Stars Lay An Egg, Spurs Lay Doubts To Rest

I was very excited all day on Monday for the Spurs-Hornets game and the Stars-Wings game. Sadly, both were pretty much over in the first half hour.

Yes, the basketball game wound up going down to the wire after New Orleans scraped their way back into it, but tell me: did you ever really think San Antonio was going to lose that game once they got a lead? The Spurs were never going to lose a 9 point halftime lead. Even on the road against a "better" opponent.

The Lakers cannot be happy with this match up. Derek Fisher can't handle Tony Parker at either end. Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol can be cancelled out by Fabricio Oberto, Kurt Thomas and Tim Duncan. Vlad Radmanovich sucks. And Kobe Bryant is always an impossible cover, but Bruce Bowen is as good as anyone at doing it. And I didn't mention Manu Ginobili. The Lakers won't be able to run away and hide from the Spurs, and remember what happens to Kobe when games are close or they are down? The "new" Kobe vanishes.

In the Jazz series, in games that the Lakers won (none were particularly close) here are Kobe's average stats: 33 points per game, 8.5 for 15.8 shooting (54%), 1 for 2 on three-point attempts (50%). Here are Kobe's stats in Laker losses: 33.5 points per game, 11.5 for 29.5 shooting (39%), .5 for 8 on three point attempts (6%).

The Jazz did not do anything differently defensively in the two losses. Kobe just starts trying to take over and single-handedly erase leads...he stopped playing the offense and his teammates started watching. In losses he doubles his shot attempts, but his shooting percentage drops 15%! Forced offense leads to bad shots, which only lets the other team get layups at the other end.

Sure, the Spurs do not have great depth, and that is supposedly a great strength of the Lakers, but seriously, which bench would you rather reply on: Kurt Thomas, Ime Udoka, Michael Finley, Brent Barry and Robert Horry or Jordan Farmar, DJ Mbenga, Ronnie Turiaf, Luke Walton and Sasha Vujacic?

Spurs in 6. I don't think San Antonio can win three straight at home, or I would say Spurs in 5. The Spurs will win one in L.A., the Lakers will win one in San Antonio and the the Spurs will close it out in game six in L.A. (remember the Conference Finals mysteriously switch to a 2-3-2 format).

As for the other big game last night, Dallas pulled one out of Philadelphia's playbook and didn't show up for their big elimination game. I stopped watching after the first period. But how good is the Stanley Cup Final going to be?

Stay tuned for a recap of the Major League Baseball First Quarter-Season coming tomorrow.

NBA Action: It's The Same As Always!

The NBA should consider a new motto: The More Things Change, The More They Stay The Same.

The league saw quite a shake-up among the Who's-Who this season. The Lakers floated to the top on the backs of nobodys like Jordan Farmar and Sasha Vujacic, and near stars like Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom and Derek Fisher (let's face it, Kobe was the same amazing Kobe as always). Chris Paul and Tyson Chandler became superstars in New Orleans. The Suns and Mavs sputtered for most of the season before both bowing out early. The Spurs and Pistons aged before our very eyes. The Celtics looked like the best (and most fun) team in a long, long time. Denver and Golden State and Cleveland were cute, but were never a threat to anybody. And Utah just kept its head above water with Deron Williams looking more and more like the real deal.

The further these NBA playoffs go along, the more things seem the same as they have always been. Despite all the regular season shake-ups, with only eight teams left it now appears that it will be the same final four and same Champion as last year.

The Cavaliers have a chance to tie their series up with the Celtics tonight and although the Celtics have been the team to beat since before day one of the season when Kevin Garnett arrived, he quickly turned into Kevin Garnett when the postseason arrived. The dominating Celtics are 0-4 on the road in the playoffs and escaped one of the NBA's all-time worst playoff teams by the skin of their teeth. The LeBrons are not a championship team, but they are still better than the the Celtics have turned out to be. I think the Cavs will win tonight, and win in Boston, and then come home and close it out in Cleveland with LeBron getting at least two triple-doubles.

Orlando had a chance to even the series at home with the Pistons' best player not suited up. They lost - series over. I am tired of hearing how amazing Dwight Howard is going to be. Yes, his points and rebounds totals have improved in each of his four years. But it has been four years and his claims to fame are: he wore a Superman cape and won the dunk contest despite not actually dunking the ball, he lead the league in dunks in 07-08 and he didn't get swept out of the playoffs by the Pistons in 07-08. He's not Superman, he's the Invisible Man. 8 points in the biggest game of the season? The Pistons will win it Tuesday night and rest up before stomping on the Cavs in 5 games.

The Lakers have finally shown their true colors as well. Before the season, they were the best soap opera in town: everyone hated one another, no one trusted one another, and they all talked behind each other's backs. They came out and won a few games early and suddenly they fell in love with one another. Late in the season, Lamar Odom was asked before a game why the team chemistry had improved so drastically. The answer wasn't, "Kobe grew up," or "we just gelled as a team," or "Phil finally got through to us." It was, "well, we're winning." In Game 4 vs. the Jazz, it was the post-Shaq Lakers again. Kobe shot 33 shots and only made about a third of them. He was hurt, but on plays when he missed shots, made turnovers, got burned or wanted a foul, he was hurt much, much worse than on plays when he succeeded. Phil Jackson listlessly cried "run the offense" over and over from the sideline as Luke Walton, Jordan Farmar and Vlad Radmanovich (combined 7 points, 3-14 shooting) stood around watching the MVP sink the ship, and Ronny Turiaf was not even on the bench (though it was due to stupidity, not injury this time). Yes, the teams are even and the Lakers still have home court. But if Kobe really has a lower back injury, as tough as he is, he can't win two more games by himself. The problem is, we have now seen that when the chips are down - the New MVP Kobe becomes the old Kobe...the one that didn't win a single playoff series since Shaq left.

The Hornets - Spurs series is supposed to be the ultimate Showdown of the New NBA vs. the NBA of the last decade. The Hornets came out in the first two games and shut down the Spurs. San Antonio looked old, bored and just done. Apparently the Fountain of Youth was not in Florida, as the Spanish explorers believed; it is in San Antonio. After returning home, the Spurs dominated Games 3 and 4, so it's all tied up. So what is more likely in the final three games: The Best Team of the last decade will show their age and get run out of the building at least two out of three times, or the upstart Hornets will show their inexperience and get lulled into a close game and get outfoxed two out of three times?

After all the upheaval in the league this season, the Finals will be awfully familiar: the Spurs over the Pistons.

Lastly, has anyone else noticed the NBA Cares commercials where players talk about how they work with kids to teach them the importance of reading and education? The great irony being that the player reading the script has a reading level only slightly higher than that of the 10-year-olds he is seen talking to, and the NBA is among the lowest education levels of any profession. What percentage of players have college degrees? How many have even a second semester of completed college coursework? But I suppose who teaches a good lesson is not as important as the lesson itself.

Momentum Screeches To A Halt

It is kinda hard to find anything to write about besides the Sharks/Stars game last night. And that is really saying something because this was an amazing all-around sports weekend.

Stars 2-Sharks 1: Game 6 Quadruple overtime. This was easily the best goaltending performance I have ever seen. Evgeni Nabakov and Marty Turco combined for over 100 saves, but it wasn't just how many saves they got, it was how many spectacular saves they got when any one mistake would cost the game and possibly season. Not a hockey fan? Think of it this way: a catcher has to add about 20 pounds of weight to his pads and then stay in his crouch for 20 minutes at a time for a total of a little over 2 hours. The pitcher will then throw at him, but will try to get it by him, instead of hitting the mitt. If he drops any ball, he loses and his team is eliminated. It was the 8th longest playoff game in history and was the best I have ever watched.

The four best quotes from the 5-and-a-half hour game:
4. Vs. studio host during the 6th intermission: "If you're just tuning in, where the hell have you been?"
3. My mom as the second overtime began: "If I have to watch this crap, we're opening another bottle of wine."
2. My dad as the goalies were peppered with shots, but only 2 scored for the first 125 minutes: "It's like basketball with no rims."
1. My wife, a die-hard sharks fan, after the game: "I hate the Cowboys so much more than I ever did. I'm never going to Dallas. Stupid city."

I feel like this game was a disappointment however, because the Sharks should have won and it should have gone to game 7. How amazing would one last showdown for all the marbles, two days after this marathon be? Could Turco and Nabakov even have started? Of course they would have, but could they possibly have been effective? Would the Sharks momentum continue after having won 3-straight to tie it up? Would there be payback for the clean but hard hit by Scott Morrow on Milan Michalek? Too bad we will never know. One thing we do know: Detroit is going to destroy Dallas in game 1 of the West Finals.

I did get to thinking about momentum in sports this weekend. I have heard the expression that momentum is only as good as tomorrow's starter. I came to the conclusion that momentum is a misnomer and what we actually are talking about when we bring it up is confidence. For instance:

The Dodgers had won 8-in-a-row on Sunday. The Rockies had lost 11 of 13. Both teams' momentum was allegedly taking them in opposite directions. But the Rockies got 3 hits to start the game, they found themselves ahead, and bang: two streaks ended.

No one regular season game ever means anything more than any other. And even if the pressure feels greater in a game 7, it is no more important than game 1 was. Momentum does not build...only confidence is tested.

A 30-point win or a 10-run loss is just a win or a loss unless the players think it will or will not happen again. Either way, you have to go out and make something happen...momentum won't just do it for you.

If there was such a thing as momentum, why did the Rockets ever lose a game once they got on that amazing roll? Why did the Sharks not blow through Calgary and Dallas after entering the playoffs on a similar roll? How does a guy ever break out of a hitting slump?

They talk about momentum much more in the playoffs than any other time. Will the Celtics finally playing like a decent basketball team give them some kind of advantage over the Cavs in round 2? Not really, but if everyone on the team thinks so, and the Cavs get intimidated by what the Three-Party did to Atlanta, then yes, it could have an effect. But it is the players' heads only (which is, of course a very important factor).

The talking heads are all questioning whether the Hornets' game 1 blowout will give them a momentum advantage? The playoffs don't start until someone loses at home. The Hornets merely held serve. Does anything think the Spurs think they are out of it? It's all about confidence, not momentum.

If momentum existed, how could you account for Mission Impossible being great, the second one being an absolute travesty, and the third one being great? The answer here is simple: John Woo is the worst director in the history of film, and screwed up a perfectly good script with incessant slo-mo-diving-shooting scenes. I mean two guys with guns played chicken and dove at one another instead of just shooting each other. Didn't they watch Indiana Jones shoot the dude with the two huge swords? As Shakespeare said, "more matter, less art." But I digress...

If momentum existed, how do you explain the Celtics this year? Last year they were dead in the water. Then they got a crappy spot in the draft lottery. Then they tried to trade for Kevin Garnett and he said no and everyone said Boston was a racist city and no black players want to play there and no great black players have ever played there (never mind that that isn't true and their coach and 4/5 of the team was black). The franchise was toast. Then Garnett changed his mind. Then Ray Allen signed. Suddenly they all thought they were NBA champs, and Bostonians loved black people. Not a single ball was dribbled. Not a single shot was taken. It wasn't momentum...it was confidence!

In some instances, I suppose momentum does exist and confidence can mislead you. Like when Carlos Beltran hit a pop foul Sunday and the third baseman sprinted over, slid on the track under the ball and it landed about 10 feet behind him. I hope that wasn't on national TV...whoops.

NBA Playoff Weekend Roundup And Salma Hayek

Perhaps the biggest tragedy in sports this year will be that either the Spurs or Suns will not make the second round of the playoffs, but either the Magic or Raptors will. I suppose the NBA and the involved TV networks like the idea of having such intriguing first round match ups as the Spurs vs. Suns and having the Pistons lose game 1 at home, but at the same time they must be scared out of their minds.

When you look at it, there is not much to get excited about in in the first round. The Lakers-Nuggets series is a train wreck and will probably be a sweep or 5-gamer. Celtics might win in 3, with Atlanta just conceding. New Orleans vs. Dallas...yawn. There are some interesting subplots, but ultimately does anyone outside of New Orleans or Dallas care? Detroit - Philly is only interesting if Philly wins game 2. Otherwise, Detroit will probably just win it in 5. Utah vs. Houston could be the most boring and anonymous match up of 54-win teams in league history. FYI: Orlando and Toronto both have NBA franchises and are actually meeting in the playoffs. Cleveland vs. Washington is only interesting to see if LeBron will topple under the pressure of playing 12 against 1 every night. Even Ben Wallace's possible hairdo spectacles aren't interesting anymore. And of course, San Antonio vs. Phoenix is one of the best first round playoff match ups in any sport of my lifetime.

So one series is watchable, and it lived up to that title in Game 1 - not that I watched. I did not see any of the games this weekend because I still don't really care yet - or I don't care enough to waste two hours of my life watching the first three quarters of a game yet.

I did watch the Mets vs. Phillies Sunday night and that 6th inning rally made me really, really happy. I also think that Chase Utley would look very good hitting second between Jose Reyes and David Wright. When is his contract up in Philly? The Mets are on TV again tonight, but I get to work at the Dodgers game censoring profanity for the live telecast. This will be like knowing that Salma Hayek is standing next to me naked, but I have to watch Diane Keaton undress instead. I hate Diane Keaton.

In 2006, I was in Boston for Patriots Day. I was at a bar watching the Red Sox, and Mark Loretta hit a game-winning homer and then we ran outside to watch the winners of the Boston Marathon finish - the closest finish in history at the time. It was a pretty spectacular 5 minutes in sports-fandom. Is there a more painful/glorious ending to a sporting even that what happened this morning though? A woman out-leaned an opponent to win the marathon by 2-seconds, gaining the advantage win 100-yards left. Can you imagine dedicating your whole life to training, getting perfectly primed for the biggest event in the sport, going out and being the leader through 99.8% of a 26.2-mile race and then losing it in the last .05 miles? Spectacular.

Hello, Goodbye

The business of sports is baffling to me sometimes. Who in the Dodger's organization looked at Andruw Jones, getting fatter and fatter, slower and slower, and hitting worse and worse and thought, "that is the power-hitting center fielder we need to sure up the middle of our lineup. The guy hit .222 in a contact year hitting with Larry Jones and Mark Tiexiera. Thus far this year he has played 10 games. He's getting $18.2 million a year, or $1.2 million over these first 11 games so far. That's $308,950 per hit (4). $1.2 million per RBI (1). Infinity per run (0). Infinity per home run (0). $11 per pound gained since January 1 (approximately). But only $112,345 per strikeout (11), which is a steal!

But at least his defense is slipping and they only have $71.7 million left to pay for him.

But what really confuses me is why a city will lose a franchise because no one goes to the games, and then will immediately start begging for a new franchise. A lot of people in L.A. want an NFL franchise here. What they don't seem to remember is that we used to have two and wouldn't pay for them to stick around. So now they think some crappy expansion team, or an established team bad enough to lose their own home fan base, would sell here?

More importantly, they forget that TV coverage blows when you have a home team. We are stuck watching the Chargers play, but at least they are good. If we had a team in L.A. they would basically be the only team that we'd get to watch here. My wife's family is from the Bay Area and when we visit for Thanksgiving or Christmas, it is like football purgatory because the only games on TV are the 49ers and Raiders. No one deserves that, not even San Franciscans.

When the Charlotte fans gave up on the Hornets and the team left for New Orleans, it was not even a full season later that the NBA decided to put a new expansion team back in Charlotte. Really?

The MLS' San Jose Earthquakes were a perennial contender and they jumped ship for Houston when they couldn't get a stadium deal. Now the MLS, which apparently is booming (news to me) is placing a new expansion team back in San Jose (guess what they're called?...the Earthquakes).

I get it in a situation like when the Ravens bolted from Cleveland, or the Giants and Dodgers bolted from New York. I get it when Washington DC hadn't had a team in a long, long time and the Expos were dying in Montreal. But if the reason the original team just left was support, why will a new expansion (which is French for "terrible") team do better business?

Speaking of that Houston soccer team, their mascot is the Dynamo. Singular. The Houston Dynamo. Worst mascot in all of sports, without question. Why is it this crappy name? When they moved to Houston, they offered fans the chance to vote from among 13 choices for the new name. The fans chose Houston 1836, which is considered by some to be the year the city was founded. So the fans chose a name that hearkened back to Texas' historical richness. It was a crappy mascot, but a cool name for a team. And after all, it has worked for the 49ers and 76ers.

Apparently the name offended people of Mexican descent because besides it being the year of Houston's founding, it also happens to be the year that Texas won independence from Mexico ("Remember the Alamo", Battle of San Jacinto). So an American sports franchise had to change its patriotic name because people who used to live in another country that lost that war didn't like it. It is like making the Patriots change their name because Americans of British descent are mad about losing the Colonies still.

And "Dynamo" wasn't even one of the original 13 choices that fans voted on! So they just made it up rather than going with the #2 name. OK, so Houston had previously had two other pro soccer teams named the Dynamos. That name makes sense. I understand collective nouns being used as team names without the "s". But not a singular! And why are the Marlins not just the "Marlin"?

Why do I know or care about any of this?