The Tour Hits The Home Stretch

It would seem that the Tour de France is basically a race for third place at this point. Alberto Cantador has basically sewn up his second overall win in three years, and Andy Schleck has basically claimed 2nd (as well as the white best-young-rider jersey). Thor Hushovd ended the chase for the green sprinters/points jersey. Franco Pellizotti has ended the climb for the polka dot king of the mountains jersey. And Astana has pretty much but the team time race to bed as well. And I am running away with my fantasy group on Versus.com. But any of five men could potentially fill that third place spot on the podium in Paris on Sunday.

Or is it all that cut and dry? As we have seen, the most innocent looking crashes can occur on the easiest of stages, and can knock major contenders out in an instant (Levi Leipheimer). Not to mention that there are serious dangers on these roads that can lead to horrific crashes that could shake up the standings (Jens Voigt - pictured). But aside from a crash ruining the fun in these last four stages, how safe are the jersey-wearers?

It appears that Cantador is a lock to win it all. He widened his overall gap to 2:26 on Wednesday and has shown that he has the legs (if not the strategic expertise or teamsmanship) to out do any man on the climbs. And while he isn't the absolute best time trialist and may lose a little time to a few men on Thursday, he is excellent in that discipline and has provided himself with a massive cushion regardless. Put it in the bank: Cantador wins.

Andy Schleck finds himself in 2nd overall and should not have any trouble hanging onto that position. His closest rival is his brother/teammate Frank (:59 behind him) so there is no cause for concern there. Behind Frank is Lance Armstrong who has shown that he does have the power to plow through these climbs, but keeps being left out on quick accelerations...which Andy Schleck does well if need be on Saturday on Mont Ventoux. Plus, he has 1:19 on Armstrong and 2:18 on Andreas Kloden (5th), and 2:27 on time trial threat Bradley Wiggins (6th).

Frank Schleck in third won't attack his own brother (more because he's a teammate than a brother probably) to try to move up into 2nd, but his hold on third in Paris is only tenuous. He has shown great strength and has ridden beautifully through the first 2+ weeks, but he holds just :30 on Lance Armstrong and that is not a strong position with a time trial and brutal mountain stage remaining. Kloden is 1:19 back and Wiggins is 1:28, and both of them are threats to move up as well. By comparison, in the stage 1 time trial in Monaco, Wiggins beat Frank Schleck by 1:19, and that course was not as well-suited to Wiggins' style as the one on Thursday is. The race for third could easily be divided by 10-15 seconds among five men as they take on Mont Ventoux on the last real stage of the Tour.

Thor Hushovd rode an inspired race in stage 17, both tactically and physically. With his small lead in the green jersey competition in peril with two potential field sprints remaining, and Mark Cavendish having shown that he cannot be beaten in such a competition, Hushovd simply took the sprints out of the equation by surging ahead on a Cat 1 climb and descent, catching and passing a breakaway full of pure climbers. He put up to 2:00 between himself and the nearest man, taking wins at both of stage 17's sprint checkpoints and even winning a climb during his solo breakaway (before sitting up and actually taking a Coke from his team car as he waited for the field to catch him, his job done).

Pellizotti likely ended the king of the mountains chase in stage 16 when he got into yet another breakaway (a daily occurrence for Pellizotti) and took maximum points over both of the day's climbs. Astana took over the team time lead in stage 15 before doubling their lead to just over two-and-a-half minutes in stage 16. They then added nearly 14 minutes to the lead in stage 17, no thanks to Cantador's inexplicable attack on the final climb that pre-empted a move planned for Kloden. Vincenzo Nibali has kept the race for the best young rider competition respectable (2:43 behind Schleck through stage 17), but he hasn't shown that he can keep up with Schleck, let alone take that much time away from him over these last few stages.

Looking ahead, Fabian Cancellara is a big favorite to win the time trial on Thursday, just as he did in stage 1 in Monaco. Cancellara is over an hour-and-a-half behind the leaders though and is of no concern. All eyes will be on Wiggins (6th overall) who was third in stage 1, losing 1 second to Cantador but beating each of his other rivals for the podium in Paris by as much as 80 seconds.

Stage 19 looks like a possible bunch sprint where the leaders will not bother to attack one another at all (just one Cat. 2 climb and two Cat. 4's.) and will rest on their time gains from the time trial. That sets up a potential classic on Saturday's penultimate stage with four moderate climbs culminating in the Highest Category climb to an uphill finish on Mont Ventoux. No lead is really safe on this climb as an agressive rider who is able to break away from the pack of leaders could easily take 2-3 minutes out of the group on that climb alone. And stage 21 will likely be Cantador's coronation through the streets of Paris as Cavendish bolts one last time for a stage win.

Contenders:
1. Alberto Cantador
2. Andy Schleck +2:26
3. Frank Schleck +3:25
4. Lance Armstrong +3:55
5. Andreas Kloden +4:44
6. Bradley Wiggins +4:53
7. Vincenzo Nibali +5:09

Tour De France Rest Day Recap II

Stages 1-9: Astana Dominating On The Roads And In The Papers
Lance Armstrong's Team Astana dominated the Tour de France in all senses for the first 10 days. They had four men in the top 6 through the first 9 stages, and were all the talk in between races because of the supposed fireworks going off within the team. Was there ever really any question whether Armstrong or Spaniard Alberto Cantador was the team leader or was it all conjecture by the media? Or did the Astana gand prop up the story to their competitors in the dark as to the team's plans? For the early part of the race, Armstrong and Cantador both looked like they had the form to win it all, and their team seemed bullerproof enough to send either man (and possibly two others) to the podium in Paris.

Stage 10: The Radios Weren't The Only Things Turned Off
The International Cycling Union is the sports governing body and in their infinite wisdom, they decided to experiment with not allowing managers to talk to riders during a race via radios during the most important event in the sport. It's kinda like if the NFL tried out a new rule where the sidelines couldn't give any hand signals to the players during the 2nd quarter of the Super Bowl. Yes, there are professional sports where coaches do not communicate with players and it can work fine (tennis), but why bother test it out here?

Stage 10 was to be the first of two stages that would be run without radios and 14 of the 20 teams signed a petition asking for the decision to be reversed. It wasn't and in a moderate show of protest, the riders simply took the day off. They rode the course, but the wild attacks and aggressive riding expected from the radio-free riders were nowhere to be found. It was a complete snoozer to the point where the UCI admitted their mistake and decided to allow the radios to be used in stage 13.

The one interesting thing that did happen was that as the peloton all cross the finish line in a giant pack, at one point there was a slight gap between two packs in the same group...maybe a half of a second's worth. In an amazingly arbitrary and unfair ruling, the race referee decided that this one-bike-length-gap constituted a break in the peloton and awarded different times to the two groups (everyone in a group at the finish gets the same time as the person in the front of the group to protect riders from over-aggressive riding among 100 or more riders piled up at the finish). This caught major contenders American Levi Leipheimer and Brit Bradley Wiggins out and they lost 15 seconds on the lead, dropping from 4th to 5th and from 5th to 7th, respectively. The ruling was quickly reversed the next day after all 20 teams complained and the referree decided to review the tape.

Stages 11-13: Green, Polka Dot Jerseys Change Hands; Yellow, White Stay Put
The battle for the green jersey (sprint points) Brit Mark Cavendish and Norwegian Thor Hushovd took center stage as the Tour traveled back down out of the Pyrenees and into the flat transitional stages in central France before they head back up into the Alps. American first-timer Tyler Farrar nearly outfoxed Cavenish at the line in stage 11, but Cavendish's kick proved too strong as he won his 3rd stage of the Tour. Hushovd finished 5th in the stage.

The flat stage didn't go completely as planned as Leipheimer went down in a seemingly innocent crash in the final 2 miles, but broke his wrist and was unable to start the next morning for stage 12. Besides his own ambitions, this is a tough blow for Armstrong, Cantador, and Astana, for whom Leipheimer is a great supporter. For those who were able to go in stage 12, it was a day for the breakaway as seven men survived in front of the peloton over the six category 3 and 4 climbs in this not-so-flat flat stage. Cavendish once again out-sprinted the pack to widen his yellow jersey lead and Team Saxo Bank took over the team-time lead thanks to Nikki Sorenson picking up almost six minutes on the peloton in his solo win.

Stage 13 might actually have been an explosive stage if the riders were not allowed radios like initially planned. With a category 1 climb, two Cat 2's, and 2 Cat 3's, it would have been unlikely for the peloton to servive together without the scouting that team cars provide. As it was, Astana continued to push the pace through (as they have for most of the Tour), but kept their cards close to the vest by not attacking. Saxo Bank made a quick attack on the Cat 1 up Col du Platzerwasel, but it was more of a heat-check than anything. Once the move was countered by basically every contender on ever team, Andy Schleck and Saxo Bank cooled back down and the peloton regathered for the final 40 miles-or-so.

Hushovd was able to get into a breakaway and finish 6th in stage 13. As it is quite unusual for a sprinter for go in in a break, he gained 15 points on Cavendish and took the green jersey. Italian Franco Pellizotti took over the king-of-the-mountains crown from Spaniard Egoi Martinez as well, but the team time lead stayed with Saxo Bank and the leaderboard remained unchanged once again (Italian Rinaldo Nocentini in yellow and German Tony Martin in white).

Stage 14: American Revolution
As seems to be the pattern for this Tour, what was supposed to be a run-off-the-mill flat stage wound up providing the most sparks of any stage perhaps in years. With only two moderate Cat 3 climbs, everyone knew there would be a breakaway and what remained to be seen was who would get into it and how much time the contending teams would allow them to gain. The breakaway went early and the biggest name in the bunch was the current patriarch of American cycling, George Hincapie (5:25 off the lead entering the stage) of the American team Columbia.

A little back-story: Hincapie was once the right hand man of Lance Armstrong on Discovery and U.S. Postal Service and helped deliver all seven of his Tour wins. His manager with those teams is Armstrong's manger currently with Astana. Hincapie is one of the most respected and well-liked riders by fans, the press, and other riders. His current team, Columbia, has something of a rivalrly with the other major American squad, Garmin. Hincapie is not a threat to contend for the next seven stages, so even if he were to make up all 5:25 and take over, it is no real concern to any of the general classification contenders.

As the breakaway's lead reached around four minutes, Team Astana took the reigns of the peloton, controlling the pace and allowing the breakaway to extend their lead, but at a controlled pace - not so much that they'd get away and Hincapie would wind up with a huge lead overall, but not so little that anyone else would be tempted to make their own attack. As the lead approached nine minutes, Astana peeled away from the front of the peloton and let AG2R make a last play to hang onto their man's yellow jersey. When it looked like AG2R would not have the firepower to get the breakaway back inside the gap needed to keep Nocentini in the overall lead, Garmin jumped in to help the pacemaking, essentially fighting for no reason to keep Hincapie out of the yellow jersey (in perhaps his last Tour de France)! Hincapie wound up finishing just 5 seconds short of the overall lead.

Later, Garmin team officials would say that it was a strategic move intended to protect the overall hopes of their men American Christian Vandevelde and Wiggins, but it is no secret that Hincapie will likely lose 20 minutes or more once they hit the Alps, so that argument doesn't hold water. Hincapie was extremely upset after the race, blaming his friends at Astana and fellow Americans at Garmin for taking the jersey away for no good reason, but ultimately Astana let Hincapie to stretch his lead out by five minutes while they were in charge of the pace-setting. Bruyneel actually went so far as to say that stretegically, they would have prefered Hincapie to take over yellow and have Columbia to have to defend it. Will Hincapie, Columbia, or anyone loyal to him take revenge on Garmin in later stages?

Stage 15: Cantador Puts The Controversy To Bed
When he made a bold attack on a climb early in the Tour and stole less than 20 seconds from Armstrong, we wondered if Cantador was feeling vulnerable and attacked to protect himself. We wondered if this would provoke Armstrong into finding that gear that seemingly only he has. We wondered if the move was really as dominant as it appeared of if the rest of the contenders had let it go since it was so late in the day and so early in the Tour, they wouldn't lose much time anyway. Cantador answered all those questions, and all the ones about who was the Astana leader with an absolutly dominant charge up the first Cat 1 Alps climb of the Tour.

Asked about their strategy on this first Alpine stage, Armstrong and Bruyneel both joked before the stage that we would see something special that day. "We have a little plan," Bruyneel said with a smile. It seems now that Astana knew all along that Cantador was the stronger man, but they dangled Armstrong, with his fearsome reputation and massive media appeal, in front of the rest of the field as a distraction. When the time came, Armstrong fought off attacks from Saxo Bank and Garmin before seemingly telling Cantador it was time to go, and boy did he go!

Like a canon shot, Cantador put a gap between himself and his chief rivals so fast that even the explosive climbing legs of Andy Schleck couldn't keep up. Cantador blew through the straggling breakway riders on the climb up Verbier in Switzerland and launched himself right onto the top step of the podium in Paris next week. In the end, he stole away the yellow jersey, and gained 43 seconds on Schleck, who finished second, as the standings were completely rewritten. Armstrong looked beaten as he struggled to remain in contact up the final climb but was able to move up into 2nd place overall, with Wiggins, teammate Andreas Kloden, and Schleck now breathing down his neck. And while he missed the initial charge up the final climb and found himself in a huge defecit, defending champion Carlos Sastre finished the climb faster than even Cantador and is something of a dark-horse podium threat in 11th place.

As for the jerseys, in the end Astana assumed control of the team time lead; Cantador of course took yellow; Hushovd snuck back into green; Andy Schleck took over in white; Pellizotti remained in polka dots.

Leaders:
1. CONTADOR Alberto (Spain), Team Astana
2. ARMSTRONG Lance (USA), Team Astana, +01' 37"
3. WIGGINS Bradley (UK), Garmin - Slipstream, +01' 46"
4. KLÖDEN Andréas (Germany), Team Astana, +02' 17"
5. SCHLECK Andy (Luxembourg), Team Saxo Bank, +02' 26"
6. NOCENTINI Rinaldo (Italy), AG2R-La Mondiale, +02' 30"
7. NIBALI Vincenzo (Italy), Liquigas, +02' 51"
8. MARTIN Tony (Germany), Team Columbia-HTC, +03' 07"
9. LE MEVEL Christophe (France), Francaise Des Jeux, +03' 09"
10. SCHLECK Frank (Luxembourg), Team Saxo Bank, +03' 25"

Other Notables
11. SASTRE Carlos (Spain), Cervelo Test Team, +03' 52"
12. VANDEVELDE Christian (USA), Garmin-Slipstream, +03' 59"
13. HINCAPIE George (USA), Team Columbia-HTC, +04' 05"
14. EVANS Cadel (Australia), Silence-Lotto, +04' 27"
29. MENCHOV Denis (Russia), Rabobank, +11' 23"

Tour De France Rest Day Recap

Stages 1-3
As expected, Fabian Cancellara won the stage 1 individual time trial and his Saxo Bank squad worked to protect his overall lead for the first few stages, and stage 2 ended with a bunch sprint won by the world's best sprinter, Mark Cavendish. None of the major contenders had stuck their necks out and were content to wait to the high mountains before testing their opponents. Stage 3 saw a bit of a shake-up as the peloton got split in two on a windy day along the Mediterranean, with only Lance Armstrong finding a place in the front half of the split among the contenders. Armstrong vaulted from 10th to 2nd overall, with teammate and Tour favorite Alberto Cantador just 19 seconds back in third place. Cavendish won the sprint finish in stage 3 as well.

Stage 4 - Team Time Trial

While the yellow jersey is awarded to the individual with the fastest overall time, he cannot win it without the support of his team. This idea was never more evident than in stage 4 when Cadel Evans dropped to 2:59 behind the leaders and 35th place overall because his team was not strong enough to keep pace with the top teams. Evans' hopes for a Tour victory all-but vanished just four days in, and before they even got a glimpse of their first mountain. Other contenders, such as Denis Menchov (crashed - 72nd +3:52), defending champion Carlos Sastre (29th +2:44), and Andy Schleck (20th +1:44) lost huge chunks of time as Team Astana (pictured) rolled to top times at each time check, including the finish.

Garmin-Slipstream had the best race of the day, going out so fast that they dropped four of their nine teammates around 1/3 of the way through the course. With only five remaining riders in a race against the clock that doesn't stop until your fifth rider crosses the finish line, Garmin gained time on every other team in the field but Astana, vaulting Brits Bradley Wiggins and David Millar into 6th and 10th, and Americans David Zabriskie and Christian Vandevelde into 9th and 12th overall.

Astana mopped up on the field, placing riders in 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 7th, and 11th in the overall standings and pulling Armstrong into a virtual tie with Cancellara for the overall lead (Cancellara held on by 22 hundredths-of-a-second after 10 hours, 38 minutes of racing).

Stages 5-6: No Change At The Top

With so many riders losing so much time in the team time trial, and with the Pyrenees looming in stage 7, this was the last chance for many riders to steal a few minutes from the leaders by getting into breakaways. The expression goes that the no one wins the Tour de France in the early stages, but they can lose it. So the big contenders were content to let the breakaways go and to only chase them down when the gaps got big enough to shake up the top of the leader board.

The field let Aussie David Millar go in stage 5 and after escaping a breakaway pack with about 15 miles remaining; he actually extended his lead on the field while riding solo. Millar started the day just 1:07 behind the yellow jersey, so eventually the peloton took notice of his attack and slowed reeled him in before finally catching him with only a little over .5 mile remaining. This was the first day that the Tour fought through rain and it played a huge role, with many crashes slowing the field down allowing Millar to escape in the first place.

Frenchman Thomas Voeckler (pictured) was able to do in stage 7 what Millar had been unable to do to stage 6. Voeckler got into a breakaway group early on and finally went solo. Voeckler started the day nearly 7 minutes behind Cancellara for the yellow jersey, so the chase was not as intense and he lived to win the stage, holding off the peloton by just :07.

Stage 7: Let The Games Begin

The press had been making news of the supposed rift among the members of Team Astana for months: who would the team support, Armstrong or Cantador? The riders themselves had been saying all the right things: it was Cantador's team to lose, Armstrong is a great champion, we are all professionals and there is no rift, etc. On the roads, the team seemed unified as well. Where was this rift? Armstrong had quietly moved ahead of Cantador three days earlier in a lucky break and there had been no change among the other leaders in four days, but this year's longest stage, stage 7, would take the Tour to its third highest peak ever, finishing at the top of Arcalis in Andorra - it would be a the perfect chance for the Astana battle to go up a notch, and for forgotten contenders to make some noise.

For the first time, Cancellara faltered, falling from the top spot as Team Astana ruthlessly pushed the pace for nearly the entire stage 7, taking the wind out of the sails of any possible attackers. When Schleck or Evans or Sastre moved to the front of the peloton, Armstrong, Cantador, Levi Leipheimer, and Andreas Kloden were quick to defend their team's dominant position. Finally Cantador was the one to make a successful attack, surging away from the pack in the stage's final mile. While it looked like Armstrong could have answered and kept with him, he instead stayed back and to force his rivals to go after his teammate's surprise move - he wouldn't do the work for them.

Armstrong surrendered 21 seconds to his teammate, dropping to third behind new leader Rinaldo Nocentini (who had survived in a breakaway to take the overall lead by 6 seconds, pictured) and Cantador (who now led Armstrong by 2 seconds). Cantador had broken many unwritten rules of conduct by attacking his own teammates who had been doing the pace-setting. According to teammate Leipheimer, the surprise move was Cantador's own idea, and not part of the team strategy. Armstrong, always the professional, had supported his surging teammate on the road by fighting off attackers for him, and afterwards would not bite at probing questions about the team's mindset.

Stage 8-9: Here Come The Contenders

After Cantador's sudden bolt into the lead of Astana, the team insisted that there were no problems in the clubhouse, so to speak. Armstrong said, "Even if there were some hurt feelings, we're gonna do out job. We're all professionals." After a team meeting before stage 8, Astana manager Johan Bruyneel said that he had addressed Cantador's move and that there was some tension but that they'd do their jobs. Reading between the lines, it wasn't clear who the team supported (Cantador who seemed to have the better legs, or Armstrong who seemed to be in the right), but it was clear that there was officially a problem with the team.

With Astana suddenly in apparent turmoil, it seemed that the remaining two day in the Pyrenees would be filled with attacks from contenders, even if it was earlier in the Tour than most had probably planned to make any moves. Evans made an early move in stage 8 to get into a breakaway along with a few other big names (Zabriskie, Vladimir Efimkin, Thor Hushovd, George Hincapie, Cancellara, Juan Antonio Flecha, and Egoi Martinez), but Astana refused to let them go until Evans dropped out of the pack. He did, and off they went. Schleck attacked on the final climb of the day but was quickly answered by Armstrong and Astana.

Eventually, a select group of 11 riders (Armstrong, Cantador, Schleck, Frank Schleck, Evans, Kloden, Wiggins, Vandevelde, Sastre, Leipheimer, and Menchov) climbed away from the peloton and caught the breakaway. Having established their strength, the leaders allowed the yellow jersey and peloton to catch back up and finished together after a long descent.

Stage 9 shaped up nearly identically, with a long descent late, allowing the field to reassemble after separating out in the early climbs. Armstrong led Astana in running down dangerous early moves as they neared the climb up Col du Tourmalet (the 4th highest peak in Tour history) which is a 10.6 mile Highest Category climb up to 6939 ft. AG2R set the pace in protecting the yellow jersey of their man, Nocentini, and there were no major moves from any of the main contenders as they all finished with the same time once again.

Stage 10: A Hush Falls Over The Crowd

The Tour de France has decided to not allow teams to use radio communication between team cars and riders in stages 10 and 13, a decision that hasn't been well received among all the teams and riders. Supposedly Bruyneel has a petition signed by at least 14 of the 20 teams asking for the radios to be allowed or they will boycott the stages. Garmin's manager Matt White says that having no radio is not that big an issue in reality because their use is relatively new anyway. Garmin was one of the teams that did not sign the petition.

Assuming the stage goes off as planned, and assuming there is any attacking whatsoever, look for veteran riders who may have raced in the days before radios to take advantage of younger men. It is a flat stage and should not cause any shake-up of the contenders, but the radio-situation could be quite a wild-card. It is also Bastille Day so a betting man would be wise to put money on a Frenchman (Voeckler in particular) to make a breakaway for the stage win.

Stages 10-15 are all relatively flat stages and there is not likely to be much change in the leader board, nor much news from the Astana camp until at least when they hit the Alps in stage 16.

Leaders

1. NOCENTINI Rinaldo (Italy), AG2R-La Mondiale, 34h 24' 21"

2. CONTADOR Alberto (Spain), Astana, + 00' 06"

3. ARMSTRONG Lance (USA), Astana, + 00' 08"

4. LEIPHEIMER Levi (USA), Astana, + 00' 39"

5. WIGGINS Bradley (UK), Garmin-Slipstream, + 00' 46"

6. KLÖDEN Andréas (Germany), Astana, + 00' 54"

7. MARTIN Tony (Germany), Team Columbia - HTC, + 01' 00"

8. VANDEVELDE Christian (USA), Garmin-Slipstream, + 01' 24"

9. SCHLECK Andy (Luxembourg), Saxo Bank, + 01' 49"

10. NIBALI Vincenzo (Italy), Liquigas, + 01' 54"

Other Notables

13. SCHLECK Frank (Luxembourg), Saxo Bank, + 02' 25"

16. SASTRE Carlos (Spain), Cervelo, + 02' 52"

18. EVANS Cadel (Australia), Silence-Lotto, + 03' 07"

27. MENCHOV Denis (Russia), Rabobank, + 05' 02"

28. HINCAPIE George (USA), Team Columbia - HTC, + 05' 25"

69. ZABRISKIE David (USA), Garmin-Slipstream, + 29' 50"