NCAA Tourney 2011: Nicole's Crystal Ball (Part 4)

Third Round

Ohio State over George Mason: "Ooh, I really like the masons.  1 vs. 8 though.  Fat guy vs. Free Masons.  Fat people make me feel better."  Result: correct [Note: The "fat guy" is the Buckeye mascot.]

Clemson over Princeton: "Tigers vs. Tigers! But Clementines are cute and yummy." Result: incorrect, both teams had lost in the 2nd round.

Syracuse over Xavier: "Professor X vs. Jeff.  6 vs. 3.  Jeff gets a little help; let's have him go one more." Result: incorrect, Syracuse lost to Marquette in this game. [Note: Jeff is a former co-worker, Jeff Suss.]

North Carolina over Georgia: "Upsetting UNC?  I don't like Peaches that much." Result: correct [Note: "Peaches" is a friend, Andy Etters, who is from Georgia.]

Duke over Michigan: "Ooh, Wolverines...but it's 1 vs. 8.  Who did you pick? [Duke]  That dude coaches the Olympics.  Yes to Duke." Result: correct

Arizona over Texas: "[In Will Farrell's George W. Bush voice:] 'Don't mess with Texas.'  Wildcat vs. a longhorn.  That's an interesting fight.  The wildcat is quicker; wildcats would win.  We've gotta start getting more serious about this mascot thing." Result: correct

Connecticut over Missouri: "Connecticut!  It's our street!  And you were born there.  Ooh, that means first boyfriend vs. second.  But I married the second one.  Boom!" Result: correct

San Diego State over Penn State: "San Diego is a whale's vagina.  Look it up; it's in the Geneva Convention." Result: correct [Note: These are paraphrases of two different lines from two different Will Farrell movies.  Between these, the Texas line and her obsession with cougars because of Talladega Nights, she's basing most of her picks on his comedy in one way or another.] 

Kansas over Illinois: "1 vs. 9.  1 always goes at least two rounds." Result: correct

Vanderbilt over Morehead State: "V." Result: incorrect, Vanderbilt had lost in the second round.

Georgetown over St. Peter's: "Aren't they just bulldogs with spikey collars?  Do that one." Result: incorrect, both teams had lost in the second round.

Notre Dame over Texas A&M: "Notre Dame!" Result: incorrect, Notre Dame lost of Florida State in this game.

Pittsburgh over Butler: "Panther is close to cougar.  Although Pittsburgh does have an NFL team.  [I told her that Butler is near Indianapolis, which also has an NFL team.]  Both have NFL teams, but a cougar would kill a bulldog." Result: incorrect, Butler won this game.

Wisconsin over Utah State: "Double-U beats U." Result: correct

BYU over Gonzaga: "Cougs! [As Farrell's Ricky Bobby:] 'How can I control my heartbeat!?'" Result: correct

UCLA over Florida: "Ooh, that's a tough one.  Go Sharks, but a gator vs. a bear?  Now that would be awesome.  [As Jim Halpert:] 'What kind of bear is best?'  Bear is best." Result: incorrect, Florida won this game. [She said "Go Sharks" because the Florida fans do the same arm-movement-chomp as San Jose Sharks fans.]

(Results: 9-7 but with seven-of-eight elite eight teams left, three-of-four final four, one finalist, and her champion)

Sweet Sixteen

Ohio State over Clemson: "Oranges can't beat fat people.  The fat people would just eat them." Result: incorrect, Kentucky won this game.

North Carolina over Syracuse: "We already helped Jeff for two rounds.  And I like blue." Result: correct

Duke over Arizona: [As Farrell in Old School:] "You're my boy, Blue!" Result: incorrect, Arizona won this game.

Connecticut over San Diego State: "Whoa, this is interesting.  Alright, let's play this out.  Aztecs vs. Huskies.  San Diego vs. Connecticut so where we met vs. where you were born.  San Diego has an NFL team that I don't like.  Wait, is this 'UConn'?  I love UConn!"  Result: correct

Kansas over Vanderbilt: "Jayhawk is like an Indian, right? [It's a bird.] Oh.  Well a Commodore is like a pirate.  And that guy from Pirates was a total sissy, so Kansas is more legit.  More American.  And they're the 1-seed." Result: correct [Note: I assume the guy from Pirates is Johnny Depp.]

Notre Dame over Georgetown: "Both Catholics, oh shoot.  The numbers are 2 and 6.  And I've been to Notre Dame.  [We've been to Georgetown, too.]  Yeah, but I was in Notre Dame's gym.  And I was the mascot there.  [Actually, I was the mascot there.  You were a cheerleader.]  Shut up.  And don't write that.  It's St. Patrick's Day; Irish win." Result: incorrect, VCU beat Florida State in this game. [Note: All of that happened in the 2000 Women's NCAA Tournament when USD played at Notre Dame in the first round.  Nicole was our school's mascot but stepped in for an ill cheerleader for that game and I went as the mascot so I could go to the game for free during spring break.  But I'm gonna be in big trouble when she sees I wrote that.]

Wisconsin over Pittsburgh: "Cougars vs. Beavers?  Please.  [Actually it's Panthers and Badgers.]  Whatever.  I hate Pittsburgh; the Steelers suck and that guy needs a haircut.  And my cousin, Blake, went to Wisconsin and he needs good news." Result: incorrect, Butler won this game.  [Note: I'm not sure the guy who needs a haircut is, but I assume Troy Polamalu.  Blake was in a terrible car accident a few months ago and is recovering.]

BYU over UCLA: "Oh man, a coug vs. a bear!  Cougs.  I have to be consistent." Result: incorrect, Florida won this game. [Note: Consistent with what?  They're the only cougars in the tournament.]

(Results: 3-5, with one Final Four team, one finalist and her champion left)

Elite Eight

Ohio State over North Carolina: "What city is Ohio State in? [Columbus] I do like Christopher Columbus. But I like UNC's blue.  But our frisbee team is Flip Cup and we're red.  They're both public.  I like Duke better than Carolina." Result: incorrect, Kentucky won this game.

Connecticut over Duke: "Whoa.  That's hard.  I love Duke.  And UConn's blue too.  And it's Connecticut.  1 vs. 3.  That's close.  What did you pick? [Duke] But you're from there and we live on it.  Blue Devils and Huskies.  I picked Duke last year, so not Duke again." Result: correct

Notre Dame over Kansas: "Notre Dame." Result: incorrect, VCU won this game.

BYU over Wisconsin: "Cougs." Result: incorrect, Butler beat Florida in this game.

(Results: 1-3, with one finalist and her champion still left)

Final Four

Connecticut over Ohio State: [Long pause while considering this one closely.] "UConn has a cooler name.  And we live on Connecticut Street, and you were born there.  And all Ohio has going for them is flip cup and fat people." Result: correct
Notre Dame over BYU: "Catholics vs. Mormons.  Blowout!" Result: incorrect, Butler beat VCU in this game.
(Results: 1-1, with her champion still left)

Championship Game
Connecticut over Notre Dame: "I really like Notre Dame, but I just can't do it.  The NFL really pissed me off.  So UConn." Result: correct [Note: While Notre Dame is not in an NFL city, it is in Indiana, home of the Colts.]

Tie-Breaker: Championship Score
"Connecticut will get 78 because you were born there in that year.  And Notre Dame will get 73 because 7 and 3 are the holy numbers.  7 sins and the Trinity!  So 78-73."

Some new patterns have emerged.  Any vague connection to any Will Farrell movie or line is usually worth one or two picks.  This used to just be for Talladega Nights, but it seems to now be all of them.  

Notre Dame is her favorite school, for sure.  Second is Duke and she obviously is starting to like Connecticut a lot too.

Part 1: Results through the Round of 64

Part 2: Statistical Comparisons of Nicole's system vs. AP, RPI, seeds and Sagarin through Round of 32

Part 3: Nicole's Round of 64 Pick

Part 4: Nicole's Round of 32 through Championship Picks

Part 5: Final Statistical Results (coming Thursday)

Tourney Bonus Coverage: The Jim Nantz-pun-o-meter game (coming soon)

NCAA Tourney 2011: Nicole's Crystal Ball (Part 3)

The dust has settled and Nicole won both bracket contests she entered again this year.  So whether it makes any sense or not, we have to allow for the fact that whatever she is doing works.  How well?  She ranked in the 98th percentile nationally on Yahoo! and approximately 1.1 million people were entered there.  So pretty well.

As you will see from her picks and reasoning below, and as I've written before, she is partial to cougars (or similar), the color blue, states/schools she likes or has some connection to, schools that start with "V", single-word names, intimidating mascots, private/Catholic schools, and, if all else fails, better seeds.  She also said this year that she was against schools in NFL cities because of the lockout (actually it was because she got me the Sunday Ticket for Christmas and I may not get to enjoy it because of the lockout).  She also said that she no longer favors schools from the South or around New Orleans because the Saints won the Super Bowl.

As always, I told her the schools, seeds and mascots.  Sometimes she asked for more information like colors, cities and public/private.  Sometimes she knew that already.  Believe it or not, no alcohol was consumed prior to picking, but it was really late at night.

East Round 2
Ohio State over UTSA: "Aren't the Buckeyes that fat guy? But I don't want to look stupid, so I pick the far people.  They'll motivate me to lose weight." Result: correct
George Mason over Villanova: "Tough because it's a V school.  But National Treasure had the Masons and Nicholas Cage needs a break. Result: correct
Clemson over West Virginia: "Clementine oranges: cute name though Tigers are way better." Result: incorrect, West Virginia went on to the 3rd round.
Princeton over Kentucky: "Wildcats vs. Tiger is a great battle.  Let's do Princeton; I really like them.  And KFC sucks." Result: incorrect, Kentucky went on to the Final Four. [Note: Nicole knows nothing about Princeton basketball and presumably likes them because they're smart kids.]
Xavier over Marquette: "Isn't 'Xavier' spelled with an 'x'?  That guy from X-Men is pretty bad-ass.  That would be a huge word on Words with Friends [like scrabble]." Result: incorrect, Marquette went on to the Sweet 16.
Syracuse over Indiana State: "Didn't Syracuse win last year? [No]  Jeff [Suss, a former colleague] went there and he has to move to Portland.  Orangemen is a really cool mascot, like my Clementines!  Sycamores is lame dude.  Trees?" Result: correct [Note: When I told her that Larry Bird went to Indiana State, she said, "Bird is overrated."]
Georgia over Washington: "Peaches [Andy Etters, a former ultimate teammate] is from Georgia.  Do they have the NFL? [They both do.]  Oh man, the Seahawks is Pete Carroll.  Bulldogs vs. Huskies...hmm...that's a tough one.  I really don't like Carroll." Result: incorrect, Washington went on to the 3rd round.
North Carolina over Long Island: "Long Island is barely even a state. [In fact, it's not one.] I know UNC is good and plus, they match USD's colors." Result: correct

West Round 2
Duke over Hampton: "The Hamptons suck.  The Hamptons is like wannabe-Malibu.  It's all rocks.  Stupid." Result: correct [Note: She's never been to the Hamptons and I think she's thinking of Cape Cod.]
Michigan over Tennessee: "Right off the bat, I was thinking Wolverines because we already have a Xavier.  That would be cool.  Plus, "Volunteer"?  That's really your mascot?  Does a Wolverine have claws?  Wait, is it a fictional character? [She forgets that it's a real animal every year.] I feel like Wolverines is better than Cougars." Result: incorrect, Michigan went on to the 3rd round.  [Note: This Wolverines vs. Cougars thing really floored me.  Cougar-superiority has been at the core of her entire system for years.  I though she was doomed after this.]
Arizona over Memphis: "Wildcats are pretty sissy, right...vs. a tiger?  David Levin [co-worker] went to Arizona and I promised him one.  He made me feel welcome at work." Result: correct
Texas over Oakland: "Isn't that the Texas where Wendy went?  Oakland here sucks.  But I do work there.  Oh, Wendy.  Screw her!  She moved away from us.  What's the other team's number? [13 vs. 4].  No chance.  Plus, I like Wendy. [Note: We actually moved away almost a year before Wendy did, but she did move further.]
Missouri over Cincinnati: "Bearcats?  That name is just too long.  But I had an old boyfriend that went to Mizzou.  How can I take that school seriously?  How do you even spell Cincinnati?  Oh!  The Bengals!  F those guys." Result: incorrect, Cincinnati went on to the 3rd round.
Connecticut over Bucknell: "Buck 'em off the list!" Result: correct [Note: she was extremely proud of this pun.  Jim Nantz would have been, as well.]
Penn State over Temple: "Stupidest mascots ever. [I explained that a Nittany Lion is a local mountain lion.] You have a Penn State shirts, right?  And 'Owl'?  Seriously?" Result: incorrect, Temple went on to the 3rd round.
San Diego State over Northern Colorado: "SDSU is a 2?  Northern Colorado...too many words ["San Diego State" has more words] Both have NFL teams, so it's a tie.  Go with the numbers [seeds]." Result: correct

Southwest Round 2
Kansas over Boston: "Terriers?  Like the dog?  Those are kick-dogs." Result: correct [A kick-dog is apparently a dog small enough to punt.]
Illinois over UNLV: "How can you even take a school seriously from Las Vegas?" Result: correct
Vanderbilt over Richmond: "Spiders?  Jeff [Donlevy, my brother-in-law] went to Vandy and it's a "V" school.  And he let us stay at their house for a week over Christmas.  And he gave us Dom Perignon at New Years!" Result: incorrect, Richmond went on to the Sweet 16.
Morehead State over Louisville: "I have a hard time taking that one seriously because it sounds like Louis Vuitton.  Morehead is funny.  Go with the funny one." Result: correct [Note: It's moment like this where you realize her genius.  She thinks sounding like a designer disqualifies you from winning, but a penis joke makes you win.]
Georgetown over Virginia Commonwealth: "Too many words." Result: incorrect, VCU went on to the Final Four.
St. Peter's over Purdue: "I like St. Peter's Basilica.  And it's Catholic and private.  Is the other one Catholic?  [No]  Both mascots are kinda lame.  14 over 3...that's impossible.  But 'Purdue' sounds like 'poo.'" Result: incorrect, Purdue went on to the 3rd round.
Texas A&M over Florida State: "Aggies?  Well that's stupid.  Although Jim and Steve [my brothers] were Aggies [at UC Davis].  Wait, is this the Florida that does the 'chomp, chomp'?  [No, this is the tomahawk-ones.]  That tomahawk thing is annoying and pretentious.  I pick the non-Florida one.  I mean, what are they, hailing Hitler?" Result: incorrect, Florida State went on to the Sweet 16.
Notre Dame over Akron: "Notre Dame!  Yeah!  Catholic and Irish!  I don't know the other one, 'Zips' is pretty sick, dude." Result: correct

Southeast Round 2
Pittsburgh over UNC-Asheville: "Panthers, ooh, that's like a cougar." Result: correct
Butler over Old Dominion: "Monarchs?  Butterflies?  Gimme a break." Result: correct [Note: "Monarchs" actually refers to actual monarchs, not butterflies.]
Utah State over Kansas State: "No more wildcats.  Kansas has the Chiefs, so Utah it is!" Result: incorrect, Kansas State went on to the 3rd round. [Note: when I told her that the KC Chiefs play in Missouri, not Kansas, she said, "That's stupid.  Why did the NFL name them the 'Kansas City Chiefs' then?"]
Wisconsin over Belmont: "Didn't that horse die at the Belmont?  Anthony and Adria [friends] and my cousins went to Wisconsin. Result: correct [Note: I think she's thinking of Barbaro who was put down after breaking his leg at the Preakness in 2006.  Either way, impressive knowledge.]
Gonzaga over St. John's: "I really don't like St. John's because Angelina Jolie is the spokesperson.  And Justin Howard [friend]!  WCC-representation!" Result: correct [Note: I have no idea what the Angelina Jolie line means.]
UCLA over Michigan State: "U-C-L-A-fight-fight-fight!  I feel like if you've been to a game, you should root for them.  Unless they're a-holes.  Like Chargers fans.  Screw SDSU." Result: correct
Florida over UCSB: "Chomp-chomp! Santa Barbara is a part school.  Plus, Chris [Valente, a longtime friend of mine and UCSB alumnus] GTL's."  Result: correct

I will continue with the rest of Nicole's picks tomorrow.  She was a pedestrian 21-11 with this picks in the first round, but these things aren't won in the first round anyway.

Part 1: Results through the Round of 64
Part 2: Statistical Comparisons of Nicole's system vs. AP, RPI, seeds and Sagarin through Round of 32
Part 4: Nicole's Round of 32 through Championship picks
Part 5: Final Statistical Results (coming Thursday)
Tourney Bonus Coverage: The Jim Nantz-pun-o-meter game (coming soon)

NCAA Tourney 2011: Nicole's Crystal Ball (Part 2)

Since my wife first started filling out her own bracket two years ago, I have come to realize that while her system makes absolutely no sense, it works.  So this year, I decided to try and quantify why.

Categories Nicole Uses:

Better seeds 37-11

Best/Worst Conferences (listing only those with multiple bids)

• ACC 7-1 (3-0 in Round of 32)
• MWC 4-1 (2-0 in Round of 32)
• Colonial 4-2
• Big East 9-9 (2-5 in Round of 32)
• CUSA 0-2
• MAC 0-2

BCS Conferences vs. Non-BCS Conferences 18-8

Best/Worst States (listing only those with multiple bids)

• Florida 4-0
• Wisconsin 4-0
• North Carolina 5-1
• Alabama 0-2
• New Jersey 0-2
• Tennessee 0-4

Mascots

• Animals vs. People 11-7
• Cats vs. Dogs 3-2
• Wildcats 5-2
• Huskies 3-1
• Bulldogs 4-3
• Tigers 1-4
• Ancient Greeks (Trojans and Spartans) 0-3

Best/Worst Colors

• Red 14-9 (6-2 in Round of 32)
• Blue 33-28
• White 19-16
• Purple 3-3 (eliminated)
• Black 7-11
• Green 1-3 (eliminated)

Best/Worst Color Combinations

• Blue/Red 6-1 (3-0 in Round of 32)
• Blue/White 14-8 (6-1 in Round of 32)
• Orange/blue 4-3
• Single color 2-3
• Blue/Gold 6-7 (1-4 in Round of 32)
• Green/White 0-2
• Blue/Gray 0-2

Public vs. Private 9-5

East of the Mississippi vs. West 9-11

Union vs. Confederacy 8-10

Totals for various systems:

• Nicole’s Actual Picks 30-18 – 62.5%
• Better Regular Season Final RPI vs. Worse 33-15 – 68.8% (East 10-2, West 11-1, SW 4-8 and SE 8-4)
• Better Regular Season Final AP Ranking vs. Worse 30-16 – 65.2% (East 9-3, West 10-1, SW 4-8 and SE 7-4)
• Better Seed vs. Worse 36-12 – 75.0% (East 10-2, West 12-0, SW 4-8 and SE 10-2)
• Better Regular Season Final Sagarin rating vs. Worse 37-11 – 77.1% (East 10-2, West 12-0, SW 5-7 and SE 10-2)

*These results were not adjusted after each round; they reflect what the bracket would be like had it been picked this way before the Tournament.

Points of interest:

In all four of the more scientific systems just named, they would have 6-of-8 Elite Eight teams left (missing Pitt and Notre Dame), 3-of-4 Final Four teams left (missing Pitt), and both Finalists.  Nicole has 7-of-8 Elite Eight teams left (missing Notre Dame), 3-of-4 Final Four teams (missing Notre Dame), and one Finalist (missing Notre Dame).  So she did worse than all four heading into the Sweet 16, but they way points generally multiply in later rounds, she is actual in a far better position than all four.

In the 11 games whose results featured a worse seed winning, one was a 9 beating an 8, one was a 5 beating a 4, and four others featured “upset” wins by major national programs (Florida State, Gonzaga and Marquette twice) – hardly “Cinderella” material.  That means through 48 games, only five game were truly unforeseeable upsets: 11 VCU over 6 Georgetown, 12 Richmond over 5 Vanderbilt, 13 Morehead State over 4 Louisville (which Nicole picked), 11 VCU over 3 Purdue, and 8 Butler over 1 Pittsburgh.  We all should have seen the other 89% coming.

NCAA Tourney 2011: Nicole's Crystal Ball (Part 1)

Making picks for the NCAA men's basketball tournament has basically become a sport in and of itself.  National media outlets reserve year-round coverage for "bracketology," seemingly anyone who has ever watched a game of college basketball now writes a blog about who got robbed and how to make your bracket, and likely more people join tourney bracket groups than vote for president.  Speaking of which, the President now does an annual bracket special on ESPN and he actually went 15-1 on day 4 on Friday.

For the last two years, I have written about my wife's mystifyingly successful system for picking (she's beating me again).  It is one part basketball knowledge, 4 parts mascot death-match, 2 parts travel log, 2 parts color war, 1 part class-warfare.  But it works.  In a vain attempt to quantify this system, I humbly submit the following statistics for your consideration.  Refer to them at your own risk when filling out your bracket next March.

These statistics are from all 36 games through the first two rounds of the 2011 men's tournament (unless noted otherwise).  All results more than 1 game above or below .500 are listed.

Basketball Knowledge: Seeds, Rankings and Conferences
Better seeds went 25-7 (not including 1st round games which are between teams ranked the same)
AP Top 25 teams went 19-6 (one loss was to another Top-25 team)
ACC: 4-1
Big Ten: 5-2
Colonial: 3-1
Pac 10: 3-1
Big East: 7-4
C-USA: 0-2
Mid-Atlantic: 0-2

Mascot Death-Match
Animals: 25-20  People 9-11
Indians: 3-0  Ancient Greeks 0-3
Birds: 5-4  Cats 7-6  Dogs: 5-5
Tigers: 1-4 (0-4 in Round 2)  Wildcats: 3-1  Bulldogs: 3-2  Terriers 0-2

Travel Log: State vs. State Comparison
Florida: 2-0
Kansas: 2-0
Washington: 2-0
Indiana: 3-1
Virginia: 4-2
Alabama 0-2 (both in Round 1)
Tennessee 0-4

Color War*
Blue: 21-17
Red: 8-7
Gold: 1-3 in Round 1, 5-3 in Round 2
Orange: 2-0 in Round 1, 4-5 in Round 2
Black: 5-9
Blue/Yellow: 2-0
Blue/Red: 3-1
Blue/Gold: 5-3
Black/Gold: 3-5
Blue/Gray: 0-2
Green/White: 0-2
3 Color Schools: 3-5

*Colors are taken from schools' officially listed colors.  Shades of colors went into primary colors in most cases (crimson and cardinal are both just "red" here), unless there were enough of the alternate color to make it worth distinguishing it as its own (gold stands alone from yellow).

Class Warfare
Private schools: 8-15
Public schools: 28-21
Catholic schools: 3-5

So while all these results are preliminary and need a larger sample (i.e.: the rest of the tournament) before we can call any of it infallible and scientifically proven, some working hypotheses:

God is not a basketball fan or the Catholic schools would be doing better.  For the record, Mormons were 1-1.
Alabama and Tennessee schools should stop playing basketball and focus on other endeavors.
Utah State got the biggest screw-job of the year by earning a 12-seed and having to play against a 5-seed  ranked worse than them in the AP poll (USU: 19, Kansas St. 21)
Stricter private school academic standards seem to be outweighing their ability to allegedly bend admission rules to bring in ball players.
Black may be cool, but wear it and you lose.
"Blue" chip recruits apparently take that title to heart when choosing which jersey they'll wear.
Among pets, birds are doing slightly better than cats, with dogs bringing up the rear.  But it's a difference of only percentage points.
Wildcats are much better than Tigers.
The Big East lived up to the hype for the most part (but their 11 bids does nothing more than prove than expansion of the tournament was unnecessary - if you are 11th in your own league, do you really deserve a chance to play for a national title?)
VCU belonged.

The NCAA Tournament: An Egalitarian Wonderland!

Of all of the NCAA's championship events, I think it is pretty safe to say the the men's basketball tournament is the best.  It is no more or less fair than all the other sports' tournaments; it is right on par with them.  But what takes it over the top is, of course, the television coverage and massive fan appeal (and you can have a chicken vs. egg argument between those two).  And today they made the tournament even better.  They expanded to 68 teams and this is a look at the arguments for and against the expansion and why the NCAA proved its superior administrative wisdom, once again.

"Why not 96 teams?  Erase the bubble, reward 31 more teams, make 31 more games-worth the money."
It's unecessary.  Who would those extra 31 teams be?  All the conferences already have automatic bids, so they'd all be at large schools.  Assuming that 15 or 16 of the auto-bid schools are not among the 96 best in the country, that still means that around the top 80 teams in the country would get invites.  Do we really need to see if the 76th best team deserves a national championship?  I am all for Cindarellas, but don't the schools that prove their worth all year deserve better than to have 60-70 sub-par teams taking shots at them?  And wouldn't there still be a bubble, but it would just include much crappier teams?  We'd be very likely to see entire conferences get bids, with multiple sub-.500 teams. 

"Then why expand at all?"
Expansion is necessary because every year there are 2-3 schools that likely deserved an invitation but were left out.  This will eliminate that 66th-team-bubble and allow all the qualified teams a chance to play.  Not to mention that it rewards three more teams and provides 3 more games-worth of revenue.

"Isn't that that answer the exact same as the question that you answered 'unnecessary' to for a 96 team expansion?"
No, that was 96.  This is 68.  They're different numbers.  Plus, the 80th best team in the country doesn't have a prayer and doesn't belong.

"I agree that the 80th best team doesn't belong.  But does the 50th really belong?  Likely a 13 or 14 seed, do they deserve a chance and are they genuine contenders?  A 12-seed, Missouri 2002, is the worst seed to even even make the Elite 8, so do we really need more 13+ calibre teams?"
Yes.  There is no downside to allowing more teams to compete, be they are top 10 schools or top 50 (but let's not get carried away and allow the top 80).  Plus, the Tournament has a long history of periodic expansion and of having additional play-in games.  Since 1950, this will be the 10th expansion, and the fourth tournament make-up that included play-in games. 

As you said earlier, 'I am all for Cindarellas, but don't the schools that prove their worth all year deserve better than to have 60-70 sub-par teams taking shots at them?'  Doesn't the same already ring true currently with 40-50 sub-par teams?  So why allow three more in?  Clearly it isn't for fairness but money...so again, why didn't you just expand to 200 teams?
Generally all the university presidents, conference commissioners, and NCAA and television executives want to expand exponentially.  Fans don't.  And we feel it is important to listen to the fans.  Whether in includes 65, 68, or 96 teams, the tournament is fair, so why not keep the fans happy.  After all, they pay their hard earned money to keep us afloat.

So basically, even though no one watches the current play-in game, you can make more money by having 3 more.  And those three games don't affect the integrity of the title, so you feel that it is reasonable to cash in, give more kids a shot at the title, and appease your fanbase.  I think I am alright with that.
Good.  I'm glad we understand each other. 

In other words, it can't hurt anything so the 66th, 67th and 68th best basketball teams in the country deserve a chance to play for the title, but the 3rd best football team can kiss your ass.
No comment.

Memphis Attempts To Rebuild The Alamo With Bricks

Why does everyone from Jim Rome to NBCSports.com say that this NCAA Tournament was a boring letdown? Rome opened his show Tuesday by saying thank God the championship game was so good because this tournament stunk.

Perhaps I was watching a different Tournament. I seem to recall an opening round site in Tampa that saw two 12-seeds and two 13-seeds pull upsets. I am pretty sure a 10-seed was a very make-able shot away from knocking off the eventual champion in the Elite 8. Weren't there a good 5-10 buzzer-beaters in the first weekend alone? Yes, there were a lot of blowouts (a LOT of blowouts) in the second weekend, but wasn't this the first time in history that the top seeds all held serve and we got to see the absolute best of the best battle it out for the title? Didn't North Carolina come from 150 points down to take Kansas to the wire in the Final Four? Didn't Memphis shock everyone by not getting shocked out early like we all expected? Wasn't Stephen Curry's mom hot (not the mention the Texas, UCLA and Oregon cheerleaders).

The Lopez Sisters (oops, Lopez Brothers) were great. Augustine, Kevin Love's outlet passes and facial hair were epic, Memphis made their free throws right up until it mattered, three of the tallest four teams in history were in the Dance. Gonzaga vs. Davidson was spectacular. On the first Saturday morning, three games ended within 5 minutes of one another and all went down to the wire (thank God for the free viewing on CBS' website!). UConn choked (thank you USD!). Georgetown choked. Duke choked. Clemson and Vandy choked. OJ Mayo choked. Wisconsin almost shut out two teams. Marquette and Oregon battled it out for worst uniforms in Tourney history.

It was a fantastic Tournament punctuated with a wildly entertaining, though badly played Championship game. This could easily have been the worst final 2 minutes of a Championship game in history, which is exactly why it was so awesome.

For months, John Calipari has told us his kids would make their free throws when it counted. Texas tried to force them to make them, but the game was already 15 points by then. But with 2:12 to go in the Championship, Memphis held a 9-point lead, and Kansas went into hack-a-Tiger mode, and it worked to perfection. Memphis' best free throw shooters (and I use "best" liberally) missed shot after shot. Memphis should have lost it for missing so many free throws. Memphis should have lost it when Douglas-Roberts slammed the ball down, but no technical foul was called. Memphis should have lost it when they blew an inbounds play and Chalmers, channeling Jason Williams, stole it and threw it over his head as he flew out of bounds, then recovered and buried a 3. Memphis should have lost it when they let Kansas get a 3-point shot off at the end. Rose should have just tackled Chalmers before the shot and given two free throws. Memphis should have lost it when Calipari didn't call timeouts before Kansas last regulation possession or before Memphis'. Memphis should have lost it when Dorsey fouled out on a hand-check 30 feet from the hoop.

Kansas should have lost the game when they failed to box out and Memphis got a rebound on a missed free throw with a minute to go. Kansas should have lost the game when they got a rebound on a missed free throw and the kid sprinted down into double coverage and got a layup blocked, down two points with :20 to go. Kansas should have lost it for the karma of having Roy Williams wear a Kansas shirt (what was he thinking?). Kansas should have had to forfeit the game when Jim Nance said, "Rock chalk Championship," as time expired (that was the gem he had been sitting on?).

In the end Kansas won because they did less to blow it, and Chalmers made two spectacular plays in the last 30-seconds. But as sloppy as it was, it was awesome! And it proved one of the great maxims in sports is correct: You have to make your free throws.

James Worthy said after the game (and after "One Shining Moment") that this shows that you need to make 5 or 6 in a row before you can leave practice. 5 or 6!? I'd say 20 at least.

I generally block the memories of my NCAA Tourney picks because they generally don't go very well, but I am going on record as saying that I have now picked the last one consecutive champions. Between that streak and USD returning every member of this year's team and adding some Brazilian dude who supposedly is basically Jaime Chitwood, 2009 is my year, baby.

The Key To Marital Bliss: Pink Sports Gear

From the Bowl Season to the NBA Finals, it is like a sports-hurricane. There is no time to rest or go on vacation without missing some seemingly monumental game.

First are the Bowls, which are generally overblown, annoying, corporation celebrations that include generally mediocre football since the teams haven't played in a month. But every year there is some miraculous play (or 3 if you are Boise State), upset (Boise State), or just well played, solid games, and those are what we remember in the long run anyway.

This leads directly into the NFL playoffs which are fantastic no matter who is playing. This of course brings the Super Bowl, which is always good for a party, even if the game is not up to this year's high calibre. Then there's the always amazing Pro Bowl. Just kidding.

As football's stranglehold over the American sports fans' attention gives way, the NBA decides to become interesting. The first 50 games of the NBA season are a complete waste, but the last 30 heat up as teams either start jockeying for either playoff positioning or Lottery balls. Either way, March and April are interesting for every team. Basketball is also good for dramatic story lines, like the fact that right now, the Lakers are the 3-seed and the Suns are the 6. Kobe vs. Shaq in the first round, and a rematch of the series that Kobe seemingly quit in to prove that they couldn't win without him. Nice.

Simultaneously on Versus, the NHL races heat up, but no one notices. Did you know the San Jose Sharks finished the season 18-0-2 in their last 20 games? It's not the 2007 Rockies, but that is how you go into the playoffs hot!

In the midst of the NBA and NHL stretch runs, Baseball opens its spring season and then the regular season with much fanfare (unless it happens in Japan: then no one notices). Baseball takes the driver's seat for about a week and half, just long enough for every city to get its home opener, then we all look back at hoops and hockey again.

Also overlapping with the NBA's, NHL's stretch runs, and MLB's opening is the NCAA tournament which is only the best sporting event in American sports. It doesn't involve only 8 or 16 of the 30 biggest markets in the country. Everyone is involved. Cities of less than 10,000 people see their hometown college play for it all. Games aren't just played in New York and LA (in fact, none were this year)...they're played in Spokane and Dayton. Sure, only 6-8 teams really have a chance to win it all, but in what other arena is "just being nominated" really an honor like it is for small programs who make the Dance?

The Tourney and Baseball's Opening Weekend end just in time for the NHL playoffs, which is the best sporting event in American sports that no one watches. I don't know if it is Gary Thorne's voice or just the incredible and ceaseless full speed hitting and skating, but there in nothing better than playoff hockey, when annually at least one goalie becomes superhuman and changes the sport.

The NBA playoffs are exciting too, but you get the sense that the first 3-quarters of every game are a warm-up for the fourth quarter. The series are too long, the gaps between games are too long, Bill Walton sucks, and the referees don't call the games fairly. But it is still must-see TV somehow. Damn you David Stern.

There is a little break for sports fans to go on vacation, but while on vacation, you realize that MLB is getting good, the College World Series is on, the Tour de France is on, Tennis and Golf are in Grand Slam/Major season, the Belmont Stakes may or may not mean something this year, the NFL is heading back to camp soon, and oh yeah, it's an Olympic year.

I think that Sports is a test from God to see how dedicated to staying married we all are. Fortunately, my bride has fallen in love with the Tourney and the NFL postseason, she was always a hockey fan, and I tricked her into liking baseball by buying her a pink Mets hat. Take that, God!

March Naptime Is Here

Whatever happened to the Tourney being interesting?

The opening weekend was pretty good - a few good upsets and lots of tight games, especially in the second round. Then this weekend has been blowout after blowout, with higher seeds winning every game but Davidson's Sweet 16 game. Memphis took the mystery out of this morning's game in the first five minutes, and there is pretty good reason to think that Kansas will romp over Davidson (although lots of teams thought they were going to romp on Davidson).

So we are all set for the first ever all-1 seed Final Four which should provide some great games. I hope. If Howland can't find a way to keep Memphis from getting a lead, all the crappy foul shooting in the world won't keep the Bruins in the game. And if Memphis shoots free throws like they shot against Texas - goodnight Tournament. Kansas and North Carolina could be an absolute classic.

Is anyone else tired of Calipari saying his 1-seed, 1-loss, formerly #1 nationally ranked team is under-appreciated? I know he is making all these "they're mentally tough; their mechanics are good" comments so his kids will start to believe it is true. But why do I have to hear it all the time?

And why do I have to hear all the TV and radio experts talk about what a lights-out shooter and phenomenal athlete and pure scorer Stephen Curry is. They all say he may be the best sophomore in the country and should be in the conversation for the Wooden Award. They say Davidson is a true threat to the NCAA's royalty. They say all this as though anyone who thinks otherwise is a slack-jawed moron.

Where were these experts two weeks ago? Where were they when Davidson (a top 25 team) drew a 10-seed? I don't remember a single person saying they had been robbed and were underrated. I remember people saying they'd beat Gonzaga - they were a sexy first round upset pick. But what about the second round? Or third? Everyone talks about them like they always believed, but most of these people couldn't have named what state they're from, let alone who their star player was.

Not that I saw this coming either, but why do the experts always have to pretend to be experts? When will one of them go on TV and say, "I don't know where they came from, and I don't know how they're doing it."

UCLA vs. Western Kentucky

The second week of the Tourney strikes again. UCLA was up by 21 at half over the last of the Cinderellas - Western Kentucky - before scraping together a surprising close win.

Davidson can't be considered a Cinderella because although they have pulled off two upsets, they were nationally ranked entering the Tournament. Anyone who didn't see this coming, or at least didn't see the Gonzaga win coming, should have.

And Villanova plays in the Big East which eliminates them from the Cinderella ranks, as far as I am concerned.

While it is too bad to see Brazelton and Co. go, I was glad this game was not close early on because I thought there was no way CBS would air the second half of it. That meant we would get to watch the other game which had Jay Bilas and Dick Enberg announcing, rather than Vern Lundquist and Bill Raftery. Trading Lundquist (who only blows by association) and Raftery (who is basically Vic the Brick Jacobs without the certifiable insanity and awkward and possibly dangerous man-crush on Kobe Bryant) for Bilas and Enberg (who are both charming, eloquent and intelligent) is like trading Kwame Brown for Pau Gasol.

Fantasy sports makes us root for these types of strange things sometimes. "Come on Mariano - no earned runs, but blow the save anyway." But rooting for strange occurrences so you get to listen to a different announcing crew is an NCAA Tournament staple.

UCLA's defense truly is spectacular when they are on. I don't know the stats at halftime but a few minutes to go in the first half, UCLA was up 30-15 and Western Kentucky was shooting 4 for 22. I swear they had not taken a single shot without a hand in their faces. Between that, Love's outlet passes and magical nose for lose balls, and Daren "the One-Man Press Break" Collison, I don't see UCLA losing. Yes, they have struggled in their three wins, but they just get it done.

Western Kentucky's Brazelton is a spectacular player won't likely get any NBA looks, but he is brutal. He single-handedly carried them in their opening round upset of Drake. Then he got USD's Brandon Johnson and the great Darren Collison to foul out trying to keep up with him. He doesn't take bad shots, he doesn't play out of control, and as John Wooden would appreciate, he plays fast but not in a hurry.

I was a little torn at halftime because MTV-HD was airing the U2: Rattle and Hum documentary. I admit I turned off UCLA long enough to watch "Bad" with the Stones' "Sympathy for the Devil" mixed in. But that will be on again, and thus can't compete with live sports once they came back from halftime.

Speaking of live sports, I got to watch the Mets take the Braves to the woodshed this morning on ESPN. It was my first Mets game of the year. They played about 3 starters (No Reyes, Castillo, Wright, Delgago, Alou, or Beltran) and crushed the Braves starting 8. That made me happy.

I was set to do an American League season breakdown today, but I realized I don't really care about the American league. I will get to it before the North American portion of the season starts.

I was very surprised that CBS stuck with the UCLA-WKU game after halftime since it seemed like a blowout and the other game was close. Boy, did that decision turn out to be prescient! WKU crawled back in and trailed by just 4, fouled Collison out and got four fouls on Shipp and Westbrook, why Louisville wound up crushing Tennessee.

Nonetheless, when they returned with that 21-point UCLA game, I wonder in how many households did the following conversation took place:
Her: This is over. Come on, turn on the figure skating championships.
Him: There is another game. They'll switch.
Her: We watched like 50 games last weekend.
Him: It's the Tournament! Plus, how many world championships do they have in figure skating?