USD Was Robbed, The Cubs Can't Buy One, And Raider Fans Steal Things

Similar to how the New York Giants won the Super Bowl and returned the next season with a chip on their shoulders after being written off as repeat-contenders and picked third in their own division, my alma mater's men's basketball team has been slighted after winning their conference tournament.

The San Diego Toreros knocked off two top 25-ranked teams (St. Mary's and Gonzaga) to win the West Coast Conference Tournament and then another when they beat UConn in the Tourney before falling in a heart-breaker to fellow Cinderella Western Kentucky.

So coming into this season, you might think that USD would get some respect in the national polls, or at least within the Conference! Rather, they were picked to finish third in the league and received just 1 vote for the AP top 25. Granted this was the first vote in school history, but it is still something of a slight. After all, they did not graduate a single player, nor did they lose their coach, and they added two top recruits (one of whom - Roberto Manfra - scored 21-points on 9-of-10 shooting in their season opener last weekend).

They are clearly not national title contenders, but for fans of college basketball, USD is one to watch this year (which won't be difficult since 15 of their games will be televised).

On Saturday, my wife and I watched Fever Pitch (which is a pretty good romantic comedy to fall back on if you are stuck having to watch a romantic comedy) and afterwards I was explaining why the "Curse of the Bambino" was such a big deal and how long it had been, etc. She said that it is just like that with her San Jose Sharks because they can't get out of the first round of the playoffs, and I didn't bother explaining that the Sharks have only existed for 17-years so it is not exactly the same thing.

But we got to talking about long losing streaks and curses in sports and of course, I mentioned the Cubs. I told her that they haven't won now in over 100-years. She asked if they'd ever been close and I said a few times, but mostly they have just stunk. Her response to this cosmically-cursed, haunted, agonizing situation was simply, "Why don't they do something about that?" I guess they just never thought about that - stop whining and go win something!

Finally, while I was in the San Jose airport last night (missing the freaking Giants game, but I am not bitter), I was watching a little boy who must have been about 1-year-old sitting in his stroller playing the the straps of the purse of the woman next to him. After a minute or two, I realized that he didn't know this woman, but he was just playing with her purse. I thought it was a cute moment until I moved up in line and got a better look at what was going on.

The kid had a Raiders' shirt on and I couldn't help but wonder how early Raider fans start teaching their kids to be criminals, if this 1-year-old was already working on purse-snatching.

Most Overrated: Cubs, Torre Or Francona?

The baseball playoffs are not exactly going as I had hoped. For one thing, Omar Minaya is ruining my life and the Mets are not in the playoffs. For another, the only teams I don't like keep winning.

Although there are two sides to the coin that was the Dodgers-Cubs series. On the one hand, the freaking Dodgers (who let's face it, are a crappy team having a good week) won the series and are in the NLCS. This makes me sad because it has been fun getting to tease obnoxious Dodger fans by saying, "At least the Mets have won a series in the last two decades." No more fun there. On the other hand, I can now pretty much expect to stop reading and hearing about the Mets "collapse" this year because of what the Cubs have done. Sure the Mets led the East by a few games and were out of the Wild Card race entering September. Sure the Phillies went nuts and passed the Mets, while the Mets ran down the Brewers before tiring at the end and getting passed up in the last two days. But the Cubs had the best record in the league and were a sure thing to make the World Series since Spring Training. Thank you Cubbies!

Joe Torre is getting a ton of credit for the Dodgers' late success, as he always got in New York, and while I like Torre a lot, I think it is pretty unfounded that he is considered such a managerial genius. His records on teams that did not have the highest payroll that year (including this year) is pretty poor. When he won in New York, he had the perfect teams: youth/experience/defense/pitching/chemistry all rolled together. As his payrolls grew, his players got more talented, his chemistry waned and his teams couldn't win it all.

So he came to L.A. and took over an extraordinarily average team. They were inconsequential for most of the season and reports started to leak out that he and third base coach Larry Bowa were not happy with the Dodgers because the team stunk. Apparently they were unaware that it was their job to do something about it. Then they got Manny Ramirez (and Casey Blake) dumped into their laps and the team suddenly surges, with Torre suddenly a genius again. The common denominator between their pathetic first half and their torrid September was Torre and the everyone but Manny basically. So why is Torre getting credit for the change?

I think managers get far too much credit when things go well. Really what do they do besides get out of the way of guys who get hot? Pitching coaches and hitting coaches deserve credit/blame more often than managers because they tinkering with people's games. They are instructing. How many managers actually do anything during the course of a game that is not by the book? Pitching changes, pinch-hitters, when to steal, etc. It is all predetermined and everyone in the building knows when they're coming. But managers can make unusual decisions which either make them lucky geniuses or get them fired.

In Game 3 of the Angels-Red Sox series Terry Francona made a very strange move. Francona is considered a great manager, but he has also benefited by spectacular pitching and Manny Ramirez/David Ortiz in their primes. A horse could have managed these teams. The score was tied in the eleventh, and Ortiz was on first base. The series-winning run was 270 feet from home in the form of a nearly 300-pound man. Clearly the right move was to pinch-run, then you can either steal second and score on a single (like how the Sox beat the Yanks in THE series), or bunt him over and score on a single, which was less likely since their had the heart of their line-up up, and for some strange reason, logical decision-making is thrown out the window when the guy hitting has a 1 in 15 chance of hitting a homer (and incidentally, a 3 in 4 chance of making an out). Even if you do not steal or bunt, a pinch-runner could go first-to-third on a base hit, and Ortiz could not.

But Francona didn't pinch run for the portly Ortiz. Maybe he didn't have a deep enough bench left. Then it was first and second with two outs...certainly you pinch run for him in this scenario! Screw the bench, the game ends with a speedy runner on second and any hit...what is the bench being saved for if not a game-winning hit!? But no pinch runner came on.

Then Mike Lowell walked and the bases were loaded with Ortiz at third with two outs. Not much need for a pinch-runner for Ortiz now. Even he could score from third on a ball into the outfield. So out comes a pinch-runner...for the guy on first!

I understand that Lowell is slow and has a bad hip so he's really slow, and having a speedy runner there makes it harder for the Angels to have an easy out at second on a ball in the infield. That is not a bad play. But can a fast guy at first really be expected to beat out a ball to the short-stop? And if he does, won't they just throw to first for an easy out anyway? And why was Ortiz running for himself all that time if you had a pinch-runner to waste all along?

With speed on first, the pitcher has to respect it and worry about it and throw over and be distracted. With Ortiz there, no problem. With speed on second, the pitcher is even more stressed because he knows any base hit means the series is over.

You can't say it actually cost the Sox the game because Ortiz did not get thrown out at the plate, or make a base-running blunder to end the inning. But it definitely changed the situation for the pitcher and made it easier for him to relax and focus on the guy at the plate. Terrible move by Francona and the Sox eventually lost in the next inning.

Being A Recovering Alcoholic And A Baseball Fan Couldn't Be Easy

On Wednesday, I wrote about how the Mets game from Tuesday night felt like one of those turning point games that might be the driving force that pushes the team. I don't think this team is winning a World Series unless the bullpen starts to channel John Franco (that is to say, loading the bases is fine...giving up a bases-clearing triple is not). But it did look like they would at least overcome the September 2007 demons and get back into the playoffs.

Then on Wednesday night they came out and blew a four run lead and left the winning run on third base after he hit a leadoff triple in the ninth. In fact, they had men on third with no outs in each of the last three innings. Ouch. And of course the Brewers won on a walk-off homer to tie up the Wild Card race. Ouch! To say the least, I did not want to acknowledge that any of this happened, let alone write about sports yesterday, so I took a day to regroup.

And the funny thing is that now that the Mets and Brewers have both played one more game, and each won theirs in spectacular fashion, it is painfully clear that all this magic and heroics really do have nothing to do with what happens the next day. Sure they make folks feel more confident, and confidence is crucial, but so it hitting and pitching and fielding.

The Brewers had a come-from-behind win and won it on a walk-off grand slam in the 10th. Their second walk-off homer in two games. You don't think they feel like a team of destiny? The Mets had their amazing win on Tuesday and then last night had Ryan Church score on the strangest play at the plate in history to complete a three-run comeback. As a rainstorm that had already causes a game in DC to be cancelled water-logged Shea Stadium, they played on into the 9th when Carlos Beltran hit a game-winning shot off the glove of the first baseman that stopped dead in the soaked grass that the right fielder couldn't get to before the winning run scored. They earned a split with the best team in the League. You think they aren't feeling good about themselves? Does Destiny have a favorite?

This is all kinda like how fans pray for their teams, or athletes pray for themselves before events - like God is only listening to one side of the argument. Granted, when it is Boston College playing Miami, God clearly has a side. And He apparently does not like Arod either so whatever team he is on, God's on the other team. (greatest player ever perhaps...not a sniff of a World Series title).

There is only one way that the idea of Destiny intervening can be upheld this season. And that is that the Mets and Brewers both make the playoffs, meaning the Mets have to make up a game on Philly in the last three days. After all, the Rays are the AL East winners, the Yankees are playing golf, and the Twins are about to complete a miracle comeback to win the Central despite having traded away Johan Santana among others in the off season. So amazing things happen. Of course, God doesn't watch American League baseball, so you can't blame it on Him.

The funny thing in all of this is that as a fan, I have no idea what to do with myself from day to day. Wednesday night I felt like I had been kicked in the stomach and yesterday I couldn't even watch ESPN because I hated seeing the ticker show that the Wild Card was tied. Now the Mets pick up one more win, and even though they are still in the exact same position - tied - I feel like they are sure to get it done. I guess the easiest way to calm myself on this rollercoaster is to take solace in the fact that I am not a USC fan.

40-Year Old Curse Rears Its Head At Shea

In Tuesday's Mets-Cubs game, the Mets trailed 2-0 in the 5th. A loss here and they could have found themselves out of the race in the East and tied for the wild card. David Murphy had just been hit by a pitch and the Mets' pitcher, Johan Santana came up to bat. Santana first showed bunt but wound up swinging away. He hit a slow roller right back to the pitcher, but the bat broke and the head of the bat went bounding back up the middle with the ball.

Needless to say, the pitcher couldn't field the ball and jumped out of the way of the bat and left the grounder for the short stop to field (still in time for a double play). That's where it got weird.

During the course of a season, fans (and likely many players) see so many moments that as they happen, seem to be potential turning points. Some turn up, some down. We often see unusual, bizarre, or big hero/goat plays as the ones that mean something significant. Objectively, you could pretty easily say that very few of them really has the impact that we subjectively imbue them with. In fact, a skeptic would argue that there is no such thing as momentum or turning points or luck or curses. But if the players think there is, then who know what kind of effects they could have?

For instance, look at last year's New York Giants. At this point, the story of the season is pretty well documented but why is it that that team seemingly had so many important turning points on the way to an historic championship? Their defense had been run through like a tissue on a train track for the first two-and-a-half games until suddenly they held on first and goal from their own one-yard line against the Redskins and it all turned around. Then when they sat on the brink of missing the playoffs, a hurricane seemingly hit Buffalo and they pulled off an ugly win on the road in week 16. Then they went against convention and played their starters in a loss to the Pats in week 17. Then improbable play after improbable play happened, capped off by perhaps the most improbable play in NFL history...and suddenly they were the champs.

But why did Destiny choose them? Was it karma punishing Tiki Barber for retiring early and bad-mouthing his former team and quarterback (who would wind up winning the Super Bowl MVP)? Was it that the team didn't fall apart and bicker after that bad start, but rather banded together and played for each other and not for themselves? Was it Jeremy Shockey and Mathias Kiwanuka going down, Plaxico Burress playing hurt and Barber not being there that forced so many others to go above and beyond? Was it a final reward to end Michael Strahan's career? Was it favorable scheduling and good old fashioned dumb luck?

If after about week 10, you had asked fans of all 32 teams if their team might be the team with the magic - the team who had the right turning points, I imagine you would get a yes from no less than 20 of them. No doubt right now there are Dolphin fans envisioning a Super Bowl win this year after last week's demolition of the Pats.

It is the same way with baseball, only the season is so long that any rational fan (yes, I realize that that is a contradiction in terms) would admit that a play like what happened to Johan Santana last night would mean nothing if it happened in June. But on September 23?

In the last month, I have seen about 20 turning points for the Mets. On September 1st, they were red hot and had opened their largest division lead of the season. This would avenge the collapse of last September. Suddenly the wheels fell off the already shaky bullpen and no lead was safe. They lost two in-a-row including the first half of a double header in New York against the Phillies. Their lead was gone. Then they won the night cap and crushed Washington twice. They they lost a series to the lowly Braves and scored 3 runs in two games against those same Nationals that they'd scored 23 runs in two games against the week before. Then Jerry Manuel joked that Johan Santana would throw 170 pitches so we wouldn't have to see the bullpen and everyone was laughing and the team won three in-a-row and everything was ok again. Then they couldn't beat Atlanta again and the Cubs came to town with the best record in the league and beat the Mets in New York with a scrub starter. They were 2.5 out in the East, and just a game up on the re-awakening Brewers for the Wild Card.

Then Johan Santana's bat broke and fended off not one, but two Cubs from picking up the ball. The bat actually danced along with the ball like some bounding black cat, scaring away the pitcher and then actually hitting the ball again and forcing the short stop to abandon hope of getting an out. Was it the ghost of the black cat that ran out onto the same field against these same Cubs that marked the turning point for those Mets 39 years ago?

If there is to be one last fall of Miracles at Shea, that play will be where the magic started. The savior traded for who would erase the memory of last September stepped onto the mound to erase the memory of last weekend. And he hit the ball that miraculously didn't result in a double play. And then he was the one who crossed the plate after David Wright's two-run single to tie the game. And then you just knew he wasn't going to let anyone else score against him that night.

And on a play where Johan Santana got two hits, something truly improbable may have happened. Maybe not. If the Giants are any example, it seems that one amazing, miraculous, lucky, strange play is not really enough to make any difference in the long run. It takes a run of them strung together either by divine intervention or an overwhelming confluence of effort, ability and timing. Maybe last night's play will spark a big run, but then aren't Brewers fans saying the same thing about Prince Fielder's walk-off homer? As they say: Momentum is tomorrow's starting pitcher, so if Oliver Perez hits for the cycle tonight, maybe we will have a better indication of how things are going to go.

Play Ball!

I fully understand the logic that there are 161 games left in the season and nothing that happened today has any bearing on what will happen in October (unless a race is decided by one game). However, I could not care less about this logic and say that there are some definitive truths we can take away from Opening Day: God hates the Yankees, the Cubs may go another 100 years, and the Mets will win it all, being three of the more prominent ones.

I watched four games on Opening day: Royals at Tigers, Giants at Dodgers, Angels at Twins, and Astros at Padres. Besides hating the Dodgers, I don't really care about any of these teams, but it's baseball, so who cares? I did notice quite a few things from around the league.

-It really is amazing that someone named Reggie Willits is white.
-The Johan Santana trade is going to be very good for both teams. Santana threw a 7-inning, 3-hitter for a 7-2 win for the Mets. Carlos Gomez was 2 for 3 with 2 steals and 2 runs scored in a 3-2 win for the Twins.
-There's always next year for the Cubs. This season marks the 100th anniversary of their last World Series win. They are a National League favorite. They opened at home against Divisional rival Milwaukee. Everything seemed great: Carlos Zambrano and Carlos Marmol combined for a 9-innings of shutout ball, and their franchise hero Kerry Wood came in in the 9th to hold the Brewers so the vaunted offense could win it in the 9th. Let's just say that after Wood's first game as a closer, his ERA is 27.00. Cubs came back to tie in in the bottom of the 9th, only to lose in the 10th. Could any single pre-All Star Game loss have been more painful?
-CBS news anchor Paul Magers said today that being a Cubs fan is like having a chronic illness.
-Miguel Cabrera is absolutely huge and is no longer a cute little chubby kid. Good trade Marlins, thank you.
-I feel bad for Reds fans. They hired Dusty Baker which means they are not going to win much (as though there was any question about that anyway). But at least that gets him off my TV all summer.
-Tom Glavine paid for his sabotage of the Mets by returning to the damned Braves and launching them towards an 0-2 start. Glavine only made it 5 innings and the Braves lost in the 13th inning. My favorite non-Met Xavier Nady went 4 for 7 with 2 home runs, 4 runs scored and 4 rbi. The Braves may not win a game this year.
-I am not sure which big-time pitcher I am more happy the Mets missed out on: Darren Driefort or Barry Zito. The Giants may not win a game this year either and I am not even kidding this time (sorry Josh).
-What stopped the Yankees from their magnificent final Opening Day in the House the Ruth Built? God. The game rained out. God hates the Yankees.
-Scott Schoeneweis and Jorge Sosa prevented two inherited runners from scoring. And they faced the other team's 3 and 4 hitters. But it was the Marlins' 3 and 4 hitters. But still! Mets win World Series.
-I hate the guy with the speed gun at Dodger games with the white hat. Screw that guy.
-The NY Giants were back at the Giants' facilities today after nearly two months off. The last two months have been a perfect storm of sports happiness for me: Giants win best Super Bowl of all time, USD upsets St. Mary's, Gonzaga and UConn, Mets win opener. Sure the Mets game is less important but after last September/October, I will never take a win for granted again.

I have lots of things to say about the Dodgers' Coliseum debacle, but no time. My last shift (during which I generally shirked my duties, as this posting attests to) at CBS is over and I am going home. But seriously, if you're hiring, email me. Seriously. No joke.

National League Predictions

While I do not recognize the Red Sox and A's two game miniseries as part of the regular season because it took place in the wrong hemisphere, Baseball is basically here. ESPN has the Season Opener on Saturday night, many teams play Sunday and everyone is in by Monday. My fantasy league has drafted, Sports Illustrated has released their Major League Baseball preview (though I haven't received it because my mailman steals things), and Mark Prior is injured. So it's time to look at the season ahead.

It would have been fun to make 86 predictions for the upcoming season, in honor of the 1986 Mets, but who has time for that? Plus, I'd end up having to start predicting some really obscure, pointless facts (like by how many games the Dodgers miss the playoffs - 6+). So I will stick to the stuff that matters, first the National League:

NL East: Mets - The offense will be decent, not a juggernaut like the last few years were expected to be. But the pitching will be stellar. Pedro is the new 14-15 win, 4.00-4.50 Pedro, but that is fine for a #4 starter. John Maine is a front line starter now despite that he was undrafted in my fantasy league (I promptly dumped Todd Helton for him). Perez was a consistent and consistently good throughout 2007. No reason to think he won't be again. El Duque will be El Middle Reliever. Pelfrey is the #5 and will be good for 10-15 wins depending on run support. Santana is the best pitcher in baseball and he is going to a pitcher's park in a pitcher's league. ERA will be sub 3.00 and he'll win 20 and the Cy Young. The starters are conservatively good for 70 wins. An average relief staff can scrape together 25 more, and this isn't an average staff. 95-67

NL Central: Cubs - Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Rich Hill are a solid starting three, plus Leiber, Marquis and Demptster will fill out the rotation. Their offense is very good with Ryan Theriot and Alfonso Soriano leading off, and Fukodome may be fantastic (or he may be Kaz Matsui). The Central generally stinks and this team will feast on the biggest, weakest division. 97-65

NL West: Giants - Just kidding. Diamondbacks - No team in the league has the front-line starting pitching of the DBacks. The Dodgers are the sexy pick, with all these young guys and especially with Torre, but I don't buy it. They were a fourth place team last year. They have no track record of success, and are known more for choking late that anything else. Is Torre enough of a motivator to fix it? Perhaps. But what have the Yankees been known for of late? Choking. The Rockies were magical but there is simply no way that every single player has a career year again. It took a 20+ game win streak to get them to the postseason (and through most of the postseason)...you can't rely on that. The Padres have Mark Prior. The Dbacks are like a secret out there in Phoenix. But Brandon Webb and Dan Haren are a lights out 1-2 combo with Micah Owings and The Old Unit bringing up the rear. Upton, Young and Byrnes may be the best defensive outfield in baseball. The West is very even and the win totals will be low (thus hurting their Wild Card chances). 92-70

NL Wild Card: Braves - It was fun while it lasted, the Braves are good again. Chipper doesn't need to be the man with Tiexiera there and Andruw Jones is gone which is the best thing they could hope for in the off season. Glavine will probably turn into Nolan Ryan since he was a saboteur on the Mets the whole damned-time anyway. Smoltz is Smoltz. Hudson is awesome. Chuck James is decent. Hampton sucks but he'll get hurt so he won't hurt the team. Kelly Johnson, Mark Kotsay, Larry Jones, Mark Tiexiera, Matt Diaz, Brian McCann Jeff Franceour is a tough top 7. Their pitching is either too old or too young to match up with the Mets, but they will hover around the 90-win mark. 90-72

NLDS: Cubs over Braves in 6 - Zambrano beats Hudson twice. Chipper flops. Soriano strikes out at curve balls a lot. Tiexiera is a one man show, but the Cubs balanced offense eats up the tired, old Braves pitching.

NLDS: Mets over DBacks in 4 - Santana throws four perfect games in the series, David Wright pulls a Carlos Beltran and hits 7 home runs.

NLCS: Mets over Cubs in 7 - Cubs go up 3 games to none. Steve Bartman, wearing a Jim Kelly helmet, black socks, a Babe Ruth jersey, Brian Leetch's skates, Arizona Cardinals shoulder pads, Jim Brown's costume gun from The Dirty Dozen, and Turk Wendell's necklace, brings a copy of Madden, a Sports Illustrated with Kerry Wood on the cover, and a billy goat to game 4 so all curses can be broken simultaneously and the universe gets angry. Mets win four straight.

I will have the AL winners and World Series champ (take a guess) soon.