SoCal Sports Hub: Hardball Weakly (6/8/09)

Dodgers Help Lower Phillies' Team ERA

The Dodgers offense has finally slowed down a bit from its torrid pace. Whether it was with Manny Ramirez or without, they seemed to be able to string hits together at will and score runs in bunches. Facing a Phillies' pitching staff that boasts the second worst ERA in the National League, they probably expected to have four huge offensive games last week at home.

But the Phils put up a fight and held the Dodgers to just nine runs over the course of the four-game series. While Andre Ethier seems to have finally awoken from the slump he fell into when Manny went out, Orlando Hudson, Casey Blake, Rafael Furcal, and Russell Martin are all now slumping.

As for Juan Pierre, who is hitting .362 in Manny's stead, the Dodgers will likely try and trade him for pitching help while his value is still sky-high. Pierre is in the final year of one of many terrible contracts the Dodgers have signed over the past few years and is making $10,000,000 this year. Clearly Manny Ramirez' job is waiting for him when he comes back, and Matt Kemp and Ethier are part of the "untouchable" group that the Dodgers have repeatedly said they won't move. Plus Ethier makes just $3.1 M this year and Kemp $467,000 (yes, you read that right).

The Gang's All Here

Although the Halos were just 3-3 on last week's road trip in Toronto and Detroit, they have to be thrilled with the pitching they got from Ervin Santana and Kelvim Escobar.

Santana had missed the first six weeks of the season with an elbow injury and allowed 15 runs in his last two starts over just 6-1/3 innings. He was back to his All-Star form against Detroit, scattering six hits and seven K's over 8-2/3 innings, and allowing only 1 run to score for his first win of 2009.

Escobar took the mound for the first time since 2007 and allowed just four hits through five innings, taking the loss as the Angels fell 2-1 a day after they'd beaten Detroit by the same score on Friday. With their stellar rotation of Jered Weaver, John Lackey, Santana, Escobar, and Joe Saunders back together, and the offense continues to improve, the Angels have only given Texas a 4.5-game lead and will look to make that up by the All-Star break.

I Wouldn't Want To Pitch To The Phillies Either

Since winning a Major League Baseball season-high 10-straight last month, the Padres are just 3-8 in their last 11, and have slipped back to a double-digit deficit behind the Dodgers. They play five games in Los Angeles this week, facing the Dodgers twice and Angels thrice.

Jake Peavy left after just one inning against the Phillies last week (upper respiratory infection), but will be back on the hill twice this week. Peavy is just 5-6 with an ERA over 4.00 this season, though his 84 strikeouts put him fifth in the National League. The lone bright spot for the Padres continues to be Adrian Gonzalez whose 22 homers lead all of baseball.

The Lineup (9 Things To Watch This Week)
Major League Baseball's Draft (Tuesday-Thursday)
Padres at Dodgers (Tuesday-Wednesday)
Angels at Rays (Tuesday-Thursday)
Dodgers at Rangers (Friday-Sunday)
Mets host Phillies (Tuesday-Thursday) and visit the new Yankee Stadium (Friday-Sunday)
Red Sox at Phillies (Friday-Sunday)
Oakland (6 straight wins) vs. Minnesota (Monday-Thursday) and at San Francisco (Friday-Sunday)
Ian Stewart (Colorado) has 4 homers and 12 RBI in his last 5 games
Edwin Jackson (Detroit) is 5-1 with 7 earned runs in his last six starts (at White Sox Thursday)
Seattle takes the AL's best ERA to Colorado (Friday-Sunday)

This post is a copy of a weekly feature I write for SoCal Sports Hub. Check out their site for great info., articles, interviews and comments on all Southern California pro and college sports.

SoCal Sports Hub: Hardball Weekly (6/1/09)

Wanted: Season-Saving Rally Monkey

Ervin Santana’s much anticipated return to the Angels has not gone as the team hoped. He is 0-2 with a 9.50 ERA (31 runs allowed in four games), but he isn’t much worse than the rest of the Angels right now. Hovering just one game over .500, the injury-riddled Angels just stumbled through a 2-4 home stand that left them 4.5 games behind the red-hot Rangers, and staring a 9-game road trip in the face.

But if there is such a thing as a turning point, the Angels may have had one Sunday when they overcame a seven-run deficit in the 6th inning, capped off with a 3-run ninth for the walk-off. Torii Hunter continues to lead the Halos in nearly every offensive category, hitting .313 with 12 homers and nearly an RBI per game. If the Angels can keep riding Hunter until Vlad Guerrero, John Lackey, and Santana get back to form, they are still the favorites in the AL West despite the Rangers’ start.

Odd Man Out

With just 32 calendar days left, the Dodgers are nearly halfway through Manny Ramirez’ steroid-suspension. A few weeks ago, it seemed that the Dodgers might be in deep trouble when their saw they Division lead dwindle and their hitting stop. Now it seems the biggest problem they will deal with in the West is where to put Manny when he is eligible.

Andre Ethier’s batting average has fallen 60-points in Manny’s absence, and Juan Pierre has hit over .400 for most of that span (.374 on the season), but Pierre cannot be played in right field because of his weak throwing arm. Matt Kemp would be tough to move from center field with his solid defense and impressive hitting. But you can’t take Manny’s bat out of the lineup either. So Pierre will likely be relegated to the bench again despite his torrid hitting.

Maybe They Should Threaten To Trade Other Guys Too

The Padres completed a trade with the White Sox to send ace Jake Peavy to Chicago, but Peavy vetoed the deal. Since then, Peavy is 3-0 and the Padres have done what they needed to do to get back into the race in the NL West, going 12-3 (including a 10-game win streak). Unfortunately, the Dodgers regained their form just before that stretch and have surrendered only 1.5 games during that span, and the Padres still sit in third place, 9-games back.

Adrian Gonzalez continues to put up MVP numbers, even though he is a long shot for the All-Star game. Gonzalez leads baseball with 20 homers, and has 40 RBI through 50 games. But Scott Hairston and Gonzalez are the only two Padre regulars hitting over .250, and despite Peavy’s renewed success, they simply cannot compete with the Dodgers over the long haul. The clock is ticking louder and louder on the Padres’ stars careers at Petco.

The Lineup (9 Things To Watch This Week)

Dodgers vs. Phillies in battle of Division Leaders (Thursday-Sunday at Dodger Stadium)
Angels start 9-game road trip (Toronto, Detroit, Tampa Bay)
Jake Peavy vs. Phillies Offense (2nd in NL in runs scored) (Wednesday at Petco Park)
Juan Pierre: 1-13 in last three games (Dodgers went 1-2), 12-24 in previous five (Dodgers were 4-1)
Rangers take West division lead to New York and Boston
Baltimore’s Luke Scott hit .533 with six homers and 14 RBI over a four-game stretch last week
Carlos Zambrano returns to the mound after suspension (Thursday at Atlanta)
Washington (on pace for 43 wins) has lost 6 straight (host San Francisco and New York Mets)
Mets (7-2) and Phillies (12-4) red hot and separated by .5
Phillies (5.02) and Yankees (4.94) have the 4th and 5th worst ERAs in baseball despite leading their divisions

This post is a copy of a weekly feature I write for SoCal Sports Hub. Check out their site for great info., articles, interviews and comments on all Southern California pro and college sports.

SoCal Sports Hub: Hardball Weekly (5/18/09)

On Pace For 64 Homers (That'd Be The Record, Right?)

The bad news for the Padres is that they are second-to-last in the National League in runs scored and batting average. The good news is that division rival Arizona is last in both, and Rockies are equally inept. The Padres had lost six straight going into their weekend series with the Reds, and came away with a sweep, thanks in part to some 16th innings heroics on Saturday.

Adrian Gonzalez homered in five straight games last week, and considering that his protection in the lineup is coming from Chase Headley, who is batting .246, you have to wonder how long it will be before the Major League home run lead is taken away from him, and when he will start running away with the walks-lead.

Manny Who?

The Mets come to Los Angeles looking to continue their hot streak, but they may have already saved the Dodgers' season for them. When Manny Ramirez first went out on his drug-suspension, the Dodgers scuffled; the Giants got hot, and it looked like San Francisco might sneak back up in the race. They closed from 6.5 games back to 3 games back in the blink of an eye and you could feel the Dodgers imploding.

Then the Mets went in and won three straight in San Francisco, pushing the Dodgers' lead back to 6 games and probably ending anyone's hopes of running down the Dodgers in the West. It isn't that a 6 game lead is insurmountable in May; it is that the Dodgers were on the ropes, likely feeling that nothing they could do would be enough without Manny (they're actually out-hitting and out-scoring their own numbers when he was playing). Now they've won four straight, are back to .500 since Manny left, and after 1/5 of the suspension, they're exactly where they were when they started...in front by a mile.

Now the question is whether they can slow the Mets down in Chavez Ravine this week.

Lackey Is Back, Sorta

John Lackey made his 2009 debut over the weekend, taking a no-decision, and sending his ERA to infinity after getting tossed two pitches into the game for throwing behind and then into the chest of the leadoff hitter. It was a questionable ejection and might have cost the Angels the game given that they were essentially forced to have someone start a game on the spot. Lackey is scheduled to throw anywhere from 3-100 pitches Monday night, going up against former Angel great, Jarrod Washburn in Seattle.

Lackey's abridged start on Saturday was in Texas, where the Angels suffered a sweep at the hands of the Rangers, who have won seven in-a-row and suddenly have the 2nd best record in the league. The Angels did take two-of-three from Boston earlier in the week, but the Texas sweep leaves them at .500 and in desperate need of pitching help (allowing over 5 runs per game this season).

Around the League

Unlikely leaders continue to shine in the American League, with Toronto and Texas holding firm in the East and West, and Kansas City only a game back in the Central. The Royals are 2-7 in their last 9 however, and it appears the bloom may be off the rose. The Phillies and Mets have both caught fire and are looking like they will be making the NL East a two-horse race. The Mets are 11-3 in their last 14, and the Phillies are 5-2 in their last seven (though four wins came against the Nationals). Hells Bells are ringing in Milwaukee where Trevor Hoffman has converted four saves in the Brewers' 5-game winning streak. The Yankees are also riding a 5-game streak, thanks to three consecutive walk-off wins at Yankee Stadium over the Twins last weekend.

The Lineup - 9 Things To Watch This Week

Dodgers vs. Mets at Dodger Stadium (Monday-Wednesday)
Angels vs. Mariners at Safeco Field (Monday-Thursday)
Zack Greinke (7-1, .60 ERA) vs. Victor Martinez (.401 BA) (Thursday)
Red Sox/Josh Beckett vs. Mets/Johan Santana (Friday)
Phillies' Lineup (most runs in NL) vs. Yankee Stadium (Friday-Sunday)
Dodgers vs. Angels at Dodger Stadium (Friday-Sunday)
Dodgers/Clayton Kershaw vs. Angels/John Lackey (Saturday)
Adrian Gonzalez (most HR hit) vs. Rich Harden (8th most HR allowed) (Saturday)
Streaks: Rangers - 7 wins, Nationals - 4 losses

This post is a copy of a weekly feature I write for SoCal Sports Hub. Check out their site for great info., articles, interviews and comments on all Southern California pro and college sports.

SoCal Sports Hub: Hardball Weekly (5/11/09)

This is the first major league baseball weekly recap article I have written for SoCal Sports Hub, a site that obviously caters to Southern California sports fans (in case you're wondering why anyone would spend time looking information on the Pads). Check out their site and stay tuned for more weekly MLB updates.

Signs Of Things To Come?

The big story in baseball last week was the Manny Ramirez-suspension of course. You’ve already read, heard, and seen all the angles of this one, but what we’re left with are questions about how the Dodgers will fare for the next two months without Manny. On paper, they’re still the most talented team in the division and should be fine, but on paper the Mets have won the last three National League crowns.

Interestingly, the Dodgers’ hits-per-game, runs-per-game, and batting average have improved in Manny’s absence, with three of the four games played against one of the best pitching staffs in baseball (San Francisco). But the Giants are also a pretty bad team over all and the Dodgers went 1-3 without Manny, all at home, and against the Giants and Nationals (fewest wins in baseball).

Can Juan Pierre keep hitting .426? Can Andre Ethier keep his average from tanking more (32 points in four games so far). Can the Dodgers keep hitting? Can the young guys really just forget that their protection is gone from the lineup? Which is the anomaly: the good hitting or the bad record? Stay tuned as the Boys in Blue head to Philadelphia and Florida this week.

Reinforcements Are On The Way

The best that can be said of the Angels thus far this season is that they have survived. They’ve survived personal tragedy, a plague of injuries, and inconsistent play from top to bottom. Perhaps last week the Halos turned the corner, going 6-1 against two AL division leaders and a cellar-dweller, and crawling back above .500.

Torii Hunter put a perfect cap on the successful week, making a spectacular home run-robbing catch to preserve the win and the series sweep over the upstart Royals. The offense still scuffled, scoring just 21 runs all week, but the pitching mostly shined, allowing just 10 runs in the six wins (and 13 in the loss).

Hosting the Red Sox and then heading to Arlington later this week, the Angels will welcome the first of their many injured compatriots back to the lineup. 2008 All Star pitcher Ervin Santana could possibly join the team as they head to Texas for the weekend series against the Rangers. Ace starter John Lackey appears to be close on Santana’s heels with his rehab going well. And Kelvim Escobar, who is ineligible to return from shoulder surgery for another month, is throwing well as well.

The Wheels Are Off

After quickly rolling out to 9-3 start, including series wins in New York and Philadelphia and a sweep of the Giants, the Padres have slammed back to earth, going just 4-16 since. They are getting nice seasons from Scott Hairston (.333, 16 RBI in 25 games) and Adrian Gonzalez (.294, 10 HR, 22 runs, 22 RBI in 32 games), but overall the team is 2nd to last in the NL in batting average and third to last in runs scored.

Coupled with this dismal offensive production, they are third to last in the league in ERA as well, allowing 4.69 runs per game. They’ve also blown 8 saves (out of 16), further crippling their chances. Even Jake Peavy hasn’t been able to keep his head above water, going 2-4 with a 4.27 ERA thus far.

The Padres can start turning things back around this week as they head to Chicago and then host the Reds, but it already looks like they won’t be one of the clubs putting a scare into the Manny-less Dodgers.

Around The League

The Royals’ AL Central lead evaporated in the SoCal heat as the Angels swept them into second place (by percentage points) over the weekend. Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Washington are in quite a battle for the worst record in the league, currently combining for a 13-game losing streak. The Mets have taken a hold of the NL East and this time it may stick. The Phillies seem to be the only other true contender and can’t get out of their own way (3rd to last in the Bigs in ERA), and the Mets have surged to a 7-game win streak thanks to one of the best pitching staffs (yes, you read that right) and one of the most potent lineups in the game. It appears that St. Louis will not be running away and hiding. Like the Marlins, Dodgers, Royals, Padres and Blue Jays, their hot start has ended and the field is catching up. Alex Rodriguez is back, but the Yankees still stink, so there is some justice in the world.

The Lineup - 9 Thing To Watch This Week
Angels - Red Sox at the Big A (Tuesday - Thursday)
Manny-Less Dodgers at Philadelphia and Florida
Santana (Mets) vs. Lowe (Braves) at Citi Field (Monday)
Zack Greinke (6-1, 0.51 ERA) vs. Baltimore (Friday)
Hanley Ramirez (.533, 11 runs, 4 homers, 7 RBI, 3 SB last week) vs. Milwaukee and L.A.
Ryan Zimmerman (.346, 6 HR, 22 RBI) has a 28-game hitting streak.
A.J. Burnett (Yankees) vs. Roy Halladay (Blue Jays) at Rogers Centre (Tuesday)
Florida (Most K’s in NL) vs. Milwaukee (2nd most) at Miller Park (Tuesday-Thursday)
Streaks: The Mets have won 7 and the Pirates have lost 8

Most Overrated: Cubs, Torre Or Francona?

The baseball playoffs are not exactly going as I had hoped. For one thing, Omar Minaya is ruining my life and the Mets are not in the playoffs. For another, the only teams I don't like keep winning.

Although there are two sides to the coin that was the Dodgers-Cubs series. On the one hand, the freaking Dodgers (who let's face it, are a crappy team having a good week) won the series and are in the NLCS. This makes me sad because it has been fun getting to tease obnoxious Dodger fans by saying, "At least the Mets have won a series in the last two decades." No more fun there. On the other hand, I can now pretty much expect to stop reading and hearing about the Mets "collapse" this year because of what the Cubs have done. Sure the Mets led the East by a few games and were out of the Wild Card race entering September. Sure the Phillies went nuts and passed the Mets, while the Mets ran down the Brewers before tiring at the end and getting passed up in the last two days. But the Cubs had the best record in the league and were a sure thing to make the World Series since Spring Training. Thank you Cubbies!

Joe Torre is getting a ton of credit for the Dodgers' late success, as he always got in New York, and while I like Torre a lot, I think it is pretty unfounded that he is considered such a managerial genius. His records on teams that did not have the highest payroll that year (including this year) is pretty poor. When he won in New York, he had the perfect teams: youth/experience/defense/pitching/chemistry all rolled together. As his payrolls grew, his players got more talented, his chemistry waned and his teams couldn't win it all.

So he came to L.A. and took over an extraordinarily average team. They were inconsequential for most of the season and reports started to leak out that he and third base coach Larry Bowa were not happy with the Dodgers because the team stunk. Apparently they were unaware that it was their job to do something about it. Then they got Manny Ramirez (and Casey Blake) dumped into their laps and the team suddenly surges, with Torre suddenly a genius again. The common denominator between their pathetic first half and their torrid September was Torre and the everyone but Manny basically. So why is Torre getting credit for the change?

I think managers get far too much credit when things go well. Really what do they do besides get out of the way of guys who get hot? Pitching coaches and hitting coaches deserve credit/blame more often than managers because they tinkering with people's games. They are instructing. How many managers actually do anything during the course of a game that is not by the book? Pitching changes, pinch-hitters, when to steal, etc. It is all predetermined and everyone in the building knows when they're coming. But managers can make unusual decisions which either make them lucky geniuses or get them fired.

In Game 3 of the Angels-Red Sox series Terry Francona made a very strange move. Francona is considered a great manager, but he has also benefited by spectacular pitching and Manny Ramirez/David Ortiz in their primes. A horse could have managed these teams. The score was tied in the eleventh, and Ortiz was on first base. The series-winning run was 270 feet from home in the form of a nearly 300-pound man. Clearly the right move was to pinch-run, then you can either steal second and score on a single (like how the Sox beat the Yanks in THE series), or bunt him over and score on a single, which was less likely since their had the heart of their line-up up, and for some strange reason, logical decision-making is thrown out the window when the guy hitting has a 1 in 15 chance of hitting a homer (and incidentally, a 3 in 4 chance of making an out). Even if you do not steal or bunt, a pinch-runner could go first-to-third on a base hit, and Ortiz could not.

But Francona didn't pinch run for the portly Ortiz. Maybe he didn't have a deep enough bench left. Then it was first and second with two outs...certainly you pinch run for him in this scenario! Screw the bench, the game ends with a speedy runner on second and any hit...what is the bench being saved for if not a game-winning hit!? But no pinch runner came on.

Then Mike Lowell walked and the bases were loaded with Ortiz at third with two outs. Not much need for a pinch-runner for Ortiz now. Even he could score from third on a ball into the outfield. So out comes a pinch-runner...for the guy on first!

I understand that Lowell is slow and has a bad hip so he's really slow, and having a speedy runner there makes it harder for the Angels to have an easy out at second on a ball in the infield. That is not a bad play. But can a fast guy at first really be expected to beat out a ball to the short-stop? And if he does, won't they just throw to first for an easy out anyway? And why was Ortiz running for himself all that time if you had a pinch-runner to waste all along?

With speed on first, the pitcher has to respect it and worry about it and throw over and be distracted. With Ortiz there, no problem. With speed on second, the pitcher is even more stressed because he knows any base hit means the series is over.

You can't say it actually cost the Sox the game because Ortiz did not get thrown out at the plate, or make a base-running blunder to end the inning. But it definitely changed the situation for the pitcher and made it easier for him to relax and focus on the guy at the plate. Terrible move by Francona and the Sox eventually lost in the next inning.

American League Predictions

A few days ago I made my predictions for the National League Division winners and playoffs. So far, all of my predictions are right. Despite that the American League is stupid, here are my AL picks:

AL West: Mariners - The Angels are the presumptive favorites, but their pitching is a little banged up right now. Granted, there may still be time left in the season for them to heal up, the Halos seem to have lost the winning edge they had in previous years. Plus, I hate Garrett Anderson. The Mariners may have the deepest rotation in baseball after adding Carlos Silva and Eric Bedard. The A's simply cannot win anything because of moneyball. The Rangers can't win because they're the Rangers. 90-72.

AL Central: Cleveland - Did anyone notice that the Indians won the most games in baseball last year, didn't win the World Series and then returned basically the entire team, now angry and hungry? So the Tigers added that fat third baseman and one of the most overrated pitchers in history. Dontrelle Willis had one great year. He was 10-15 last year, but on a bad team that doesn't tell much. His 5.17 ERA and career high in hits, walks, runs, earned runs, ERA, and home runs in 2007 don't bode well now that he is in the better offensive league.

AL East: Who cares? I am sick of the American League East. Screw the Yankees. Screw the Red Sox. Screw the rest of them for never being remotely good.

Wild Card: Whoever is second in the East.

ALDS: I don't care.
ALDS: I don't care.
ALCS: I don't care.

World Series: Mets over some poor, sad American League team in 4. Mets score a World Series record run total and hold the AL to no runs.