I Hate Mock Drafts, Have I Mentioned That?

In February I wrote about what a load of crap the NFL Mock Drafts are because the experts' predictions at that point were no different than any other well-informed fan's predictions would have been. Then over the next 2+ months, their picks sway in the prevailing winds and by the time the draft comes, they wind up nailing most of the picks...just like any of the rest of us would have. So they come off as "experts" for their predictions even though the first 5-6 iterations of predictions were dead wrong.

A lot changed since February: trades, injuries, drug issues (I guess they are ready for the NFL), Andre Smith got really fat, etc. Honestly, we have 2-5 years of game tape on these athletes, so how much difference should a 40-time in March make in determining their ability? If Kiper and McShay and the others were so smart and really could identify talent, wouldn't they have been able to take all these variables into account? Instead, they seem to just make their picks, then watch Sportscenter to see what has happened and then make new picks every other week. That isn't predicting. That isn't identifying talent. That is reporting on what has already been clearly established...an important skill, but not worthy of the pedestal that that bird-faced Kiper is on.

So being that the draft is this weekend, for argument's sake I will repost their picks from February 5 along with their correct picks. The prognosticators in question are ESPN's Mel Kiper, Scouts Inc.'s Todd McShay, Yahoo! Sports' National Football Post and Scout.com's Chris Steuber. However, Scout.com apparently realized that Stueber is a moron (see #1 pick), so they put another guy (Adam Kaplan) on it as well. Kiper's latest Mock Draft on ESPN required an Insider Subscription which I don't have because I don't really care, so I will use the latest one that is available to the rest of us peons. It is from April 11 and the headline for the newer Insider article is that Tyson Jackson is now #3, so what a good player he's become in the last two weeks while playing video games, buying new cars and having a giant, diamond "TJ" necklace made. Picks from February are shown first and their most recent available mock draft picks are second.

1. (Kiper) Matt Stafford, Matt Stafford
(McShay) Matt Stafford, Matt Stafford
(Yahoo!) Andre Smith, Matt Stafford
(Scout) Mark Sanchez, Mark Sanchez/Matt Stafford

2. (Kiper) Andre Smith, Jason Smith
(McShay) Jason Smith, Jason Smith
(Yahoo!) Eugene Monroe, Aaron Curry
(Scout) Michael Oher, Eugene Monroe/Jason Smith

3. (Kiper) Mark Sanchez, Aaron Curry
(McShay) Aaron Curry, Aaron Curry
(Yahoo!) Matt Stafford, Aaron Curry
(Scout) Aaron Curry, Matt Stafford/Aaron Curry

4. (Kiper) Michael Crabtree, Eugene Monroe
(McShay) B.J. Raji , Mark Sanchez
(Yahoo!) Michael Crabtree, Mark Sanchez
(Scout) Michael Crabtree, Jason Smith/Eugene Monroe

5. (Kiper) Aaron Curry, Michael Crabtree
(McShay) Everette Brown, B.J. Raji
(Yahoo!) Malcolm Jenkins, Michael Crabtree
(Scout) Malcolm Jenkins, Aaron Curry/Tyson Jackson

6. (Kiper) Jason Smith, Andre Smith
(McShay) Andre Smith, Eugene Monroe
(Yahoo!) Michael Oher, Eugene Monroe
(Scout) Everette Brown, Brian Orakpo/Andre Smith

7. (Kiper) Jeremy Maclin, Jeremy Maclin
(McShay) Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin
(Yahoo!) Jeremy Maclin, Jeremy Maclin
(Scout) Andre Smith, Michael Crabtree/Jeremy Maclin

8. (Kiper) Eugene Monroe, Brian Orakpo
(McShay) Eugene Monroe, Michael Crabtree
(Yahoo!) B.J. Raji, B.J. Raji
(Scout) Eugene Monroe, B.J. Raji/Darrius Heyward-Bey

9. (Kiper) Malcolm Jenkins, B.J. Raji
(McShay) Malcolm Jenkins, Andre Smith
(Yahoo!) Brian Orakpo, Brian Orakpo
(Scout) Brian Orakpo, Everette Brown/Brian Orakpo

10. (Kiper) Aaron Maybin, Aaron Maybin
(McShay) Jeremy Maclin, Michael Oher
(Yahoo!) Mark Sanchez, Aaron Maybin
(Scout) Matt Stafford, Michael Oher/Mark Sanchez

What do we learn so far? Scout.com's Stueber went to USC. Other than that, we know that Stafford will go first, Curry third and Maclin seventh. Other than that, we only know that this whole thing is a total crap-shoot, run by people who are clearly not good at their jobs. Kiper, McShay and Yahoo! changed seven of their picks after watching the Combine and individual workouts and Stueber was really just putting Sanchez first and then picking the rest out of hat all along anyway.

Granted, these are only their top 10's but the percentages are about the same for the rest of the mock drafts: these guys change a minimum of 70% of their picks as the spring rolls on, so why are their initial mock drafts even published? Don't they just reveal these people to be guessing?

Next week I will take a look at their correct predictions and see if even their final draft versions are worth paying attention to and also compare it to Kipers' and McShay's 2009 mock drafts that they filled out the day after the 2008 draft. That should be funny.

[This just in. McShay is apparently changing his picks by the minute leading up to the draft. Apparently B.J. Raji had the hiccups last week and McShay found out and re-ordered his board. 1-4 stayed the same, but 5-10 have all been changed since this morning. So 60% of what he said this morning was completely asinine, but now he has gotten it right. 5-10 are now Tyson Jackson, Andre Smith, Crabtree, Monroe, Raji, Orakpo.]

New Shea Welcomes Baseball, Mets' Outfielders' Gloves Do Not Welcome Baseballs

Monday was opening day at New Shea as the Mets hosted the Padres. Yes, this was the third time that the new stadium hosted a "first ever" baseball game, but as they said in Oceans 13, those first two were "soft openings." While watching the telecast on ESPN and keeping track of where I need to visit and what pictures I want to take when I go to the ballpark next month, I took notes on some of my thoughts on the game. So consider this a non-live live blog on the game.

There is no way in hell I am going to remember that Jody Gerut was the first player to get a hit and first to homer in a regular season game at New Shea. I guess that makes the trivia question more valuable down the line. Remembering that David Wright had the Mets' first hit will be easy. For the record, Luis Castillo had the Mets' first RBI.

I could have sworn that the Rays lost the World Series, but at their home opener Monday against the Yankees, they raised an AL East Champs banner, an AL Champs banner, and handed out rings. Rings? For losing? What is this, little league and everyone gets a trophy?

Orel Hershiser picked the Rays to beat the Mets to win the World Series this year. I knew I liked Orel. The L.A. Times' Bill Plaschke and Sports Illustrated picked the Mets to win it all. I like them too.

If Mets' G.M. Omar Minaya really only goes after Latin players, how come the Mets start four white dudes? I would venture that that is the most white starting players of any team in baseball. Daniel Murphy, David Wright, Ryan Church and Brian Schneider. And two of the five starting pitchers are white (John Maine and Mike Pelphrey). And three of their most significant off-season additions (J.J. Putz, Sean Green and Jeremy Reed). Crazy, Obama has been president for two months and I am already arguing someone is not racist because he employs a fair number of white people. Anyway, can we finally put the Minaya-only-signs-Latino-players argument to bed?

ESPN got the cameras set correctly for this game. When they aired a preseason game from here last week, they cameras weren't quite right. The outfield looked like Yosemite and the standard pitch-view camera was way too far zoomed out. I couldn't figure out of the ballpark was just bigger than everywhere else by 300-400 feet or if they just hadn't fine-tuned the production. Fortunately it was the former, though the Mets hit 3-4 balls to center field that looked gone by a mile that wound up being lazy fly balls to the front of the track. This park is good for baseball, good for pitchers, good for speedy slap hitters, but not good for casual fans who like homers.

Murphy officially got the first Bronx cheer in the new stadium. After dropping a can of corn Sunday that cost the Mets the game, he had another Monday that he put away easily. As the ball went up and the fans realized it was going to Murphy, you could hear them start to buzz louder and louder until he caught it and got a sarcastic standing ovation from some fans. Murphy had a big grin on his face as he tossed the ball back in. I like this guy. He hits, he learns his lessons (two hands this time) and he can laugh at himself.

I think I figured out why I am scared of Mel Kiper (besides that he looks like an angry bird). He has utterly no sense of humor despite that looking at him, you would have to assume he presents himself the way he does as a joke. He is terrifying. They now have this commercial for ESPN's NFL draft coverage where Mel and His Hair stand there looking dead-serious as they go over an imaginary draft board in front of them. It is like in Minority Report when Tom Cruise is moving around little video clips and files on a giant virtual computer screen/wall. Only Kiper is doing it with potential draftees' names and teams. But you get no sense he knows this is insane. You know he was standing on an empty sound stage and pretending to be doing things and they added in the graphics later, but he is so serious and intent. Does he really see those draft names when he is walking around in the real world? Is that commercial a visual representation of Mel Kiper's universe. I don't know the answers to any of these questions, but that man scares the hell out of me.

At the end of the 2008 season, on a Mets game broadcast, Gary Cohen and Keith Hernandez were talking about what it would be like to have Shea be gone. One question Hernandez asked was what would happen to all the cats that live in the stadium (like the famous black cat that cursed the 1969 Cubs during a game when it ran out onto the field, stopped in front of the Cubs dugout and stared them down). I remember Cohen saying not to worry about the cats and that they'd be fine. For those fans who were worried, fear not. They survived. One of them ran out onto the field and then disappear back into the stadium's bowels in the middle of the game. He was like a little blond cat-messenger. "It may be newer and shinier, but we still own this place."

I don't know what I expected from the Mets fans when Gary Sheffield would be introduced for the first time there. I did not expect a collective yawn. The cheer that went up from the 41,007 on hand when Shef pinch hit for Mike Pelfrey might as well have been for Alex Cora.

Trivia: first Mets' homer: David Wright. It is strange as a Mets fan to think that in a four inning bullpen-vs.-bullpen game, we've got 'em. In any of the last few years, I would have been thinking, "oh man, we need to score 4-5 more times to win this one."

Trivia: first player to also be an umpire and single-handedly win a game for a team, ruin the Opener of a new stadium, and ruin my life: David Eskstein. With a runner on third after Ryan Church pulled a Murphy and dropped a fly-ball for a three-base error, David Eckstein called a balk on Pedro Felciano, the home plate umpire deferred to Eckstein authority and confirmed the call. (Eventual game-winning) run scores. Does this ump ask for help on balls and strikes too? This is the circumstance I have ever seen a call be made under ("well, he's a veteran and he says he saw it, so I will call it") and one of the worst calls I have ever seen. I played this alleged balk over at least 10 times, even in slo-mo and there was no balk. Feliciano crouched over on the mound, came set, lifted his head maybe an inch or two, and Eckstein called the balk for faking a movement towards the plate and stopping. I know I am biased as hell here, but this call is absolute garbage and that ump should be ashamed at the way he called it because a player told him to. Feliciano's hips, shoulders, hands, arms, legs, nor feet moved. Just his head tilted up. I hope the league reviews it and the ump gets a fine or suspension given that it wound up deciding a game. If the Mets lose the division by one game, I am gonna lose it. Bruce Dreckman, we are no longer friends.

The Padres do not have a single left-handed pitcher. That has to cost them down the line once all the teams get a scouting report on all these no-name new guys they have in their pen. But for the time being, these guys are getting it done. I didn't understand why the Mets tossed Duaner Sanchez last month and watching him Monday made me still not see why. He's like mini-Frankie, goggles and everything.

Brian Schneiders' intro-music is by Creed. Ouch. Consider yourself knocked down a few pegs, Mr. Schneider. I can only hope he didn't choose this and someone way out of touch just threw it in there because they wanted "white-guy music" for him.

Heath Bell came out Monday and ripped ESPN for their East Coast bias, particularly their Mets-Red Sox-Yankees bias. I completely agree with him on that. They just made this big deal out of having a West Coast Sportscenter beginning at 10 P.M. Pacific time and besides the anchors being different, if you watched both shows, you'd never know the difference. The set is identical, the content is identical. How is this the West Coast Sportscenter? However, Bell also said that the Mets trading him away is one of his primary motivations. I am all for using something like that to fire you up, but the guy was traded three years ago. Move on.

Well there was no late-inning magic at the new park and the Mets now officially lost their Shea opener, Shea closer, and New Shea opener. And now I have to wait for two days before they play again to wash this mess out of my mind.

A Draft Worth Mocking

It is NFL Mock Draft season. If you go to any of the major sports sites (Yahoo! and ESPN are the two top visited sites), you will find NFL Mock drafts crafted by experts in their fields that attempt to say who would draft whom if the draft happened that day.

In June, I wrote about the NBA Mock Drafts: "I saw a headline online for Chad Ford's NBA Mock Draft Version 6.0. Seriously? 6? How many times can you openly admit that you were totally wrong and still be considered publishable, let alone an expert?"

So what fields are these people experts in that make them qualified to discuss the draft? Are they former coaches? General managers? Scouts? Players? From what I can tell, ESPN's Todd McShay and Mel Kiper (pictured) are "draft experts" because they like college football and watch the draft every year.

So all of these folks come up with their definitive lists of which teams will draft which players and then the next time someone sneezes, they blow the whole thing up and start over. McShay even said as much in his latest column explaining that the college all-star games drastically changed the outlook for a lot of people, and that the upcoming individual workouts will probably make his current picks irrelevent again. So why do these people have jobs?

If they are experts at evaluating talent, they would be hired by a team to do so and make a lot more money, for one thing. And for another, wouldn't 2-4 years of games be good enough evidence for who has the talent that a diving catch in an all-star game or a good 40 time in a workout wouldn't really sway anyone too much?

The best part is that Kiper, McShay and others always include a paragraph on why that team will pick that player, so you get to see their reasoning. It often makes great sense, but it is funny to have them completely jump tracks and have completely new reasoning for different picks every week or so. Doesn't anyone see that if you constantly have to correct your errors, you are probably making too many errors for your word to be taken seriously?

For argument's sake, here are the top 10 Mock Draft picks as of today, February 4, for some of the big names in Professional Guessing:
1 Lions - Matt Stafford (Kiper, McShay), Andre Smith (Yahoo!), Mark Sanchez (Scout.com)
2 Rams - Andre Smith (Kiper), Jason Smith (McShay), Eugene Monroe (Yahoo!), Michael Oher (Scout.com)
3 Chiefs - Mark Sanchez (Kiper), Aaron Curry (McShay, Scout.com), Matt Stafford (Yahoo!)
4 Seahawks - Michael Crabtree (Kiper, Yahoo!, Scout.com), B.J. Raji (McShay)
5 Browns - Aaron Curry (Kiper), Everette Brown (McShay), Malcolm Jenkins (Yahoo!, Scout.com)
6 Bengals - Jason Smith (Kiper), Andre Smith (McShay), Michael Oher (Yahoo!), Everette Brown (Scout.com)
7 Raiders - Jeremy Maclin (Kiper, Yahoo!), Michael Crabtree (McShay), Andre Smith (Scout.com)
8 Jaguars - Eugene Monroe (Kiper, McShay, Scout.com), B.J. Raji (Yahoo!)
9 Packers - Malcolm Jenkins (Kiper, McShay), Brian Orakpo (Yahoo!, Scout.com)
10 49ers - Aaron Maybin (Kiper), Jeremy Maclin (McShay), Mark Sanchez (Yahoo!), Matt Stafford (Scout.com)

So that settles that. I guess we don't need to go through the whole mess of holding the draft since it is so clear cut among the experts as to who will choose whom.

The frustrating thing about all this is that in the end, Kiper (and likely others) will nail something like 28-29 of the 32 first round picks and likely a good amount of second round picks as well. But who wouldn't be able to do that if it was their only job? If the week before the draft, I spent 8-10 hours a day studying who needs what and what players were available, I could get 28 picks right too. And I am a moron.

So if they all admit that their current rankings are crap, why does anyone care about them? And if the picks aren't accurate until the day before the draft, who cares if they picked right? And when did this become something we care about anyway? Can you bet on it? Did finding out yesterday that the Giants will draft Knowshon Moreno (thanks Yahoo!) make me feel better about losing to the God-forsaken Eagles? And when it winds up not being Moreno, won't I just end up being pissed because I had read what a perfect pick it is?

In related recruiting news, UCLA's incoming class is being ranked ahead of USC's after yesterday's signing day by some folks. This means nothing really since UCLA is a few recruiting classes away from playing in USC's neighborhood (and by a few, I mean around 10). But it is funny to think what Pete Carroll must be thinking this morning. It took Rick Neuheisal one crappy season to have the recruiting pull to out-recruit Carroll (the undisputing recruiting master) or at least to make it a debate.

A Vacation From Obsession

This past weekend I went to Death Valley to see the sights, which to the surprise of apparently many people, there are many. We camped at the aptly named Furnace Creek. It is always an interesting perspective-builder to do trips like this right in the middle of what you would normally consider a really important time at home.

Being a big sports fan, I definitely thought twice about missing the Mets-Braves series, the NFL draft (not to watch it, but just to know where USD's Josh Johnson went), the NBA and NHL playoffs, regular season finales in college lacrosse, my college baseball team is in the midst of a 16 game win-streak, and the epic battle to find who has the worst contract in baseball (Andruw Jones or Barry Zito). [Update: Andruw Jones]

Being out in the desert with basically no radio, definitely no TV or internet, no cell phones (besides in this one parking space in front of the general store, according to one local), no electricity and not even a shower (except one for $5 at the "hotel" down the road), it did not take long for my sports-related concerns to just melt away (perhaps because it was freaking hot). It was nice to get out there and realize that while I would like to watch, what the Mets do against the Braves in April isn't going to make or break them, let alone me.

Now, I am not saying I would do this during the Super Bowl, but it always seems that every weekend is the biggest weekend in sports in ages. Going out and doing something else I liked to do makes it easy to see that rarely is a game really that important. However, if we were doing something my wife wanted us to do and I didn't, then these games this weekend would have been life-alteringly important!

I must admit I did cheat once. We had just gotten back from the "Racetrack" and it was over 100 degrees at about 5 p.m. on Saturday. At this point, whatever cold drinks we had had in the cooler since Thursday were no longer cold, so we went to the saloon and sat in the AC...and I watched a little of the Celtics' game. Surprise: an NBA playoff game was boring!

If you too were out of the loop this weekend, here's what you missed: NFL Draft occurred, but nothing interesting actually happened besides Mel Kiper's hair making thousands of children scream in terror. The Suns salvaged a win against the Spurs but will lose in game 5. Jason Kidd got really, really lucky that no one socked him in the face after a very dirty foul and will likely not be very lucky in game 5 when he is eliminated and will likely spend a lot of time on the ground. Zito took the lead in the worst contract race (ERA of 7.53 and 0-6 vs. Jones who is now up to .159 with 1 HR and 4 RBI in 25 games). If you like boxing, don't miss the Flyers-Habs Game 3 tonight.

As soon as it is ready, I will post a photo slide show of some of the highlights from our trip. And finally, a post I wrote last week (on baseball not punishing steroid users) was featured on Rotohog.com. Please go there and leave a message so I can get paid million and millions of dollars.