Wednesday, April 6, 2011

NCAA Tourney 2011: Nicole's Crystal Ball (Part 4)

Third Round
Ohio State over George Mason: "Ooh, I really like the masons.  1 vs. 8 though.  Fat guy vs. Free Masons.  Fat people make me feel better."  Result: correct [Note: The "fat guy" is the Buckeye mascot.]
Clemson over Princeton: "Tigers vs. Tigers! But Clementines are cute and yummy." Result: incorrect, both teams had lost in the 2nd round.
Syracuse over Xavier: "Professor X vs. Jeff.  6 vs. 3.  Jeff gets a little help; let's have him go one more." Result: incorrect, Syracuse lost to Marquette in this game. [Note: Jeff is a former co-worker, Jeff Suss.]
North Carolina over Georgia: "Upsetting UNC?  I don't like Peaches that much." Result: correct [Note: "Peaches" is a friend, Andy Etters, who is from Georgia.]
Duke over Michigan: "Ooh, Wolverines...but it's 1 vs. 8.  Who did you pick? [Duke]  That dude coaches the Olympics.  Yes to Duke." Result: correct
Arizona over Texas: "[In Will Farrell's George W. Bush voice:] 'Don't mess with Texas.'  Wildcat vs. a longhorn.  That's an interesting fight.  The wildcat is quicker; wildcats would win.  We've gotta start getting more serious about this mascot thing." Result: correct
Connecticut over Missouri: "Connecticut!  It's our street!  And you were born there.  Ooh, that means first boyfriend vs. second.  But I married the second one.  Boom!" Result: correct
San Diego State over Penn State: "San Diego is a whale's vagina.  Look it up; it's in the Geneva Convention." Result: correct [Note: These are paraphrases of two different lines from two different Will Farrell movies.  Between these, the Texas line and her obsession with cougars because of Talladega Nights, she's basing most of her picks on his comedy in one way or another.] 
Kansas over Illinois: "1 vs. 9.  1 always goes at least two rounds." Result: correct
Vanderbilt over Morehead State: "V." Result: incorrect, Vanderbilt had lost in the second round.
Georgetown over St. Peter's: "Aren't they just bulldogs with spikey collars?  Do that one." Result: incorrect, both teams had lost in the second round.
Notre Dame over Texas A&M: "Notre Dame!" Result: incorrect, Notre Dame lost of Florida State in this game.
Pittsburgh over Butler: "Panther is close to cougar.  Although Pittsburgh does have an NFL team.  [I told her that Butler is near Indianapolis, which also has an NFL team.]  Both have NFL teams, but a cougar would kill a bulldog." Result: incorrect, Butler won this game.
Wisconsin over Utah State: "Double-U beats U." Result: correct
BYU over Gonzaga: "Cougs! [As Farrell's Ricky Bobby:] 'How can I control my heartbeat!?'" Result: correct
UCLA over Florida: "Ooh, that's a tough one.  Go Sharks, but a gator vs. a bear?  Now that would be awesome.  [As Jim Halpert:] 'What kind of bear is best?'  Bear is best." Result: incorrect, Florida won this game. [She said "Go Sharks" because the Florida fans do the same arm-movement-chomp as San Jose Sharks fans.]
(Results: 9-7 but with seven-of-eight elite eight teams left, three-of-four final four, one finalist, and her champion)

Sweet Sixteen
Ohio State over Clemson: "Oranges can't beat fat people.  The fat people would just eat them." Result: incorrect, Kentucky won this game.
North Carolina over Syracuse: "We already helped Jeff for two rounds.  And I like blue." Result: correct
Duke over Arizona: [As Farrell in Old School:] "You're my boy, Blue!" Result: incorrect, Arizona won this game.
Connecticut over San Diego State: "Whoa, this is interesting.  Alright, let's play this out.  Aztecs vs. Huskies.  San Diego vs. Connecticut so where we met vs. where you were born.  San Diego has an NFL team that I don't like.  Wait, is this 'UConn'?  I love UConn!"  Result: correct
Kansas over Vanderbilt: "Jayhawk is like an Indian, right? [It's a bird.] Oh.  Well a Commodore is like a pirate.  And that guy from Pirates was a total sissy, so Kansas is more legit.  More American.  And they're the 1-seed." Result: correct [Note: I assume the guy from Pirates is Johnny Depp.]
Notre Dame over Georgetown: "Both Catholics, oh shoot.  The numbers are 2 and 6.  And I've been to Notre Dame.  [We've been to Georgetown, too.]  Yeah, but I was in Notre Dame's gym.  And I was the mascot there.  [Actually, I was the mascot there.  You were a cheerleader.]  Shut up.  And don't write that.  It's St. Patrick's Day; Irish win." Result: incorrect, VCU beat Florida State in this game. [Note: All of that happened in the 2000 Women's NCAA Tournament when USD played at Notre Dame in the first round.  Nicole was our school's mascot but stepped in for an ill cheerleader for that game and I went as the mascot so I could go to the game for free during spring break.  But I'm gonna be in big trouble when she sees I wrote that.]
Wisconsin over Pittsburgh: "Cougars vs. Beavers?  Please.  [Actually it's Panthers and Badgers.]  Whatever.  I hate Pittsburgh; the Steelers suck and that guy needs a haircut.  And my cousin, Blake, went to Wisconsin and he needs good news." Result: incorrect, Butler won this game.  [Note: I'm not sure the guy who needs a haircut is, but I assume Troy Polamalu.  Blake was in a terrible car accident a few months ago and is recovering.]
BYU over UCLA: "Oh man, a coug vs. a bear!  Cougs.  I have to be consistent." Result: incorrect, Florida won this game. [Note: Consistent with what?  They're the only cougars in the tournament.]
(Results: 3-5, with one Final Four team, one finalist and her champion left)

Elite Eight
Ohio State over North Carolina: "What city is Ohio State in? [Columbus] I do like Christopher Columbus. But I like UNC's blue.  But our frisbee team is Flip Cup and we're red.  They're both public.  I like Duke better than Carolina." Result: incorrect, Kentucky won this game.
Connecticut over Duke: "Whoa.  That's hard.  I love Duke.  And UConn's blue too.  And it's Connecticut.  1 vs. 3.  That's close.  What did you pick? [Duke] But you're from there and we live on it.  Blue Devils and Huskies.  I picked Duke last year, so not Duke again." Result: correct
Notre Dame over Kansas: "Notre Dame." Result: incorrect, VCU won this game.
BYU over Wisconsin: "Cougs." Result: incorrect, Butler beat Florida in this game.
(Results: 1-3, with one finalist and her champion still left)

Final Four
Connecticut over Ohio State: [Long pause while considering this one closely.] "UConn has a cooler name.  And we live on Connecticut Street, and you were born there.  And all Ohio has going for them is flip cup and fat people." Result: correct
Notre Dame over BYU: "Catholics vs. Mormons.  Blowout!" Result: incorrect, Butler beat VCU in this game.
(Results: 1-1, with her champion still left)

Championship Game
Connecticut over Notre Dame: "I really like Notre Dame, but I just can't do it.  The NFL really pissed me off.  So UConn." Result: correct [Note: While Notre Dame is not in an NFL city, it is in Indiana, home of the Colts.]

Tie-Breaker: Championship Score
"Connecticut will get 78 because you were born there in that year.  And Notre Dame will get 73 because 7 and 3 are the holy numbers.  7 sins and the Trinity!  So 78-73."

Some new patterns have emerged.  Any vague connection to any Will Farrell movie or line is usually worth one or two picks.  This used to just be for Talladega Nights, but it seems to now be all of them.  
Notre Dame is her favorite school, for sure.  Second is Duke and she obviously is starting to like Connecticut a lot too.


Part 5: Final Statistical Results (coming Thursday)
Tourney Bonus Coverage: The Jim Nantz-pun-o-meter game (coming soon)

Tuesday, April 5, 2011

NCAA Tourney 2011: Nicole's Crystal Ball (Part 3)

The dust has settled and Nicole won both bracket contests she entered again this year.  So whether it makes any sense or not, we have to allow for the fact that whatever she is doing works.  How well?  She ranked in the 98th percentile nationally on Yahoo! and approximately 1.1 million people were entered there.  So pretty well.

As you will see from her picks and reasoning below, and as I've written before, she is partial to cougars (or similar), the color blue, states/schools she likes or has some connection to, schools that start with "V", single-word names, intimidating mascots, private/Catholic schools, and, if all else fails, better seeds.  She also said this year that she was against schools in NFL cities because of the lockout (actually it was because she got me the Sunday Ticket for Christmas and I may not get to enjoy it because of the lockout).  She also said that she no longer favors schools from the South or around New Orleans because the Saints won the Super Bowl.

As always, I told her the schools, seeds and mascots.  Sometimes she asked for more information like colors, cities and public/private.  Sometimes she knew that already.  Believe it or not, no alcohol was consumed prior to picking, but it was really late at night.

East Round 2
Ohio State over UTSA: "Aren't the Buckeyes that fat guy? But I don't want to look stupid, so I pick the far people.  They'll motivate me to lose weight." Result: correct
George Mason over Villanova: "Tough because it's a V school.  But National Treasure had the Masons and Nicholas Cage needs a break. Result: correct
Clemson over West Virginia: "Clementine oranges: cute name though Tigers are way better." Result: incorrect, West Virginia went on to the 3rd round.
Princeton over Kentucky: "Wildcats vs. Tiger is a great battle.  Let's do Princeton; I really like them.  And KFC sucks." Result: incorrect, Kentucky went on to the Final Four. [Note: Nicole knows nothing about Princeton basketball and presumably likes them because they're smart kids.]
Xavier over Marquette: "Isn't 'Xavier' spelled with an 'x'?  That guy from X-Men is pretty bad-ass.  That would be a huge word on Words with Friends [like scrabble]." Result: incorrect, Marquette went on to the Sweet 16.
Syracuse over Indiana State: "Didn't Syracuse win last year? [No]  Jeff [Suss, a former colleague] went there and he has to move to Portland.  Orangemen is a really cool mascot, like my Clementines!  Sycamores is lame dude.  Trees?" Result: correct [Note: When I told her that Larry Bird went to Indiana State, she said, "Bird is overrated."]
Georgia over Washington: "Peaches [Andy Etters, a former ultimate teammate] is from Georgia.  Do they have the NFL? [They both do.]  Oh man, the Seahawks is Pete Carroll.  Bulldogs vs. Huskies...hmm...that's a tough one.  I really don't like Carroll." Result: incorrect, Washington went on to the 3rd round.
North Carolina over Long Island: "Long Island is barely even a state. [In fact, it's not one.] I know UNC is good and plus, they match USD's colors." Result: correct

West Round 2
Duke over Hampton: "The Hamptons suck.  The Hamptons is like wannabe-Malibu.  It's all rocks.  Stupid." Result: correct [Note: She's never been to the Hamptons and I think she's thinking of Cape Cod.]
Michigan over Tennessee: "Right off the bat, I was thinking Wolverines because we already have a Xavier.  That would be cool.  Plus, "Volunteer"?  That's really your mascot?  Does a Wolverine have claws?  Wait, is it a fictional character? [She forgets that it's a real animal every year.] I feel like Wolverines is better than Cougars." Result: incorrect, Michigan went on to the 3rd round.  [Note: This Wolverines vs. Cougars thing really floored me.  Cougar-superiority has been at the core of her entire system for years.  I though she was doomed after this.]
Arizona over Memphis: "Wildcats are pretty sissy, right...vs. a tiger?  David Levin [co-worker] went to Arizona and I promised him one.  He made me feel welcome at work." Result: correct
Texas over Oakland: "Isn't that the Texas where Wendy went?  Oakland here sucks.  But I do work there.  Oh, Wendy.  Screw her!  She moved away from us.  What's the other team's number? [13 vs. 4].  No chance.  Plus, I like Wendy. [Note: We actually moved away almost a year before Wendy did, but she did move further.]
Missouri over Cincinnati: "Bearcats?  That name is just too long.  But I had an old boyfriend that went to Mizzou.  How can I take that school seriously?  How do you even spell Cincinnati?  Oh!  The Bengals!  F those guys." Result: incorrect, Cincinnati went on to the 3rd round.
Connecticut over Bucknell: "Buck 'em off the list!" Result: correct [Note: she was extremely proud of this pun.  Jim Nantz would have been, as well.]
Penn State over Temple: "Stupidest mascots ever. [I explained that a Nittany Lion is a local mountain lion.] You have a Penn State shirts, right?  And 'Owl'?  Seriously?" Result: incorrect, Temple went on to the 3rd round.
San Diego State over Northern Colorado: "SDSU is a 2?  Northern Colorado...too many words ["San Diego State" has more words] Both have NFL teams, so it's a tie.  Go with the numbers [seeds]." Result: correct

Southwest Round 2
Kansas over Boston: "Terriers?  Like the dog?  Those are kick-dogs." Result: correct [A kick-dog is apparently a dog small enough to punt.]
Illinois over UNLV: "How can you even take a school seriously from Las Vegas?" Result: correct
Vanderbilt over Richmond: "Spiders?  Jeff [Donlevy, my brother-in-law] went to Vandy and it's a "V" school.  And he let us stay at their house for a week over Christmas.  And he gave us Dom Perignon at New Years!" Result: incorrect, Richmond went on to the Sweet 16.
Morehead State over Louisville: "I have a hard time taking that one seriously because it sounds like Louis Vuitton.  Morehead is funny.  Go with the funny one." Result: correct [Note: It's moment like this where you realize her genius.  She thinks sounding like a designer disqualifies you from winning, but a penis joke makes you win.]
Georgetown over Virginia Commonwealth: "Too many words." Result: incorrect, VCU went on to the Final Four.
St. Peter's over Purdue: "I like St. Peter's Basilica.  And it's Catholic and private.  Is the other one Catholic?  [No]  Both mascots are kinda lame.  14 over 3...that's impossible.  But 'Purdue' sounds like 'poo.'" Result: incorrect, Purdue went on to the 3rd round.
Texas A&M over Florida State: "Aggies?  Well that's stupid.  Although Jim and Steve [my brothers] were Aggies [at UC Davis].  Wait, is this the Florida that does the 'chomp, chomp'?  [No, this is the tomahawk-ones.]  That tomahawk thing is annoying and pretentious.  I pick the non-Florida one.  I mean, what are they, hailing Hitler?" Result: incorrect, Florida State went on to the Sweet 16.
Notre Dame over Akron: "Notre Dame!  Yeah!  Catholic and Irish!  I don't know the other one, 'Zips' is pretty sick, dude." Result: correct

Southeast Round 2
Pittsburgh over UNC-Asheville: "Panthers, ooh, that's like a cougar." Result: correct
Butler over Old Dominion: "Monarchs?  Butterflies?  Gimme a break." Result: correct [Note: "Monarchs" actually refers to actual monarchs, not butterflies.]
Utah State over Kansas State: "No more wildcats.  Kansas has the Chiefs, so Utah it is!" Result: incorrect, Kansas State went on to the 3rd round. [Note: when I told her that the KC Chiefs play in Missouri, not Kansas, she said, "That's stupid.  Why did the NFL name them the 'Kansas City Chiefs' then?"]
Wisconsin over Belmont: "Didn't that horse die at the Belmont?  Anthony and Adria [friends] and my cousins went to Wisconsin. Result: correct [Note: I think she's thinking of Barbaro who was put down after breaking his leg at the Preakness in 2006.  Either way, impressive knowledge.]
Gonzaga over St. John's: "I really don't like St. John's because Angelina Jolie is the spokesperson.  And Justin Howard [friend]!  WCC-representation!" Result: correct [Note: I have no idea what the Angelina Jolie line means.]
UCLA over Michigan State: "U-C-L-A-fight-fight-fight!  I feel like if you've been to a game, you should root for them.  Unless they're a-holes.  Like Chargers fans.  Screw SDSU." Result: correct
Florida over UCSB: "Chomp-chomp! Santa Barbara is a part school.  Plus, Chris [Valente, a longtime friend of mine and UCSB alumnus] GTL's."  Result: correct

I will continue with the rest of Nicole's picks tomorrow.  She was a pedestrian 21-11 with this picks in the first round, but these things aren't won in the first round anyway.

Part 1: Results through the Round of 64
Part 2: Statistical Comparisons of Nicole's system vs. AP, RPI, seeds and Sagarin through Round of 32
Part 4: Nicole's Round of 32 through Championship picks
Part 5: Final Statistical Results (coming Thursday)
Tourney Bonus Coverage: The Jim Nantz-pun-o-meter game (coming soon)

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

NCAA Tourney 2011: Nicole's Crystal Ball (Part 2)

Since my wife first started filling out her own bracket two years ago, I have come to realize that while her system makes absolutely no sense, it works.  So this year, I decided to try and quantify why.

Categories Nicole Uses:
Better seeds 37-11
Best/Worst Conferences (listing only those with multiple bids)
  • ACC 7-1 (3-0 in Round of 32)
  • MWC 4-1 (2-0 in Round of 32)
  • Colonial 4-2
  • Big East 9-9 (2-5 in Round of 32)
  • CUSA 0-2
  • MAC 0-2
BCS Conferences vs. Non-BCS Conferences 18-8

Best/Worst States (listing only those with multiple bids)
  • Florida 4-0
  • Wisconsin 4-0
  • North Carolina 5-1
  • Alabama 0-2
  • New Jersey 0-2
  • Tennessee 0-4
Mascots
  • Animals vs. People 11-7
  • Cats vs. Dogs 3-2
  • Wildcats 5-2
  • Huskies 3-1
  • Bulldogs 4-3
  • Tigers 1-4
  • Ancient Greeks (Trojans and Spartans) 0-3
Best/Worst Colors
  • Red 14-9 (6-2 in Round of 32)
  • Blue 33-28
  • White 19-16
  • Purple 3-3 (eliminated)
  • Black 7-11
  • Green 1-3 (eliminated)
Best/Worst Color Combinations
  • Blue/Red 6-1 (3-0 in Round of 32)
  • Blue/White 14-8 (6-1 in Round of 32)
  • Orange/blue 4-3
  • Single color 2-3
  • Blue/Gold 6-7 (1-4 in Round of 32)
  • Green/White 0-2
  • Blue/Gray 0-2
Public vs. Private 9-5
East of the Mississippi vs. West 9-11
Union vs. Confederacy 8-10

Totals for various systems:
  • Nicole’s Actual Picks 30-18 – 62.5%
  • Better Regular Season Final RPI vs. Worse 33-15 – 68.8% (East 10-2, West 11-1, SW 4-8 and SE 8-4)
  • Better Regular Season Final AP Ranking vs. Worse 30-16 – 65.2% (East 9-3, West 10-1, SW 4-8 and SE 7-4)
  • Better Seed vs. Worse 36-12 – 75.0% (East 10-2, West 12-0, SW 4-8 and SE 10-2)
  • Better Regular Season Final Sagarin rating vs. Worse 37-11 – 77.1% (East 10-2, West 12-0, SW 5-7 and SE 10-2)
*These results were not adjusted after each round; they reflect what the bracket would be like had it been picked this way before the Tournament.

Points of interest:
In all four of the more scientific systems just named, they would have 6-of-8 Elite Eight teams left (missing Pitt and Notre Dame), 3-of-4 Final Four teams left (missing Pitt), and both Finalists.  Nicole has 7-of-8 Elite Eight teams left (missing Notre Dame), 3-of-4 Final Four teams (missing Notre Dame), and one Finalist (missing Notre Dame).  So she did worse than all four heading into the Sweet 16, but they way points generally multiply in later rounds, she is actual in a far better position than all four.

In the 11 games whose results featured a worse seed winning, one was a 9 beating an 8, one was a 5 beating a 4, and four others featured “upset” wins by major national programs (Florida State, Gonzaga and Marquette twice) – hardly “Cinderella” material.  That means through 48 games, only five game were truly unforeseeable upsets: 11 VCU over 6 Georgetown, 12 Richmond over 5 Vanderbilt, 13 Morehead State over 4 Louisville (which Nicole picked), 11 VCU over 3 Purdue, and 8 Butler over 1 Pittsburgh.  We all should have seen the other 89% coming.

Saturday, March 19, 2011

NCAA Tourney 2011: Nicole's Crystal Ball (Part 1)

Making picks for the NCAA men's basketball tournament has basically become a sport in and of itself.  National media outlets reserve year-round coverage for "bracketology," seemingly anyone who has ever watched a game of college basketball now writes a blog about who got robbed and how to make your bracket, and likely more people join tourney bracket groups than vote for president.  Speaking of which, the President now does an annual bracket special on ESPN and he actually went 15-1 on day 4 on Friday.

For the last two years, I have written about my wife's mystifyingly successful system for picking (she's beating me again).  It is one part basketball knowledge, 4 parts mascot death-match, 2 parts travel log, 2 parts color war, 1 part class-warfare.  But it works.  In a vain attempt to quantify this system, I humbly submit the following statistics for your consideration.  Refer to them at your own risk when filling out your bracket next March.

These statistics are from all 36 games through the first two rounds of the 2011 men's tournament (unless noted otherwise).  All results more than 1 game above or below .500 are listed.

Basketball Knowledge: Seeds, Rankings and Conferences
Better seeds went 25-7 (not including 1st round games which are between teams ranked the same)
AP Top 25 teams went 19-6 (one loss was to another Top-25 team)
ACC: 4-1
Big Ten: 5-2
Colonial: 3-1
Pac 10: 3-1
Big East: 7-4
C-USA: 0-2
Mid-Atlantic: 0-2

Mascot Death-Match
Animals: 25-20  People 9-11
Indians: 3-0  Ancient Greeks 0-3
Birds: 5-4  Cats 7-6  Dogs: 5-5
Tigers: 1-4 (0-4 in Round 2)  Wildcats: 3-1  Bulldogs: 3-2  Terriers 0-2

Travel Log: State vs. State Comparison
Florida: 2-0
Kansas: 2-0
Washington: 2-0
Indiana: 3-1
Virginia: 4-2
Alabama 0-2 (both in Round 1)
Tennessee 0-4

Color War*
Blue: 21-17
Red: 8-7
Gold: 1-3 in Round 1, 5-3 in Round 2
Orange: 2-0 in Round 1, 4-5 in Round 2
Black: 5-9
Blue/Yellow: 2-0
Blue/Red: 3-1
Blue/Gold: 5-3
Black/Gold: 3-5
Blue/Gray: 0-2
Green/White: 0-2
3 Color Schools: 3-5

*Colors are taken from schools' officially listed colors.  Shades of colors went into primary colors in most cases (crimson and cardinal are both just "red" here), unless there were enough of the alternate color to make it worth distinguishing it as its own (gold stands alone from yellow).

Class Warfare
Private schools: 8-15
Public schools: 28-21
Catholic schools: 3-5

So while all these results are preliminary and need a larger sample (i.e.: the rest of the tournament) before we can call any of it infallible and scientifically proven, some working hypotheses:

God is not a basketball fan or the Catholic schools would be doing better.  For the record, Mormons were 1-1.
Alabama and Tennessee schools should stop playing basketball and focus on other endeavors.
Utah State got the biggest screw-job of the year by earning a 12-seed and having to play against a 5-seed  ranked worse than them in the AP poll (USU: 19, Kansas St. 21)
Stricter private school academic standards seem to be outweighing their ability to allegedly bend admission rules to bring in ball players.
Black may be cool, but wear it and you lose.
"Blue" chip recruits apparently take that title to heart when choosing which jersey they'll wear.
Among pets, birds are doing slightly better than cats, with dogs bringing up the rear.  But it's a difference of only percentage points.
Wildcats are much better than Tigers.
The Big East lived up to the hype for the most part (but their 11 bids does nothing more than prove than expansion of the tournament was unnecessary - if you are 11th in your own league, do you really deserve a chance to play for a national title?)
VCU belonged.

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

The BCS Makes Its Case, And It's Not A Good One

The 2010-2011 Bowl season is now in the bag and we have a BCS Champion, though not an NCAA Champion.  The good news is that Auburn is probably the best team in the country and probably deserves the title.  Though I can't imagine there's anyone outside of Alabama not wondering what Stanford or TCU might do against the Tigers.  

It’s hard to blame the advertisers, school administrators, venues, corporate sponsors or bowl organizers for trying to make a buck while also figuring out a better way to determine a football national champion than we used to have.  And the BCS is better than its predecessor.  What I blame them for is settling for a system that neither maximizes how much money they could make, nor determines a champion in the best way possible.

A playoff would unquestionably be the fairest way to determine a champion.  We see it in every other sport and every other level of college football, and while the best team may not always win a tournament, a tournament winner is always the unquestioned champion.  No campaigning, no geographical or conference bias, no voting, everyone got a fair shot…the last man standing wins. 

The great irony behind the BCS’ motto, “Every game counts,” which also serves as their Twitter and Facebook handle, is that in reality, only one game counts.  But this is only one of the many glaring holes in the pro-BCS argument.  

On their official website are a number of links to articles and statements in which BCS administrators and those making the most money from its existence argue for its continued existence.  These defenses of the BCS are the same ones that we often hear on television and radio, but none of them is actually a good reason to sit pat with what we’ve been dealt. 

So let’s put all the cards out on the table and see what we actually have.  BCS vs. Playoff, once and for all.  Each of these pro-BCS arguments is taken directly from their website or from articles linked from their website. 

BCS:A 16-team playoff would include guaranteed spots for each of the 11 Division I conferences.   This means that Alabama, Georgia Tech, Ohio State, Oregon and the like would be included.  Also, you would include Central Michigan from the Mid-America Conference and Troy from the Sun Belt.  How much interest would there be in that first round game between Troy and Alabama and likewise, the 2-15 pairing of Central Michigan and Texas?” –Butch Henry, from a BCS’ homepage link to an article published in January 2010 in the Aiken Standard.

Playoff: Exactly.  Each of the power conferences would still get their best horse in the race.  And then the next five best teams would be invited as well.  As for the amount of interest in a Troy vs. Alabama first round game, I’d say it would be considerably higher than a BYU-UTEP New Mexico Bowl.  Or a N. Illinois-Fresno St. Humanitarian Bowl.  Or an Ohio-Troy New Orleans Bowl.  Or a Southern Miss-Louisville Beef O’Brady’s Bowl.  Or than probably any of the 30 non-BCS games, and perhaps more than the Connecticut-Oklahoma Sugar Bowl.

BCS: “There will be no bowls if a playoff system is initiated. Only 16 teams would play postseason. Do you think the Southeastern Conference, which has 10 teams playing in bowl games this year, will support for one second a system in which only two or three teams go to playoffs? How many coaches get fired for not making the playoffs when just two or three get to play? We have more than 60 teams going to bowl games this year. No one will agree to a system that only 16 get to go.” – Henry

Playoff: So make a secondary tournament (like basketball’s NIT) or host bowls for the next 44 teams after the Tournament field is named.  That way we get a legitimate national champion, most of the corporate sponsors still get their names on second tier games, 60+ schools get honored with some postseason play and all those bowl venue communities still cash in. 

BCS: Bowls provide an opportunity for half the schools competing to finish the season as a champion.  A tournament would make 15 out of 16 kids finish as a loser. 

Playoff: True.  If the goal of the bowl system really is to provide a sense of accomplishment to the players, then fine…keep it.  But don’t sell tickets, naming rights, or advertising and play the games behind closed doors.  After all, it’s the kids that matter, not the Title, and not the cash, right?

BCS:An ESPN The Magazine poll in August showed that when players were asked whether they would rather have a college football career with three bowl trips or one playoff trip, 77 percent favored the bowls and only 23 percent wanted a playoff.” – Bill Hancock, Bowl Championship Series executive director on BCSFootball.org

Playoff: If you asked, “Would you rather have a college football career with two bowl trips and a playoff trip or three bowl trips,” my guess is that the majority would prefer at least one title shot along with a free vacation or two. 

BCS: “Division I-AA, II and III playoffs lose money and must be supported by surplus revenues from the Final Four.” - Henry

Playoff: So does pretty much every bowl but the biggest 10, and they are all supported by the big ones.  Additionally, the amount of national interest in Division I-A is so much higher that the interest in the other divisions, that this parallel doesn’t hold up. 

BCS: “Playoff games would have to be played on college campus sites to ensure a crowd for rounds one through three.” [Paraphrasing:]  “Otherwise, crowd support in early round games would be a concern because teams wouldn’t know where they’re playing until only 6 days before the next round.  The Sugar Bowl teams are given 17,500 tickets to sell and would likely swallow many of them.  Basketball tourney teams are given just 750 tickets in the regional rounds and often struggle to sell them.  Attendance would be a huge problem.” – Henry

Playoff: The bowls are currently played at neutral locations, so that part of the argument is moot.  While one week to get fans to mobilize is tougher than one month, I can’t imagine this would truly be a concern in almost all cases.  Additionally, it is reasonable to expect an increase in attendance by more neutral local fans because the games become relevant to all fans, not just fans of the two schools competing.  Boston College and Nevada played 2 miles from my home last night.  Tickets were on Craigslist for as little as $35.  $50 on the 50-yard line.  I am a huge college football fan and it never occurred to me to go to the game.  Had it been a playoff game, even with the same two underwhelming teams, I would certainly have gone and they would have certainly sold out.  Additionally, the other Division I tournament similar in profile, men’s basketball, is played on neutral sites to massive crowds, sometimes five-times more than normal regular season games or more.  And they only get a week’s notice for those games as well. 

As for the tickets allotted, bowl teams have to buy those 17,500-or-so tickets and the schools take a bath almost every time.  Regardless, I imagine most schools would gladly make that investment to make sure they can get in the building every student and alumnus or alumna who wants to be there.

Furthermore, what would be wrong with schools hosting playoff games?  Basically every other sport does it to no negative consequences.  Don’t top seeds deserve home-field advantage?  Won’t it protect the favorites from the small conference winners who perhaps aren’t on par?  So the road fans would only have 6 days to plan travel, but again, that’s how it is with nearly every other sport and anyway, the higher seed’s fans should get the advantage.  Yes, the stadiums may be smaller in some cases and thus revenue would shrink in those cases, but it would also feel less sterile and corporate and would allow (at least half the teams each week) to attend normal classes.  No neutral site reverie like the bowls provide and no corporate media orgies all week (or two), but isn’t this about the football and the kids, anyway?  And besides, couldn’t all those parties and events be held in college towns just as easily as they could be held outside AT&T Park?

BCS: “Playoffs and plus-one systems sound great to the fan because it gives them a better viewing experience. But college athletics should be viewed more like minor league baseball, a breeding ground for potential pros, not a league in and of itself.” – Krystina Lucido from a link on the BCS’ homepage to an article published in December 2010 in the Press Box Online.

Playoff: This is college athletics, not minor league professional athletics.  If we should not view it as “a league in and of itself,” then why is there a BCS at all?  Why aren’t all games considered scrimmages?  Of course there should be a fairly-determined champion and the viewing experience of the fans (students and alumni, especially) is completely relevant. 

BCS: “Playoffs in December would disrupt the exam process.” – Henry

Playoff: Division I-AA, II and III teams seem to have figured this out.  And the BCS causes conflict for academics, as well.  For instance, Auburn and Oregon played the National Championship game on January 10, 2011 and were in town for the game a week earlier…while classes had already begun for the Spring Semester. 

BCS: “The average size of players in Divisions I-AA, II and III are far less than those in Division I-A. Their recovery time is far quicker than the size and strength of players in the largest class. Alabama has already played 13 games. What would be left of its team to play four more games over the next four weeks?” – Henry

Playoff: All players would be at the same disadvantage, so there would be no advantage gained by anyone but those teams strong enough to rest stars.  And is a D-IA player’s recovery time really that much longer?  They are bigger on average, yes, but they’re also more athletic and stronger on average as well.  NFL players are bigger, stronger and more athletic that D-IA players, and they play 16 games plus as many as four postseason games.  Should we get rid of the NFL playoffs and just vote for the Super Bowl competitors after Week 11?

BCS:Even a four-team playoff adds two games to a 12 or 13-game season.  Fourteen games for a student athlete is way too much; this is like a professional schedule” – Mark Even on Bleacher Report

Playoff: Putting the semifinals on January 1 would be best for keeping the New Year’s festival feel.  So the Quarterfinals would be the week before Christmas.  The First Round would be around December 10-15.  Each round could easily be separated by more than a week to allow extra rest.  Currently college football’s regular season generally wraps up by the end of November.  This provides two weeks or more of down time before the playoffs start.  Additionally, schools could cut their regular seasons down to 11 or 12 games, rather than 12 or 13.  Finally, only 8 teams would play more than 1 postseason game.  Four would play more than two.  Two teams would play more than 3.  They are able to handle this at other levels; there is no reason to think they couldn’t do it at D-IA. 

BCS: “A bowl game…is a reward for a team that has had a successful season.


Playoff: So is a playoff game.  And by successful, do you really mean 7-6?  23 bowls teams were 7-6 or worse in 2010-2011.  8 finished under .500.  It’s one thing for the Seahawks to make the postseason with a sub-.500 record because they won their division.  It would have been another if the Cowboys had been invited because they would have sold a lot of tickets. 

BCS: [Paraphrasing] It would be unfair to take the bowl-swag and per diem money away from athletes. - Henry

Playoff: [Washing vomit out of my mouth after reading that argument] Um, I guess they can still get (illegal) benefits from corporate sponsors for playing in playoff games and, obviously, they would still get per diem.

BCS: “Teams spend five to seven days at the bowl site prior to the game. Practice and meetings take up half the day, and players are free to go to the beach or hit the tourist spots/social gatherings up until a day or so before the game. Then, the coaches put in place the normal game procedures.  If there is a playoff, the players know the coaches will fly the team to the game site on Friday, play the game on Saturday and fly home immediately afterwards.” - Henry

BCS: "Add a playoff and the [AT&T Cotton Bowl] Classic experience becomes nothing more than a short business trip. The Cotton Bowl prides itself on creating life-long memories for the student athletes." - Rick Baker, AT&T Cotton Bowl Classic president on BCSFootball.org

Playoff: So the players will spend more time at home and in class, and the teams spend less money on lodgings.  They are not entitled to trips to the beach or tourist spots.  They can do that on their own time and there is no reason that schools should fund it.  Bowl trip festivities seem to blatantly break NCAA rules against improper benefits given to athletes.  Are other non-athletes afforded the same trips? As for memories, I think the winning team would still look back fondly on the game while the losing team would still blame the refs. 

BCS: "[Some] claim the bowls will survive a playoff, but a playoff would put an end to the Maaco Las Vegas Bowl.” - Tina Kunzer-Murphy, Football Bowl Association chairman and Maaco Las Vegas Bowl executive director on BCSFootball.org

Playoff: Perhaps, but it would also be the beginning of a legitimate NCAA Division IA football championship, which is the point, isn’t it?  The Las Vegas Bowl could continue to choose non-tournament teams if they so chose.  Granted, there would be little interest in that game perhaps, but there already is little interest in it.

BCS: “Almost all bowls donate a portion of the local profits to area charity. There is no charity when the NCAA takes over. There is no incentive for a locality to support the local playing of a game other than tourism.” – Henry

Playoff: No charities besides the non-profit universities that would reap huge financial windfalls, right?  As Henry writes, they don’t all donate to charity anyway, so don’t paint them all with a saintly brush.  A lot of money would be lost by venue-area businesses but the point is to choose a national champion in the fairest way possible, not to pimp our finest athletes out to the highest bidder.  The amount of money brought in the participating schools and their local communities would be huge in relation to what they make now, so the point is basically moot. 

BCS: “Bowl games have a great following on television. This past year, the Alamo Bowl between Missouri and Northwestern had higher ratings on ESPN than Duke-North Carolina basketball.” - Henry

Playoff: I’m guessing that Duke-North Carolina game wasn’t a postseason game, or that stat would have been different.  Football is far more popular than basketball; ratings for regular season college football games routinely out-do ratings for regular season college basketball games.  But NCAA Tourney basketball games routinely out-do bowl games.   That same 2008-2009 Alamo Bowl between Missouri and Northwestern got a 4.60 national television rating.  It was the 8th highest rated bowl of that year.  The average bowl game (34 games total) that year drew a 3.99.  The average NCAA basketball tournament game (65 games total) in the same year drew a 5.71.  And keep in mind that the Alamo Bowl (like nearly all bowls) was played on either a holiday, a weeknight in primetime or on a weekend.  Almost half of those 65 basketball games were played on a weekday or before primetime.  And they still outperformed the bowls by an average of 143%

BCS: "January 1 has become internationally known as America's New Year Celebration, and a salute to tradition and a love of pageantry that has thrived in Pasadena since 1902. Without a bowl system and structure in place, college football loses its unique appeal and storied traditions. In its place a corporate sporting environment of a playoff would destroy the experience for all those involved: athletes, host communities and fans alike." -Scott McKibben, Tournament of Roses, Rose Bowl Game executive director on BCSFootball.org

Playoff: The loss of January 1 as a College Football Holiday would be too bad.  And there is something to a pageantry of the January 1 Bowls that would be lost, the Rose Bowl in particular.  However, the BBVA Compass Bowl pitted a 7-5 team against a 6-6 team on January 8, 2011.  The godaddy.com Bowl pitted a 6-6 team and a 9-4 team on January 6, 2011.  It seems to me that the sanctity of January 1 is long gone already.  And are we really arguing that a playoff would create more of a corporate structure than a system of corporate-sponsored bowls?  Also, I’m pretty sure that January 1 is everyone’s New Year Celebration, not just America’s.

BCS: “A large amount of the attendees to these games are students. A playoff series, played in multiple areas, is not conducive to the audience. Students can't travel that much and universities cannot supply that much transportation.” – Lucido

Playoff: This is a good point, but I fall back on the fact that the other divisions of football all do it and play in front of sold out (though smaller) stadiums.  If games were played at home-sites, this would be less of a problem, and again, there would be far more casual local fan interest. 

BCS: Won’t the 17th team complain (probably rightfully) that they deserve a seat at the table just like the 3rd team does now, or the 69th team will in basketball this year?

Playoff: Yes they will, but it’s a lot harder to argue that point when you are barely good enough to be on the national title radar at 17th than when you are 3rd and possibly undefeated.

BCS: The four BCS Bowl venues would never allow a playoff to happen because they currently get to host two games every four years.  With a playoff, even if they kept their name on the playoff games, they’d only get one game per year.

Playoff: Why are non-school, non-conference, and non-NCAA officials making these decisions in the first place?  Also, this could easily be fixed by having a 3rd place game the day before the National Championship game and that third place game could rotate among the big four each year.

BCS: If teams want to make the National Championship game, they should take care of business on the field and make sure they make the top two. 

Playoff: Like TCU going 12-0, Stanford (losing only at #2 Oregon), Wisconsin (losing only at #9 Michigan State), Ohio State (losing only at #5 Wisconsin), Boise State (losing only at #15 Nevada in overtime), or Michigan State (losing only at then #18 Iowa) going 11-1?

BCS: Putting aside all the other bowls, in most years since the BCS worked and got the two best teams in the championship game

Playoff: Except the times that it hasn’t worked.  And again, just because the two best teams faced off for the title, doesn’t mean the third (or others) best teams didn’t also deserve a shot.  It seems that every season we all say, “This is the year that finally proves how terrible this system is,” and yet the next year seems to always make a new and even stronger argument for tearing the system down.

BCS: “College football is the one sport where the regular season counts.” - Henry

Playoff: That’s a bit of a stretch, but it is perfectly accurate to say that it is the one sport where the postseason doesn’t count.

Put plainly, there is simply no good reason for universities to remain in the BCS system.  It clearly does not determine a champion in the best way possible and it doesn’t make them the most money possible.  Austin Murphy and Dan Wetzel wrote a cover story for Sports Illustrated that pointed out the massive amounts of money that universities pay out in order to cover their bowl trips.  From unsold tickets to travel to hotels to meals to media campaigns and events, schools break their banks to get into bowls that don’t wind up earning them any money or get them any closer to a national title.  But bowl organizers reap fortunes from the games, even paying annual salaries over $1 million just for a few days of events.  Their stark picture of the bowl system and the BCS clearly shows that it is the bowl committees making all the money, not the universities or conferences.  And while they are entitled to their entrepreneurial ventures, that simply has nothing to do with football, with schools or with kids. 

And I’ve not even gotten into the ridiculously unfair conference tie-ins that placed unranked Connecticut in a BCS bowl and forced #10 Boise State to play before Christmas.  Nor did I get into the recruiting power that smaller conference schools would gain, thus leveling the playing field, and making it unnecessary for schools to destroy smaller conferences and rivalries by jumping ship in chasing football money.

The bowl organizers say it would ruin them to have a playoff.  Perhaps.  But it should be the schools getting rich, not the party planners.  And while ultimately, college football is extraordinarily popular even with this corrupt and broken system, if you had a car that everyone liked the look of but it didn’t run properly, you’d go get it fixed.  

Monday, December 6, 2010

2010-2011 NCAA Division I-A Football Playoff Bracket


Sweet 16
Chick-fil-A Bowl: 1 Auburn Tigers vs. 16 Troy Trojans
Champs Sports Bowl: 8 Arkansas Razorbacks vs. 9 Michigan State Spartans
Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl: 5 Wisconsin Badgers vs. 12 Nevada Wolfpack
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: 4 Stanford Cardinal vs. 13 Central Florida Golden Knights
AutoZone Liberty Bowl: 2 Oregon Ducks vs. 15 Miami Redhawks
AT&T Cotton Bowl: 7 Oklahoma Sooners vs. 10 Boise State Broncos
Meineke Car Care Bowl: 6 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. 11 Virginia Tech Hokies
Outback Bowl: 3 Texas Christian Horned Frogs vs. 14 Connecticut Huskies

Elite 8 (National Quarterfinals)
Allstate Sugar Bowl: 1 Auburn/16 Troy vs. 8 Arkansas/9 Michigan State
Valero Alamo Bowl: 4 Stanford/13 Central Florida vs. 5 Wisconsin/12 Nevada
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: 2 Oregon/15 Miami vs. 7 Oklahoma/10 Boise State
Capital One Bowl: 3 TCU/14 Connecticut vs. 6 Ohio State/11 Virginia Tech

Final Four (National Semifinals)
Discover Orange Bowl: 1/8/9/16 vs. 4/5/12/13
Rose Bowl Game Presented by VIZIO: 2/7/10/15 vs. 3/6/11/14

National Finals
Tostitos National Championship Game

Seedings and Bowl Selections
1 Auburn (SEC Champion, BCS #1), 13-0
2 Oregon (Pac-10 Champion, BCS #2), 12-0
3 TCU (MWC Champion, BCS #3), 12-0
4 Stanford (at large, BCS #4), 11-1
5 Wisconsin (Big Ten Champion, BCS #5), 11-1
6 Ohio State (at large, BCS #6), 11-1
7 Oklahoma (Big 12 Champion, BCS #7), 11-2
8 Arkansas (at large, BCS #8), 10-2
9 Michigan State (at large, BCS #9), 11-1
10 Boise State (at large, BCS #10), 11-1
11 Virginia Tech (ACC Champion, BCS #13), 11-2
12 Nevada (WAC Champion, BCS #15), 12-1
13 Central Florida (C-USA Champion, BCS #25), 10-3
14 Connecticut (Big East Champion, unranked), 8-4
15 Miami (Mid-American Champion, unranked), 9-4
16 Troy (Sun Belt Champion, unranked), 6-6

Because there were four conference champions not ranked among the top 16 at the end of the season, four teams who were ranked in the top 16 were bumped out of the playoffs: 11 LSU (3rd in the SEC, 10-2), 12 Missouri (3rd in the Big 12, 10-2), 14 Oklahoma State (4th in the Big 12, 10-2), and Alabama (5th in the SEC, 9-3).

The Fiesta Bowl is next in the BCS rotation and will host the national championship game.
The Orange Bowl won the lottery and chose to host the potential 1 vs. 4 semifinal game.
The Rose Bowl was next and will host the potential 2 vs. 3 seminal game.
The Sugar Bowl chose to host the potential 1 vs. 8 quarterfinal game.
The Fiesta Bowl chose to host the potential 2 vs. 7 quarterfinal game.
The Capital One Bowl had the highest non-BCS TV rating in 2009-10 and chose to host the potential 3 vs. 6 quarterfinal game.
The Alamo Bowl was next and will host the potential 4 vs. 5 quarterfinal game.
The Fight Hunger Bowl (formerly the Emerald Bowl) was next and chose to host 4 Stanford vs. 13 Central Florida.
The Meineke Car Care Bowl was next and chose to host 6 Ohio State vs. 11 Virginia Tech.
The Cotton Bowl was next and chose to host 7 Oklahoma vs. 10 Boise State.
The Champs Sports Bowl was next and chose to host 8 Arkansas vs. 9 Michigan State.
The Chick-fil-A Bowl was next and chose to host 1 Auburn vs. 16 Troy.
The Liberty Bowl was next and chose to host 2 Oregon vs. 15 Miami.
The Holiday Bowl was next and chose to host 5 Wisconsin vs. 12 Nevada.
The Outback Bowl was next and will host 3 TCU vs. 14 Connecticut.

Read here for information on how this tournament came to replace the BCS.

UPDATE: As noted in this article, the "final" BCS rankings released last week were incorrect.  Apparently no one really checks the data before it is released each week and since their mathematical system for determining the rankings is not made public, no one really can.  It was later discovered that a I-AA playoff game was omitted from the mathematical morass, probably because someone figured a game between two I-AA schools doesn't matter.  Turns out it does because they also played against I-A schools this year, so their records affect strength of schedule for a whole web of I-A schools.  Long story short, LSU and Boise State were incorrectly ranked 10th and 11th, respectively, but they should have been flipped.  In this bracket, I had initially placed LSU at #10 and in the Cotton Bowl against Oklahoma in the first round.  I have since fixed this error and replaced LSU with Boise State.   The Cotton Bowl would likely still choose this matchup because Oklahoma is so close to Dallas and Boise State's presence creates a big national buzz.

NCAA Division I-A Playoff Guidelines

The 2010-11 Playoff Bracket is posted here, but before we proceed, a few notes on the new playoff system:

The Bowl Championship Series (BCS) system has been dismantled because it became clear that the best interests of neither the sport nor of the student-athletes were in mind.  Further, as will be shown is another post, the BCS was not the ratings-grabbing money-maker that it was purported to be, and it was determined that not only could a playoff do a better job of determining a national champion, but it could also make more money for the schools, conferences, the NCAA, the networks, and the corporate sponsors, while not interfering with the student-athletes' educational interests.

Since we have switched to a playoff system for the "Football Bowl Series" or "FBS", that name no longer applies.  Therefore we are switching back to the traditional "I-A" and "I-AA" instead of "FBS" and "FCS."  The NCAA apologizes for this as one of many, many embarrassing and ridiculous errors during the BCS-era.

Many bowl games are still under contract with corporate sponsors, and fans enjoy the "bowl atmosphere", so we have decided to maintain the names of the bowls within the playoff format.  The four BCS bowl games were given prominent spots in the lineup.

In the BCS system, the national championship game rotated through the four BCS-bowl sites on a four-year cycle, so every four years, each of those four sites actually got to host two bowls: their own plus the national championship game.   This system will continue, with the Fiesta Bowl keeping its spot for 2010-11.

There will then be a lottery among the other three bowls to determine which games they host.  The winner will host a national semifinal game (Final Four) and gets to choose which side of the bracket they want (the 1 vs. 4 side or the 2 vs. 3 side).  The next winner gets the other national semifinal (Final Four).  The third team will host a national quarterfinal game (Elite Eight) and gets to choose which game (1 vs. 8, 2 vs. 7, 3 vs. 6, or 4 vs. 5).  The national championship host then gets to choose which national quarterfinal (Elite Eight) they will host as well.

The remaining playoff games (two Elite Eight games and eight Sweet 16 games) will be hosted by the next 10 most-prominent bowls based on last year's television ratings.  Beginning in 2011-12, all other bowl contracts will be voided and these 10 games will be up for sponsorship and will simply go to the highest bidder.  The same will hold for all 15 games' television rights.  2010-11 contracts will hold but all networks will have open bidding for all games starting in 2011-12.

This only allows for 15 playoff-bowl games, but 35 bowls had been scheduled for 2010-11.  After the 16-team playoff field is selected, those other 20 bowls may invite any bowl-eligible teams they choose.  In subsequent years, an N.I.T.-type secondary tournament is likely to arise, replacing (or absorbing) many of these lower-tier bowls.

Team Selection:  One automatic playoff bid will be awarded to the champion of each of the 11 I-A conferences.  At-large bids will be presented to the next five highest ranked teams.  Conferences will determine their own champions (based on regular season standings, a conference title game or ranking system).  The five at-large schools will be determined by the final BCS rankings.  Generally speaking, the BCS' ranking system is effective.  Each year it will be reviewed to fix any problems that arise, but for the time being, it will remain the official ranking system that determines the seeding.

The 11 conferences with automatic bids are the Southeastern, Pacific 10, Mountain West, Big Ten, Big 12, Atlantic Coast, Western Athletic, Conference-USA, Big East, Mid-American and Sun Belt conferences.  The inclusion of each of them will hopefully prevent the concentration of football powers in 3-4 leagues.  Since schools will be have good opportunities to make the playoffs from any conference, they will be more likely to stay in the conferences that suit their entire athletic departments and universities, not just one of the 3-4 "major" conferences from the current BCS system.

This automatic-bid system will preclude some possibly-deserving schools from making the playoffs and include some seemingly undeserving schools.  For instance, Boise State will be left out of the 2010-11 playoffs, but Troy will be included.  This is unfortunate, but no matter what the system, there will always be someone left out.  It is more fair to have the #11 team left out than the #3 team, which occurs currently in the BCS system.  There will be no minimum eligibility requirements for being playoff eligible besides winning a conference championship.

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Commissioner of Sports: November Decrees

Ah, November Baseball
On the NFL's new tackling controversy:
Many NFL players and alumni were upset recently when Commissioner Goodell said that helmet-to-helmet and other illegal hits would result in increased fines and even suspensions.  The common defense of these hits was that "football is a violent game," "that's how we've been taught to tackle since pee-wee football," and "they're interfering with my ability to do my job." 

Each of these points is stupid because the hits that Goodell is cracking down on were already illegal.  Yes, it is a violent game, but there is no need to intentionally inflict injury, and James Harrison infamously said is his intent when he hits someone.  Intentionally attacking someone physically is a crime and as we have seen in the NHL, especially cheap shots on the field can be prosecuted off of it.  No pee-wee football player was taught to dive into another player headfirst - you are taught to keep your head up so you can see if the guy makes a move and you are taught to wrap him up with your arms, not bounce off and hope you hit him hard enough to knock him down. 

On the MLB schedule and playoff expansion:
Major League Baseball's season is unnecessarily long, causing the World Series to tumble in November.  There are two reasons why this has never been remedied: cutting games means cutting revenue and would destroy baseball sacred statistics.  Both are reasonable.  But not enough.

MLB should change to a 140 game schedule, cutting interleague out of the regular season schedule.  The season could start later and this would also allow more time for the World Baseball Classic and the Olympics.  The shorter season would still provide ample time to determine the best playoff teams.  The risk is that owners would raise ticket prices fractionally to make up for the 11-lost home games, but I will address that later. 

Additionally, the playoffs should not be expanded beyond the current 8-team format.  If after 162 (or 140) games, you still can't get yourself into a better position than third place, you are clearly not the best team and shouldn't get to be in the playoffs.  And no World Series game should ever be scheduled to be played in November.  The divisional series should be expanded to best-of-7 series, which will require a tightening of the playoff schedule.  This year teams played 162 games in 182 days (including a 3 day break for the All-Star game).  That means they play a game every 27 hours for six months - 20 rest days.  If a team had played all 19 scheduled playoff games (5+7+7), they would have played a game every 35 hours - 9 rest days.  There is no need for so much time off.  One travel day could be eliminated from each of the three playoff rounds (still leaving two rainout makeup days per round), two games could be added to the LDS round, and the whole 21-game tournament could be completed in fewer days than the current system is - and in October, where it belongs. 

On ticket prices at sporting events:
On one level, sports is a business and business owners have the right to charge whatever they want for their products.  If the price is too high, consumers won't buy and they'll have to drop prices.  Hurray America.  But as any sports fan will tell you, sports is not just a business.  When a deli has a good month, the owner takes home a little extra cash.  That's a business.  When a sports franchise has a good month, millions of fans are taken along for the ride.  When a business succeeds in some huge way, there's a blip on the ticker on your TV.  When a sports teams succeeds in a huge way, there are parades through downtown. 

So since sports is more than a business, it is a part of people's families, it cannot only be controlled by the free market.  From season to season, ticket prices cannot be raised beyond the rise in inflation plus a percentage increase equal to the increase in value for the seats (new HD jumbotron?  That's worth a percentage per seat per game).  Additionally, while it is reasonable to have premier pricing for premier opponents, it is not reasonable to increase pricing based on expected weather or other factors that the team cannot control. 

The San Francisco Giants charge more for a Dodgers series than a Marlins series.  That's reasonable.  But they and others have reportedly considered having pricing increase based on other factors, such as weather forecasts and specific player matchups.  That's not reasonable because they cannot guarantee the thing they are charging more for.  If my seat is in the shade and I am a little cool, I might want a refund.  Or it is too sunny and I get a sunburn.  Or it's a little windier in my section.  Or the forecast is wrong completely.  Or on gameday Roy Halladay decides his shoulder is sore and he wants a few days to rest it.  Or the manager decides to give Albert Pujols the day off.  Or Pujols gets hurt in the first and comes out of the game.  Or he goes 0-4.  In any of these (very reasonable) situations, the fans aren't getting what they paid for and should be entitled to a refund.

On college sports rankings:
Is there anyone left who still thinks the BCS is a good idea or that it is working properly?  During its reign, how many times has it come up with a #1 vs. #2 matchup that was unassailable?  Once?  Twice?  The previous system did not work either, of course, which is what necessitated the change in the first place.  But we now have a pretty good sample size and this experiment doesn't work.  You know what does work for basically every other league at every level of basically every sport in the world?  Playoffs.  Bad for business?  I don't think so.  Will you watch the BCS title game this year?  Sure.  How many of the next best 15 bowls will you watch?  Three?  Four?  How many of the 15 games would you watch in a 16-team tournament?  Twelve?  Thirteen?  Tell advertisers that viewership will be roughly 3-4 times what it is currently and see how bad for business a playoff would be.

The AP recently named their preseason All-America team and for the first time in a long time, the men's team included a freshman.  That sound you hear is the death-knell of such pre-season voting.  I officially bad pre-season All-Conference and All-American voting.  This is even more of a complete guess than Mel Kiper's 2011 Mock Draft that he published in April of 2010.  At least Kiper had seen the kids play before.

On the NFL's various expansion plans:
No American sports league shall expand to include European-based teams until travel from the west coast of North America takes as long to get to the eastern edge of Europe as it does to get to the east coast of North America today, and until the world stops using time zones.  So don't hold your breath. 

Currently the NFL absurdly forces two teams to play one game per season in London.  The schedule is set so that these teams have their bye week after the trip.  How would it work if we had teams playing in Europe regularly?  Byes would have to be scheduled throughout the season for such travel.  And European teams would have to have multiple byes to make up for all the games they have to travel to America for. 

Another thought is that the NFL would have a third conference based in Europe.  Not only would this not eliminate the constant travel problems, it also creates a talent-pool problem.  Teams in the current NFC and AFC play inter-conference games each week.  Would they continue to play these while the 16 new European teams only play one another all season?  Certainly that would be a competitive imbalance, not to mention that adding many more teams would destroy the talent level in the league as whole. 

Additionally, the NFL tried this before.  NFL-Europe failed miserably.  Why would this do any better?

Finally, the NFL will not expand to an 18-game regular season.  Goodell parades around with a stern look on his face and a quick trigger for suspensions and fines when it comes to issues of player safety, but if he had to choose between player safety and more revenue, he'd double the ticket prices and have players play without pads and allow each team to have a sniper on the sidelines.

Yes, players could get injured in Week 1 just as likely as in Week 18, but that's not a good argument.  Russian roulette is dangerous.  Maybe you'll find the bullet on the first try, or maybe on the sixth.  But why not negotiate for more chances to pull the trigger?  By the end of an NFL season, teams are quite lucky to have the key players in tact.  So lucky that the top seeds are even given an extra week just to try and recover a little.  So why make them all beat themselves up for two more weeks when they already barely make it out standing up?

On professional sports labor standoffs:
Basically every time a labor agreement is set to end in any professional sport, both sides accuse the other of unfair negotiation tactics.  Often there is a lockout or strike.  And neither side really needs to budge because they're all millionaires (or billionaires) anyway.  But the fans get screwed.  We miss out on games, playoffs, and even entire seasons.  So from now on, if the two sides cannot negotiate a new deal by the time the current one expires, all the issues being haggled over will be posted on the league's website.  Each side will be given a paragraph per issue to make their case.  Fan will then vote.  The options will be A: Players get their way. B: 50/50. D: Owners get their way.  No other options to confuse it.  Find some fancy way to prevent ballot stuffing and post it online. 

Thursday, September 16, 2010

Commissioner of Sports on Jets Locker Room Controversy

Recently a huge national story was made out of a complete non-story (I know, be more specific).  In this case, it was a female reporter apparently feeling harrassed by athletes and coaches in the Jets' locker room.  Never mind that this reporter was scantilly clad and markets herself as the sexiest woman in sports, so it is surprising that she is allegedly upset by getting the exact reaction she is aiming for.  The issue for me is that a female reporter was in the locker room in the first place.

A few years ago, this debate reached its peak and female reporters were allowed to work in men's locker rooms despite all of the naked and half-naked men there.  The thinking was that not allowing them in the locker room would create an unfair advantage for their male-reporter-competition.  There is some logic to that.  However, even as a news and sports producer for CBS, I think I would have been arrested had I entered the women's locker room at a WNBA game, tennis tournament, or other women's event.  Rightfully so!

So we shouldn't have reporters in the opposite sex's locker rooms, but we have to allow reporters equal access to the athletes and coaches.  Hmm.  If only there was a room where the press could conduct interviews after a sporting event.  An interview room, perhaps.  What's that?  There are interview rooms in basically every professional stadium in the world and the athletes and coaches go there after leaving the locker room every time anyway?

Well then, how about we just don't allow the press into locker rooms at all.  Allow the players to celebrate or punch holes in the walls in private.  Allow in-fighting and coaches' talks in private.  Allow them time to take care of their personal hygiene, physical therapy, and dressing in private.  Then interview them in the interview room.

Click here for previous issues tackled by the Commissioner of Sports.

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

What He Really Said: Reggie Bush

Painfully out-of-character statements of apology can sometimes seem as insulting as the offense for which they are issued.  Are we really to believe that a kid who can't spell his own name, but whose ability to dunk a ball in 7th grade got him C's on report cards for the next seven years until he was eligible for the draft, really wrote out prose so clear, precise and erudite and that it would make Hemingway blush?

What if the handlers wrote these statements in character?  Or what if they didn't write them at all?  What if the one apologizing actually did the apologizing?

Worn down by months of media attention, today Reggie Bush forfeited his 2005 Heisman Trophy and released the following statement:

"One of the greatest honors of my life was winning the Heisman Trophy in 2005.  For me, it was a dream come true. But I know that the Heisman is not mine alone. Far from it. I know that my victory was made possible by the discipline and hard work of my teammates, the steady guidance of my coaches, the inspiration of the fans, and the unconditional love of my family and friends. And I know that any young man fortunate enough to win the Heisman enters into a family of sorts. Each individual carries the legacy of the award and each one is entrusted with its good name.

“It is for these reasons that I have made the difficult decision to forfeit my title as Heisman winner of 2005."

What he really said:
"One of the greatest tricks to hooking up with chicks in my life was winning the Heisman Trophy in 2005. I mean, I did alright before because I was pretty much the shit in high school and then I went to USC and we ruled that place.  I didn't go to class...I didn't have to pay for anything...  I pretty much just worked out, studied film, practiced, hooked up, and made dudes look stupid like that guy from Oregon that I juked out that they keep showing on ESPN.  But then when I won the Heisman, man the women I started hooking up with were on another level.  Have you seen Kim Kardassian's ass? And any dude that wins the Heisman gets the same kinda women.  I mean Chris Weinke was a nasty looking dude and he was getting Heisman action.  Actually, not "any dude" because Ty Detmer was supposedly like a monk or something.  But even Tebow got down.  You saw that picture with that girl.  Sure, you're "just friends," Tim.  I'm just friends with Mayra Veronica, too.  And I have tons of sex with my friend, too. 
"But let's face it.  I cheated my ass off at USC.  We got a house, man.  Those fools at Oklahoma got busted for getting paid to work at a car dealership that they didn't work at.  I got a house.  So anyway, everyone's freaking out about it, and the Heisman groupies move on pretty quickly anyway, so I am just gonna give that shit back.  Hell, I don't need it anymore.  I won a Super Bowl.  Plus, I don't think Mayra even knows what the Heisman is.  And let's face it, that little dude got me hooked into the Kardassians and those chicks are psycho.  Huh, that's funny.  You win the Heisman, you get the hot, crazy sister in a family of groupies.  You win the NBA title like Odom, and you get the ugly, chubby, crazy sister.  And then the Super Bowl gets you whatever the hell you want, although I think I need to upgrade.
"It is for these reasons that I have made the "difficult" decision to forfeit my title as Heisman winner of 2005.  Plus, I was 'roided up the whole time, so it doesn't really count anyway.  Also, I am sorry that I got caught."