The Year Of The Upset Continues

Has there ever been a year when so many major sports championships were won by the team who had absolutely no chance to win? Today being the first day of fall, it seems fitting to celebrate it by marking the complete collapse of yet another massive favorite.

In the Super Bowl, the Giants were in no way expected to compete with the Patriots, who were to be crowned the greatest ever. The NCAA baseball title was won by the first unranked team in history (Fresno State). The NBA Finals were won by the team that didn't have his eminence, Kobe Bryant. There were numerous huge upsets in the Olympics (U.S. men's volleyball, U.S. women's soccer, U.S. 400 free relay [the Jason Lezak race]). The NCAA football title was won in a complete blowout by the lower seed (though this might not really qualify because Ohio State is an embarrassment to everything that was ever ranked #1 throughout history). The Tampa Bay Rays are about to clinch to A.L. East. So far in 2008, only the Red Wings didn't screw it up and lose their sure-thing title to the underdog.

And now we can add the American defeatof the Europeans in the Ryder Cup to the amazing 2008 Major Sports Upsets List. It would have been a lot more fun had the Euro's been really whiny about it like the last time we won (a decade ago). But it will be fun to see Nick Faldo get ripped in the British press for the next few week, and then in two years when this all starts up again, for playing his best three players last on Sunday so it was all over before their points counted, and for benching his best twosome on Saturday.

It is always cool to hear how much elite professional athletes still get a charge out of competing for U.S.A. Kobe Bryant has famously said the Olympics are infinitely more fulfilling than playing for a "brand or a region." Chipper Jones called the World Baseball Classic the greatest thrill of his professional career. Anthony Kim said he would not trade his Ryder Cup experience for $10,000,000. Of course, $10,000,000 is about a half of a year's pay for many professional athletes, but you get the point.

In the climate of all of these upsets, this has to make fans of the Mets, Dodgers, White Sox/Twins and Rays feel good about the next month of baseball...or so I am trying to convince myself. I just found out that not only does the WNBA still exist, but they are in the postseason. Who knew? In any case, some team with an awkward collective noun/abstract mascot will likely be upsetting another soon.

Whose Morning Was Worse? Ivanovich Or The Yankees?

The top ladies' seeds kept falling on Friday at Wimbledon leading possibly to the only match-up that would make me truly not give a damn: Venus vs. Serena. Granted, Jelena Jankovic is the highest remaining seed (2), but with the Williams sisters both playing very, very well, and with one on either side of the draw, things are shaping up to be an all men's Ladies' Final.

On Friday top seed Ana Ivanovich looked just as terrible as Maria Sharapova did when she got destroyed on Thursday. But at least Sharapova lost to someone I had heard of! Considering how badly Ivanovich struggled in her second round match against a relative unknown, and then how terribly she played Friday, she was apparently not too comfortable with the #1 target painted on her back!

The NBA Draft was Thursday night and every single team drafted at least one player with "tremendous upside," which is nice. Actually Atlanta didn't because they had already traded away both of their picks. Some teams, like the Clippers, Celtics, Pistons, were lucky enough to draft three guys with "tremendous upside."

The strangest pick of course was the Lakers at #58 who drafted Joe Crawford. I am not sure about this, but I believe this is the same Joey Crawford who is a long-time NBA referee (and noted technical foul giver and television time hogger). I was not aware that drafting refs was legal, but kudos to Mitch Kupchak for finding this little loophole. Now Crawford will not only clearly be on the Lakers' payroll while at home, but on the road as well!

So Pacman Jones is upset with the world for not allowing him to have a second chance (or seventh, as it well). He wants everyone to call him Adam Jones - his real name. Last I checked, his jersey has always read "P. Jones" and the dude has been arrested six times since joining the NFL. I think I speak for everyone when I say, show me you've changed before getting pissed at me for not noticing you've changed, Pacman. Pacman, Pacman, Pacman.

Floyd Landis' arbitration ruling is set to be released on Monday. This will be his last chance to officially clear his name and claim his 2006 Tour de France win. I am a big fan of cycling, and I watched every second of that Tour, and I have read every word of the case against him and the case for him (yes, even the famed slide show presentation). That guy is innocent. I don't care what the test showed on the day he pulled off the greatest turnaround in sports history. The test the day before showed nothing. The test the day after showed nothing, and what Landis is alleged to have done would still show up long after the initial day he allegedly did it. It also would have had no physiological benefit had he done it the morning of a race (it is a long term technique that had not long term presence in his body according to multiple tests).

And finally, the Mets played at Yankee Stadium today as a makeup for a rain-out in a series last month. That Mets won the other two games of the series and they won today, officially completing the sweep. They also scored 15 runs today, with Carlos Delgado (9), Carlos Beltran (3) and David Wright (3) accounting for all 15 runs batted in. It will be a lot less sweet if the Mets do not win Game 2 of the double-header that is being played across town at Shea this evening, but either way - this is the last time the Mets will ever play at that rathole, Yankee Stadium. Way to send it out in style.

The Greatest Upset In Sports History?

Working on the Tennis Channel's Wimbledon Primetime show, I have not had too many chances to watch any sports, let alone write about them (besides tennis), so it has been a quiet week on this site. But for anyone who has checked in to see if there were updates, at least you got to see a picture of Marisa Miller on the top of the page each time.

Last weekend Turkey beat Croatia in one of the more excruciating endings I have seen in a long time, and this game highlights many of the reasons that soccer is the stupidest sport on the planet. Croatia led 1-0 in this European Championship Soccer Tourney and in gave up a slop goal with no time left on the clock...or in overtime. You see, the clock in soccer is really only a suggestion. They play 90 minutes and the freaking clock counts up, and the goal was scored at about 90:30 or so. The game was later won in penalty kicks.

Let us count the ways in which soccer is stupid: While it provides some spectacular highlights each game, these account for approximately 5-15 seconds of the game. The other 89 minutes and 55 seconds are painfully dreary, uneventful, and annoying, full of flopping and whining and even the goal celebrations are obnoxious. The clock is an approximation of what the referees keep on the field. Really? We can land people on the moon, but we can't figure out a way to have the ref's clock send a signal to the stadium clock? Penalty kicks decide games, which is the equivalent of a basketball game being decided by dueling half-court shots rather than actual game play.

Steve Hartman was screaming in his normal radio voice today about how dreamy Dodger Stadium is, particularly the parking situation. I will give you that the parking is better than last year as the new policies seem to be finally taking hold (because they repainted the traffic lane lines to match the new system instead of last year: new system - old lanes). However, it still stinks. Hartman's example was last night's game against the White Sox. He said he stayed for the whole game, and when they left he expected a madhouse, but instead was pleasantly surprised.

Has he ever been to a Los Angeles sporting event before? Everyone knows that in order to miss the traffic you leave when it's over! The only time LA fans have stayed till the end consistently is when Eric Gagne was on his hot streak (and I am not only referring to the streaks on his forearms at the time). Not to mention that the game last night was a blowout loss so there were probably 5000 fans left at the stadium at the end.

While Hartman was blathering on about this, Vic the Brick Jacobs was screaming "If there is a problem, the McCourts fix it," "they fix it" like he had some form of non-obscene Tourettes syndrome. Apparently Vic was not referring to the roster.

Marat Safin decided to show up this morning at Wimbledon and absolutely destroyed the world's #3 Novak Djovovic. If Safin plays the rest of the tourney like he played today, that semi vs. Roger Federer will be wonderful. Speaking of Federer, perhaps Djokovic should have thought twice before offending the tennis gods by saying last week that Federer's six losses in 2008 prove he is ripe for a downfall.

You should have heard the director and producers of Wimbledon Primetime on the headsets as #1 Ana Ivanovic faced two match points against her. Let's just say that the general consensus is that Ivanovic is good for ratings. Her reaction after her shot hit the net and dribbled over on the second match point and then her kiss of the net after she won the match an hour and a half later made my crush on her deepen considerably. How nice to have the best player in the world also smile and laugh and seem to enjoy herself, but also handle herself with class! We've been spoiled with Federer, Justine Henin and now Ivanovich. I hope another Serena Williams doesn't rise through the ranks.

With the NBA draft coming up tomorrow, the sports talk radio shows in L.A. are all buzzing about the Clippers trading Elton Brand and the#7 to the Heat for Shawn Marion, Shawn Marion's contract, and the #2. I hope they don't because I'd rather have a good guy who is a great player and a possibly great pick than a jerk who is a great player and a possibly great pick. I can't imagine that the Clippers are really looking into a trade with Miami (unless Brand is not involved or Dwyane Wade is), but they have done dumb things in the past so I won't rule it out.

The other big talk is of the Lakers trading up to get Miami's pick (or someone else's). Supposedly they would unload Lamar Odom. Right, I am sure there are a lot of G.M.'s calling the Lakers clamouring to get their hands on Odom after his NBA Finals series. No doubt Miami wants him back, right?

I saw a headline online for Chad Ford's NBA Mock Draft Version 6.0. Seriously? 6? How many times can you openly admit that you were totally wrong and still be considered publishable, let alone an expert?

Remember the loudmouthed trainer who guaranteed the Triple Crown and openly used steroids on that horse as well as many of his others? I won't bother writing his name because you won't remember him, but here's a shocker: he was just suspended because one of his horses tested positive for twice the legal limit of a blood doping drug. This makes eight consecutive years he has been fined or suspended for many, many violations. Here's hoping he gets another shot at glory. Everyone deserves a 20th chance.

Finally, Fresno State's comeback victory yesterday, facing elimination in the Final round of the College World Series against of the best teams in the country, could go down in history as the penultimate crowning achievement in the greatest upset story in Sports history. Yes, that was a lot of hyperbole, but think it through:

Putting their seed in college basketball terms (since most people are more familiar with that 64-team tourney than this one), they would likely be a 15 seed. They would not have made the tourney had they not won their conference (an upset, by the way). In the first round of the tournament, beat the #7 team in the country twice (my USD Toreros) as well as the #22 team on the road (Long Beach State). Then after losing game 1 in the second round, they beat the #4 team in the country on the road twice in a row to eliminate them. In the next round they beat the #6 and #2 team (twice). And now they face the #8 team for a final game to decide the whole thing (after having split with them in the last two games).

An unranked team has beaten nine top 25 teams in the NCAA Tournament. Villanova was an eight-seed when they beat Georgetown and probably faces 2 or three ranked schools in the tourney. North Carolina State over Phi Slamma Jamma was the same. At least the 1980 U.S. Hockey team was made up of the best players in their own country - Fresno State was not top 10 in their state. The Giants-Patriots or Jets-Colts are not remotely close to that. Miracle Mets? Fresno State doesn't have Tom Seaver. If the "Under-Dogs" win today, it is the greatest upset story in Sports History. Don't miss it - 4 p.m. Pacific time on ESPN.

This is all a reminder of how insane the BCS is. In what other league in any sport in the world are the two finalists selected at the end of the regular season?

The Anatomy Of A Playoff Series

All day on Thursday I was looking forward to sitting down and watching Game 3 between the Spurs and Hornets. There are so many reasons to watch it! Chris Paul vs. Tony Parker. The Hornets were up 2-0. The Spurs and Hornets are both likable teams with likable coaches and likable fan bases. It was a key game in the series that would prove if the Hornets really were 20 points better (as they were in Games 1 and 2) or if they were just holding serve. It was a 2nd round playoff game.

Early in the first quarter I realized that I didn't care at all. Maybe it was the unwatchable colors (all white crowd, white Spurs and fluorescent yellow Hornets). Maybe it was that somewhere deep inside I knew that The Office was coming on later. Or maybe it was just boring. Why should I spend 2 hours of my life watching the teams size one another up for the fourth quarter when I can just watch the fourth quarter?

If I rooted strongly for one of these teams, of course my reaction would be different, but it led me to thinking about how playoff series work, thus:

The Anatomy of a Playoff Series

The following is the result of a painstaking research project (at least 10 minutes this morning) into the way NBA and NHL series stack up. A Major League Baseball series is a totally different animal because the starting pitcher changes a team's identity completely from game to game. Additionally, Baseball uses a 2-3-2 format while the NBA and NHL use 2-2-1-1-1. This also does not refer to MLS series because of two things: it is soccer and I couldn't care less, and their playoff format is a disaster (winning games doesn't matter...they just add up your goals totals).

Home court advantage is statistically about the same in the NBA as it is in the NHL despite certain rules in hockey that favor the home team (frozen puck substitutions and face-offs). In both sports, home teams win about 64% of the time. Numerically, being at home equates to 3.7 points in the NBA and about .4 goals in the NHL. Realistically, almost entirely psychological - a bed is a bed, a crowd is a crowd, a net is a net. In football and baseball, being at home means infinitely more.

Also note: the score never matters in the next game. There is no telling what effect a blowout or buzzer beater or quadruple overtime game will have on individual players or teams, if any. It could always be positive (win or lose), if could always be negative (win or lose), and it could always not play a role. And there are an infinite amount of other variable that can throw all what you are about to read out the window. It ain't science, folks.

Game 1: Sizing Them Up
This is mostly a statement game. Expect lots of rough play as teams try to show one another who is going to be the more physically dominating team. Coaches won't show their strategic hands too much. As long as the home team wins (whether by 50 or 1), the game doesn't really matter at all though. If the road team wins, it changes everything as home court/ice shifts.

Game 2: Settling In
In a sense, this may be one of the most crucial games of a series, but it is so early it is often overlooked. If the home team goes up 2-0, it may seem statistically irrelevant since they just held serve. But NBA teams with 2-0 leads at home go on to win nearly 70% of the time. If the road team goes up 2-0, that stat is likely much higher. If the series is split 1-1, it favors the underdog since they gain home court/ice. This shift becomes more important as the playoffs wear on since a 1-seed should be able to travel to an 8-seed's home and win. A 1 vs. a 2 is a different story.

Game 3: New Crowd
With the underdogs getting their first taste of home cooking, game 3 is a crucial one for them. You have to win game 3 at home. If either team goes up 3-0, it's over. One baseball team, two hockey teams and 1 basketball team have ever comes back to win. It ain't gonna happen. If the favorite goes up 2-1, they are on serve and the favorites hold a huge advantage still. If the underdog goes up 2-1, it is also a huge advantage, unless they lost game 3 at home. Regardless, unless it is 3-0, I am still betting on the favorite to pull it out.

Game 4: No More Flukes
The teams now know everything there is to know about each other and while any one guy can go nuts on any given night, the coaches now know what to game-plan for. Being the favorite or underdog, and holding home court or not does not matter if you go up 3-1; the series is yours. If it is the favorite up 3-1, they go home to close it out, and have two freebies before the pressure is on them in game 7 at home. If it is the underdog up 3-1, they get one freebie on the road before the pressure shifts and they have to win at home (and they have to win game 6 in this case). If it is tied 2-2, bet on the favorite, even if they just lost two games in-a-row.

Game 5: Taking Control
If the favorite is up 3-2, it is over. They get one chance to win pressure-free on the road and the road is no longer foreign to them (see Game 6). If the underdog goes up 3-2, they know they must win game 6. But in either case, knowing that you just need one win is a huge psychological advantage...for now. Game five will feel like the heaviest game because of the fear of losing and having your back against the wall (or being out 4-1, of course).

Game 6: No Such Thing As Home Court/Ice
The visitors have been in that building twice the week before and know their routine - the hotels, the restaurants, what the crowd will be like, what the sight-lines are like. There is no surprise in it. The better team will win. There is something to be said for a team down 3-2 playing with desperation, but if the team up 3-2 is prepared, that won't matter. An underdog up 3-2 must win this game or they will lose on the road in Game 7 and they know it. A favorite up 3-2 may not get up for Game 6, and the underdog must jump all over them. Also interesting is the idea that the favorite has been in their own homes, in their own beds for at least 60% of the time during the series. You would think this gives them an extra advantage in game 6 when the underdog has been traveling more frequently and could be more tired (although this shouldn't matter at this point!).

Game 7: For All the Marbles
Throw out the stats (except one). Regular season records don't matter. Scoring differentials don't matter. Who won in what city doesn't matter. All that matters is that the favorite is at home and in a Game 7, being at home matters again. Again, the advantage diminishes with each successive series, but even in the NBA Finals or Stanley Cup Finals, if the players think they have the advantage in Game 7 - they do, and if players think they are at a disadvantage - they are.

In all sports, pressure is in the minds of the players. In basketball and hockey, the home court/ice advantage is almost all in the minds of the players. That is not to say they are not real, because believing you are at an advantage gives you an advantage. But with pressure and home court/ice, it is all how you respond. If a team like the 07-08 Jazz thinks they can't be beaten at home, maybe they can't. And if a team like the 07 Giants thinks they can't lose on the road, maybe they can't (although again, in football the advantage is far clearer and more measurable). Ultimately, being at home or on the road is only as valuable as how confident it makes the players.

I also took no account of momentum here, because there is no telling what any certain win, play, call, injury, etc. will do to a player's or team's confidence. Just look at the '04 Red Sox. They had been crushed in game 3 by the Yankees and had every reason to fold up the tents. Then Dave Roberts stole second and it sparked the greatest turnaround in sports history over the next week (and over the next four years, as it were). Of course, had Roberts been picked off of second on the next play - there goes the momentum!