because K-Rod will knock down the All Star game save), but Mets will in in 4.

Looking back at my picks from May, I saw that that was right after the NBA Draft Lottery balls were picked and the Clippers got the #7. On May 21, I called that the Clips would draft Eric Gordon and the Celtics would beat the Pistons in 7 and then win it all over L.A. Look it up (scroll all the way to the last paragraph). Suck on that Chad Ford.

Baseball Hits The 1/4 Pole

Before I get to the baseball review/predictions, I wanted to note the retirement of Mike Piazza. It took me a little while to warm up to Piazza when he came to the Mets because he was a damned Dodger for years, but when it was all said and done, he was one of the great Mets of all time. If it was not for the most steroid-enhanced teams in history, he would have won the World Series in 2000 and is one of the great stories in sports history. The guy was drafted as a personal favor to his brother's godfather (Tommy Lasorda) in the 62nd round, pick number 1390. He went on to be the greatest hitting catcher of all time, the 1993 Rookie of the Year, a 12-time All-Star, a sure-fire first-ballot Hall of Famer and his game-winning home run against the Braves at Shea Stadium days after 9/11 will go down as one of the great sports moment of all time. Thanks Mike!


In March, in the last days before the Major League Baseball season began, I made my predictions for the winners of each division and then the playoffs. You can find my National League picks here, and my American League picks here. Now about 1/4 of the way through the season, I will take a look at those picks and perhaps make a few changes (thanks a lot Mariners).

Beginning in the AL West, I knew that when I picked the Mariners it was for stupid reasons. I said then that the Angels' pitching was banged up at the start of the year and while they may have had time to heal over the next six months, I thought that the Mariners' young pitching may get them a jump-start. Then Adrian Beltre hit .246, Kenji Johjima hit .222 and Richie Sexson hit .203 and they jumped out to the worst record in the League. I hereby switch my pick to the Angels because, of the two L.A. teams, they signed the right Torii.

In the AL Central, I chose not to drink the Tigers' Kool-Aid and picked the Indians because they had the best record in baseball last year and returned the entire team. The Tigers tripped and fell at the starting line and are only saved from the worst record in the League because they've played one fewer than Seattle. The Indians are in 3rd, 2.5 back and I am sticking with them. Grady Sizemore's OPS is .821, and while I haven't the foggiest idea what that means, it sounds awesome. MVP baby.

At the time, I said I did not care about the AL East and didn't make a pick. With the emergence of the Rays, it changes absolutely nothing. I still don't like the Sox or Yankees and the Rays simply cannot last for 120 more games. But it is fun watching the Yankees sit in last place. Of course, I heard a stat the other day that over the last three years, the Yanks are something like 20 games under .500 through May, and then something like 80 games over .500 from June through October. However, this year they have no pitchers.

As for the AL Wild Card, the Yankees' start opens the door up to the White Sox, Twins and A's. I will pick the A's since they are in an easier division and will mop up on the Rangers and Mariners.

I still don't care about the AL playoffs.

The National League West has retaken its rightful title as the NL Worst. My predictions in the West were dead on. The DBacks will run away with it (though I underestimated their win total). The Dodgers stink and no manager, not even the great Joe Torre, can win them an extra 15 games this year. The Padres are woefully under-performing and with Jake Peavy on the DL and then in recovery for who knows how long, they are not coming back anytime soon. The magic ran out in Colorado. The Giants play in a nice stadium and seem like nice people. How bad is the division? The DBacks are 20-5 against West opponents.

The NL Central is an enigma still. I picked the Cubs and they are in front with the pitching staff, Soriano and Fukudome leading the way as I predicted (I went out on a limb, eh?). But they are still the Cubs. And Houston and St. Louis are much stronger than I expected. If they can keep it together, this race could be brutal. I think at this point, I still have to stick with the Cubbies, but the Central will be a fun race in September.

The NL East is a train wreck. All five teams stink. Washington is truly terrible and is already out of it. The other four are all neck-and-neck and none is showing any signs of pulling away. I don't see the Marlins hanging around but isn't this what the Marlins do every five years? When was their last World Series? It will come down to the Mets, Braves and Phillies as usual. Among them, none is playing remotely close to how they should, although the Phillies and Mets have suffered far more injuries. I think if the Mets are still within a few games when Pedro Martinez and Orlando Hernandez come back, it's over. They are not the Greats they once were, but the lift that will give the team and the depth it will put in the bullpen will go a long way. Also, they are playing the worst baseball of the bunch and are still in it. If they make any steps towards waking up, they will start to pull away.

The NL Wild Card is pretty wide open. Initially I picked the Braves because they're good again. But the West is far worse than I expected and if the Dodgers can clean up against the Rockies, Giants and Padres, they could amass a lot of wins. Plus, with the East and Central likely being three-horse races, the Dodgers will have an easier time gaining separation from the pack in second place in their division.

NLDS: It wouldn't be the postseason without the Dodgers getting swept. The Dbacks will have the best record, but they cannot play a Wild Card team in their own division, so the Cubs will have the honor of sweeping the Dodgers this year.

NLDS: Mets over DBacks in a sweep also. I called in March and I am sticking to it. Screw Dan Haren and Brandon Webb.

NLCS: See my prediction on this from March. From here on in, my picks hold.

In other news, the NBA had the Lottery and the Clippers got #7. They'll take Indiana's Eric Gordon. The Celtics arrived in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals, but they are in Boston so it's no biggee. If the Pistons win Game 2, it's over. If the Celtics do, they'll win in 7 and then beat the Lakers in the NBA Finals.

Baseball To Ban All Player Punishments

How much money was spent compiling the Mitchell Report? How much time? How many hours were spent interviewing people, being denied interviews with people, researching phone and email and credit card records, searching through dumpsters, and finally writing the 409-page report?

Last week the players' union boss and the commissioner of baseball did exactly what the report recommended: they totally disregarded it and decided they will not and will never punish anyone named in the report who was found to have cheated.

Why did they make this report? Why was it news? Was the only intent to ruin the names of players and former players, without actually formally punishing anyone? Do you know what I would do if I was caught red-handed doing something that was illegal but had made me millions of dollars, but then was told I would not be punished? I would probably find a way to keep doing it. Even if I get caught again, the union will probably get me off, and even if not, I will make millions in the meantime.

The LA Times' Bill Dwyre wrote a column yesterday about this and he used Marion Jones as one example who was actually punished for cheating. Yes, she lied to Congress, but that had nothing to do with her being stripped of her Olympic medals and records. She was stripped of her medals because she cheated. But not a single baseball player will be stripped of a single single!

Cycling is mocked and discredited for being saturated with cheaters, but the governors of the sport are leading the way (along with the Olympics) in showing how to clean up a sport - they enforce rules. Cycling tests riders constantly, goes into their hotels during races and does searches for drug paraphernalia and bans riders for two years for a single positive test. Do you know who won the Tour de France, his sport's most glorious crown, last year? Probably not, but you know he was clean (2004 brain surgery survivor Alberto Cantador, by the way). Do you know who won the home run crown, baseball's most glorious individual crown? Probably, but you aren't sure if he's clean or not. So which sport is in trouble?

Not that Cycling has it perfect either. Last year, two American cyclists were banned for a year each because they failed to appear for random tests at an event that they were not competing in! The bans on Cale Redpath and Alice Pennington were later lifted of course, but at least the US and World Anti-Drug Administrations actually act in their sports and will admit if they are wrong.

Baseball players did not get what was coming to them. They just signed bigger deals, raised my ticket and hot dog prices and laughed their way to the bank (and in the near future the hospital, no doubt). How many World Series rings are resting on the inflated fingers of cheaters? How many innocent guys should be stripped of theirs because their teammates were cheaters. But that is messy - you can't go back and take away awards and titles, right? Tell that to Marion Jones' Olympic Gold medal winning, world record setting teammates.

Selig made this grand move to have the Great Senator George Mitchell, the Man Who Saved Ireland, come in and clean up his sport. And in the end, he found out the who, what, when, where, and how (we knew the "why") of baseball's cheating ways and promptly brushed it under the rug. But I am sure the players' consciences are killing them and they won't cheat again, even knowing there are no repercussions.

The Key To Marital Bliss: Pink Sports Gear

From the Bowl Season to the NBA Finals, it is like a sports-hurricane. There is no time to rest or go on vacation without missing some seemingly monumental game.

First are the Bowls, which are generally overblown, annoying, corporation celebrations that include generally mediocre football since the teams haven't played in a month. But every year there is some miraculous play (or 3 if you are Boise State), upset (Boise State), or just well played, solid games, and those are what we remember in the long run anyway.

This leads directly into the NFL playoffs which are fantastic no matter who is playing. This of course brings the Super Bowl, which is always good for a party, even if the game is not up to this year's high calibre. Then there's the always amazing Pro Bowl. Just kidding.

As football's stranglehold over the American sports fans' attention gives way, the NBA decides to become interesting. The first 50 games of the NBA season are a complete waste, but the last 30 heat up as teams either start jockeying for either playoff positioning or Lottery balls. Either way, March and April are interesting for every team. Basketball is also good for dramatic story lines, like the fact that right now, the Lakers are the 3-seed and the Suns are the 6. Kobe vs. Shaq in the first round, and a rematch of the series that Kobe seemingly quit in to prove that they couldn't win without him. Nice.

Simultaneously on Versus, the NHL races heat up, but no one notices. Did you know the San Jose Sharks finished the season 18-0-2 in their last 20 games? It's not the 2007 Rockies, but that is how you go into the playoffs hot!

In the midst of the NBA and NHL stretch runs, Baseball opens its spring season and then the regular season with much fanfare (unless it happens in Japan: then no one notices). Baseball takes the driver's seat for about a week and half, just long enough for every city to get its home opener, then we all look back at hoops and hockey again.

Also overlapping with the NBA's, NHL's stretch runs, and MLB's opening is the NCAA tournament which is only the best sporting event in American sports. It doesn't involve only 8 or 16 of the 30 biggest markets in the country. Everyone is involved. Cities of less than 10,000 people see their hometown college play for it all. Games aren't just played in New York and LA (in fact, none were this year)...they're played in Spokane and Dayton. Sure, only 6-8 teams really have a chance to win it all, but in what other arena is "just being nominated" really an honor like it is for small programs who make the Dance?

The Tourney and Baseball's Opening Weekend end just in time for the NHL playoffs, which is the best sporting event in American sports that no one watches. I don't know if it is Gary Thorne's voice or just the incredible and ceaseless full speed hitting and skating, but there in nothing better than playoff hockey, when annually at least one goalie becomes superhuman and changes the sport.

The NBA playoffs are exciting too, but you get the sense that the first 3-quarters of every game are a warm-up for the fourth quarter. The series are too long, the gaps between games are too long, Bill Walton sucks, and the referees don't call the games fairly. But it is still must-see TV somehow. Damn you David Stern.

There is a little break for sports fans to go on vacation, but while on vacation, you realize that MLB is getting good, the College World Series is on, the Tour de France is on, Tennis and Golf are in Grand Slam/Major season, the Belmont Stakes may or may not mean something this year, the NFL is heading back to camp soon, and oh yeah, it's an Olympic year.

I think that Sports is a test from God to see how dedicated to staying married we all are. Fortunately, my bride has fallen in love with the Tourney and the NFL postseason, she was always a hockey fan, and I tricked her into liking baseball by buying her a pink Mets hat. Take that, God!