Punting On Third

NCAA Tourney 2011: Nicole's Crystal Ball (Part 4)

2011-04-06T16:16:00.001-07:00

Third Round

Ohio State over George Mason: "Ooh, I really like the masons. 1 vs. 8 though. Fat guy vs. Free Masons. Fat people make me feel better." Result: correct [Note: The "fat guy" is the Buckeye mascot.]

~~Clemson~~ over ~~Princeton~~: "Tigers vs. Tigers! But Clementines are cute and yummy." Result: incorrect, both teams had lost in the 2nd round.

Syracuse over ~~Xavier~~: "Professor X vs. Jeff. 6 vs. 3. Jeff gets a little help; let's have him go one more." Result: incorrect, Syracuse lost to Marquette in this game. [Note: Jeff is a former co-worker, Jeff Suss.]

North Carolina over ~~Georgia~~: "Upsetting UNC? I don't like Peaches that much." Result: correct [Note: "Peaches" is a friend, Andy Etters, who is from Georgia.]

Duke over Michigan: "Ooh, Wolverines...but it's 1 vs. 8. Who did you pick? [Duke] That dude coaches the Olympics. Yes to Duke." Result: correct

Arizona over Texas: "[In Will Farrell's George W. Bush voice:] 'Don't mess with Texas.' Wildcat vs. a longhorn. That's an interesting fight. The wildcat is quicker; wildcats would win. We've gotta start getting more serious about this mascot thing." Result: correct

Connecticut over ~~Missouri~~: "Connecticut! It's our street! And you were born there. Ooh, that means first boyfriend vs. second. But I married the second one. Boom!" Result: correct

San Diego State over ~~Penn State~~: "San Diego is a whale's vagina. Look it up; it's in the Geneva Convention." Result: correct [Note: These are paraphrases of two different lines from two different Will Farrell movies. Between these, the Texas line and her obsession with cougars because of Talladega Nights, she's basing most of her picks on his comedy in one way or another.]

Kansas over Illinois: "1 vs. 9. 1 always goes at least two rounds." Result: correct

~~Vanderbilt~~ over Morehead State: "V." Result: incorrect, Vanderbilt had lost in the second round.

~~Georgetown~~ over ~~St. Peter's~~: "Aren't they just bulldogs with spikey collars? Do that one." Result: incorrect, both teams had lost in the second round.

Notre Dame over ~~Texas A&M~~: "Notre Dame!" Result: incorrect, Notre Dame lost of Florida State in this game.

Pittsburgh over Butler: "Panther is close to cougar. Although Pittsburgh does have an NFL team. [I told her that Butler is near Indianapolis, which also has an NFL team.] Both have NFL teams, but a cougar would kill a bulldog." Result: incorrect, Butler won this game.

Wisconsin over ~~Utah State~~: "Double-U beats U." Result: correct

BYU over Gonzaga: "Cougs! [As Farrell's Ricky Bobby:] 'How can I control my heartbeat!?'" Result: correct

UCLA over Florida: "Ooh, that's a tough one. Go Sharks, but a gator vs. a bear? Now that would be awesome. [As Jim Halpert:] 'What kind of bear is best?' Bear is best." Result: incorrect, Florida won this game. [She said "Go Sharks" because the Florida fans do the same arm-movement-chomp as San Jose Sharks fans.]

(Results: 9-7 but with seven-of-eight elite eight teams left, three-of-four final four, one finalist, and her champion)

Sweet Sixteen

Ohio State over ~~Clemson~~: "Oranges can't beat fat people. The fat people would just eat them." Result: incorrect, Kentucky won this game.

North Carolina over ~~Syracuse~~: "We already helped Jeff for two rounds. And I like blue." Result: correct

Duke over Arizona: [As Farrell in Old School:] "You're my boy, Blue!" Result: incorrect, Arizona won this game.

Connecticut over San Diego State: "Whoa, this is interesting. Alright, let's play this out. Aztecs vs. Huskies. San Diego vs. Connecticut so where we met vs. where you were born. San Diego has an NFL team that I don't like. Wait, is this 'UConn'? I love UConn!" Result: correct

Kansas over ~~Vanderbilt:~~ "Jayhawk is like an Indian, right? [It's a bird.] Oh. Well a Commodore is like a pirate. And that guy from Pirates was a total sissy, so Kansas is more legit. More American. And they're the 1-seed." Result: correct [Note: I assume the guy from Pirates is Johnny Depp.]

~~Notre Dame~~ over ~~Georgetown~~: "Both Catholics, oh shoot. The numbers are 2 and 6. And I've been to Notre Dame. [We've been to Georgetown, too.] Yeah, but I was in Notre Dame's gym. And I was the mascot there. [Actually, I was the mascot there. You were a cheerleader.] Shut up. And don't write that. It's St. Patrick's Day; Irish win." Result: incorrect, VCU beat Florida State in this game. [Note: All of that happened in the 2000 Women's NCAA Tournament when USD played at Notre Dame in the first round. Nicole was our school's mascot but stepped in for an ill cheerleader for that game and I went as the mascot so I could go to the game for free during spring break. But I'm gonna be in big trouble when she sees I wrote that.]

Wisconsin over ~~Pittsburgh~~: "Cougars vs. Beavers? Please. [Actually it's Panthers and Badgers.] Whatever. I hate Pittsburgh; the Steelers suck and that guy needs a haircut. And my cousin, Blake, went to Wisconsin and he needs good news." Result: incorrect, Butler won this game. [Note: I'm not sure the guy who needs a haircut is, but I assume Troy Polamalu. Blake was in a terrible car accident a few months ago and is recovering.]

BYU over ~~UCLA~~: "Oh man, a coug vs. a bear! Cougs. I have to be consistent." Result: incorrect, Florida won this game. [Note: Consistent with what? They're the only cougars in the tournament.]

(Results: 3-5, with one Final Four team, one finalist and her champion left)

Elite Eight

~~Ohio State~~ over North Carolina: "What city is Ohio State in? [Columbus] I do like Christopher Columbus. But I like UNC's blue. But our frisbee team is Flip Cup and we're red. They're both public. I like Duke better than Carolina." Result: incorrect, Kentucky won this game.

Connecticut over ~~Duke~~: "Whoa. That's hard. I love Duke. And UConn's blue too. And it's Connecticut. 1 vs. 3. That's close. What did you pick? [Duke] But you're from there and we live on it. Blue Devils and Huskies. I picked Duke last year, so not Duke again." Result: correct

~~Notre Dame~~ over Kansas: "Notre Dame." Result: incorrect, VCU won this game.

~~BYU~~ over ~~Wisconsin~~: "Cougs." Result: incorrect, Butler beat Florida in this game.

(Results: 1-3, with one finalist and her champion still left)

Final Four

Connecticut over ~~Ohio State~~: [Long pause while considering this one closely.] "UConn has a cooler name. And we live on Connecticut Street, and you were born there. And all Ohio has going for them is flip cup and fat people." Result: correct
~~Notre Dame~~ over ~~BYU~~: "Catholics vs. Mormons. Blowout!" Result: incorrect, Butler beat VCU in this game.
(Results: 1-1, with her champion still left)

Championship Game
Connecticut over Notre Dame: "I really like Notre Dame, but I just can't do it. The NFL really pissed me off. So UConn." Result: correct [Note: While Notre Dame is not in an NFL city, it is in Indiana, home of the Colts.]

Tie-Breaker: Championship Score
"Connecticut will get 78 because you were born there in that year. And Notre Dame will get 73 because 7 and 3 are the holy numbers. 7 sins and the Trinity! So 78-73."

Some new patterns have emerged. Any vague connection to any Will Farrell movie or line is usually worth one or two picks. This used to just be for Talladega Nights, but it seems to now be all of them.

Notre Dame is her favorite school, for sure. Second is Duke and she obviously is starting to like Connecticut a lot too.

Part 1: Results through the Round of 64

Part 2: Statistical Comparisons of Nicole's system vs. AP, RPI, seeds and Sagarin through Round of 32

Part 3: Nicole's Round of 64 Pick

Part 4: Nicole's Round of 32 through Championship Picks

Part 5: Final Statistical Results (coming Thursday)

Tourney Bonus Coverage: The Jim Nantz-pun-o-meter game (coming soon)

NCAA Tourney 2011: Nicole's Crystal Ball (Part 3)

2011-04-05T14:11:00.000-07:00

The dust has settled and Nicole won both bracket contests she entered again this year. So whether it makes any sense or not, we have to allow for the fact that whatever she is doing works. How well? She ranked in the 98th percentile nationally on Yahoo! and approximately 1.1 million people were entered there. So pretty well.

As you will see from her picks and reasoning below, and as I've written before, she is partial to cougars (or similar), the color blue, states/schools she likes or has some connection to, schools that start with "V", single-word names, intimidating mascots, private/Catholic schools, and, if all else fails, better seeds. She also said this year that she was against schools in NFL cities because of the lockout (actually it was because she got me the Sunday Ticket for Christmas and I may not get to enjoy it because of the lockout). She also said that she no longer favors schools from the South or around New Orleans because the Saints won the Super Bowl.

As always, I told her the schools, seeds and mascots. Sometimes she asked for more information like colors, cities and public/private. Sometimes she knew that already. Believe it or not, no alcohol was consumed prior to picking, but it was really late at night.

East Round 2
Ohio State over UTSA: "Aren't the Buckeyes that fat guy? But I don't want to look stupid, so I pick the far people. They'll motivate me to lose weight." Result: correct
George Mason over Villanova: "Tough because it's a V school. But National Treasure had the Masons and Nicholas Cage needs a break. Result: correct
Clemson over West Virginia: "Clementine oranges: cute name though Tigers are way better." Result: incorrect, West Virginia went on to the 3rd round.
Princeton over Kentucky: "Wildcats vs. Tiger is a great battle. Let's do Princeton; I really like them. And KFC sucks." Result: incorrect, Kentucky went on to the Final Four. [Note: Nicole knows nothing about Princeton basketball and presumably likes them because they're smart kids.]
Xavier over Marquette: "Isn't 'Xavier' spelled with an 'x'? That guy from X-Men is pretty bad-ass. That would be a huge word on Words with Friends [like scrabble]." Result: incorrect, Marquette went on to the Sweet 16.
Syracuse over Indiana State: "Didn't Syracuse win last year? [No] Jeff [Suss, a former colleague] went there and he has to move to Portland. Orangemen is a really cool mascot, like my Clementines! Sycamores is lame dude. Trees?" Result: correct [Note: When I told her that Larry Bird went to Indiana State, she said, "Bird is overrated."]
Georgia over Washington: "Peaches [Andy Etters, a former ultimate teammate] is from Georgia. Do they have the NFL? [They both do.] Oh man, the Seahawks is Pete Carroll. Bulldogs vs. Huskies...hmm...that's a tough one. I really don't like Carroll." Result: incorrect, Washington went on to the 3rd round.
North Carolina over Long Island: "Long Island is barely even a state. [In fact, it's not one.] I know UNC is good and plus, they match USD's colors." Result: correct

West Round 2
Duke over Hampton: "The Hamptons suck. The Hamptons is like wannabe-Malibu. It's all rocks. Stupid." Result: correct [Note: She's never been to the Hamptons and I think she's thinking of Cape Cod.]
Michigan over Tennessee: "Right off the bat, I was thinking Wolverines because we already have a Xavier. That would be cool. Plus, "Volunteer"? That's really your mascot? Does a Wolverine have claws? Wait, is it a fictional character? [She forgets that it's a real animal every year.] I feel like Wolverines is better than Cougars." Result: incorrect, Michigan went on to the 3rd round. [Note: This Wolverines vs. Cougars thing really floored me. Cougar-superiority has been at the core of her entire system for years. I though she was doomed after this.]
Arizona over Memphis: "Wildcats are pretty sissy, right...vs. a tiger? David Levin [co-worker] went to Arizona and I promised him one. He made me feel welcome at work." Result: correct
Texas over Oakland: "Isn't that the Texas where Wendy went? Oakland here sucks. But I do work there. Oh, Wendy. Screw her! She moved away from us. What's the other team's number? [13 vs. 4]. No chance. Plus, I like Wendy. [Note: We actually moved away almost a year before Wendy did, but she did move further.]
Missouri over Cincinnati: "Bearcats? That name is just too long. But I had an old boyfriend that went to Mizzou. How can I take that school seriously? How do you even spell Cincinnati? Oh! The Bengals! F those guys." Result: incorrect, Cincinnati went on to the 3rd round.
Connecticut over Bucknell: "Buck 'em off the list!" Result: correct [Note: she was extremely proud of this pun. Jim Nantz would have been, as well.]
Penn State over Temple: "Stupidest mascots ever. [I explained that a Nittany Lion is a local mountain lion.] You have a Penn State shirts, right? And 'Owl'? Seriously?" Result: incorrect, Temple went on to the 3rd round.
San Diego State over Northern Colorado: "SDSU is a 2? Northern Colorado...too many words ["San Diego State" has more words] Both have NFL teams, so it's a tie. Go with the numbers [seeds]." Result: correct

Southwest Round 2
Kansas over Boston: "Terriers? Like the dog? Those are kick-dogs." Result: correct [A kick-dog is apparently a dog small enough to punt.]
Illinois over UNLV: "How can you even take a school seriously from Las Vegas?" Result: correct
Vanderbilt over Richmond: "Spiders? Jeff [Donlevy, my brother-in-law] went to Vandy and it's a "V" school. And he let us stay at their house for a week over Christmas. And he gave us Dom Perignon at New Years!" Result: incorrect, Richmond went on to the Sweet 16.
Morehead State over Louisville: "I have a hard time taking that one seriously because it sounds like Louis Vuitton. Morehead is funny. Go with the funny one." Result: correct [Note: It's moment like this where you realize her genius. She thinks sounding like a designer disqualifies you from winning, but a penis joke makes you win.]
Georgetown over Virginia Commonwealth: "Too many words." Result: incorrect, VCU went on to the Final Four.
St. Peter's over Purdue: "I like St. Peter's Basilica. And it's Catholic and private. Is the other one Catholic? [No] Both mascots are kinda lame. 14 over 3...that's impossible. But 'Purdue' sounds like 'poo.'" Result: incorrect, Purdue went on to the 3rd round.
Texas A&M over Florida State: "Aggies? Well that's stupid. Although Jim and Steve [my brothers] were Aggies [at UC Davis]. Wait, is this the Florida that does the 'chomp, chomp'? [No, this is the tomahawk-ones.] That tomahawk thing is annoying and pretentious. I pick the non-Florida one. I mean, what are they, hailing Hitler?" Result: incorrect, Florida State went on to the Sweet 16.
Notre Dame over Akron: "Notre Dame! Yeah! Catholic and Irish! I don't know the other one, 'Zips' is pretty sick, dude." Result: correct

Southeast Round 2
Pittsburgh over UNC-Asheville: "Panthers, ooh, that's like a cougar." Result: correct
Butler over Old Dominion: "Monarchs? Butterflies? Gimme a break." Result: correct [Note: "Monarchs" actually refers to actual monarchs, not butterflies.]
Utah State over Kansas State: "No more wildcats. Kansas has the Chiefs, so Utah it is!" Result: incorrect, Kansas State went on to the 3rd round. [Note: when I told her that the KC Chiefs play in Missouri, not Kansas, she said, "That's stupid. Why did the NFL name them the 'Kansas City Chiefs' then?"]
Wisconsin over Belmont: "Didn't that horse die at the Belmont? Anthony and Adria [friends] and my cousins went to Wisconsin. Result: correct [Note: I think she's thinking of Barbaro who was put down after breaking his leg at the Preakness in 2006. Either way, impressive knowledge.]
Gonzaga over St. John's: "I really don't like St. John's because Angelina Jolie is the spokesperson. And Justin Howard [friend]! WCC-representation!" Result: correct [Note: I have no idea what the Angelina Jolie line means.]
UCLA over Michigan State: "U-C-L-A-fight-fight-fight! I feel like if you've been to a game, you should root for them. Unless they're a-holes. Like Chargers fans. Screw SDSU." Result: correct
Florida over UCSB: "Chomp-chomp! Santa Barbara is a part school. Plus, Chris [Valente, a longtime friend of mine and UCSB alumnus] GTL's." Result: correct

I will continue with the rest of Nicole's picks tomorrow. She was a pedestrian 21-11 with this picks in the first round, but these things aren't won in the first round anyway.

Part 1: Results through the Round of 64
Part 2: Statistical Comparisons of Nicole's system vs. AP, RPI, seeds and Sagarin through Round of 32
Part 4: Nicole's Round of 32 through Championship picks
Part 5: Final Statistical Results (coming Thursday)
Tourney Bonus Coverage: The Jim Nantz-pun-o-meter game (coming soon)

NCAA Tourney 2011: Nicole's Crystal Ball (Part 2)

2011-03-23T12:44:00.000-07:00

Since my wife first started filling out her own bracket two years ago, I have come to realize that while her system makes absolutely no sense, it works. So this year, I decided to try and quantify why.

Categories Nicole Uses:

Better seeds 37-11

Best/Worst Conferences (listing only those with multiple bids)

ACC 7-1 (3-0 in Round of 32)
MWC 4-1 (2-0 in Round of 32)
Colonial 4-2
Big East 9-9 (2-5 in Round of 32)
CUSA 0-2
MAC 0-2

BCS Conferences vs. Non-BCS Conferences 18-8

Best/Worst States (listing only those with multiple bids)

Florida 4-0
Wisconsin 4-0
North Carolina 5-1
Alabama 0-2
New Jersey 0-2
Tennessee 0-4

Mascots

Animals vs. People 11-7
Cats vs. Dogs 3-2
Wildcats 5-2
Huskies 3-1
Bulldogs 4-3
Tigers 1-4
Ancient Greeks (Trojans and Spartans) 0-3

Best/Worst Colors

Red 14-9 (6-2 in Round of 32)
Blue 33-28
White 19-16
Purple 3-3 (eliminated)
Black 7-11
Green 1-3 (eliminated)

Best/Worst Color Combinations

Blue/Red 6-1 (3-0 in Round of 32)
Blue/White 14-8 (6-1 in Round of 32)
Orange/blue 4-3
Single color 2-3
Blue/Gold 6-7 (1-4 in Round of 32)
Green/White 0-2
Blue/Gray 0-2

Public vs. Private 9-5

East of the Mississippi vs. West 9-11

Union vs. Confederacy 8-10

Totals for various systems:

Nicole’s Actual Picks 30-18 – 62.5%
Better Regular Season Final RPI vs. Worse 33-15 – 68.8% (East 10-2, West 11-1, SW 4-8 and SE 8-4)
Better Regular Season Final AP Ranking vs. Worse 30-16 – 65.2% (East 9-3, West 10-1, SW 4-8 and SE 7-4)
Better Seed vs. Worse 36-12 – 75.0% (East 10-2, West 12-0, SW 4-8 and SE 10-2)
Better Regular Season Final Sagarin rating vs. Worse 37-11 – 77.1% (East 10-2, West 12-0, SW 5-7 and SE 10-2)

*These results were not adjusted after each round; they reflect what the bracket would be like had it been picked this way before the Tournament.

Points of interest:

In all four of the more scientific systems just named, they would have 6-of-8 Elite Eight teams left (missing Pitt and Notre Dame), 3-of-4 Final Four teams left (missing Pitt), and both Finalists. Nicole has 7-of-8 Elite Eight teams left (missing Notre Dame), 3-of-4 Final Four teams (missing Notre Dame), and one Finalist (missing Notre Dame). So she did worse than all four heading into the Sweet 16, but they way points generally multiply in later rounds, she is actual in a far better position than all four.

In the 11 games whose results featured a worse seed winning, one was a 9 beating an 8, one was a 5 beating a 4, and four others featured “upset” wins by major national programs (Florida State, Gonzaga and Marquette twice) – hardly “Cinderella” material. That means through 48 games, only five game were truly unforeseeable upsets: 11 VCU over 6 Georgetown, 12 Richmond over 5 Vanderbilt, 13 Morehead State over 4 Louisville (which Nicole picked), 11 VCU over 3 Purdue, and 8 Butler over 1 Pittsburgh. We all should have seen the other 89% coming.

NCAA Tourney 2011: Nicole's Crystal Ball (Part 1)

2011-03-19T17:00:00.000-07:00

Making picks for the NCAA men's basketball tournament has basically become a sport in and of itself. National media outlets reserve year-round coverage for "bracketology," seemingly anyone who has ever watched a game of college basketball now writes a blog about who got robbed and how to make your bracket, and likely more people join tourney bracket groups than vote for president. Speaking of which, the President now does an annual bracket special on ESPN and he actually went 15-1 on day 4 on Friday.

For the last two years, I have written about my wife's mystifyingly successful system for picking (she's beating me again). It is one part basketball knowledge, 4 parts mascot death-match, 2 parts travel log, 2 parts color war, 1 part class-warfare. But it works. In a vain attempt to quantify this system, I humbly submit the following statistics for your consideration. Refer to them at your own risk when filling out your bracket next March.

These statistics are from all 36 games through the first two rounds of the 2011 men's tournament (unless noted otherwise). All results more than 1 game above or below .500 are listed.

Basketball Knowledge: Seeds, Rankings and Conferences
Better seeds went 25-7 (not including 1st round games which are between teams ranked the same)
AP Top 25 teams went 19-6 (one loss was to another Top-25 team)
ACC: 4-1
Big Ten: 5-2
Colonial: 3-1
Pac 10: 3-1
Big East: 7-4
C-USA: 0-2
Mid-Atlantic: 0-2

Mascot Death-Match
Animals: 25-20 People 9-11
Indians: 3-0 Ancient Greeks 0-3
Birds: 5-4 Cats 7-6 Dogs: 5-5
Tigers: 1-4 (0-4 in Round 2) Wildcats: 3-1 Bulldogs: 3-2 Terriers 0-2

Travel Log: State vs. State Comparison
Florida: 2-0
Kansas: 2-0
Washington: 2-0
Indiana: 3-1
Virginia: 4-2
Alabama 0-2 (both in Round 1)
Tennessee 0-4

Color War*
Blue: 21-17
Red: 8-7
Gold: 1-3 in Round 1, 5-3 in Round 2
Orange: 2-0 in Round 1, 4-5 in Round 2
Black: 5-9
Blue/Yellow: 2-0
Blue/Red: 3-1
Blue/Gold: 5-3
Black/Gold: 3-5
Blue/Gray: 0-2
Green/White: 0-2
3 Color Schools: 3-5

*Colors are taken from schools' officially listed colors. Shades of colors went into primary colors in most cases (crimson and cardinal are both just "red" here), unless there were enough of the alternate color to make it worth distinguishing it as its own (gold stands alone from yellow).

Class Warfare
Private schools: 8-15
Public schools: 28-21
Catholic schools: 3-5

So while all these results are preliminary and need a larger sample (i.e.: the rest of the tournament) before we can call any of it infallible and scientifically proven, some working hypotheses:

God is not a basketball fan or the Catholic schools would be doing better. For the record, Mormons were 1-1.
Alabama and Tennessee schools should stop playing basketball and focus on other endeavors.
Utah State got the biggest screw-job of the year by earning a 12-seed and having to play against a 5-seed ranked worse than them in the AP poll (USU: 19, Kansas St. 21)
Stricter private school academic standards seem to be outweighing their ability to allegedly bend admission rules to bring in ball players.
Black may be cool, but wear it and you lose.
"Blue" chip recruits apparently take that title to heart when choosing which jersey they'll wear.
Among pets, birds are doing slightly better than cats, with dogs bringing up the rear. But it's a difference of only percentage points.
Wildcats are much better than Tigers.
The Big East lived up to the hype for the most part (but their 11 bids does nothing more than prove than expansion of the tournament was unnecessary - if you are 11th in your own league, do you really deserve a chance to play for a national title?)
VCU belonged.

The BCS Makes Its Case, And It's Not A Good One

2011-01-11T11:14:00.001-08:00

The 2010-2011 Bowl season is now in the bag and we have a BCS Champion, though not an NCAA Champion. The good news is that Auburn is probably the best team in the country and probably deserves the title. Though I can't imagine there's anyone outside of Alabama not wondering what Stanford or TCU might do against the Tigers.

It’s hard to blame the advertisers, school administrators, venues, corporate sponsors or bowl organizers for trying to make a buck while also figuring out a better way to determine a football national champion than we used to have. And the BCS is better than its predecessor. What I blame them for is settling for a system that neither maximizes how much money they could make, nor determines a champion in the best way possible.

A playoff would unquestionably be the fairest way to determine a champion. We see it in every other sport and every other level of college football, and while the best team may not always win a tournament, a tournament winner is always the unquestioned champion. No campaigning, no geographical or conference bias, no voting, everyone got a fair shot…the last man standing wins.

The great irony behind the BCS’ motto, “Every game counts,” which also serves as their Twitter and Facebook handle, is that in reality, only one game counts. But this is only one of the many glaring holes in the pro-BCS argument.

On their official website are a number of links to articles and statements in which BCS administrators and those making the most money from its existence argue for its continued existence. These defenses of the BCS are the same ones that we often hear on television and radio, but none of them is actually a good reason to sit pat with what we’ve been dealt.

So let’s put all the cards out on the table and see what we actually have. BCS vs. Playoff, once and for all. Each of these pro-BCS arguments is taken directly from their website or from articles linked from their website.

BCS: “A 16-team playoff would include guaranteed spots for each of the 11 Division I conferences. This means that Alabama, Georgia Tech, Ohio State, Oregon and the like would be included. Also, you would include Central Michigan from the Mid-America Conference and Troy from the Sun Belt. How much interest would there be in that first round game between Troy and Alabama and likewise, the 2-15 pairing of Central Michigan and Texas?” –Butch Henry, from a BCS’ homepage link to an article published in January 2010 in the Aiken Standard.

Playoff: Exactly. Each of the power conferences would still get their best horse in the race. And then the next five best teams would be invited as well. As for the amount of interest in a Troy vs. Alabama first round game, I’d say it would be considerably higher than a BYU-UTEP New Mexico Bowl. Or a N. Illinois-Fresno St. Humanitarian Bowl. Or an Ohio-Troy New Orleans Bowl. Or a Southern Miss-Louisville Beef O’Brady’s Bowl. Or than probably any of the 30 non-BCS games, and perhaps more than the Connecticut-Oklahoma Sugar Bowl.

BCS: “There will be no bowls if a playoff system is initiated. Only 16 teams would play postseason. Do you think the Southeastern Conference, which has 10 teams playing in bowl games this year, will support for one second a system in which only two or three teams go to playoffs? How many coaches get fired for not making the playoffs when just two or three get to play? We have more than 60 teams going to bowl games this year. No one will agree to a system that only 16 get to go.” – Henry

Playoff: So make a secondary tournament (like basketball’s NIT) or host bowls for the next 44 teams after the Tournament field is named. That way we get a legitimate national champion, most of the corporate sponsors still get their names on second tier games, 60+ schools get honored with some postseason play and all those bowl venue communities still cash in.

BCS: Bowls provide an opportunity for half the schools competing to finish the season as a champion. A tournament would make 15 out of 16 kids finish as a loser.

Playoff: True. If the goal of the bowl system really is to provide a sense of accomplishment to the players, then fine…keep it. But don’t sell tickets, naming rights, or advertising and play the games behind closed doors. After all, it’s the kids that matter, not the Title, and not the cash, right?

BCS: “An ESPN The Magazine poll in August showed that when players were asked whether they would rather have a college football career with three bowl trips or one playoff trip, 77 percent favored the bowls and only 23 percent wanted a playoff.” – Bill Hancock, Bowl Championship Series executive director on BCSFootball.org

Playoff: If you asked, “Would you rather have a college football career with two bowl trips and a playoff trip or three bowl trips,” my guess is that the majority would prefer at least one title shot along with a free vacation or two.

BCS: “Division I-AA, II and III playoffs lose money and must be supported by surplus revenues from the Final Four.” - Henry

Playoff: So does pretty much every bowl but the biggest 10, and they are all supported by the big ones. Additionally, the amount of national interest in Division I-A is so much higher that the interest in the other divisions, that this parallel doesn’t hold up.

BCS: “Playoff games would have to be played on college campus sites to ensure a crowd for rounds one through three.” [Paraphrasing:] “Otherwise, crowd support in early round games would be a concern because teams wouldn’t know where they’re playing until only 6 days before the next round. The Sugar Bowl teams are given 17,500 tickets to sell and would likely swallow many of them. Basketball tourney teams are given just 750 tickets in the regional rounds and often struggle to sell them. Attendance would be a huge problem.” – Henry

Playoff: The bowls are currently played at neutral locations, so that part of the argument is moot. While one week to get fans to mobilize is tougher than one month, I can’t imagine this would truly be a concern in almost all cases. Additionally, it is reasonable to expect an increase in attendance by more neutral local fans because the games become relevant to all fans, not just fans of the two schools competing. Boston College and Nevada played 2 miles from my home last night. Tickets were on Craigslist for as little as $35. $50 on the 50-yard line. I am a huge college football fan and it never occurred to me to go to the game. Had it been a playoff game, even with the same two underwhelming teams, I would certainly have gone and they would have certainly sold out. Additionally, the other Division I tournament similar in profile, men’s basketball, is played on neutral sites to massive crowds, sometimes five-times more than normal regular season games or more. And they only get a week’s notice for those games as well.

As for the tickets allotted, bowl teams have to buy those 17,500-or-so tickets and the schools take a bath almost every time. Regardless, I imagine most schools would gladly make that investment to make sure they can get in the building every student and alumnus or alumna who wants to be there.

Furthermore, what would be wrong with schools hosting playoff games? Basically every other sport does it to no negative consequences. Don’t top seeds deserve home-field advantage? Won’t it protect the favorites from the small conference winners who perhaps aren’t on par? So the road fans would only have 6 days to plan travel, but again, that’s how it is with nearly every other sport and anyway, the higher seed’s fans should get the advantage. Yes, the stadiums may be smaller in some cases and thus revenue would shrink in those cases, but it would also feel less sterile and corporate and would allow (at least half the teams each week) to attend normal classes. No neutral site reverie like the bowls provide and no corporate media orgies all week (or two), but isn’t this about the football and the kids, anyway? And besides, couldn’t all those parties and events be held in college towns just as easily as they could be held outside AT&T Park?

BCS: “Playoffs and plus-one systems sound great to the fan because it gives them a better viewing experience. But college athletics should be viewed more like minor league baseball, a breeding ground for potential pros, not a league in and of itself.” – Krystina Lucido from a link on the BCS’ homepage to an article published in December 2010 in the Press Box Online.

Playoff: This is college athletics, not minor league professional athletics. If we should not view it as “a league in and of itself,” then why is there a BCS at all? Why aren’t all games considered scrimmages? Of course there should be a fairly-determined champion and the viewing experience of the fans (students and alumni, especially) is completely relevant.

BCS: “Playoffs in December would disrupt the exam process.” – Henry

Playoff: Division I-AA, II and III teams seem to have figured this out. And the BCS causes conflict for academics, as well. For instance, Auburn and Oregon played the National Championship game on January 10, 2011 and were in town for the game a week earlier…while classes had already begun for the Spring Semester.

BCS: “The average size of players in Divisions I-AA, II and III are far less than those in Division I-A. Their recovery time is far quicker than the size and strength of players in the largest class. Alabama has already played 13 games. What would be left of its team to play four more games over the next four weeks?” – Henry

Playoff: All players would be at the same disadvantage, so there would be no advantage gained by anyone but those teams strong enough to rest stars. And is a D-IA player’s recovery time really that much longer? They are bigger on average, yes, but they’re also more athletic and stronger on average as well. NFL players are bigger, stronger and more athletic that D-IA players, and they play 16 games plus as many as four postseason games. Should we get rid of the NFL playoffs and just vote for the Super Bowl competitors after Week 11?

BCS: “Even a four-team playoff adds two games to a 12 or 13-game season. Fourteen games for a student athlete is way too much; this is like a professional schedule” – Mark Even on Bleacher Report

Playoff: Putting the semifinals on January 1 would be best for keeping the New Year’s festival feel. So the Quarterfinals would be the week before Christmas. The First Round would be around December 10-15. Each round could easily be separated by more than a week to allow extra rest. Currently college football’s regular season generally wraps up by the end of November. This provides two weeks or more of down time before the playoffs start. Additionally, schools could cut their regular seasons down to 11 or 12 games, rather than 12 or 13. Finally, only 8 teams would play more than 1 postseason game. Four would play more than two. Two teams would play more than 3. They are able to handle this at other levels; there is no reason to think they couldn’t do it at D-IA.

BCS: “A bowl game…is a reward for a team that has had a successful season.”

Playoff: So is a playoff game. And by successful, do you really mean 7-6? 23 bowls teams were 7-6 or worse in 2010-2011. 8 finished under .500. It’s one thing for the Seahawks to make the postseason with a sub-.500 record because they won their division. It would have been another if the Cowboys had been invited because they would have sold a lot of tickets.

BCS: [Paraphrasing] It would be unfair to take the bowl-swag and per diem money away from athletes. - Henry

Playoff: [Washing vomit out of my mouth after reading that argument] Um, I guess they can still get (illegal) benefits from corporate sponsors for playing in playoff games and, obviously, they would still get per diem.

BCS: “Teams spend five to seven days at the bowl site prior to the game. Practice and meetings take up half the day, and players are free to go to the beach or hit the tourist spots/social gatherings up until a day or so before the game. Then, the coaches put in place the normal game procedures. If there is a playoff, the players know the coaches will fly the team to the game site on Friday, play the game on Saturday and fly home immediately afterwards.” - Henry

BCS: "Add a playoff and the [AT&T Cotton Bowl] Classic experience becomes nothing more than a short business trip. The Cotton Bowl prides itself on creating life-long memories for the student athletes." - Rick Baker, AT&T Cotton Bowl Classic president on BCSFootball.org

Playoff: So the players will spend more time at home and in class, and the teams spend less money on lodgings. They are not entitled to trips to the beach or tourist spots. They can do that on their own time and there is no reason that schools should fund it. Bowl trip festivities seem to blatantly break NCAA rules against improper benefits given to athletes. Are other non-athletes afforded the same trips? As for memories, I think the winning team would still look back fondly on the game while the losing team would still blame the refs.

BCS: "[Some] claim the bowls will survive a playoff, but a playoff would put an end to the Maaco Las Vegas Bowl.” - Tina Kunzer-Murphy, Football Bowl Association chairman and Maaco Las Vegas Bowl executive director on BCSFootball.org

Playoff: Perhaps, but it would also be the beginning of a legitimate NCAA Division IA football championship, which is the point, isn’t it? The Las Vegas Bowl could continue to choose non-tournament teams if they so chose. Granted, there would be little interest in that game perhaps, but there already is little interest in it.

BCS: “Almost all bowls donate a portion of the local profits to area charity. There is no charity when the NCAA takes over. There is no incentive for a locality to support the local playing of a game other than tourism.” – Henry

Playoff: No charities besides the non-profit universities that would reap huge financial windfalls, right? As Henry writes, they don’t all donate to charity anyway, so don’t paint them all with a saintly brush. A lot of money would be lost by venue-area businesses but the point is to choose a national champion in the fairest way possible, not to pimp our finest athletes out to the highest bidder. The amount of money brought in the participating schools and their local communities would be huge in relation to what they make now, so the point is basically moot.

BCS: “Bowl games have a great following on television. This past year, the Alamo Bowl between Missouri and Northwestern had higher ratings on ESPN than Duke-North Carolina basketball.” - Henry

Playoff: I’m guessing that Duke-North Carolina game wasn’t a postseason game, or that stat would have been different. Football is far more popular than basketball; ratings for regular season college football games routinely out-do ratings for regular season college basketball games. But NCAA Tourney basketball games routinely out-do bowl games. That same 2008-2009 Alamo Bowl between Missouri and Northwestern got a 4.60 national television rating. It was the 8^th highest rated bowl of that year. The average bowl game (34 games total) that year drew a 3.99. The average NCAA basketball tournament game (65 games total) in the same year drew a 5.71. And keep in mind that the Alamo Bowl (like nearly all bowls) was played on either a holiday, a weeknight in primetime or on a weekend. Almost half of those 65 basketball games were played on a weekday or before primetime. And they still outperformed the bowls by an average of 143%

BCS: "January 1 has become internationally known as America's New Year Celebration, and a salute to tradition and a love of pageantry that has thrived in Pasadena since 1902. Without a bowl system and structure in place, college football loses its unique appeal and storied traditions. In its place a corporate sporting environment of a playoff would destroy the experience for all those involved: athletes, host communities and fans alike." -Scott McKibben, Tournament of Roses, Rose Bowl Game executive director on BCSFootball.org

Playoff: The loss of January 1 as a College Football Holiday would be too bad. And there is something to a pageantry of the January 1 Bowls that would be lost, the Rose Bowl in particular. However, the BBVA Compass Bowl pitted a 7-5 team against a 6-6 team on January 8, 2011. The godaddy.com Bowl pitted a 6-6 team and a 9-4 team on January 6, 2011. It seems to me that the sanctity of January 1 is long gone already. And are we really arguing that a playoff would create more of a corporate structure than a system of corporate-sponsored bowls? Also, I’m pretty sure that January 1 is everyone’s New Year Celebration, not just America’s.

BCS: “A large amount of the attendees to these games are students. A playoff series, played in multiple areas, is not conducive to the audience. Students can't travel that much and universities cannot supply that much transportation.” – Lucido

Playoff: This is a good point, but I fall back on the fact that the other divisions of football all do it and play in front of sold out (though smaller) stadiums. If games were played at home-sites, this would be less of a problem, and again, there would be far more casual local fan interest.

BCS: Won’t the 17^th team complain (probably rightfully) that they deserve a seat at the table just like the 3^rd team does now, or the 69^th team will in basketball this year?

Playoff: Yes they will, but it’s a lot harder to argue that point when you are barely good enough to be on the national title radar at 17^th than when you are 3^rd and possibly undefeated.

BCS: The four BCS Bowl venues would never allow a playoff to happen because they currently get to host two games every four years. With a playoff, even if they kept their name on the playoff games, they’d only get one game per year.

Playoff: Why are non-school, non-conference, and non-NCAA officials making these decisions in the first place? Also, this could easily be fixed by having a 3^rd place game the day before the National Championship game and that third place game could rotate among the big four each year.

BCS: If teams want to make the National Championship game, they should take care of business on the field and make sure they make the top two.

Playoff: Like TCU going 12-0, Stanford (losing only at #2 Oregon), Wisconsin (losing only at #9 Michigan State), Ohio State (losing only at #5 Wisconsin), Boise State (losing only at #15 Nevada in overtime), or Michigan State (losing only at then #18 Iowa) going 11-1?

BCS: Putting aside all the other bowls, in most years since the BCS worked and got the two best teams in the championship game

Playoff: Except the times that it hasn’t worked. And again, just because the two best teams faced off for the title, doesn’t mean the third (or others) best teams didn’t also deserve a shot. It seems that every season we all say, “This is the year that finally proves how terrible this system is,” and yet the next year seems to always make a new and even stronger argument for tearing the system down.

BCS: “College football is the one sport where the regular season counts.” - Henry

Playoff: That’s a bit of a stretch, but it is perfectly accurate to say that it is the one sport where the postseason doesn’t count.

Put plainly, there is simply no good reason for universities to remain in the BCS system. It clearly does not determine a champion in the best way possible and it doesn’t make them the most money possible. Austin Murphy and Dan Wetzel wrote a cover story for Sports Illustrated that pointed out the massive amounts of money that universities pay out in order to cover their bowl trips. From unsold tickets to travel to hotels to meals to media campaigns and events, schools break their banks to get into bowls that don’t wind up earning them any money or get them any closer to a national title. But bowl organizers reap fortunes from the games, even paying annual salaries over $1 million just for a few days of events. Their stark picture of the bowl system and the BCS clearly shows that it is the bowl committees making all the money, not the universities or conferences. And while they are entitled to their entrepreneurial ventures, that simply has nothing to do with football, with schools or with kids.

And I’ve not even gotten into the ridiculously unfair conference tie-ins that placed unranked Connecticut in a BCS bowl and forced #10 Boise State to play before Christmas. Nor did I get into the recruiting power that smaller conference schools would gain, thus leveling the playing field, and making it unnecessary for schools to destroy smaller conferences and rivalries by jumping ship in chasing football money.

The bowl organizers say it would ruin them to have a playoff. Perhaps. But it should be the schools getting rich, not the party planners. And while ultimately, college football is extraordinarily popular even with this corrupt and broken system, if you had a car that everyone liked the look of but it didn’t run properly, you’d go get it fixed.

2010-2011 NCAA Division I-A Football Playoff Bracket

2010-12-06T12:52:00.000-08:00

Sweet 16
Chick-fil-A Bowl: 1 Auburn Tigers vs. 16 Troy Trojans
Champs Sports Bowl: 8 Arkansas Razorbacks vs. 9 Michigan State Spartans
Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl: 5 Wisconsin Badgers vs. 12 Nevada Wolfpack
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: 4 Stanford Cardinal vs. 13 Central Florida Golden Knights
AutoZone Liberty Bowl: 2 Oregon Ducks vs. 15 Miami Redhawks
AT&T Cotton Bowl: 7 Oklahoma Sooners vs. 10 Boise State Broncos
Meineke Car Care Bowl: 6 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. 11 Virginia Tech Hokies
Outback Bowl: 3 Texas Christian Horned Frogs vs. 14 Connecticut Huskies

Elite 8 (National Quarterfinals)
Allstate Sugar Bowl: 1 Auburn/16 Troy vs. 8 Arkansas/9 Michigan State
Valero Alamo Bowl: 4 Stanford/13 Central Florida vs. 5 Wisconsin/12 Nevada
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: 2 Oregon/15 Miami vs. 7 Oklahoma/10 Boise State
Capital One Bowl: 3 TCU/14 Connecticut vs. 6 Ohio State/11 Virginia Tech

Final Four (National Semifinals)
Discover Orange Bowl: 1/8/9/16 vs. 4/5/12/13
Rose Bowl Game Presented by VIZIO: 2/7/10/15 vs. 3/6/11/14

National Finals
Tostitos National Championship Game

Seedings and Bowl Selections
1 Auburn (SEC Champion, BCS #1), 13-0
2 Oregon (Pac-10 Champion, BCS #2), 12-0
3 TCU (MWC Champion, BCS #3), 12-0
4 Stanford (at large, BCS #4), 11-1
5 Wisconsin (Big Ten Champion, BCS #5), 11-1
6 Ohio State (at large, BCS #6), 11-1
7 Oklahoma (Big 12 Champion, BCS #7), 11-2
8 Arkansas (at large, BCS #8), 10-2
9 Michigan State (at large, BCS #9), 11-1
10 Boise State (at large, BCS #10), 11-1
11 Virginia Tech (ACC Champion, BCS #13), 11-2
12 Nevada (WAC Champion, BCS #15), 12-1
13 Central Florida (C-USA Champion, BCS #25), 10-3
14 Connecticut (Big East Champion, unranked), 8-4
15 Miami (Mid-American Champion, unranked), 9-4
16 Troy (Sun Belt Champion, unranked), 6-6

Because there were four conference champions not ranked among the top 16 at the end of the season, four teams who were ranked in the top 16 were bumped out of the playoffs: 11 LSU (3rd in the SEC, 10-2), 12 Missouri (3rd in the Big 12, 10-2), 14 Oklahoma State (4th in the Big 12, 10-2), and Alabama (5th in the SEC, 9-3).

The Fiesta Bowl is next in the BCS rotation and will host the national championship game.
The Orange Bowl won the lottery and chose to host the potential 1 vs. 4 semifinal game.
The Rose Bowl was next and will host the potential 2 vs. 3 seminal game.
The Sugar Bowl chose to host the potential 1 vs. 8 quarterfinal game.
The Fiesta Bowl chose to host the potential 2 vs. 7 quarterfinal game.
The Capital One Bowl had the highest non-BCS TV rating in 2009-10 and chose to host the potential 3 vs. 6 quarterfinal game.
The Alamo Bowl was next and will host the potential 4 vs. 5 quarterfinal game.
The Fight Hunger Bowl (formerly the Emerald Bowl) was next and chose to host 4 Stanford vs. 13 Central Florida.
The Meineke Car Care Bowl was next and chose to host 6 Ohio State vs. 11 Virginia Tech.
The Cotton Bowl was next and chose to host 7 Oklahoma vs. 10 Boise State.
The Champs Sports Bowl was next and chose to host 8 Arkansas vs. 9 Michigan State.
The Chick-fil-A Bowl was next and chose to host 1 Auburn vs. 16 Troy.
The Liberty Bowl was next and chose to host 2 Oregon vs. 15 Miami.
The Holiday Bowl was next and chose to host 5 Wisconsin vs. 12 Nevada.
The Outback Bowl was next and will host 3 TCU vs. 14 Connecticut.

Read here for information on how this tournament came to replace the BCS.

UPDATE: As noted in this article, the "final" BCS rankings released last week were incorrect. Apparently no one really checks the data before it is released each week and since their mathematical system for determining the rankings is not made public, no one really can. It was later discovered that a I-AA playoff game was omitted from the mathematical morass, probably because someone figured a game between two I-AA schools doesn't matter. Turns out it does because they also played against I-A schools this year, so their records affect strength of schedule for a whole web of I-A schools. Long story short, LSU and Boise State were incorrectly ranked 10th and 11th, respectively, but they should have been flipped. In this bracket, I had initially placed LSU at #10 and in the Cotton Bowl against Oklahoma in the first round. I have since fixed this error and replaced LSU with Boise State. The Cotton Bowl would likely still choose this matchup because Oklahoma is so close to Dallas and Boise State's presence creates a big national buzz.

NCAA Division I-A Playoff Guidelines

2010-12-06T11:17:00.000-08:00

The 2010-11 Playoff Bracket is posted here, but before we proceed, a few notes on the new playoff system:

The Bowl Championship Series (BCS) system has been dismantled because it became clear that the best interests of neither the sport nor of the student-athletes were in mind. Further, as will be shown is another post, the BCS was not the ratings-grabbing money-maker that it was purported to be, and it was determined that not only could a playoff do a better job of determining a national champion, but it could also make more money for the schools, conferences, the NCAA, the networks, and the corporate sponsors, while not interfering with the student-athletes' educational interests.

Since we have switched to a playoff system for the "Football Bowl Series" or "FBS", that name no longer applies. Therefore we are switching back to the traditional "I-A" and "I-AA" instead of "FBS" and "FCS." The NCAA apologizes for this as one of many, many embarrassing and ridiculous errors during the BCS-era.

Many bowl games are still under contract with corporate sponsors, and fans enjoy the "bowl atmosphere", so we have decided to maintain the names of the bowls within the playoff format. The four BCS bowl games were given prominent spots in the lineup.

In the BCS system, the national championship game rotated through the four BCS-bowl sites on a four-year cycle, so every four years, each of those four sites actually got to host two bowls: their own plus the national championship game. This system will continue, with the Fiesta Bowl keeping its spot for 2010-11.

There will then be a lottery among the other three bowls to determine which games they host. The winner will host a national semifinal game (Final Four) and gets to choose which side of the bracket they want (the 1 vs. 4 side or the 2 vs. 3 side). The next winner gets the other national semifinal (Final Four). The third team will host a national quarterfinal game (Elite Eight) and gets to choose which game (1 vs. 8, 2 vs. 7, 3 vs. 6, or 4 vs. 5). The national championship host then gets to choose which national quarterfinal (Elite Eight) they will host as well.

The remaining playoff games (two Elite Eight games and eight Sweet 16 games) will be hosted by the next 10 most-prominent bowls based on last year's television ratings. Beginning in 2011-12, all other bowl contracts will be voided and these 10 games will be up for sponsorship and will simply go to the highest bidder. The same will hold for all 15 games' television rights. 2010-11 contracts will hold but all networks will have open bidding for all games starting in 2011-12.

This only allows for 15 playoff-bowl games, but 35 bowls had been scheduled for 2010-11. After the 16-team playoff field is selected, those other 20 bowls may invite any bowl-eligible teams they choose. In subsequent years, an N.I.T.-type secondary tournament is likely to arise, replacing (or absorbing) many of these lower-tier bowls.

Team Selection: One automatic playoff bid will be awarded to the champion of each of the 11 I-A conferences. At-large bids will be presented to the next five highest ranked teams. Conferences will determine their own champions (based on regular season standings, a conference title game or ranking system). The five at-large schools will be determined by the final BCS rankings. Generally speaking, the BCS' ranking system is effective. Each year it will be reviewed to fix any problems that arise, but for the time being, it will remain the official ranking system that determines the seeding.

The 11 conferences with automatic bids are the Southeastern, Pacific 10, Mountain West, Big Ten, Big 12, Atlantic Coast, Western Athletic, Conference-USA, Big East, Mid-American and Sun Belt conferences. The inclusion of each of them will hopefully prevent the concentration of football powers in 3-4 leagues. Since schools will be have good opportunities to make the playoffs from any conference, they will be more likely to stay in the conferences that suit their entire athletic departments and universities, not just one of the 3-4 "major" conferences from the current BCS system.

This automatic-bid system will preclude some possibly-deserving schools from making the playoffs and include some seemingly undeserving schools. For instance, Boise State will be left out of the 2010-11 playoffs, but Troy will be included. This is unfortunate, but no matter what the system, there will always be someone left out. It is more fair to have the #11 team left out than the #3 team, which occurs currently in the BCS system. There will be no minimum eligibility requirements for being playoff eligible besides winning a conference championship.

Commissioner of Sports: November Decrees

2010-11-02T11:03:00.000-07:00

Ah, November Baseball

On the NFL's new tackling controversy:

Many NFL players and alumni were upset recently when Commissioner Goodell said that helmet-to-helmet and other illegal hits would result in increased fines and even suspensions. The common defense of these hits was that "football is a violent game," "that's how we've been taught to tackle since pee-wee football," and "they're interfering with my ability to do my job."

Each of these points is stupid because the hits that Goodell is cracking down on were already illegal. Yes, it is a violent game, but there is no need to intentionally inflict injury, and James Harrison infamously said is his intent when he hits someone. Intentionally attacking someone physically is a crime and as we have seen in the NHL, especially cheap shots on the field can be prosecuted off of it. No pee-wee football player was taught to dive into another player headfirst - you are taught to keep your head up so you can see if the guy makes a move and you are taught to wrap him up with your arms, not bounce off and hope you hit him hard enough to knock him down.

On the MLB schedule and playoff expansion:
Major League Baseball's season is unnecessarily long, causing the World Series to tumble in November. There are two reasons why this has never been remedied: cutting games means cutting revenue and would destroy baseball sacred statistics. Both are reasonable. But not enough.

MLB should change to a 140 game schedule, cutting interleague out of the regular season schedule.  The season could start later and this would also allow more time for the World Baseball Classic and the Olympics. The shorter season would still provide ample time to determine the best playoff teams. The risk is that owners would raise ticket prices fractionally to make up for the 11-lost home games, but I will address that later.

Additionally, the playoffs should not be expanded beyond the current 8-team format. If after 162 (or 140) games, you still can't get yourself into a better position than third place, you are clearly not the best team and shouldn't get to be in the playoffs. And no World Series game should ever be scheduled to be played in November.  The divisional series should be expanded to best-of-7 series, which will require a tightening of the playoff schedule. This year teams played 162 games in 182 days (including a 3 day break for the All-Star game). That means they play a game every 27 hours for six months - 20 rest days. If a team had played all 19 scheduled playoff games (5+7+7), they would have played a game every 35 hours - 9 rest days. There is no need for so much time off. One travel day could be eliminated from each of the three playoff rounds (still leaving two rainout makeup days per round), two games could be added to the LDS round, and the whole 21-game tournament could be completed in fewer days than the current system is - and in October, where it belongs.

On ticket prices at sporting events:
On one level, sports is a business and business owners have the right to charge whatever they want for their products. If the price is too high, consumers won't buy and they'll have to drop prices. Hurray America. But as any sports fan will tell you, sports is not just a business. When a deli has a good month, the owner takes home a little extra cash. That's a business. When a sports franchise has a good month, millions of fans are taken along for the ride. When a business succeeds in some huge way, there's a blip on the ticker on your TV. When a sports teams succeeds in a huge way, there are parades through downtown.

So since sports is more than a business, it is a part of people's families, it cannot only be controlled by the free market. From season to season, ticket prices cannot be raised beyond the rise in inflation plus a percentage increase equal to the increase in value for the seats (new HD jumbotron? That's worth a percentage per seat per game). Additionally, while it is reasonable to have premier pricing for premier opponents, it is not reasonable to increase pricing based on expected weather or other factors that the team cannot control.

The San Francisco Giants charge more for a Dodgers series than a Marlins series. That's reasonable. But they and others have reportedly considered having pricing increase based on other factors, such as weather forecasts and specific player matchups. That's not reasonable because they cannot guarantee the thing they are charging more for. If my seat is in the shade and I am a little cool, I might want a refund. Or it is too sunny and I get a sunburn. Or it's a little windier in my section. Or the forecast is wrong completely. Or on gameday Roy Halladay decides his shoulder is sore and he wants a few days to rest it. Or the manager decides to give Albert Pujols the day off. Or Pujols gets hurt in the first and comes out of the game. Or he goes 0-4. In any of these (very reasonable) situations, the fans aren't getting what they paid for and should be entitled to a refund.

On college sports rankings:
Is there anyone left who still thinks the BCS is a good idea or that it is working properly? During its reign, how many times has it come up with a #1 vs. #2 matchup that was unassailable? Once? Twice? The previous system did not work either, of course, which is what necessitated the change in the first place. But we now have a pretty good sample size and this experiment doesn't work.  You know what does work for basically every other league at every level of basically every sport in the world? Playoffs. Bad for business? I don't think so. Will you watch the BCS title game this year? Sure. How many of the next best 15 bowls will you watch? Three? Four? How many of the 15 games would you watch in a 16-team tournament? Twelve? Thirteen? Tell advertisers that viewership will be roughly 3-4 times what it is currently and see how bad for business a playoff would be.

The AP recently named their preseason All-America team and for the first time in a long time, the men's team included a freshman. That sound you hear is the death-knell of such pre-season voting. I officially bad pre-season All-Conference and All-American voting. This is even more of a complete guess than Mel Kiper's 2011 Mock Draft that he published in April of 2010. At least Kiper had seen the kids play before.

On the NFL's various expansion plans:

No American sports league shall expand to include European-based teams until travel from the west coast of North America takes as long to get to the eastern edge of Europe as it does to get to the east coast of North America today, and until the world stops using time zones. So don't hold your breath.

Currently the NFL absurdly forces two teams to play one game per season in London. The schedule is set so that these teams have their bye week after the trip. How would it work if we had teams playing in Europe regularly? Byes would have to be scheduled throughout the season for such travel. And European teams would have to have multiple byes to make up for all the games they have to travel to America for.

Another thought is that the NFL would have a third conference based in Europe. Not only would this not eliminate the constant travel problems, it also creates a talent-pool problem. Teams in the current NFC and AFC play inter-conference games each week. Would they continue to play these while the 16 new European teams only play one another all season? Certainly that would be a competitive imbalance, not to mention that adding many more teams would destroy the talent level in the league as whole.

Additionally, the NFL tried this before. NFL-Europe failed miserably. Why would this do any better?

Finally, the NFL will not expand to an 18-game regular season. Goodell parades around with a stern look on his face and a quick trigger for suspensions and fines when it comes to issues of player safety, but if he had to choose between player safety and more revenue, he'd double the ticket prices and have players play without pads and allow each team to have a sniper on the sidelines.

Yes, players could get injured in Week 1 just as likely as in Week 18, but that's not a good argument. Russian roulette is dangerous. Maybe you'll find the bullet on the first try, or maybe on the sixth. But why not negotiate for more chances to pull the trigger? By the end of an NFL season, teams are quite lucky to have the key players in tact. So lucky that the top seeds are even given an extra week just to try and recover a little. So why make them all beat themselves up for two more weeks when they already barely make it out standing up?

On professional sports labor standoffs:
Basically every time a labor agreement is set to end in any professional sport, both sides accuse the other of unfair negotiation tactics. Often there is a lockout or strike. And neither side really needs to budge because they're all millionaires (or billionaires) anyway. But the fans get screwed. We miss out on games, playoffs, and even entire seasons. So from now on, if the two sides cannot negotiate a new deal by the time the current one expires, all the issues being haggled over will be posted on the league's website. Each side will be given a paragraph per issue to make their case. Fan will then vote. The options will be A: Players get their way. B: 50/50. D: Owners get their way. No other options to confuse it. Find some fancy way to prevent ballot stuffing and post it online.

Commissioner of Sports on Jets Locker Room Controversy

2010-09-16T10:08:00.000-07:00

Recently a huge national story was made out of a complete non-story (I know, be more specific). In this case, it was a female reporter apparently feeling harrassed by athletes and coaches in the Jets' locker room. Never mind that this reporter was scantilly clad and markets herself as the sexiest woman in sports, so it is surprising that she is allegedly upset by getting the exact reaction she is aiming for. The issue for me is that a female reporter was in the locker room in the first place.

A few years ago, this debate reached its peak and female reporters were allowed to work in men's locker rooms despite all of the naked and half-naked men there. The thinking was that not allowing them in the locker room would create an unfair advantage for their male-reporter-competition. There is some logic to that. However, even as a news and sports producer for CBS, I think I would have been arrested had I entered the women's locker room at a WNBA game, tennis tournament, or other women's event. Rightfully so!

So we shouldn't have reporters in the opposite sex's locker rooms, but we have to allow reporters equal access to the athletes and coaches. Hmm. If only there was a room where the press could conduct interviews after a sporting event. An interview room, perhaps. What's that? There are interview rooms in basically every professional stadium in the world and the athletes and coaches go there after leaving the locker room every time anyway?

Well then, how about we just don't allow the press into locker rooms at all. Allow the players to celebrate or punch holes in the walls in private. Allow in-fighting and coaches' talks in private. Allow them time to take care of their personal hygiene, physical therapy, and dressing in private. Then interview them in the interview room.

Click here for previous issues tackled by the Commissioner of Sports.

What He Really Said: Reggie Bush

2010-09-14T17:27:00.000-07:00

Painfully out-of-character statements of apology can sometimes seem as insulting as the offense for which they are issued. Are we really to believe that a kid who can't spell his own name, but whose ability to dunk a ball in 7th grade got him C's on report cards for the next seven years until he was eligible for the draft, really wrote out prose so clear, precise and erudite and that it would make Hemingway blush?

What if the handlers wrote these statements in character? Or what if they didn't write them at all? What if the one apologizing actually did the apologizing?

Worn down by months of media attention, today Reggie Bush forfeited his 2005 Heisman Trophy and released the following statement:

"One of the greatest honors of my life was winning the Heisman Trophy in 2005. For me, it was a dream come true. But I know that the Heisman is not mine alone. Far from it. I know that my victory was made possible by the discipline and hard work of my teammates, the steady guidance of my coaches, the inspiration of the fans, and the unconditional love of my family and friends. And I know that any young man fortunate enough to win the Heisman enters into a family of sorts. Each individual carries the legacy of the award and each one is entrusted with its good name.

“It is for these reasons that I have made the difficult decision to forfeit my title as Heisman winner of 2005."

What he really said:

"One of the greatest tricks to hooking up with chicks in my life was winning the Heisman Trophy in 2005. I mean, I did alright before because I was pretty much the shit in high school and then I went to USC and we ruled that place. I didn't go to class...I didn't have to pay for anything... I pretty much just worked out, studied film, practiced, hooked up, and made dudes look stupid like that guy from Oregon that I juked out that they keep showing on ESPN. But then when I won the Heisman, man the women I started hooking up with were on another level. Have you seen Kim Kardassian's ass? And any dude that wins the Heisman gets the same kinda women. I mean Chris Weinke was a nasty looking dude and he was getting Heisman action. Actually, not "any dude" because Ty Detmer was supposedly like a monk or something. But even Tebow got down. You saw that picture with that girl. Sure, you're "just friends," Tim. I'm just friends with Mayra Veronica, too. And I have tons of sex with my friend, too.

"But let's face it. I cheated my ass off at USC. We got a house, man. Those fools at Oklahoma got busted for getting paid to work at a car dealership that they didn't work at. I got a house. So anyway, everyone's freaking out about it, and the Heisman groupies move on pretty quickly anyway, so I am just gonna give that shit back. Hell, I don't need it anymore. I won a Super Bowl. Plus, I don't think Mayra even knows what the Heisman is. And let's face it, that little dude got me hooked into the Kardassians and those chicks are psycho. Huh, that's funny. You win the Heisman, you get the hot, crazy sister in a family of groupies. You win the NBA title like Odom, and you get the ugly, chubby, crazy sister. And then the Super Bowl gets you whatever the hell you want, although I think I need to upgrade.

"It is for these reasons that I have made the "difficult" decision to forfeit my title as Heisman winner of 2005. Plus, I was 'roided up the whole time, so it doesn't really count anyway. Also, I am sorry that I got caught."

Tour de France 2010: Rest Day Recap 2

2010-07-21T19:48:00.000-07:00

Setting the Stage: Stages 1-8
Before the Tour, we were supposed to believe that the 2010 Tour de France would be a showdown between 7-time champion American Lance Armstrong of Team Radio Shack and 2-time champion Spaniard Alberto Cantador of Team Astana. I'm not sure how many people really thought Armstrong still had the juice to go toe-to-toe with the world best stage racer, but then I suppose there weren't many people who thought he'd live through his bout with testicular/lung/brain cancer, or who thought he'd become a professional cyclist again, or a good cyclist again, or win the Tour de France...seven straight times. The guy is good at confounding expectations.

Early on in the 2010 Tour, it looked like Armstrong may have had the legs to compete among the leaders, but he didn't have the luck. A series of badly timed crashes knocked him out of the running and by the first rest day, 8 stages in, the actual picture of what the final podium might look like was beginning to take shape. Australia's Cadel Evans of BMC Racing was in the lead, 2009 runner-up Luxembourger Andy Schleck of SaxoBank was in his familar 2nd-place spot, and 2010 champion Cantador was nipping at both of their heals in third. Most of the other expected contenders were all within a few minutes of the lead.

Week 2 Highlights
Stage 9: Evans moved into the over all lead after stage 8 simply by surviving that brutal day in the main pack of contenders and having the previous over all leader, Sylvain Chavanel, drop back early in the day. He is an excellent time trial racer and had a lead of 1:01 over Cantador, so his goal was probably to simply shadow Cantador for the next 10 stages and not allow him to get away, rather than to attack him and gain time. Whatever his stategy may have been, Evans' poor history while wearing the yellow jersey turned out to be a harbinger of things to come.

The stage covered somewhere in the neighborhood of 16,000 feet of climbing (the equivalent of riding over halfway up Mt. Everest) in the Alps, including the famous Col de la Colombiere and Col de la Madeleine. The over all favorites ("general classification" or "GC") were not expected to attack much this early in the Tour, especially with a long descent at the end of the stage, unless one of them showed weakness and could be shed from the pack. Three-quarters of the way through the stage, and halfway up the Madeleine, the GC men were sticking together and allowing a breakway group to hold a small lead.

But when SaxoBank and Astana took up the pace-making to support their stars, the peloton broke apart. Astana's Alexander Vinokourov made the first bold attack away from the GC men before relenting to the hill and falling back into the pack, but the chase caused by Vino's attack was enough to unhitch Evans from the group and his dream of wearing Yellow in Paris was over. It was later revealed that he was riding after breaking his elbow three days earlier in a Stage 7 crash, but injury or not, the Yellow jersey was Schleck's for the taking if he could hold his 41-second lead on Cantador.

After a flurry of attacks by the two titans that separated them from the rest of the field, but not from one another, they eased up and let the rest of the remaining GC men rejoin them. The elite of the race would be splintered into multiple groups over the top of the Madeleine with a long descent into the finish to test their nerves. Schleck and Cantador would eventually run down the breakaway group finishing only two seconds behind them, putting no less that 50 seconds between themselves and their closest GC competitors. Schleck was now in first over all, Cantador second, and Spain's Sammie Sanchez, Russia's Denis Menchov, Belgium's Jurgen Van Den Brouck, and American Levi Leipheimer rounded out the top 6, all within 3:59 of the lead. Frenchman Anthony Charteau took over the Polka Dot climber's jersey after surviving the day in the breakaway. Evans dropped all the way to 18th, nearly 8 minutes off the pace.

Stage 10: Three things were certain on this Bastille Day stage that led the Tour over its last three Alpine climbs and down into the rolling hills in the middle of the country: the day would be won by someone from a breakway group, the GC men would not attack one another so the standings would likely remain unchanged, and a lot of French riders would get into the break to go for glory on the national holiday. All three came to pass, but it wasn't a Frenchmen who took home the stage win, as the Portuguese Sergio Paulihno of Radio Shack stole the win at the line. In fact, the top Frenchman was only 4th, 1:29 behind Paulihno.

Stage 11: Finally out of the Alps, the sprinters were expected to have their day again as long as the peloton would be able to run down the inevitible early breakway. American sprinter Tyler Farrar or Garmin had had a tough Tour to that point, breaking his wrist nearly before he even started the month of racing, and his task of winning stages got even tougher after teammate Robbie Hunter retired from the race with a broken elbow.

It was supposed to be a relatively predictable, routine stage: breakway early, sprinters' teams reel them in, lots of wind, rolling hills, sprinters battle it out for the stage win. And while that is just how it played out, there was plenty of drama. Brit Mark Cavendish of HTC-Columbia won the stage thanks to the lead-out (think: lead-block by a fullback in football) of teammate Mark Renshaw, but it was Renshaw's brutal headbutting (technically legal) and then cutting-off of Tyler Farrar (not legal) right near the finish that made headlines. The dangerous tactics got Renshaw booted from the Tour and left Cavendish without his best weapon in the sprints to come at the end of the Tour. Italian Alexander Pettachi finished just enough places ahead of Thor Hushovd to take the Green sprinters'/points jersey away from the Norwegian.

Stage 12: Though there were no major climbs in this stage (five Category 2 and 3 climbs though), it was not expected to be a good day for the sprinters, but rather than a breakway group might survive. With the Pyrenees looming for the next day, the GC men were not expected to do much attacking either until perhaps the day's final climb, a very steep but short Cat 2.

Vinokourov, always a threat to abandon team tactics and ride selfishly, was in an early break with a few other highly placed riders, so the GC men were never going to let them get away. As the breakway fell apart and the GC men came chasing as a group, Vino was the only one to survive the break to within about 2 miles of the finish line, and then things got dicey. Despite that his own teammate was alone in the lead, Cantador (also not one to worry too much about team tactics and etiquette) attacked and got away from his GC contenders. He actually caught and passed his teammate in the final 1/2 mile, cutting just :10 out of Schleck's over all lead.

With so little time left in the stage to gain time on his true rivals, the bold attack of his own teammate by Contador seems to indicate that there may be a rift on Astana between their two best and most famous riders. Sound familiar? Was Cantador concerned about Schleck and feeling more desperate to erase his lead? Did he simply prefer to ride the race from the front?

Farrar was unable to finish the stage as his broken wrist proved too painful after he'd impressively survived on it for over 10 stages.

Stage 13: Vinokourov wouldn't have long to wait to get back the glory that his teammate stole from him in Stage 12. The sprinters' teams helped bring back an early three-man break within the last 6 miles, but just as they did, another attack was launched by six riders, and Vinokourov was the only one of them with the legs to outlast the peloton. Vino took the win, and Cavendish won the sprint by the peloton, with Pettachi and Hushovd finishing 3rd and 8th, flip-flopping the Green jersey back onto the Italian's back for Stage 14. Cavendish's win moved him up into third in the Green jersey competition.

Stage 14: The showdown between Schleck and Cantador was finally ready to begin in earnest. Finally in the Pyrenees, the riders would spend the next four days climbing over massive mountain peaks and passes, and the two leaders were expected to shed their competitors quickly. Stage 14 featured a summit finish on a Cat-1 climb, the highest categorized climb. But it also featured an HC climb just before it, which is off the scale for measuring the length, height, and grade of climbs.

To this point, Astana and SaxoBank (even without Frank Schleck) had done a fair job of protecting and supporting Cantador and Schleck, but they had also shown that they didn't really need much help anyway. Astana's brutal pace-making over the second half of the stage had reeled in almost all the riders from an early breakway, and had also kept the GC men in check - unable to get enough pace up to try an attack. Eventually the lead group was whittled down to a select group (Schleck, Cantador, Sanchez, Menchov, Van Den Brouck, Leipheimer, and Gessink - all of the top 7). Schleck and Cantador again began attacking in the last 3 miles of the summit-finish. Neither able to shake the other, they essentially stopped and let Sanchez and Menchov get away, seemingly content to simply finish together and not worry about what anyone else did. The two escapees only gained 14 seconds on the leaders, and the leaderboard remained unchanged.

Stage 15: With a very tough day of climbing in this stage, including a final climb up the HC Porte de Bales (6000 feet of climbing for 12 straight miles) and then a hair-raising descent into the finish, we expected some fireworks. Boy did we get them!

The race did not begin in earnest until they reached the Porte de Bales, and then all hell broke loose. France's Thomas Voekler had escaped a breakway group and was alone in front, with SaxoBank leading the peloton on the chase that would soon erase basically the whole breakaway. But as Schleck lost his last pace-setting teammate with 15 miles remaining (approximately 3 more miles of the HC climb), and Cantador still had three with him, Schleck had no choice but to attack to separate Cantador from his mates. Cantador was able to answer, as were the next three in the standings, but only them. After about 1/2 mile, this attack relented and some of the other elites were able to rejoin the group, including Vinokourov and Leipheimer.

But just as they did, Schleck attacked again and this time he seemed to have caught Catador by surprise. Vino was able to stay with Schleck, but Cantador struggled to find another gear to follow the attack. But before he was put into any real stress, Schleck's chain popped off his bike and he stopped dead to fix it. In the meantime, Cantador and the rest of the GC men flew by him and away, going hard over the last two miles of the climb and into the finish, taking 39 seconds away from Schleck and stealing the Yellow jersey from him, despite a heroic solo fight through the broken GC contenders trying to stay with Cantador, Sanchez, and Menchov over the top.

During the Yellow jersey award ceremony after the stage, Cantador received a good amount of boos from the crowd for what some consider an unsportsmanlike attack. Cantador was later quoted as saying he didn't know what had happened to Schleck so he attacked, but as Lance Armstrong said the next morning, Cantador was 50 feet behind him and had a direct view of Schleck. He knew exactly what had happened. There is debate about the etiquette in this situation. Some say it is a race and it is not Cantador's fault that Schleck's chain fell off. But others say that the protocol there is to continue on, but not surge, at least until race-radio announces that Schleck is back on the bike.

By way of comparison, in Stage 15 of the 2003 Tour, Lance Armstrong made an strong attack up a final climb and escaped Jan Ulrich, Tyler Hamilton and the rest of his contenders. As he rounded a corner, his handlebar hooked into a woman's purse and Armstrong went down. Ulrich and Hamilton could be seen on camera going by Armstrong as he struggled to get up, and then they eased up their pass (Hamilton even putting an arm out to signify to the rest of the GC pack to ease up). Armstrong recovered, caught and blew by them and went on to win the stage and clinch the Tour thanks to the huge time he gained on that climb.

The precedent set time and time again is to not attack in such a situation, and Cantador attacked. Just as his attack of then-teammate Armstrong in the 2009 Tour, and his attack of teammate Vinokourov earlier this year, Cantador continued to show questionable sportsmanship. Last year he quieted his critics by winning by such a large margin that his move against Armstrong proved inconsequential, and now in the lead, we might expect the same to happen again. If not for this quote from Schleck after the stage: "I can't tell you if it was fair or not, but I would not have raced like that. My stomach is full of anger right now and I want to take my revenge." You think the final climbs next week might be interesting?

Stage 16: To round out the second week of racing, the Tour visited some of its most brutal climbs, the Col d'Aspin and Col de Tourmalet, but those were only two of four brutal climbs (two Cat-1's and two HC's). With nearly 100 miles still to ride (after going over the Col d'Aspin), the peloton had already been shattered with such big names as Armstrong, Vinokourov, Bradley Wiggins, Roman Kreuzinger, Ryder Hesjedal, Sandy Casar, and Carlos Sastre in an all-star breakway.

As they started up the Tourmalet, Armstrong showed that this may have been the stage he had in mind when he said a week earlier that he wanted a stage win in the Pyrenees. He attacked the lead group, splitting it up even further. As they made their way up the HC Col d'Aubique, Armstrong's group was down to only five and they were attacking constantly; their lead over the main field had stretched to 8:15. They were joined by Casar and American Chris Horner on the descent leading into the day's final climb with just under 30 miles remaining.

After the breakway expanded to 9 riders with 25 miles to go, over the final climb and leading the field by nearly 10 minutes, Carlos Barredo attacked the breakway and eventually put over 40 seconds between himself and Armstrong's group. But in the final miles, Horner and Armstrong helped carry the remaining breakway riders until they finally caught Barredo with just 1/3 mile remaining. Armstrong's dream of one last stage win was dashed as he was out-sprinted at the line, but his brilliant attacking carried the entire breakaway the whole day and Armstrong proved himself once again to be a formidable champion.

What's To Come?
Cantador leads Schleck by :08 in the Yellow jersey chase. Sanchez is third (2:00) and Menchov 4th (2:13)

Stage 17: Once more to the Col de Tourmalet, this time from the other (harder) approach, and this time with a summit finish. This may be Schleck's last time to show us that anger in his stomach and get any time on Contador. Most believe Cantador will be able to make up as much as 2:00 in the final time trial if needed, so Schleck cannot afford to wait for a last minute attack, he'll have to break Cantador early and get away - which isn't something we've ever seen anyone do.

Stage 18: A day for the sprinters, Schleck can't expact to gain any time on Contador on this pancake-flat stage...unless Contador crashes and Schleck gives him the same treatment he received in Stage 15 (incidentally, I would bet that if that happened, Schleck would sit up and wait for Cantador).

Stage 19: A 30 mile, completely flat time trial that will likely provide Cantador with another stage win unless Schleck channels his inner-Fabian Cancellara. Or unless Cancellara wins it again, of course.

Stage 20: Typically more of a parade into and around Paris for the GC men than a race, this stage could end up actually meaning quite a bit. Schleck may be close enough to contend with Cantador. And Cavendish may be close enough to Hushovd and Pettachi to make it a three-man race for the Green jersey, not just two.

Predictions
Yellow/Individual: Cantador by between 1:00 and 1:30
Green/Points: Hushovd
Polka Dot/Climber: Anthony Charteau
White/Youth: Schleck
Team: Radio Shack

Tour de France 2010: Rest Day Recap 1

2010-07-12T18:37:00.000-07:00

It looks like the 2010 Tour de France won't exactly live up to it's Lance vs. Cantador bidding, but it may end up being even better.

Pre-Race Build-Up
When Lance Armstrong retired from cycling in 2006 after winning seven straight Tours de France, it was Spain's Alberto Cantador that took up the mantle of the world's greatest road cyclist, and he did it for Armstrong's old team and manager, Discovery and Johan Bruyneel. Catador won the 2007 Tour and looked primed to start his own streak. Discovery dropped their sponsorship of the team however, and Bruyneel took his team to Astana, rebuilding the team after it had been decimated by doping violations.

The sins of the prior team management and athletes haunted Astana in 2008 as they were banned from the Tour de France, despite that no one on the team or running the team had been around when the doping had occurred. So Cantador was prevented from defending his title, and a somewhat lackluster 2008 Tour was won by Carlos Sastre.

Armstrong came back out of retirement for the 2009 season and joined Bruyneel with Astana, but he openly said at the time that the team's leader was Cantador, who had developed into the world's greatest climber, an exceptional time trialist, and a master tactician. He was simply the best rider in the world and Armstrong wanted to support him and help raise the profile of his own cancer-fighting efforts. However Armstrong's fame and the surprisingly high level at which he was riding after three years off were clear problems for the team and a rivalry developed between the two champions.

After six stages of the 2009 Tour, Armstrong was placed above Cantador in the overall standings, though he still insisted he was riding in support of Cantador. After all, what happens in the first week is generally only a footnote to how things finish up. That said, when Cantador attacked on a climb in stage 7, carrying two rival riders away and pushing his own teammates (Armstrong, Levi Leipheimer, and Andreas Kloden) down in the standings, it was considered against protocol, especially since the team had been specifically directed by their manager to not make such a move. So Cantador bolted away, Saxobank's Frank and Andy Schleck went with him, and Armstrong stayed back to prevent other rivals from bridging the gap along with him, and a serious schism was formed within the team.

For the remainder of the 2009 Tour, Armstrong dutifully played the role of support rider, and those on the team in his camp did the same. Cantador went on to a sizeable win in the 2009 Tour. Afterwards, he cut the last tenuous ties to Armstrong by badmouthing him in post-race interviews and that spelled the end of that generation of Team Astana. Armstrong and Bruyneel went on to form Team RadioShack for 2010 and took eight of the nine riders from Astana with them (Cantador being the lone hold-out, of course).

Much of the pre-2010 Tour press billed this race as a final showdown between the retiring Lance Armstrong and the reigning Alberto Cantador. And as great as that story might have been, it was not to be. But it's probably not even the most intriguing of plots.

Would Cantador's reformed Astana team be strong enough to support him?
Could Astana stay clean with the management and primary rider (Alexander Vinokourov) just coming off of two-year bans for doping?
Is Cantador so strong that he doesn't need support anyway?
Can two loose cannons like Vinokourov and Cantador co-exist or will Vino try to hijack the team like he did from Jan Ullrich on T-Mobile?
Is Armstrong still strong enough to truly compete?
Isn't Cantador's true rival Andy Schleck?
Can Cadel Evans get over the hump and win it all on a new team with George Hincapie at his side?
Aside from Cantador's dominance, this appears to be one of the deepest talent pools perhaps of all time, with no less than 11 reasonable picks to win (Cantador, Armstrong, Leipheimer, Christian Vandevelde, Schleck, Evans, Frank Schleck, Bradley Wiggins, Ivan Basso, Denis Menchov, and Michael Rogers).
How many stages can Mark Cavendish win, and will Tyler Farrar finally get one?
Cavendish vs. Thor Hushovd in the Green jersey competition.
Who is the next great American to emerge (Leipheimer, Vandevelde, Chris Horner, Farrar, David Zabriskie)?
Three American teams for the first time ever.
Will Fabian Cancellara really have a motor on his bike during the Prologue and time trial?
How long will Cancellara hang onto the Yellow jersey after his certain win in the Prologue?

Now a week later, many of these questions have been answered, but the biggest ones have not been, and perhaps the most interesting storyline that no one thought of has emerged: what if Armstrong falls out of contention in week one and then just starts attacking like a mad-man and blows the whole race apart later?

Week 1 Highlights
Prologue: Cancellara wins (predictably). Armstrong finishes ahead of Cantador. Andy Schleck stumbles out of the gate and loses 32 seconds to Cantador (worst start among all general classification favorites).

Stage 1: Mark Cavendish and Tyler Farrar are among dozens caught in crashes including a massive one right near the end. Both miss out on the final sprint (won by Alessandro Petacchi). Cancellara retains the Yellow jersey.

Stage 2: France's Sylvain Chavanel escapes the peloton, wins the stage by nearly three minutes and takes over the Yellow jersey. The stage is filled with crashes once again. Vandevelde is out with broken ribs. Farrar breaks his wrist but will continue. Armstrong, both Schlecks, Cantador, Kloden, Hincapie, Wiggins and other favorites all crash as well. Cancellara "neutralizes" the field, asking other riders not to attack with so many being caught in crashes (essentially preventing his own chances of keeping the Yellow jersey and keeping Evans from gaining huge time on his rivals since he remained unscathed).

Stage 3: A brutal cobblestone-filled stage takes its toll as Chavanel pops a tire three times, abruptly ending his reign in Yellow. Armstrong loses time to Cantador after a flat tire of his own. Thor Hushovd survives the cobbles to win the final sprint and take a commanding lead in the Green jersey competition as most of his rivals are content to just survive this stage. Evans and Andy Schleck beat Cantador by nearly a minute. Vinokourov dutifully plays the role of "domestique," supporting Cantador for nearly the entire stage...before suddenly leaving him in the dust near the end, allowing Wiggins to gain 20 seconds on Catador. Frank Schleck is out with broken ribs.

Stage 4: The sprinters have their day on a flat stage. Petacchi wins again, surging past Cavendish with Hushovd sitting on Cavendish's wheel, but Hushovd retains a commanding Green jersey lead. Cancellara retains Yellow. With Farrar unable to sprint yet, his two leadout men get the chance to open up and go for the win. Julian Dean places 2nd and Robbie Hunter is 5th.

Stage 5: Another flat stage, but Cavendish is able to put it all together finally and blows everyone away in the sprint. Surprisingly, Dean and Hunter set up Farrar this time, but he only finishes 10th. Hushovd and Cancellara keep their jerseys, with Jerome Pineau still the only rider to wear the Polka-dot climbers jersey this year.

Stage 6: Cavendish puts his stamp on this flat stage as well, winning his second straight stage and establishing himself as the fastest man in the field again. Farrar takes second. Four Astana riders seemingly take the day off (combined they lost around 27:00 to the field), perhaps preparing for the mountains coming in Stage 7. Cancellara, Hushovd, and Pineau retain their jerseys.

Stage 7: The riders see their first serious climbs of the 2010 Tour, though this is only considered a low-mountain stage going over six categorized climbs: 3, 4, 3, 2, 2, and 2 (1 being the hardest). Cancellara was dropped from the peloton on the first serious climb-attack, but recovered later. He was never expected to survive the mountains in the lead. Pineau defends his climbers jersey admirably, joining an early breakaway group to capture huge amounts of points on each of the first five climbs.

On the final climb, Astana tkes over the pace-making and blows the peloton apart (that rest in Stage 6 came in handy!). Chavanel is able to breakaway from the peloton, reclaiming the Yellow jersey and the over all lead (though he was allowed to go because he is not considered a great threat in the lond run). None of the general classification contenders really push hard or are pushed hard, and all finish together.

Stage 8: Finally tested against the high Alps, the field is blown apart. Armstrong crashes three times, once just as the peloton begins powering up the massive category 1 climb up Col de la Ramaz. Four teammates stay back to guide him back into the peloton, but by the time they do, the leaders have already broken away and Amrstrong has used far too much energy just trying to get back in the race. In the end, he loses nearly 12 minutes on the leaders.

This stage features four categorized climbs, including two Cat-1's (4, 4, 1, 3, 1). Cadel Evans is caught in one of the crashes that also catches Armstrong, but Evans is actually thrown from the bike, taking some cuts to his knee, hip and elbow. Evans' fall (4 miles into the race) is far earlier than Armstrong's bad fall, so he recovers nicely.

Besides Armstrong, all of the other major contenders stay together throughout the stage, with Astana establishing themselves as the Tour's strongest team by far. Vinokourov and Daniel Navarro carry Cantador and the rest of the contenders nearly all the way to the finish before any of them is able to make any serious attacks.

Cantador runs down the first few attacks in the final miles, but he is unable to stay with Andy Schleck, who escapes the pack to win the stage and pick up 10 seconds on Cantador and the rest. But more importantly, he shows he is able to handle a serious mountain stage without teammates helping, specifically his brother, Frank.

In the end, Evans moves up into the over all lead and the Yellow jersey. Schleck slides into 2nd, 20 second back. Cantador is third, 1:10 back. And the rest of the major contenders (sans Armstrong) all sit in the top 15, all within about three minutes of the lead.

Stage 9 and Beyond
With Armstrong all but out of the running for the win, he said after Stage 8 that he would now just have fun, enjoy his last Tour, support new RadioShack leader Levi Leipheimer, and try to win some stages. This brings up an interesting problem for the rest of the field: if Lance Armstrong (now nearly 13 minutes off the pace) makes a bold move on a climb, don't the leaders have to go with him? Typically a rider who is that far back is not a threat and his moves wouldn't be countered, but this is Lance Armstrong. You can't let him go, but you also don't know if you can stay with him...so is it worth it to get totally burned out tracking him down, when you may not be able to recover well in later stages as a result?

Regardless of whether Armstrong or another American wins over all, isn't this exactly the type of role we would want our heroes to be in? Complete wild cards. Armstrong won't hinder Leipheimer's chances to win; he is the consumate teammate. But don't you think he would love to stick it to Cantador somehow? I can see him attacking constantly over the next two weeks, forcing Cantador to be on the defensive all the time, and wearing him out.

And besides this and all those unanswered questions from above, we have these interesting storylines to follow now as well...

Can Andy thrive without Frank?
Can Farrar overcome broken wrist to finally win a stage?
Can anyone touch Cavendish now that he's back?
Will Vinokourov be the good teammate to Cantador or will he be his old reckless self?
Will Evans, who has a history of struggling to race in the lead, crack in Yellow again?
Can Leipheimer get over the hump now that he is the unquestioned leader of Bruyneel's team?
Now that the top three realistic pre-race favorites are 1-2-3, how will their teams' tactics change?

Looking Ahead
Stage 9: 5 categorized climbs (4, 1, 2, 1, HC) including Col de la Colombiere (1) and Col de la Madeleine (HC). Finishes with a long descent, but the climbs are so tough that this could break the field apart, especially if Armstrong or another contender gets aggressive. How will they do the day after a rest day?

Stage 10: 3 categorized climbs (1, 3, 2) but a long descent into the finish that may allow dropped riders to recover, which could prevent major attacks by contenders. It's a good race profile for a breakway to survive all the way to the finish. July 14 is Bastille Day in France, so watch out for patriotic Frenchmen in the breakaways (I'm looking at you, Sylvain Chavanel, Christophe Moreau, and Thomas Voekler).

Stage 11: Flat stage that will favor the sprinters.

Stage 12 and 13: 5 categorized climbs each, but none greater that a Cat-2, so these could both end up being bunch sprints unless a breakway gets clear. The contenders will likely use these stages as "recovery" days before the coming attacks in the Pyranees.

Stage 14: After a long, flat run-up, this stage finishes with two brutal climbs, an HC and a summit finish on a Cat-1. Contenders will definately use this stage to separate out the weaker riders, but there may not be much aggressive attacking this early on. Look for the true Yellow jersey hopefuls to show themselves after this stage and Cantador and Schleck to hammer away at one another all day.

Stage 15: 4 categorized climbs culminating in an HC climb up Port de Bales before a nasty descent into the finish. Probably another stage to distance the leaders from the pack, but not from one another unless Schleck or Cantador get especially aggressive.

Stage 16: 2 Cat-1's and 2 HC's (including Col d'Aspin, Col du Tourmalet, and Col d'Aubisque) make this a terrifying stage, but the last climb is nearly 30 miles from the finish, so the field may have time to get back together. There is a rest day the following day, which could play into how aggressive the general classification riders get.

Stage 17-21: Come back next week for more.

Daniel Tosh On Soccer

2010-07-01T18:20:00.000-07:00

Daniel Tosh nicely summed up what most Americans think of soccer on his Comedy Central show, Tosh.0 this week. He was responding to a well-traveled video of a goalie who did cartwheels just before a penalty kick in an attempt to distract the shooter. Needless to say, the shooter scored very easily and then did cartwheels around the goalie as he walked off the field in shame.

Here's Tosh on soccer:

"[The goalie,] Nana thought that psych-out routine would help in the goal, but nothing can help me care about soccer. 'Oh, it's the most popular sport in the world to play!' Probably because it's cheap to play. It only takes a ball.

"But once every four years America pretends to care about it. And yes, I called it 'soccer.' Don't correct me because I don't care what they call it in other lands; I speak American. Sorry world, we already have football, and it's way better. It's played by 300 pound men for 8 seconds at a time. Not five-foot-six-inch fairies lightly jogging for three hours, or however long your game is. Buy a scoreboard.

"It's hard for me to get into a sport that I mastered at the age of seven. Excuse me for not being able to get revved up for this corner kick that never works. Hurray! The game ends without a single goal! I wanna kill myself when an NBA team doesn't break 100.

"Maybe there'd be more scoring if they weren't flopping all the time. Hey hooligans, instead of killing players that screwed up, can you murder the ones that fall down crying because their toe got stepped on?

"The only thing good about soccer is the movie Ladybugs. That's a classic. Don't try to redo it Hollywood.

"I love women's soccer; it's a beautiful game. And America is actually good at it. Probably because we're the only country that allows women to wear shorts. But it's nice to have an activity that terrorist countries can excel at. Enjoy your fifteen minutes, Algeria. Then go back to being #1 at car bombs.

"Yes or no? The only reason you're beating us is because our best athletes are playing real sports. You think LeBron James might make an OK goalie?"

So the man rambles a bit and his train of thought seems to get derailed here and there, but you have to respect a man that calls out an entire nation as terrorists and also gives props to Rodney Dangerfield in nearly the same breath.

The Commissioner of Sports Fixes Soccer

2010-06-28T15:54:00.000-07:00

Alright, the World Cup is over, so I will finally tell you why it is stupid, once and for all. And as the Commissioner of Sports, I will provide solutions when necessary.

"It's not over!" you say. Yes, it is. It was over the moment the clock ran out...er...it was over the moment the ref arbitrarily blew the final whistle in overtime between the U.S. and Ghana on Saturday.

Terminology. "It's not soccer. It's football." Not in America. That isn't jingoistic rhetoric. In America, we call it soccer, not football. Just as we call it an elevator, and not a lift. It is fine for most of the rest of the world to call it "football" or some direct translation thereof. All of their other words are fine too. But in American English, we have some of our own terms. It isn't a draw, a pitch, and a side. It's a tie, a field, and a team. I get that to die-hard soccer fans, using American terms is a sign of ignorance of the sport. I'm not ignorant of it; I'm just not British.

The Football Attitude. To many soccer fans, people who do not love the sport simply do not understand it or have not given it a chance. We are too dumb to appreciate the subtlety, the artistry, the athleticism, and the finer points of the "beautiful game." Not so. I fully appreciate how gifted and fit these guys are. Soccer highlights are always among the best on Sportscenter every night. I just don't really like it. I could go to a restaurant and try everything on the menu, and while I would see how much went into all of the dishes, I simply wouldn't like some. They're no more fit or coordinated or intelligent than athletes of many other sports, though it does take immense fitness, coordination, and intelligence to be great at it.

Scoring. It is not that the games are low scoring that is annoying to many casual sports fan or to those who dislike soccer, it is that there is not even the threat of scoring for 90% of a match. I am fine with a 1-0 baseball game or hockey game. I'd probably get a kick out of a 10-3 football game (only three scores). Because in those sports there is always the threat of a score at every turn. Baseball is very slow-paced, but a run might be scored on every single pitch, 200-300 times a game. In football, every snap of the ball could result in a touchdown - for either team, in fact. Goals are hard to come by in hockey, but the goalie is in full-attention mode for probably 80% of the time the puck is in play in every single game. I said earlier that soccer makes for great highlights…then there are the other 89 minutes. Each successive pass builds up tension and is (ideally) designed to move defenders one way or another until an opening forms for a scoring chance, but those chances only actually come 5-10 times per game over 90 minutes! Does any die-hard soccer fan really think it would be less interesting if a 2 goal lead with even 3/4 of a game remaining did not spell certain doom?

Solution: Shrink the field - Force teams to move the ball towards the goal in order to get it away from their own. There is far too much neutral space in the middle of the field that is no threat to either goal. Fewer players - you want open space to move around in, not overcrowded clusters (especially on the new, smaller field). 6-8 players per team (including the goalie) should be plenty. Expand the goal - the best players in the world can't find the thing more than once or twice a game. Don't make it taller because the goalie needs a reasonable chance to make saves, but make it wider. Scoring areas - Corner kick with no offensive deflection = 3 points. Shot from outside the box = 2 points. Shot from inside the box = 1 point. Penalty kick = 1 point. Free kick with no offensive deflection = 3 points. Any offensive deflection earns the amount of points based on where the deflector is standing. Encourage teams to take chances on shots...will you win with a less consistent but more lucrative long-range attack, or will you punch it inside where scoring comes easier but is worth less? How do you defend? Give space inside and pressure the deep shots more or turtle inside and allow more close-up shots? Over-and-Back - it is a turnover and a free kick for the other team if the offense takes the ball back across the mid-field line.

Ties. The World Cup is the grandest stage of supposedly the world’s grandest sport, and yet games can end in ties? In a tournament that decides who is the best in the world you can finish even with someone? This is not a “friendly.” This is the freaking World Cup. Additionally, because of the ties, there was a likely scenario in which the U.S. and England would have finished the group stage dead even on all tie-breakers (points, wins, goal differential, goals, etc.). How would they have determined which team would move on in this magnificent event? A freaking coin toss. Head-to-head result would have been the fourth tiebreaker!

Solution: No ties. The same rules that apply during the elimination round games should apply during the group stage games. Tie-breakers for determining position after the group stage: head-to-head result, goal differential, total goals scored, penalty kick shootout (rather than a coin toss).

The Ball. For some strange reason (money), FIFA uses a new ball for every tournament. They have standards for size and weight, but the exact materials and compositions of the balls vary. And apparently they vary greatly. Goalies apparently complain about it every time; that way it is absolutely never their fault when they get scored on. But this time the goalies didn't like it, the players didn't like it, and pretty much every team complained about it. FIFA is not exactly what you would call "responsive to its members' or fans' opinions," so for the first 2 weeks they ignored the whining from all sides. Then they finally came out and said that they acknowledge that some people didn't like the ball, but they're not doing anything about it. Once they feel that they sold enough of them, they're heroically demand that adidas redesign it for the next big tournament, whatever that is.

Solution: Go back to the black and white checkered ball. Picture a baseball. Picture a basketball. Picture a tennis ball. Picture a golf ball. Picture a football. Picture a soccer ball. Every other sport around the world seems to have figured out that you don't mess with the ball. Basketball tried it to disastrous effect and changed back midseason a few years ago. Take a lesson. Everyone hates the changes every time, so stop making changes. That checked ball that you pictured earlier, that we all played with as kids in every country and every socio-economic class around the world IS a soccer ball. Use it.

Stalling and Fake Injuries. Easily the most obnoxious thing about soccer is the flopping. It is illegal to take fake dives and stall excessively, but it is simply not enforced. Every sport has stalling techniques, but they are usually done within the game. A football team runs more or kneels on the ball when leading to keep the clock moving. Baseball players have extra meetings at the mound to allow a reliever time to warm-up. Basketball teams dribble the shot-clock out. Hockey teams send the puck the length of the ice to kill off penalty minutes. And soccer players dribble around and kick the ball into the offensive corner and make late substitutions with players as far away from the bench as possible to run time down. All fine. This isn't: leading 2-1 in overtime against the U.S. on Saturday, a Ghana player tried to clear a ball out of the zone in front of his goal but misfired badly. The ball went straight out of bounds, giving the U.S. the ball right back, still in a dangerous spot, and without the defense all set up yet. So this player, who was 10-15 feet from anyone else, fell to the ground motionless which forced a stoppage of play. Time ticked away as the referee came to check on him and then called the medics. They sauntered out with a stretcher, upon which this player sat completely upright, waited to be carried off of the field, then immediately stood up and asked to be allowed to reenter the game.

Solution: If a player is truly injured, he clearly needs to be allowed medical attention. However, if he is faking, his team should not benefit. If a player is hurt, he or his teammates can request a stoppage of play (kick it out of bounds or ask the opponents to do so if the ref doesn't notice...they do this already). But if play is stopped for an injury, that player must sit out for treatment and his team must either use a sub for him or play down a man for some period of time (2 minutes? 4 minutes?). This will help take care of dives when players roll around looking for calls, and it will help take care of phantom injuries used to stall late in games.

The Clock. The most inexcusable fault in soccer is that no one on the planet knows the time of the game except the head referee. The stadium and TV clocks are guesses. In the U.S.-Algeria game, the referee signaled that there would be 4 minutes of extra time (so he had stopped his watch for a total of approximately 4 minutes during that half for stalling, injuries, goal celebrations and game resets, substitutions, penalties, etc.). During extra time, the U.S. scored a goal. From the time it went in to the time he blew the whistle to restart play, 1:07 elapsed. Later there was a red card given (ejection) and the argument that caused it and the ensuing argument took another :56 seconds. So of the four minutes of extra time they were supposed to have, 2:03 of it was spent with the game stopped. Yet the ref arbitrarily called the game after 4:11 of extra time, stripping the Algerians of around two minutes of come-back time. There seems to be no rhyme or reason to when the clock is stopped and no accountability for the refs.

Solution: Wirelessly connect the ref's clock to the stadium clock. If the referee is upholding the clock-duties fairly and accurately, there is no problem. If he is not taking care of that duty properly, everyone will know. If it proves to be too much for him to watch every inch of the field plus the clock, have an official timekeeper who works off of the ref's whistle or hand signals or microphone (which they already use to communicate between head official and the line judges).

Technology. FIFA whines that they want to keep technology out of the officiating and keep the human element in. But the officials are already using wireless headsets through the games, so that argument is garbage. They are so totalitarian in their handling of the sport, they've now banned stadium replays on controversial calls after England and Mexico got shafted on Sunday and fans went nuts (which, admittedly, many other sports have done for years). Line-judges are basically there to watch for off-sides and they simply don't do a good enough job (ask the U.S. or Mexico about that). A goal scoring or not scoring can result in the loss of a game, a championship, a league membership, and millions and millions of dollars. The publicity these controversies stir up is not of more value than fair play. The field is too big and the play is too physical for one referee to adequately call the game.

Solution: There is already has a ball with a microchip in it that can digitally record when it crosses the goal line. This technology is used in some leagues and tournaments around the world. Use it. If every fan in the stadium and watching at home can see that a player was clearly offsides or a ball was across the line, why should the referee be the only one who doesn't know? A replay official can watch all plays and communicate to the head referee for all close goals and offsides. Side judges can focus only on balls out of bounds and fouls. Possible off-sides plays will be played out until the head ref gets word that there was an off-side player. If the goalie makes the save and plays on immediately, play on. If a shot goes wide and the goalie plays on, play on. If the replay official calls it offsides before the goalie plays the ball, it is a goal-kick as usual. If the possibly offsides play results in a goal, the goal announcement is held for the offsides call. These replays would essentially be instantaneous and would not slow the game down (ESPN has been showing off their instant-off-sides viewer all tournament long). A light can be placed behind the goal and can be lit when goals are scored (whether obvious or on replay).

“Soccer doesn’t need to change. It is the most popular sport in the world even with its perceived flaws. And it certainly doesn’t need America or to be Americanized at all.” Perhaps. Perhaps some of these changes are unnecessarily extreme. Perhaps the game doesn’t need to be Americanized. But it does need America.

The 1994 World Cup in the U.S. drew the largest crowds in World Cup history. They built new stadiums in South Africa to house the Cup this year and they are barely selling out with 35,000-40,000 fans. The Rose Bowl had over 100,000 people for each game. Most of Europe is within a single time zone or two of South Africa. So why are the games played so late at night there? So they can be seen at a reasonable hour in the U.S.

They want mainstream American money, but they will simply never get it with the game the way is today. Will they get it even with these changes? Probably not. Isn’t the game perfectly popular around the world? Sure. But just because the game is popular doesn’t mean it is not flawed. So are all of these changes necessary? Of course not. But instituting replay is. Using a micro-chip ball is. Standardizing the ball is. Policing fake injuries and dives is. Objectifying the game-clock is. Reviewing referee performance with some public transparency and removing poor refs is.

Crazy Man Hired By Lunatics To Cheer For The Dodgers

2010-06-10T10:51:00.000-07:00

Some people get paid a lot of money to be really, really bad at their jobs. Russian physicist and mystic Vladimir Shpunt (not pictured), for instance, was apparently paid six-figures to be a Dodger fan for the last five years, and they only won one playoff game.

Frank and Jamie McCourt hired Shpunt to sit on his couch in Boston and watch Dodger games while going all Marky-Mark on them and pumping positive vibes at the team. Shpunt claims that he had the ability to improve their performance from between 10%-15%, and he's a physicist, so it must be true.

The Dodgers should probably ask for their money back, considering that they are apparently broke and getting divorced. How broke? Well, remember that Jamie Carroll was their big off-season signing, and they drafted a kid in the first round this week that they knew wouldn't sign with the team. Thus they avoid having to pay a first-round bonus and salary. The draftee had already committed to playing quarterback (and pitching) at LSU, and said had announced that he wouldn't sign if he was drafted. And then the Dodgers drafted him.

If Shpunt got paid over a half of a million dollars over five years and the Dodgers only got one postseason win for it, I feel like I am owed a crapload of money by the New York Giants. They won Super Bowl XLII despite being double-digit underdogs and despite trailing with under two-minutes to go at their own 17-yard line. The upset was ridiculous and I called it in a column for CBS on the Friday before. I want my money. Or just a ring would be fine.

Though as crazy as Shpunt is for thinking that his cheering for the team from 3000 miles away made an impact (what did he think happened in the 350-400 games they lost in that span?), the real over-paid, utterly inneffective ones here are the McCourts. These two lunatics tried running a professional franchise, one of the world's greatest, with a ouija board and burning incense. The funny thing is that they even knew this whole enterprise was crazier than a family going to a Dodger game and thinking the bleachers are a good idea. They hid the Russian witch-doctor from the rest of the organization, paying him under the table and now each denies hiring him and insists that the other one did it.

(For those playing at home, yes that is Leo Tolstoy pictured above)

A Phew Philthy Phellows

2010-05-27T09:28:00.000-07:00

Philadelphia is known as a great sports-town. Despite going on a major-sports-championship drought from 1983-2008, before the Phillies finally won the World Series, each of their four franchises have enjoyed some consistent success mixed in with some major struggles. And through it all, they have had some of the most outspoken and loyal fans in all of sports (notice that Jimmy Rollins is leading the All-Star voting despite only playing in 12 games all season due to injury).

As a Mets and Giants fan however, I don't have a lot of appreciation for these teams, their players or their fans. So admittedly, perhaps I am not exactly the most objective person to be writing about them.

The Phillies, in particular, have been riding very high over the past few years, especially taking advantage of the struggles of the Mets. Would they have won the World Series in 2008 had the Mets not pulled off yet another magnificent collapse? Probably not. Does that mean they didn't deserve it? Of course they deserved it...they won the games. But in the midst of all these successes, a few chinks in their armor appear to be rearing their ugly heads. But given the mature, unbiased perspective that I come from, I am sure they are just coincidences.

Philadelphia fans have long been decried as being classless and crude, perhaps even predating the famous incident in 1968 when Eagles fans booed Santa Claus as he took the field for a halftime show and pelted him with snowballs. But in reality, can Philadelphia fans be any worse than fans from other cities? In Los Angeles and San Diego, where fans are notoriously laid back, I've seen opposing fans get punched and had drinks and food thrown at them. Once I was hit in the head with a plastic soda bottle at a Dodger game because David Wright hit a homerun. So it must be that Philadelphia fans get a bad rap, and it must be a coincidence that it was a Phillies fan who recently plead guilty to starting a fight with, and causing himself to vomit on, another fan and his children because that fan had asked the vomiter and his friends to refrain from spitting on and using foul language around his teenage daughters.

As for the Phillies themselves, they've had some great success with the bats over the past few years. Long-time Phillies Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, in particular, have become huge stars and carried them to that World Series title. Other more well-traveled players like Raul Ibanez have enjoyed the hottest stretches and most success of their careers with the Phillies as well. They must have quite a hitting coach, right? Or I guess it could have to do with the fact that they’ve been cheating for years (accused by many teams many times and then caught this month). Since their bullpen coach Mick Billmeyer was caught stealing signs with binoculars from the Rockies' catcher in early May, the team’s runs per game, batting average, and homerun totals have all dropped.

• Runs scored per game: Before - 5.40; After - 4.15; League Average - 4.48
• Homers per game: Before - 1.22; After - .85; League Average - .91
• Team Batting Average: Before - .273; After - .261; League Average - .257
(Note: the Phillies have played 13 games since this incident. 7 at their hitter-friendly home park, 1 at the hitter-friendly Coors Field, and 5 at pitcher-friendly Wrigley and Citi Fields.)

After the Rockies spotted Billmeyer using the binoculars in the first inning, they informed the ump who told Phillies manager Charlie Manuel between the first and second innings to knock it off. Manuel denied it was happening and the ump said he'd been spotted on camera. Then Manuel said that he was just checking on his own catcher's defensive setup...they do that a lot. The ump said no more. Then the same coach was spotted doing it again in the next inning. So he cheated, got caught, lied about it, immediately got called out for lying, and lied again. And didn't even stop cheating!

After the game, Manuel deflected the guilt away from his own team onto the Mets (despite that they weren't involved in this incident at all), saying the Mets must cheat because their home record is better than their away record (which incidentally, is pretty much standard). He then said, "(The Rockies complained) Because we beat them… Keep crying." Actually Charlie, I think they complained because they caught you on camera multiple times. And because you have a reputation of cheating, just ask the Dodgers and Yankees during last year's NLCS and World Series, and the Mets many times over the last few years (all accused the Phillies of illegally stealing signs with video cameras). Classy guy.

Last June, a small-time blogger wrote a piece about Raul Ibanez' incredibly hot start to the 2009 season and mused as to why the new Phillies leftfielder had had such a resurgence so late in his career. At the time he wrote it (June 10), Ibanez was 37 years old, had hit 20 homers and 55 RBI, with a .320 average in 228 at bats. Ibanez had only hit more than 24 homers in full season (often 600+ at bats) once in his 13-year career and his best batting average had only been .304. So among a number of possible reasons for this offensive explosion so late in the slugger's career, the blogger suggested such obvious explanations as the move to the hitter-friendly Citizen's Bank Park and steroids. Both were reasonable.

Ibanez apparently reads and responds to every remotely negative thing written about him on the internet (hi Raul!), so he called the blogger out and angrily denied the steroid accusations (that weren't ever actually made). So incensed was Ibanez, that he made national news out of a little blog piece that would have been read by maybe 100 people. The blogger had to appear on ESPN Outside the Lines the next day to defend his piece, and have noted newspaper journalists gang up on him and rail against his unprofessionalism and lack of journalistic integrity (note: he wasn't a professional journalist, but a fan, and never accused Ibanez of cheating. He only suggested that that might explain the numbers.).

How dare that blogger write what everyone was thinking! Incidentally, after that hot start, Ibanez went ice cold for the rest of the season after the "accusation," which must be a coincidence. His average had been 11.4 at bats between homers since coming to the Phillies. After June 10, that jumped to 19.4 at bats between homers. His batting average was .320 before and .232 after. This year? He's hitting .250 with 3 homers in 144 at bats (48.0 at bats per homer). So the facts that this guy was pointed out as going on the kind of heater that happens with steroid users, and then he immediately returned to his career averages after that attention was shined upon him, I’m sure that’s all coincidence.

So does that one player's massive drop in numbers after he's "accused" of taking steroids reflect on the team in general? Does the team's offensive slip since they were accused of cheating mean anything? Does that one fan's crude and disgusting behavior reflect on a whole city? Maybe not. Maybe they're all coincidences. And maybe it's a coincidence that it's all happening to the same team.

Maybe not.

Another Day, Another Miserable Heartbreak For One Sports Fan

2010-05-20T18:27:00.000-07:00

Sports fans love lists. "Greatest Catches," "Best Superbowls," "Worst Draft Picks." And we love hyperbole (see above examples). And I am no exception. So it is not without self-awareness that write that I was thinking earlier about writing about the 5 or 10 worst days in my life as a sports fan.

Certainly one would be August 11, 2005. I assume Carlos Beltran and Mike Cameron would rank this one #1 on their lists. That was the day I was in the right-centerfield bleachers at Petco Park, about as close as anyone else on the planet when those two men blindly dove face-first into one another, ending their seasons and the Mets' hopes for the next five years (and counting...).

The list was a little too depressing to really put into order, so I gave up trying (Shawn Livingston's knee, Danny Manning's knee, Ron Harper's knee, Kenny Rogers' ball four to Andruw Jones, Beltran's strike-out looking against the Cardinals, when I realized Tiki Barber is an asshole, when Edgardo Alfonzo put on someone else's uniform, when Floyd Landis got stripped of the Tour de France, etc.).

Today would have made the list. It might have been #1. But I'll come back to that.

Quite a day Lance Armstrong had today. Not only did he have to worry about literally saving his face because he was involved in a nasty crash in the Tour of California and had to take a bunch of stitches in his elbow and more just below his left eye, but he is also trying to figuratively save face as well, as former teammate Floyd Landis threw Armstrong under the bus as an alleged cheater.

To be honest, I can't imagine Armstrong is all that perturbed about the allegations. He's heard it before. In fact, I would venture that no human being has taken more blood tests in any 10 year period than Lance Armstrong has in the last 10 years. So many people are so sure he's a cheater because his near-miraculous comeback from testicular, lung, and brain cancer to such unimaginable highs has been so...well...miraculous. But despite all the doubts thrown in his face, and all the needles stuck into his veins, he's never failed a single test. Not one. So Lance, please don't make a fool of me for believing in you.

I ran cross country in college and during my freshman year I had to have a surgery that I wasn't really expected to recover fully from. I'd be able to walk and run and exercise and have a normal life, but I wasn't really supposed to be able to compete at that same DI level again. No one ever had, but then not many people had ever had that surgery yet either, so "Why not?" I thought. Of course I never became a NCAA Champion, or a conference champion. I never won another race or ever placed first on my own team. But I ran again, and I was faster than I had been before, and I can tell you without any hyperbole whatsoever that I would not have been able to if Lance Armstrong had not risen from the grave and been winning Tour de France after Tour de France at the same time.

So maybe one day the story will finally break that Armstrong has been cheating us all along. And if so, I don't know what I would think. I couldn’t forgive him for cheating, but I couldn't exactly forget that he had inspired me so deeply either. But I pray that that story never breaks and that until the day after I die all there ever were were allegations and negative tests, because I am just about out of heroes. Especially today.

After Armstrong won his seventh straight Tour and retired, most Americans let professional cycling drift back into anonymity. I think I was lucky that I had found so much love for the sport, not just the man who had carried it on his back through terrain as tricky and tumultuous as anything the Alps ever threw at him. I knew in 2006 that the sport was still in good hands and that there were lots of guys to root for. More importantly, there were lots of Americans to root for. Levi Leipheimer and George Hincapie were (and are) true greats, but that year Floyd Landis was truly spectacular at the Tour de France.

Imagine all those French people who were so incensed that an American had hijacked their race and their sport for most of a decade had to see him retire only to have a parade of new Americans come in ready to take over the family business. And then Landis went out and turned in what I have, on many occasions, called the greatest athletic performance I have ever seen in stage 17 and went on to win it all. Another year, another American. Of course soon after, it was revealed that he had failed a doping test and Landis was stripped of the title. He fought the result for years, took it to the highest authority in the world and lost, and through it all, I steadfastly supported his claims of innocence.

On April 1, 2008, I wrote on this blog, "Floyd Landis finished his appeal to the arbitration court of sports and their decision is expected in June. From what I know of his case, I don't think he did it."

On June 27, 2008, after the test results were upheld, I wrote, "I am a big fan of cycling, and I watched every second of that Tour, and I have read every word of the case against him and the case for him (yes, even the famed slide show presentation). That guy is innocent. I don't care what the test showed on the day he pulled off the greatest turnaround in sports history. The test the day before showed nothing. The test the day after showed nothing, and what Landis is alleged to have done would still show up long after the initial day he allegedly did it. It also would have had no physiological benefit had he done it the morning of a race (it is a long term technique that had not long term presence in his body according to multiple tests)."

On September 10, 2008, I wrote again, "I still feel that Landis was innocent of the charges levied against him...".

So what happened on May 20, 2010 that makes this all relevant again? Why is today such a bad day for me as a sports fan? Because today was that day that after four years of vociferous denials, Landis came clean and revealed that he had been cheating for basically his entire career.

I guess it's easy to be cynical and just assume that they're all cheating. Baseball players, football players, cyclists, sprinters...you name it. It's easy to look at Albert Pujols' seemingly sincere declaration that we can all rely on him to be the clean superstar to lead all of us, a weary mass of doubtful devotees and former fans, back to the glory days of squeaky clean stars and believable box scores. But the more we learn, the less we feel we can believe it, and the more we see that it wasn't all so clean back then anyway; we just didn't have reporters willing to blow the whistle.

Athletes cheat. It's old news; I know. I shouldn't be surprised about Landis; I know. I am the last one to the party; I know. Everyone assumes our heroes are cheats and it's gotten to the point where they don't even bother to pretend to be disgusted when they first find out anymore. Sports fans are jaded. "A-Rod, seemingly the last great, clean baseball star admitted to cheating and lying about it over and over? Hmm. Well, he's my fantasy third baseman and I'm hurting for RBI's this week, so what did he do today?" Reporters are all on the hunt for the next scandal to bring down a star, but fans are just kinda used to it and don't bat an eye.

And as a sometimes-professional sports writer over the past few years, I have tried really hard to not become jaded myself. That's one thing I hate about working in sports...you have to look for angles and stories, you can't just watch the games and enjoy. I was working the day the Mitchell Report was released and I wrote the story up for CBS and created a slideshow of all the big names and local stars named. That was another of the worst days of my sports-fan-life, and there weren't even really any big surprises in it for me. But just that cold realization that THAT many people had been cheating and that it was probably just the tip of the ice berg…that stung me.

We have all seen seen some of our greatest champions (love 'em or hate 'em) toppled and defamed. Some lesser stars but truly beloved figures as well. Mark McGwire, Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Marion Jones, Andre Agassi, Ivan Basso, Ato Boldon, Ken Caminiti, Tyler Hamilton, Paul LoDuca, Erik Zabel, Alex Rodriguez, Rafael Palmeiro, Jan Ullrich, Dennis Mitchell, Tim Montgomery, Alexander Vinokourov, Julius Peppers, Andy Pettitte, Roger Clemens, Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz.

I think what has helped me to keep from becoming completely jaded to all of this was that I hadn't had "my guy" get nailed. It's always been guys I hated (Bonds, Clemens) or just people who were big names, maybe even on my teams, but not my favorites (LoDuca, Vinokourov).

Maybe that's why when I read that SI article, I bought every word Pujols said. Sure athletes cheated, but no one I ever really loved so it never hit too close to home. But today one of "my guys" went down. Big time. And now I'm finally at that place where most fans seem to have been for years now. I don't know where I go from here because one of the ones I truly, truly believed was lying actually all along. Floyd Landis' admission of using performance enhancing drugs changed the way I look at things, and in my mind, added a lot of weight to what Pujols was already carrying.

Even today, Landis still insists that that fateful test back in 2006 was indeed a false-positive (ironically perhaps the only false-positive in a career of false-negatives). He says he did not use that doping method at that time and that the results from that week are not consistent with the results you would expect from someone using that doping method. Maybe that's true. And maybe I can still believe in that utterly spectacular day in Morzine in the Alps. But why should I? Not that he has any idea who I am or that what I have to say matters, but he doesn't deserve my belief in him.

How can we trust him when he says what he did or didn't do? For years, he's lied to protect his his career, so why wouldn't he be lying to protect the single greatest day of it? How can we trust his allegations against Armstrong, Leipheimer, Hincapie, Dave Zabriskie, Johan Brunyeel and the rest of the U.S. Postal/Discovery/Astana/Radio Shack family? Are these the words of a man finally coming clean or the words of a man trying to tear down his former teammates who had turned their backs on him in his failed comeback because he was a cheater?

All I know is that I lost, once and for all, one of my greatest heroes today. And I was one of the last people who still believed in him. And that's sad. He lied all that time and he made me a liar. And that's infuriating.

I can't imagine I could ever get to the point where I would actually, finally, give up on sports. My love affair runs far too deep. But I hate the idea that I am a revelation or two away from having to give on sportsmen. So Albert Pujols and Lance Armstrong, the clock is ticking. I figure I have about a half-a-century left to keep what may be the illusion that it is possible to be great and be clean. If you two are making me a liar too, just make sure they wait till I'm gone to publish the story.

The More Things Change...

2010-05-06T11:06:00.000-07:00

I always think it is a little funny when people do the same thing over and over expecting a different result and then seem completely shocked when they get the same one. Thanks to the Seattle Mariners and the Cincinnati Bengals for both being from cities that I kind of have to think twice about when spelling, and also for proving the axiom correct that the more things change, the more they stay the same.

The Seattle Mariners traded for Milton Bradley in the 2010 offseason thinking he had put his anger-management, authority-rebelling, and home fan-attacking ways behind him. And why wouldn't they? It's not like he had a history or anything. But as I wrote last month, it took Bradley just 5 games to have a blowup, and it took just 22 more for him to be shut-down indefinitely with "emotion stress," which is a euphemism for being a "chronic lunatic."

Can a man change? Sure! Should the Mariners (and all the rest) be ripped for trying to salvage the poor bastard's career (and life)? Yes and no. Perhaps it is a noble thing to try and help the guy straighten himself out and realize his potential. Perhaps it is pure ego that each of these organizations thinks they have all the answers and can make him a champion. Perhaps he'd be better off cashing his checks and getting out of the pressure cooker of professional sports that he clearly does not have the temperament to deal with.

So who is this guy? What exactly is his history? Is he worth all this trouble? Career averages of .276, 20 homers and 76 RBI per 162 games would say no. Especially since he's only played more than 101 games three times in 11 seasons, so you know you aren't getting a full season out of him. The other 8 seasons, he averaged 71 games played (which breaks down to 9 homers, 33 RBI). As for his history, it all started in Montreal.

He was drafted by the Expos in 1996 and made the roster as a light-hitting centerfielder in 2000. He apparently had no blowups with the Expos, but was traded mid-season in 2001 to the Indians, and maybe it's their fault he cracked.

He finished 2001 as a backup and played in 98 games in 2002 with Cleveland. His career batting average was .234 and he'd hit just 12 homers over 3 seasons. So we're not talking about world-class talent that is worth the headaches (Gary Sheffield, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, etc.). He blossomed (sorta) in 2003, batting .321, but still only hitting 10 homers and 43 RBI as the Indians' primary centerfielder (101 games played). That small success seems to be the butterfly wings that caused the hurricane to come.

During Spring Training the next year, Bradley got into a fight with manager Eric Wedge and was promptly traded to the Dodgers just days before the 2004 season. Hello spotlight! Goodbye sanity. As a fulltime starter in LA, Bradley's numbers stayed near his career averages, but playing in more games, he did hit 19 homers and drive in 67 runs. His batting average dipped back to .267 though and he was plagued with character issues.

One night in June of 2004, he stepped into the batter's box, exchanged words with the home plate umpire and was promptly ejected before even seeing a pitch. He then calmly set his batting gloves and bat in the box, stormed to the dugout and threw a bag of balls onto the field, scattering some 70 balls around the infield and a few in the left field corner (he picked a few up and hucked them down there).

With just 5 games left in 2004, in the midst of a pennant race, Bradley dropped a liner with the bases loaded and allowed 2 runs to score. And the bomb was planted. A few pitches later, some jackass Dodger fan (I know, I need to be more specific) threw a plastic bottle onto the field in Bradley's general vicinity. And the fuse was lit. Bradley picked up the bottle, raged towards the stands and BOOM! He threw the bottle into the stands, challenging fans to fight him (apparently). He was restrained by teammates before going into the stands and was, of course, ejected. As he headed back to the dugout, he tore off his jersey and hat, eliciting boos from his own home crowd...which he further incited with a palms up, "bring it on" gesture before he was yanked into the dugout and off the roster for the rest of the year.

Believe it or not, the Dodgers didn't dump him after this and Bradley survived one more year in Dodger blue, but played only 75 games and driving in only 38 runs in 2005 (maybe because the Paul LoDuca steroid pipeline dried up when LoDuca was traded away late in 2004). He was traded to the A's after the 2005 season (bringing Andre Ethier to the Dodgers...nice call, Moneyball).

Bradley spent most of two seasons as a part-timer in Oakland, not driving in many runs, or scoring many runs, or hitting or stealing much. But he did benefit from one of those poorly conceived, massive contracts that the Dodgers were always handing out, so that was cool. After his suspension in 2004, Bradley reportedly went to anger management and seemed to genuinely want to turn his life around. He spent most of the next three years in relative anonymity, staying out of the spotlight and keeping his rage nestled all safe and warm inside.

In June of 2007, the A's gave up on Bradley because his price tag was still too high for his output (thanks Dodgers). They traded him to San Diego, where after a brief stint on the disabled list, he became a full-time starter in left field and went on to become one of the Padres' best hitters, carrying them to a division lead with just under a week to go. [queue the Jaws theme]

Stop me if you've heard this one, but with only a few games left in the season in a pennant race, Bradley apparently tossed his bat in frustration after a strikeout. It went in the general direction of first base umpire Ron Winters, who apparently took offense and he told the home plate umpire that it had happened. In his next at bat, the home plate ump told Bradley that Winters had taken exception to the bat-toss. Bradley hit a single, of course, and while standing on first base he confronted Winters, who replied with some foul language and had three years of crazy blow up all over him.

Bradley was restrained by his manager, and somehow twisted his knee in the fracas, tearing his ACL and ending his season, the Padres' pennant hopes, and Bradley's tenure in America's Finest City. But at least this rousing pennant win by the Rockies ended up being a great story and a really fun postseason for the rest of us.

"But we fixed Josh Hamilton's life. Why not Milton Bradley's too?" thought the front office of the Texas Rangers. Bradley was brought to Texas in 2008 (after knee surgery) to resurrect his career and get his life back together. And it worked. And then it didn't work anymore.

Bradley had by far his best season with the bat in 2008. Relieved of his outfielding duties, perhaps to help him focus and not be distracted, he batted .321 as the Rangers' designated hitter. He had a .443 on base percentage and led the American League in OPS. He was chosen as an All-Star and ended up starting due to injury to David Ortiz ('roids are brutal on the body).

Besides his obnoxious, gratuitous spotlight grabbing during Hamilton's spectacular Home Run Derby performance, it seemed Bradley had finally put it all behind him, grown up, and had gotten his life together. Then one fateful day, he was watching his team's game broadcast in the clubhouse during the game and heard the Royals' play-by-play announcer talking about Bradley's parade of off-the-field issues (ironically, it would turn out, because he soon became the Grand Marshall of Bradley's 2008 parade of off-the-field issues).

Bradley stormed out of the clubhouse through the stadium trying to find the announcer and confront him. He had to be chased down by the GM and manager (during a game!) and later said that he was upset that someone he didn't know was talking negatively about him (let that be a lesson to you sports announcers, sports anchors and fans). Apparently it didn't matter that the negative things the announcer was saying were true. Thus, the Rangers bid him farewell at the end of the season.

The thing is, at this point in the story, Bradley is a somewhat sympathetic character. For the most part, he had been on the right path for a few years. He was officially exonerated of any wrong-doing in the scuffle in San Diego (no suspension because he was apparently incited to act out by the ump, who was suspended). He was just defending his honor in Kansas City (though perhaps there are better ways to do so) and he was playing the best baseball of his career.

So the Cubs took a chance on him. And why not? Sure, his hitting only became decent when he was moved to DH and the Cubs don't play in a league with a DH. Sure he has a history of confrontations with umpires, managers and other authority figures, and the Cubs have a surly, firey manager. No bad can come of that pairing. Sure he has a history of bad blood with his own fans (let alone the other teams'), are Cubs fans are particularly devoted, obsessive and vengeful (see: Bartman, Steve).

Almost as if he had given up trying to be a good guy after being run out of Texas, and perhaps because this was the worst fit in the history of personnel moves, Bradley made sparks fly throughout his tenure in Chicago. Finally, after a number of flare-ups with manager Lou Pinella, who had sent him home during a game and benched him numerous times, Bradley was suspended for the season (again, late in the season, during a pennant race). This time he had spoken out at a post-game interview at Wrigley field about how the Cubs organization was run poorly, that it was no surprise they hadn't won a World Series in 100+ years, and that the Cubs fans were garbage.

Apparently the Cubs and their fans didn't like this tirade, so they dumped him off on the Mariners last winter and here we are again. The Mariners must have thought that they had the right balance of team leadership and management structure to keep him in line. They don't. In his fifth game in Seattle, he either flipped off heckling Rangers fans or was just showing them how many hits he had on the season at that point.

Then yesterday, 17 games later, mired in a season-long slump, Bradley struck out looking and was screaming at the umpire from the bench. Manager Don Wakamatsu told him to be quiet and made the decision to sit him down for the rest of the night. It was reported that Bradley then told Wakamatsu, "I'm outta here" and left, through Bradley denies this. Another story says that he stormed down the tunnel to the clubhouse and Wakamatsu followed him (during the game...familiar?) and told him not to quit on his teammates.

So Bradley returned to the bench to see that he had been replaced in left field so he again stormed out. Apparently he thought they were going to play with no left fielder until he got back. This morning he told management that the emotional stress was too much for him and asked out of the line-up.

I commend him for asking for help, but seriously dude. You are getting paid $30 million to play a game that you don't even have to play well; they have to pay you even if they don't play you. Which they are now doing.

Will he return to the M's? I hope not. Seattle fans deserve better after the 5 years they've had. Will he wind up somewhere else? Probably. Doesn't everyone need an emotionally fragile, light-hitting power hitter with anger issues? He's only 31 or I'd say Omar Minaya would be all over that trade. Give him 5 more years, and then he's Mets material.

The NCAA Tournament: An Egalitarian Wonderland!

2010-04-22T15:22:00.000-07:00

Of all of the NCAA's championship events, I think it is pretty safe to say the the men's basketball tournament is the best. It is no more or less fair than all the other sports' tournaments; it is right on par with them. But what takes it over the top is, of course, the television coverage and massive fan appeal (and you can have a chicken vs. egg argument between those two). And today they made the tournament even better. They expanded to 68 teams and this is a look at the arguments for and against the expansion and why the NCAA proved its superior administrative wisdom, once again.

"Why not 96 teams? Erase the bubble, reward 31 more teams, make 31 more games-worth the money."
It's unecessary. Who would those extra 31 teams be? All the conferences already have automatic bids, so they'd all be at large schools. Assuming that 15 or 16 of the auto-bid schools are not among the 96 best in the country, that still means that around the top 80 teams in the country would get invites. Do we really need to see if the 76th best team deserves a national championship? I am all for Cindarellas, but don't the schools that prove their worth all year deserve better than to have 60-70 sub-par teams taking shots at them? And wouldn't there still be a bubble, but it would just include much crappier teams? We'd be very likely to see entire conferences get bids, with multiple sub-.500 teams.

"Then why expand at all?"
Expansion is necessary because every year there are 2-3 schools that likely deserved an invitation but were left out. This will eliminate that 66th-team-bubble and allow all the qualified teams a chance to play. Not to mention that it rewards three more teams and provides 3 more games-worth of revenue.

"Isn't that that answer the exact same as the question that you answered 'unnecessary' to for a 96 team expansion?"
No, that was 96. This is 68. They're different numbers. Plus, the 80th best team in the country doesn't have a prayer and doesn't belong.

"I agree that the 80th best team doesn't belong. But does the 50th really belong? Likely a 13 or 14 seed, do they deserve a chance and are they genuine contenders? A 12-seed, Missouri 2002, is the worst seed to even even make the Elite 8, so do we really need more 13+ calibre teams?"
Yes. There is no downside to allowing more teams to compete, be they are top 10 schools or top 50 (but let's not get carried away and allow the top 80). Plus, the Tournament has a long history of periodic expansion and of having additional play-in games. Since 1950, this will be the 10th expansion, and the fourth tournament make-up that included play-in games.

As you said earlier, 'I am all for Cindarellas, but don't the schools that prove their worth all year deserve better than to have 60-70 sub-par teams taking shots at them?' Doesn't the same already ring true currently with 40-50 sub-par teams? So why allow three more in? Clearly it isn't for fairness but money...so again, why didn't you just expand to 200 teams?
Generally all the university presidents, conference commissioners, and NCAA and television executives want to expand exponentially. Fans don't. And we feel it is important to listen to the fans. Whether in includes 65, 68, or 96 teams, the tournament is fair, so why not keep the fans happy. After all, they pay their hard earned money to keep us afloat.

So basically, even though no one watches the current play-in game, you can make more money by having 3 more. And those three games don't affect the integrity of the title, so you feel that it is reasonable to cash in, give more kids a shot at the title, and appease your fanbase. I think I am alright with that.
Good. I'm glad we understand each other.

In other words, it can't hurt anything so the 66th, 67th and 68th best basketball teams in the country deserve a chance to play for the title, but the 3rd best football team can kiss your ass.
No comment.

A Massive Collapse At The Cowboys' Stadium? But It's Not Even January!

2010-04-15T18:31:00.000-07:00

What's that explosion you hear echoing from the Dallas area? It's not the last glimmer of Jerry Jones' hope for widespread public respect fading into that good night after the video hit the web showing his apparently recent comments blasting Tim Tebow, revealing how similar his love for Tony Romo is to Herbert's love for Brian Griffin on The Family Guy, and explaining that Bill Parcells is a joke and that Jones only hired him to silence critics and dupe his fans into voting to approve the new stadium.

No, that noise is Jerry's 'Boys' old home finally being demolished nearly a year after they opened the doors of their new gaudy monstrosity, stripper cages and all. You remember the new stadium right? Its the one with that huge TV screen? The one that was opened with a loss to the Giants? Yeah, that's the one.

Videos of Texas Stadium's implosion are all over the web (google "Texas Stadium implosion" and take your pick), and frankly, I can't get enough of them. They combine two spectacles that I always enjoy watching: building implosions and well, watching Texas Stadium collapse.

Today I found a video on the Cowboys' official site that is truly pretty amazing though. They set cameras up in such a way that they had a 360 degree view of the implosion and then linked the videos so you can actually manually move the perspective around as it is playing - just like the 360 still photos that you've probably already used online (like on Google maps, for instance). I don't think I've ever seen this done with video, and it's pretty amazing.

Watch the video a few times, but be sure take a look with the camera facing down the field directly into the oncoming debris.

I wanted to make some joke linking the building collapse to that fat bastard, and noted cheater Flozell Adams, but it just seems hollow after the Cowboys released him last month. So I'll just say this: Flozell Adams is a fat bastard and a cheater.

Headline Potpourri

2010-04-15T12:06:00.000-07:00

It's been a while since I have written here consistently and I make no promise that I will start to again now, but I do like spouting off about things and pretending that people are reading it and I am influencing the masses (even though I can look at the Google analytics and see that usually only 4 people read anything on here...which just tells me that my mom must log in from different computers).

So here's my scattershot look at the sports world these days.

Omar Minaya needs to be fired. I am pretty sure that his main qualification when he was hired was being a life-long Mets fan. Well, I want the job then. I can identify the highest profile star free agent and sign a huge check to bring him in. I can misidentify the abundant mid-level talent that actually wins ball games. I can sign over-the-hill stars in a transparent attempt to sell tickets. I can trade away young talent without having any real sense of if they'll be any good or not. I can sign and resign bad pitchers to hugely overvalued contracts, while passing on others that would have been cheaper and more effective.

According to a blog on the MLB.com network, Joel Pineiro was all set to sign with the Mets this offseason. He is close friends with Alex Cora, who told him that Minaya had said they were gonna get it done. Pieneiro was excited. Then Minaya settled on the same crap that had lost nearly 100 games last year and Pineiro eventually signed with the Angels for just $1 million more than the Mets initial low-ball offer. If you're wondering, last year Pineiro had his best year as a full-time starter with a 3.49 ERA and 15 wins. His ERA is 2.77 this year, including dominating the Yankees in New York yesterday. Good call Omar.

Jerry Manuel also needs to be fired. He over-manages the bullpen to the point where most games are unwatchable because of the constant pitching changes. And this makes all of the pitchers tired because they all warm-up every day and most pitch every day, so mid-way through the season, all of them are fatigued. He over-manages the lineup to the point where no one knows exactly what his role is. If Jose Reyes is your 3-man, put him there and shut up about it. If not, don't...and shut up about it. If Angel Pagan is your centerfielder until Carlos Beltran comes back, then put him out there and let him settle in. If you are trying to find extra time for Gary Matthews, Jr. so you can trade him when Beltran returns, then do it and leave him in there so he can settle in. Set a lineup and stick with it. One bad offensive day doesn't mean you blow the whole thing up and start over. But two years of the same crap not working over and over, does mean to start over.

And Gary Matthews, Jr., you are 36 years old. Drop the "Jr."

Oliver Perez needs to be released. Damn the contract. There must be any number of pitchers available (Pedro Martinez, Jerrod Washburn, any minor leaguer) who can come in and throw a great 4 innings here and there, and then give up 5 runs and 6 walks in an inning here and there. Screw this guy. He stunk when we signed him. He stunk under the last pitching coach. He stinks under this pitching coach. Stop stroking his ego and trying to ease his psyche so he can find the freaking strike zone. Let him use the money you're paying to go to Fiji and hire a sports psychologist and figure it out on his own. There's no reason he needs to parade out there every five days like an albatross around the necks of your fans and the rest of the team just so we can figure out if he's still an overvalued lunatic. (Note: This program does not allow for photo captions, but the one above would have been, "Ctrl-Z".)

John Maine...you're next. Quit screwing around.

Sharks fans: your mascot has one syllable. Luckily the convention of sports fans has standard crowd-roaring cheers for just such a situation. And they have other cheers for two syllable mascots. Stop using the wrong one. "Let's go Sharks! - Let's go Sharks!" Memorize and repeat. You've watched too many Yankees and Red Sox games on ESPN (though that is all they show, so I can't blame you) and are trying to make "Sharks" a two-syllable word. Stop it. "Let's go Sha-arks." I can't believe I have to listen to that for at least 1 more home game, possibly as many as 15 more times this postseason.

Sharks players: What the hell? How many former Stanley Cup winners and Olympic Gold medal winners do you need to join you before you stop being choke artists?

Ben Roethlisberger is an idiot. Can we move on though? He didn't get drunk and crash his $200,000 car into a pedestrian. He didn't run a dog-fighting ring. He didn't shoot himself in the leg in a nightclub. He just keeps sleeping with the wrong women, once he crashed a motorcycle, and he has a really bad barber. If he's ever convicted of rape, then I will change my story here. But for now, he is a really rich, kinda fat, kinda ugly 28-year-old dude who likes going to bars and hooking up with women.

Elin Woods is allegedly pissed at Tiger for playing in the Masters just 5 months after their marriage blew up. Not that Tiger has to work, given his financial success, but golf is his job. I think 5 months off is a reasonable amount of time off from work before restarting some normalcy to life without being callous. In the real world, people go back to work the next day after catastrophe hits. That said, she should be pissed (and allegedly is) about the Nike commercial where they spliced together things his dad said into some kind of eerie, post-mortem, lecture to Tiger about being a scumbag. It is disgusting, shameful and sad. From Nike's point of view, what was the purpose of this: "We will get unrelated statement made by his dead father, who he was really close to, and chop it up so it sounds like he is scolding Tiger. And this will make people want to buy shoes." Are they really exploiting his infidelity as an avenue for sales? It's one thing to keep him as a spokesman since he is still a great athlete, even if he's a scummy person. But it is another to advertise his scumminess. And he signed off on it. Oh, and he had sex with all those skanks. Screw the pre-nup saying you have to be married for a certain amount of time, show him that at least you can't be bought.

Can we stop looking at Tiger's father as some kind of model for all parents? He raised a son who is arrogant, petulant, rude, condescending, and adulterous. During the US Open this year, which is always on Fathers' Day weekend, I hope I don't have to hear about what a wonderful man it was that raised and was so close to this huge asshole. He may have been a good guy, and maybe all these problems with Tiger are not his fault. But as a former teacher, I often saw that if a kid was a good kid, you saw why when you met his parents. And visa versa.

It took Milton Bradley 5 games to have a blow-up on his new team. And this is after being fired from his last team for having blow-ups all the time. Which is after a litany of blow-ups throughout his career despite his consistent insistence that it's never his fault. Newsflash Milton: opposing sports fan heckle. Especially those in cities where you formerly played. Especially when you had a huge contract and stunk and got run out of town because of behavior problems. So at this point, I am starting to think it isn't Bradley's fault. It's the teams that keep hiring him.

Phil Jackson just criticized NBA referees for the preferential treatment that Kevin Durant gets. I'm sure this blatantly transparent and pathetic whining has nothing to do with the fact that Jackson's Lakers are playing Durant's Supersonics in the playoffs this week. I am sure Jackson would have spoken out about this had the Lakers not been playing the Sonics. And I am sure that Jackson is aware of the fact that his 10 championships are partially a result of the fact that Michael Jordan, Shaquille O'Neal, and Kobe Bryant have always gotten better preferential treatment from refs than Tiger Woods would get at the Bunny Ranch. NBA officiating is a joke, Phil. If you score 20+ points per game, or get 15+ rebounds, you get any call you want. It doesn't matter who you are, just that you're somebody.

I know they're not the Supersonics anymore, I just still can't believe it. And Jim Britt deserved better, so that's for him. (By the way Jim, sorry about Milton Bradley being insane. Who saw that coming?)

I went to the Giants-Pirates game yesterday and saw what I think was my first inside-the-park homerun. I have a vague sense that I saw someone hit one at a Padre game at the Murph when I was in college, but I can't quite place it. Eric Young? I think it was a Rockie. In any case, this one yesterday was awesome and Aubrey Huff probably hopes he never gets a funny bounce like that again. He looked like the only way he was gonna make it home was on a gurney.

In related news, I rode my bike to the game. This is significant for a number of reasons. One: it's awesome. Two: I was not worried about my bike being stolen or myself being stabbed at any point before during or after the game. Maybe moving away from LA wasn't so bad. I've been to two games at AT&T Park now this season. 0 waves. 0 beach balls. 0 fights. 0 drinks/food thrown at opposing fans. 1 Braves fan in a Chipper Jones jersey in the front row who spent most of the game facing the crowd with a smug look on his face and his arms out in a "That's right, we're winning, what are you gonna do about it?" posture who deserved drinks and food thrown at him, then a fight, but got none. 0 violent incidents outside the stadium.

I have eye glasses but I don't wear them very much, though I should. Last night I was sitting pretty far from the TV watching the Sharks-Avs game and had a hard time spotting the puck. There is obviously an easy way to remedy this situation for the Kings-Canucks game tonight. I need a bigger TV.

Fantasy baseball is frustrating for a lot of reasons but here are two examples from this past week: The Braves got shelled but I couldn't fully enjoy it because I had their pitcher, Jair Jurrjens, on my team. Then the next day, the Mets got shelled even worse by the Rockies. But at least I have one of the Rockies' big hitters on my team so I benefitted there, right? Nope. He had the night off.

Tracy McGrady made the announcement today that he intends to retire if he cannot regain his form. Thanks for the update, Tracy. I think I speak for most fans, and probably most GMs when I say, Tracy McGrady is still in the league?

Nicole's Crystal Ball: NCAA Tourney '10

2010-03-18T20:03:00.000-07:00

Another year, another NCAA Bracket filled out by my lovely wife. She and I both entered a bracket contest on ESPN.com, and this morning I entered her picks in for her. I would tell her the teams playing and their seeds, and she would follow any one of a number of meandering paths towards which team she would pick. After one or two games, I quickly realized that this needed to be recorded for posterity, so I took notes on her line of thinking as she picked.

In previous years, she followed a pretty orderly path towards her picks, as I recorded last year in a blog post. That system worked pretty well and she actually beat me in 2009. It seems to have broken down though and is now a pretty dizzying process to be a part of, to be honest. If you read that post from last March, you will remember a few key points that will help this make more sense: she has an affinity for Cougars as a mascot, private schools, Catholic schools, interesting words in school names, and schools from cities or states she knows people, or knows alumni from.

The greatest hits from Nicole's 2010 Bracket picks (I gave the schools, seeds, mascots, and answered follow up questions; she provided the magic):

First Round
Northern Iowa over UNLV: "I am going to Iowa for work soon and panthers are like cougars. Plus, Vegas is gross."
Maryland over Houston: "Turtles always win."
Tennessee over SDSU: "SDS Who? State sucks." (Note: we both went to USD, so we don't like SDSU.)
Oklahoma St. over Georgia Tech: "I have mosquito bites from our ultimate game on Tuesday, so I hate bees."
Ohio St. over UCSB: "UCSB is a party school. They're not gonna win in basketball."
Gonzaga over Florida St.: "Gonzaga sucks but they're good. Right?"
Butler over UTEP: "Butler is private. Texas sucks."
Minnesota over Xavier: "Xavier is Catholic, but I have too many bulldogs, so pick the other one."
Pittsburgh over Oakland: "Panther is close to cougar."
Florida over BYU: "A cougar vs. a gator would be awesome, and I think the cougar would kill the gator, but I need East Coast, so Florida." (Note: she's picked two teams that were panthers because that's "like a cougar" but has now picked against the first cougar she's come accross.)
Texas over Wake Forest: "I have vetoed all the other Texases, and Wendy went there. One round for Wendy."
Cornell over Temple: "Owls are smart so Temple wins." (I then reminded her that The Office's Andy Bernard went to Cornell and she changed her pick.)
Wisconsin over Wofford: "Anthony Van Asten went to Wisconsin."
Marquette over Washington: "Huskies are fat and Marquette is Catholic."
Notre Dame over Old Dominion: "Irish. It's St. Patrick's Day!" (Note: It is March 18.)
Baylor over Sam Houston St.: "Baylor makes me think of 'Bears, beets, Battlestar Gallactica.'" (Note: another The Office reference.)
St. Mary's over Richmond: "WCC, dude." (Note: USD is in the WCC.)

Second Round
Maryland over Michigan St.: "Turtles are so cute."
Tennessee over Georgetown: "Volunteering is good, but Georgetown is Catholic. Which is more important? I guess you can be called a Catholic but not be a good person. Volunteers have to volunteer."
Ohio St. over Oklahoma St.: "T.O. is a bitch, so no Cowboys. Plus, Ohio State has a blow-up costume." (Note: T.O. hasn't been a Cowboy in a season and a half and Nicole was a mascot and wore an inflatable costume at USD.)
Syracuse over Gonzaga: "Jeff's school over the Zags." (Note: Jeff, here, is her former coworker Jeff Suss.)
Vanderbilt over Butler: "Jeff went to Vanderbilt. And I have too many dogs." (Jeff, here, is my brother-in-law, Jeff Donlevy.)
Pittsburgh over Minnesota: "Panthers, dude. They kill gophers."
Kentucky over Texas: "Wildcats kill bulls. Wildcats equals cougars!"
Cornell over Wisconsin: "Ooh, Andy vs. Anthony. The Nard Dawg beats Van Asten."
West Virginia over Clemson: "Two." (Note: This was all she said after considering their colors, mascots, states, cities, and conferences. West Virginia is a 2 seed.)
Baylor over Notre Dame: "Bears, beets, Battlestar Gallactica."
Villanova over St. Mary's: "St. Mary's is Catholic, but 'V' is cool. Go with the V-one."

Sweet 16
Maryland over Kansas: "Turtles are cute, plus the Dulaneys went there."
Tennessee over Ohio St.: "Volunteers already got two, plus Ohio St. has the blow-up. But orange is the Mets color." (Note: Nicole, if you're reading this, I love you.")
Syracuse over Vanderbilt: "Jeff vs. Jeff. Work's been hard for Jeff since I left so he wins. Syracuse."
Kansas St. over Pittsburgh: "I knocked out Kansas, so maybe keep Kansas St. Plus Pittsburgh just won the Stanley Cup anyway."
Marquette over West Virginia: "Schools with two names can't be taken seriously."
Villanova over Baylor: "Villanova is Catholic. Plus...'V'."

Elite 8
Maryland over Tennessee: "Dulaneys and Herbie." (Note: Herbie is the name Nicole gives to basically every wild animal she sees, but in this case she is referring to the green sea turtles we saw in Hawaii, all of which she named Herbie."
Syracuse over Kansas St.: "I don't know. The Wizard of Oz was in Kansas. But Kansas St. has two words. Syracuse."
Marquette over Kentucky: "KFC sucks. The other one."
Duke over Villanova: "Ooh, they both have cool names...Duke." (Note: This is by far the most she considered picking against Duke thus far. Until now, once I said, "Number one Duke Blue Devils vs. ..." she said, "Duke.")

Final 4
Maryland over Syracuse: "Dulaneys and turtles, and plus Maryland is Catholic." (Note: Maryland isn't Catholic; it's a public school. But I suppose the state was the most Catholic of the colonies.)
Duke over Marquette: "Duke."

Championship Game
Duke over Maryland: "Duke hasn't been in a while and he's the Olympic coach, but turtles are really cute. What are the colors ... hmm ... all American. Seeds? ... Who won it more recently? ... Would people pick Maryland? ... OK, I don't want to make a dumb pick, so Duke."

Tie-Breaker: Championship Score
Duke 71, Maryland 69: "I was born in 79. Is that too high? ... What month were you born? October, so 10. Too low. I was July so 7. Too low. But I was born on the 17th. So flip it ...71. And 69 for the Mets."

I've never been prouder.

Name of the Year

2010-03-12T15:46:00.000-08:00

When I first made this list last March and more recently this one last month of some of the funnier and more unusual names I had seen in sports, I suppose I should have assumed that someone else had already taken this pursuit to another level. The level to which they had, I could not have guessed.

And apparently, not only was I embarrassingly outdone, but I have been getting outdone for 17 years (though, in my defense, they haven't been publishing it for the whole time).

Last year's Name of the Year winner was a football player from LSU (Barkevious Mingo), but they're not all sports figures. And where I generally focused on the miserable albatrosses that parents bestowed on their children, many of the most spectacular of these names are last names, or even better: amazing combinations of first and last names. These guys have done their homework and found some epic names, all of which are apparently verified before publishing (except, of course, for Licentious Beastie [Name of the Year 1999; invalidated 2006] and Mummenschontz Bitterbeetle [Name of the Year 1994; invalidated 2006]).

Sponteneous Gordon, Nubian Peak and God's Power Offor appear to be early front-runners in this year's tournament (just in time for March, of course), but do not miss the Hall of Fame section. Assumption Bulltron? Vanilla Dong? Tanqueray Beavers? Tokyo Sexwale? All your favorites are there.

Without further ado, ladies and gentlemen, I give you Name of the Year.

And don't forget to check in during the coming weeks to vote in this year's tourney.

(Speaking of tourneys, if you would like to join a free Yahoo! NCAA Tourney group, go to Yahoo! Sports and enter the Group ID #5446 and password "march". There are instructions there if you really want to bet $10 on your picks, but that is optional. You need a Yahoo! screen name to play but it is free to register.)

These Next 12 Months Are My Favorite Time of Year

2010-03-10T11:04:00.000-08:00

As a pretty avid watcher of all sports, this time of year is pretty fantastic for me. Starting with the run up to the NCAA tournament, then you have baseball Spring training, the Tourney, baseball's opening day, the start* of the NBA season and then postseason, NHL playoffs, the Grand Slams and golf's Majors, Tour de France, this year we had the Winter Olympics and we'll have the World Cup, then the baseball postseason pushes, NFL starts, October, "BCS is unfair" month, the bowls, and then the NFL playoffs and Super Bowl and then the NCAA bubble talk starts up again, and you sprinkle in various drafts, trades, free agency, scandals, other tournaments and events throughout this time.

OK, so as it turns out, it's pretty much the whole year. But still, February/March always seems to be the start of it all somehow. Maybe I am just a baseball/college basketball fan first and everything else follows?

*in my world, the first 50ish games of the NBA are preseason and don't matter. Then somewhere between the Super Bowl and the Final Four, the NBA gets going. Ironically, most NBA players and management seem to feel the same way.

Sadly for me, this most magical time of year is overlapping a time when I simply cannot follow any of it very closely. I've just moved to San Francisco (fun fact: everyone here hates the Lakers and Dodgers, just like me!) and didn't have TV for a couple of weeks (staying with non-sports people - did you know people really watch Jersey Shore?). We finally got TV in our room, but now that I am moving out of my friends' basement into my new place, I will be without TV or the internet again for a few days...during this weekend of all weekends (though I would probably be this mortified pretty much every weekend).

All that said, it has made it hard for me to write anything about sports, even though there have been so many things I wanted so badly to write about. So here's a capsule of what I have watched over the past month or so:

-Canada's hockey fans inspire me to be a better sports fan in general - they collectively know the game at such a detailed level, they applaud the other team, they chanted "USA" at our women as they collected their silver medals. Very impressive. That said, I wish we'd broken every single one of their hearts.

-When someone says, "Oh, don't tell me what's happening in the Gold Medal Hockey game. I am taping it and left it when we were down 2-1 with 9:00 to go." Your response cannot be, "Oh, well it's in overtime now, so you will love it." Dammit!

-Derek Anderson said after he was released that Browns fans are "ruthless." "I will never forget getting cheered when I was injured. ... I know at times I wasn’t great. I hope and pray I’m playing when my team comes to town and (we) roll them." People are very upset about this and he issued an apology. What should he have said? "I will miss the loyal and wonderful Browns fans, especially the ones who cheered when I got injured. I look forward to coming back here with a new team and I hope the Browns crush us." Kudos to him for saying what he really meant and really not being all that offensive anyway. Derek, you can keep the balls dry for Eli Manning anyday...just stay off the field.

-Mike Dunleavy got canned as Clippers GM and found out about the move because a reported from ESPN asked him what he thought of it. The Clips then went out and lost by 30 that night. That pretty much sums up everything you need to know about them.

-The Jets, who have the best corner in football, just got one of the best corners in football to play on the other side. That pretty much sums up the opposite of everything you thought you knew about them.

-The NFL Combine happened. People ran and jumped. Al Davis decided to draft the fastest person there with the Raiders' first pick.

-Speaking of the fastest person there, my mom (Hall of Famer, Kathy Bergen) set two World Records and an American Record at a Masters track meet a few weeks ago. Incidentally, I really feel that she should now sign her name, "Kathy Bergen, Legend" as though it is a masters degree or a doctorate or something.

-Some race car driver got angry and ran down and crashed into another race car driver repeatedly until he wrecked because he was mad at him. NASCAR gave the guy a three week probation, so apparently the penalty for attempted murder in the South is no longer jail. NASCAR has seen it's popularity wane in the last few years, so they decided to allow drivers to police themselves more and let these types of things be handled on the track. In other words, they feel that having people run into one another at 150 miles an hour will draw in more fans. This seems a little far-fetched to me because I didn't think demolition derbies were that popular. Maybe they just haven't been going fast enough. This will probably be less fun when people start dying.

-The Winter Olympics presented a whole slew of events that made me look again at the Definition of Sport. The Sport vs. Non-Sport lists grew as well. Stay tuned.

-A women's college basketball player socked another one. Also Connecticut's women have just set the record for longest winning streak. Some folks say these things should make me want to take interest in women's college basketball. Somehow women fighting means they've reached a certain level of legitimacy and passion. And UConn's excellence supposedly shows that women can play on a really high level. Frankly, all this makes me think is that some girl is a thug and the sport is more of a joke than ever since one team can win their games by an average of 30 points all season. I've said it before, but I don't watch women's basketball because they are not as fast or athletic as men's basketball players. That's not sexist, it's science (thanks Ron Burgundy). I don't watch minor league baseball either, because it is not as good a game as major league baseball. I also don't watch the Raiders for the same reason, and even if Tom Cable punched an assistant coach, I still wouldn't. Oh, that happened? Ok, I'll YouTube it.

-Milton Bradley, who signed with the Mariners this offseason, said it wasn't his fault that he kept getting into trouble when he was on the _______ (insert team here).

There are many, many more, but I need to find a job and there's only so much time I can spend on this crap.

Fantastic Sports Names, Vol. II (National Signing Day Edition)

2010-02-03T11:04:00.000-08:00

Last March, inspired by the NCAA Tournament, I compiled a list of some of my favorite bizarre first names. Looking through ESPN's list of high school seniors looking to sign their national letters of intent to play college football next year, I found a brand new crop of names to celebrate. Some we've seen before, some we've heard before (but mom and dad came up with new spelling), and some are all new, baby.

I give you the new and improved, categorized list of old-white-announcer-killing sports names.

New Twists on Classics (add some punctuation or capitalization, change the spelling, add a prefix, combine common names)
Da'Rick, Darious, DeAnthony, Demarco, DeMarcus, Demetrius, Desman, Erique, Kameron, Kelvin, Kolton, Kraig, LaDarius, Lamarcus, LaMichael, LaMont, Lamonte, Markeith, Sascha, Seantrel, Sharrif, Shon, Stephone, Tai-ler, Tarik, Tevin, Telvin, Tharold, Toney, Wesleigh, Xzavier

Made-Up Names (Not quite real words, but familiar enough that they work; often Roman-sounding, typically seen as last names, or used as something other than a name - like an abstract concept)
Arrington, Artaves, Ashton, Carrington, Chevelle, Cortez, Damiere, Darien, Darion, DaVaris, Delonte, Demar, Devonta, Dietrich, Dior, Dondi, Eliar, Hasean, Jacquese, Jadeveon, Ja'Wuan, Jafus, Javorius, Jaylen, Jephte, Justice, Kadron, Kameel, Keenard, Kiehl, Lache, La'El, Martavius, Nickell, Quan, Quandre, Rakeem, Savon, Serderius, Shamir, Shaq, Sheroid, Sterling, Traion, Trovon, Watts

Foreign Names (or at least foreign sounding enough that I didn't think it was a Made-Up Name)
Aremide, Ifo, Faatele, Keiwone, Khairi, Ma-autua, Mustafa, Nyjee, Owamagbe Odighizuwa (good luck, Verne Lundquist), Sioasi

I did not make up any of these names and spelled them as they are spelled on ESPN.com. I ommitted a few unusual names that I assumed were nicknames or abreviations like Nino).

I realize that a great majority of these names belong to African American kids and so this post risks being labeled as racist. However, I refute that by stating that I couldn't care less what people name their children. I haven't singled out any particular race of people; I was just looking at a list of athletes. The ratio of black kids to white kids in this list is probably about the ratio of black kids to white kids in that list.

Plus, you can't just go calling your kid "La-El," Watts," or "Xzavier" and not think someone is going to think it's odd. Thank you to whatever the hell was going on in people's heads 17 years ago. One can only imagine how pervasive IM-speak will be/has been in the naming of the next/current generation of toddlers. The over-under on when a number will apear in the actual spelling of a name sits at 5 years.

Week 17 Playoff Scenarios

2009-12-31T11:07:00.000-08:00

11 teams are still alive in the AFC, with only four being assured of a spot in the playoffs. The other seven are basically already in a playoff-of sorts, where if they lose, they're out and if they win, they may still be. The NFC is more organized. Barely. We know which six teams will be playing, but only one of them has their seed wrapped up. It should be quite a day on Sunday!

The first tie-breaker in any sceanrio is always head-to-head matchups. Next up is record against conference opponents. Things are usually settled by that time, but with seven teams within one game of one another and two spots on the line, the AFC tie-breakers could end up going pretty deep. I've left the possibility of a tie game out of the scenarios because let's face it, there isn't going to be a tie game. Here's how things shake out through Week 16:

AFC
1 Indianapolis Colts 14-1 (AFC South Champs, clinched 1 seed)
2 San Diego Chargers 12-3 (AFC West Champs, clinched 2 seed)
3 Cincinnati Bengals 10-5 (AFC North Champs, clinched hosting first round game)
4 New England Patriots 10-5 (AFC East Champs, clinched hosting first round game)
5 New York Jets 8-7
6 Baltimore Ravens 8-7
7 Denver Broncos 8-7
8 Houston Texans 8-7
9 Pittsburgh Steelers 8-7
10 Miami Dolphins 7-8
11 Jacksonville Jaguars 7-8

Possible Scenarios:
Cincinnati - 3 seed: Bengals win
Cincinnati - 4 seed: Bengals lose + Patriots win
New England - 3 seed: Patriots win + Bengals lose
New England - 4 seed: Patriots and Bengals both win or both lose
New York - 5 seed: Jets win
Baltimore - 5 seed: Ravens win + Jets lose
Baltimore - 6 seed: Ravens and Jets both win
Denver - 5 seed: Broncos win + Jets lose + Ravens lose + Texans lose
Denver - 6 seed: Brocnos win + Jets or Ravens lose + Steelers and/or Texans lose, OR Steelers lose + any two losses by the Jets, Ravens and Texans
Houston - 5 seed: Texans win + Jets lose + Ravens lose + Broncos lose
Houston - 6 seed: Texans win + and two losses by the Jets, Ravens and Broncos
Pittsburgh - 5 seed: Steelers win + Jets lose + Ravens lose + Texans lose
Pittsburgh - 6 seed: Steelers win + Jets lose + Ravens lose + Broncos lose + Texans win, OR Steelers win + Texans lose + Jets lose, OR Steelers win + Texans lose + Ravens lose
Miami - 6 seed: Dolphins win +Jets lose + Ravens lose + Broncos lose + Texans lose + Jaguars lose
Jacksonville - 5 seed: Jaguars win + Jets lose + Ravens lose + Broncos lose + Texans lose + Steelers lose
Jacksonville - 6 seed: Jaguars win + Jets lose + Ravens lose + Broncos lose + Texans lose + Steelers win, OR Jaguars win + Dolphins win + 3 or more losses by the Jets, Ravens, Broncos and Texans

Matchups:
Indianapolis Colts play at Buffalo
San Diego Chargers host Washington
Cincinnati Bengals play at New York Jets
New England Patriots play at Houston
New York Jets host Cincinnati
Baltimore Ravens host Oakland
Denver Broncos play at Kansas City
Houston Texans play at New England
Pittsburgh Steelers host Miami
Miami Dolphins play at Pittsburgh
Jacksonville Jaguars play at Cleveland

NFC
1 New Orleans Saints 13-2 (NFC South Champs, clinched 1 seed)
2 Philadelphia Eagles 11-4*
3 Minnesota Vikings 11-4 (NFC North Champs)
4 Arizona Cardinals 10-5 (NFC West Champs)
5 Green Bay Packers 10-5
6 Dallas Cowboys 10-5*
*-Dallas hosts Philadelphia in Week 17 and the winner is the NFC East champ

Possible Scenarios
Philadelphia - 2 seed: Eagles win
Philadelphia - 5 seed: Eagles lose + Packers lose
Philadelphia - 6 seed: Eagles lose + Packers win
Minnesota - 2 seed: Vikings win + Eagles lose
Minnesota - 3 seed: Vikings win + Eagles win, OR Vikings lose + Eagles win + Cardinals lose
Minnesota - 4 seed: Vikings lose + Eagles win + Cardinals win
Arizona - 2 seed: Cardinals win + Eagles lose + Vikings lose
Arizona - 3 seed: Cardinals win + Eagles win + Vikings lose, OR Cardinals win + Eagles lose + Vikings win
Arizona - 4 seed: Cardinals lose, OR both Eagles and Vikings win
Green Bay - 5 seed: Packers win
Green Bay - 6 seed: Packers lose + Cowboys win
Dallas - 2 seed: Cowboys win + Vikings lose + Cardinals lose
Dallas - 3 seed: Cowboys win + Vikings win + Cardinals lose, OR Cowboys win + Vikings lose + Cardinals win
Dallas - 4 seed: Cowboys win + Vikings win + Cardinals win
Dallas - 6 seed: Cowboys lose

Matchups
New Orleans Saints play at Carolina
Philadelphia Eagles play at Dallas
Minnesota Vikings host New York Giants
Arizona Cardinals host Green Bay
Green Bay Packers play at Arizona
Dallas Cowboys host Philadelphia

Under most likely scenarios, both the Eagles-Cowboys and Cardinals-Packers games will be rematched in the first round of the playoffs, though the home sites are up for grabs.

NFL Week 14 Hangover

2009-12-16T14:26:00.000-08:00

The Vikings joined the Colts and Saints as division champs in Week 14, but the Cardinals were unable to do so in the NFC West after they sleep-walked through their game against the 49ers on Monday night. There were only two notable changes of position in Week 14: the Jaguars lost to Miami and fell out of an AFC Wild Card position (the Ravens took over their vacated spot thanks to holding all the tie-breakers in the 4-way tie at 7-6), and the Cowboys lost to San Diego, swapping playoff positions with Philadelphia. Both are still in the playoffs, but the Eagles are now leading the NFC East and the Cowboys are the 2nd Wild Card.

AFC - Settled
AFC South Champions - Indianapolis Colts (13-0)
Byes - Indianapolis Colts

AFC - Up For Grabs
Top seed - Indianapolis (13-0) leads the race for the AFC's top seed and playoff homefield advantage by three games with three to play. San Diego (10-3) is second and is the only team that could catch the Colts.

Byes - The Chargers (10-3) lead the Bengals (9-4) by one game for the second bye. They play one another in San Diego in Week 15, which will determine who holds the tie-breaker should they finish with the same record. The Patriots (8-5) are two games back for the final bye and are a long-shot, at best.
AFC North Champions - Cincinnati (9-4) still leads the division by 2 games even after losing in Week 14. They will clinch the division with one more win or a Ravens' (7-6) loss because they swept the Ravens this season and hold the tie-breaker. The Steelers (6-7) were eliminated from contention in Week 14.

AFC West Champions - San Diego (10-3) is two games ahead of Denver (8-5), who lost to Indianapolis in Week 14. The two split the season series and the Chargers have one more conference win than do the Broncos, so they would win should the Broncos pull off a miracle and end the season tied with San Diego.

AFC East Champions - New England (8-5) held onto its one game lead over both New York and Miami (7-6) for the division crown in Week 14. The tie-breakers are complicated at this point. Miami would currently win a 3-way tie because they have the best record in games among the three (split with New England and swept New York). New England has tie-breakers over both Miami and New York individually, and Miami has the tie-breaker over New York.

AFC Wild Cards - The Broncos (8-5) were a near lock last week for a spot, but their loss, along with wins by Baltimore, Miami, and the Jets, makes the AFC Wild Cards a mess. Denver is one game ahead of a 4-team log-jam at 7-6 and the Ravens currently hold the tie-breakers for the final spot. Pittsburgh (6-7) is still alive, but has to pass four teams and has a brutal remaining schedule. Baltimore has the easiest remaining schedule of those teams in contention. The Jets have, by far, the hardest remaining schedule in the NFL.

AFC - Projections and Opponents' Combined Records
1. Indianapolis Colts (16-0). Remaining: at Jacksonville (W), New York Jets (W), at Buffalo (W) - 19-20
2. San Diego Chargers (13-3). Remaining: Cincinnati (W), at Tennessee (W), Washington (W) - 19-20
3. Cincinnati Bengals (11-5). Remaining: at San Diego (L), Kansas City (W), at New York Jets (W) - 20-19
4. New England Patriots (10-6). Remaining: at Buffalo (W), Jacksonville (W), at Houston (L) - 18-21
5. Denver Broncos (10-6). Remaining: Oakland (W), at Philadelphia (L), Kansas City (W) - 16-23
6. Miami Dolphins (9-7). Remaining: at Tennessee (L), Houston (W), Pittsburgh (W) - 18-21
- - -
7. Baltimore Ravens (9-7). Remaining: Chicago (W), at Pittsburgh (L), at Oakland (W) - 15-24
8. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7). Remaining: Indianapolis (L), at New England (L), at Cleveland (W) - 23-16
9. New York Jets (8-8). Remaining: Atlanta (W), at Indianapolis (L), Cincinnati (L) - 28-11
10. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8). Remaining: Green Bay (W), Baltimore (W), at Miami (L) - 23-16

Baltimore and Miami finish tied at 9-7, with Miami advancing to the playoffs because of a better strength of victory number (they are tied after the first 3 tie-breakers - head-to-head, conference winning percentage, record in common games).  Miami will travel to Cincinnati to face the Bengals, with the winner traveling to San Diego. Denver heads to New England to play the Patriots, with the winner playing at Indianapolis.

NFC - Settled
NFC South Champions - New Orleans Saints (13-0)
NFC Playoffs - Minnesota Vikings (11-2)

NFC - Up For Grabs
Top seed - New Orleans leads the race for the NFC's top seed and playoff homefield advantage by two games over Minnesota with three games to play. No other team can take this spot.

Byes - New Orleans clinched a first round bye with their win in Week 14. Minnesota (11-2) has a two game lead for the second bye over Phildelphia (9-4) and Green Bay (9-4), but no other team could take the spot.

NFC North Champions - Minnesota (11-2) swept the season series against Green Bay (9-4) and can clinch the division crown with a win or a Packers loss.

NFC West Champions - Arizona (8-5) failed to clinch in their head-to-head matchup with San Francisco (6-7) on Monday night, and also lost to the 49ers in Week 1.  The Cardinals still hold a two game lead though and can clinch the division with a combination of two Cardinal wins and 49er losses in the final three weeks. Arizona has the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL.

NFC East Champions - Philadelphia (9-4) assumed control of the division with a win over the Giants (7-6), narrowly avoiding a three-way tie for the division lead after Dallas (8-4) lost in Week 14 as well. Dallas beat Philadelphia head-to-head already and they face off again in Week 17.

NFC Wild Cards - Green Bay (9-4) is now nearly a lock for a Wild Card, with a two-game lead over the Giants (7-6). Dallas (8-5) is currently in the final playoff spot, but they only have a one-game lead over New York, and were swept by the Giants in the season series. Atlanta (6-7) is still alive and has a very easy remaining schedule, but they would need a lot of help from the Giants and Cowboys to sneak in.

NFC - Projections and Opponents' Combined Records
1. New Orleans Saints (16-0). Remaining: Dallas, (W), Tampa Bay (W), at Carolina (W) - 14-25
2. Minnesota Vikings (14-2). Remaining: at Carolina (W), at Chicago (W), New York Giants (W) - 17-22
3. Philadelphia Eagles (11-5). Remaining: San Francisco (W), Denver (W), at Dallas (L) - 22-17
4. Arizona Cardinals (10-6). Remaining: at Detroit (W), St. Louis (W), Green Bay (L) - 12-27
5. Green Bay Packers (11-5). Remaining: at Pittsburgh (L), Seattle (W), at Arizona (W) - 19-20
6. New York Giants (9-7). Remaining: at Washington (W), Carolina (W), at Minnesota (L) - 20-19
- - -
7. Dallas Cowboys (9-7). Remaining: at New Orleans (L), at Washington (L), Philadelphia (W) - 25-13
8 Atlanta Falcons (8-8). Remaining: at New York Jets (L), Buffalo (W), at Tampa Bay (W) - 13-26

New York wins the tie for the final NFC Wild Card thanks to their season sweep of the Cowboys. The Giants play at Philadelphia, with the winner heading to Minnesota to play the Vikings. Green Bay plays at the Cardinals, with the winner playing in New Orleans against the top-seeded Saints.

Points of Note
- Potentially only the Eagles-Giants game will see any bad weather among NFC playoff games. The other games will all be played in either Arizona or in a dome if the seeds hold.
- The AFC playoffs will see similar conditions as first round games will be in New England and Cincinnati, but if the seeds hold, the rest of the games will either be in San Diego or a dome.
- The Giants and Eagles would meet in the opening round for the second consecutive season. Philadelphia won that game and swept the series this season. They have a four-game winning streak against the Giants.
- Dallas has the toughest schedule among all contenders in the NFC (opponents are 25-13), while the Jets have the worst schedule in the AFC (28-11).
- The Jets play Indianapolis in Week 16 and Cincinnati in Week 17. Both of those teams' seedings may be set by that time, so the Jets may wind up with one of the easiest schedules. The Giants schedule could get a lot easier if Minnesota sits their starters in Week 17 as well, which is likely given that their seeding may be determined by then.
- The Eagles' tough schedule gets even tougher when you consider that San Francisco, Denver, and Dallas will all still be fighting for a playoff spot when they face Philly.
- Denver's schedule is easy on paper, but with two games against division rivals Oakland and Kansas City, nothing is certain.  They should win that one and perhaps lose at Philadelphia, but it isn't too far of a stretch to see them losing all three and missing the playoffs entirely.
- Arizona has the easiest schedule in the NFC (opponents are 12-27). Baltimore has the easiest in the AFC (15-24).
- Dallas has two tough games remaining (at New Orleans and home against Philadelphia), but their third game is in Washington. This is an easy win on paper, but they are bitter rivals and Washington held the Cowboys scoreless for over 58 minutes before surrendering a touchdown and losing 7-6 last month in Dallas.

NFL Week 13 Hangover

2009-12-08T14:44:00.000-08:00

Two NFL divisions are officially over after Week 13. Three more are unofficially over, and that leaves three other divisions and seven playoff spots in total turmoil. Here's a look at what's settled and what's still up for grabs.

AFC - Settled
AFC South Champions - Indianapolis Colts (12-0)

AFC - Up For Grabs
Top seed - Indianapolis leads the race for the AFC's top seed by three games with four to play.
Byes - Indianapolis can clinch a first round bye with any Colts win and any loss by San Diego or Cincinnati. The Chargers and Bengals are tied for the second bye (9-3), and the Chargers hold the tie-breaker based on record against AFC opponents, but the two square off in San Diego in Week 15.
Playoff Home Field - Indianapolis can clinch home field throughout the playoffs with any win and any loss by both San Diego and Cincinnati.
AFC North Champions - Cincinnati (9-3) swept the season series against Pittsburgh (6-6) and Baltimore (6-6) and will clinch the division with any Bengals win or any loss by both the Steelers and Ravens.
AFC West Champions - San Diego (9-3) is one game ahead of Denver (8-4) for the division crown. The two split the season series and the Chargers have one more conference win than do the Broncos.
AFC East Champions - New England (7-5) is one game ahead of both New York and Miami (6-6) for the division crown. The Patriots split the season series with both teams, but the Dolphins swept the Jets.
AFC Wild Cards - The Broncos (8-4) sit in good position, one game ahead of Jacksonville (7-5), and two games ahead of the four-way log-jam at 6-6 between the Ravens, Dolphins, Jets, and Steelers (who sit in that order based on tie-breakers).

AFC - Projections
1. Indianapolis Colts (16-0). Remaining: Denver (W), at Jacksonville (W), New York Jets (W), at Buffalo (W).
2. San Diego Chargers (12-4). Remaining: at Dallas (L), Cincinnati (W), at Tennessee (W), Washington (W)
3. Cincinnati Bengals (11-5). Remaining: at Minnesota (L), at San Diego (L), Kansas City (W), at New York Jets (W)
4. New England Patriots (10-6). Remaining: Carolina (W), at Buffalo (W), Jacksonville (W), at Houston (L)
5. Denver Broncos (10-6). Remaining: at Indianapolis (L), Oakland (W), at Philadelphia (L), Kansas City (W)
6. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7). Remaining: Miami (W), Indianapolis (L), at New England (L), at Cleveland (W)

7. Baltimore Ravens (9-7). Remaining: Detroit (W), Chicago (W), at Pittsburgh (L), at Oakland (W)
8. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7). Remaining: at Cleveland (W), Green Bay (W), Baltimore (W), at Miami (L)
9. Miami Dolphins (8-8). Remaining: at Jacksonville (L), at Tennessee (L), Houston (W), Pittsburgh (W)
10. New York Jets (8-8). Remaining: at Tampa Bay (W), Atlanta (W), at Indianapolis (L), Cincinnati (L)

Jacksonville advances to the playoffs based on an 8-4 AFC record. Baltimore will be 8-5. Pittsburgh will be 6-6. They will travel to Cincinnati to face the Bengals, with the winner traveling to San Diego. Denver heads to New England to play the Patriots, with the winner playing at Indianapolis.

NFC - Settled
NFC South Champions - New Orleans Saints (12-0)

NFC - Up For Grabs
Top seed - New Orleans leads the race for the NFC's top seed by 2 games over Minnesota.
Byes - New Orleans can clinch a first round bye with a win. Minnesota (10-2) has a two game lead for the second bye over Arizona (8-4), Dallas (8-4), Philadelphia (8-4), and Green Bay (8-4).
Playoff Home Field - New Orleans can clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs with any combination of 3 of their wins and Minnesota losses.
NFC North Champions - Minnesota (10-2) swept the season series against Green Bay (8-4) and can clinch the division crown with any combination of two Vikings wins and Packers losses.
NFC West Champions - Arizona (8-4) is three games ahead of San Francisco (5-7) but lost to the 49ers in Week 1. They can clinch the division with a win over the 49ers in Week 14, otherwise they would need some combination of two Cardinal wins and 49er losses in the final three weeks.
NFC East Champions - Dallas (8-4) and Philadelphia (8-4) are tied for the division lead, but Dallas already won in Philadelphia and they meet in Dallas in Week 17. New York (7-5) is one game back, having already swept Dallas and lost in Philadelphia. The Giants host the Eagles in Week 14. The tie-breaker in a 3-way tie for a division is record in games among those involved, and currently the Giants are 2-1, the Cowboys are 1-2, and the Eagles are 1-1.
NFC Wild Cards - The Eagles (8-4) and Green Bay (8-4) are currently in Wild Card position, with a one game lead over the Giants (7-5), and two game lead over Atlanta (6-6). The Eagles hold the tie-breaker with the Giants currently based on their head-to-head win, but the two face eachother in New York in Week 14. Even with a Giants win, the Eagles would maintain their Wild Card lead over the Giants by virtue of their 7-3 NFC record vs. the Giants' 6-3 NFC record. The Packers can hold their spot with a Week 14 win in Chicago, but would reliquish it to the Giants should the Packers lose and Giants win (6-4 and 6-3 in the NFC, respectively).

NFC - Projections
1. New Orleans Saints (16-0). Remaining: at Atlanta (W), Dallas, (W), Tampa Bay (W), at Carolina (W)
2. Minnesota Vikings (14-2). Remaining: Cincinnati (W), at Carolina (W), at Chicago (W), New York Giants (W)
3. Arizona Cardinals (11-5). Remaining: at San Francisco (W), at Detroit (W), St. Louis (W), Green Bay (L)
4. New York Giants (10-6). Remaining: Philadelphia (W), at Washington (W), Carolina (W), at Minnesota (L)
5. Green Bay Packers (11-5). Remaining: at Chicago (W), at Pittsburgh (L), Seattle (W), at Arizona (W)
6. Dallas Cowboys (10-6). Remaining: San Diego (W), at New Orleans (L), at Washington (L), Philadelphia (W)

7. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6). Remaining: at New York Giants (L), San Francisco (W), Denver (W), at Dallas (L)
8 Atlanta Falcons (8-8). Remaining: New Orleans (L), at New York Jets (L), Buffalo (W), at Tampa Bay (W)

New York wins the 3-way tie atop the NFC East thanks to their 3-1 record against the Eagles and Cowboys (Dallas is 2-2 against the others, and Philly is 1-3). Dallas will play at Arizona, with the winner heading to Minnesota to play the Vikings. Green Bay plays at the Giants with the winner playing in New Orleans against the top-seeded Saints.

Points of Note
- Potentially only the Packers-Giants game will see any bad weather among NFC playoff games. The other games will all be played in either Arizona or in a dome unless Dallas upsets Arizona and Minnesota, and the Giants or Packers upset New Orleans.
- The AFC playoffs will see similar conditions as first round games will be in New England and Cincinnati, but if the seeds hold, the rest of the games will either be in San Diego or a dome.
- Dallas has the toughest schedule among all contenders (opponents are 32-16).
- Arizona has the easiest schedule among all contenders (opponents are 16-32).

NFL Week 12 Hangover

2009-12-01T11:34:00.000-08:00

We know the Colts, Saints, and Vikings are in the playoffs, with only seeding yet to be determined. The Colts already clinched the AFC South with five game remaining, but the Saints are still a game away from doing so in the NFC South. The Vikings can wrap up the NFC North with a win and a Packers loss in Week 13. But every other playoff spot is up for grabs - six teams are still within striking distance for the remaining four spots in the NFC, and seven AFC teams still have good shot at claiming one of the remaining five spots in that conference.

Here's how they lay out currently along with where they'll be playing in January.
AFC
1. Colts (11-0) - AFC South Champions. Remaining games: Home vs. Tennessee, Denver, and New York Jets. At Jacksonville and Buffalo. Predicted finish: 16-0, #1 seed.
t2. Chargers (8-3) - Lead AFC West by 1 game. Remaining games: Home vs. Cincinnati and Washington. At Cleveland, Dallas, and Tennessee. Predicted finish: 12-4, #4 seed.
t2. Bengals (8-3) - Lead AFC North by 2 games. Remaining games: Home vs. Detroit and Kansas City. At Minnesota, San Diego, and New York Jets. Predicted finish: 12-4, #2 seed.
4. Patriots (7-4) - Lead AFC East by 2 games. Remaining games: Home vs. Carolina and Jacksonville. At Miami, Buffalo, and Texas. Predicted finish: 12-4, #3 seed.
5. Broncos (7-4) - 2nd in AFC West by 1 game. Remaining games: Home vs. Oakland. At Kansas City, Indianapolis, Philadelphia, and Kansas City. Predicted finish: 10-6, #6 seed.
t6. Ravens (6-5) - 2nd in AFC North by 2 games. Remaining games: Home vs. Detroit and Chicago. At Green Bay, Pittsburgh, and Oakland. Predicted finish: 9-7, #8 (out).
t6. Jaguars (6-5) - 2nd in AFC South by 5 games. Remaining games: Home vs. Houston, Miami, and Indianapolis. At New England and Cleveland. Predicted finish: 9-7, #7 (out).
t6. Steelers (6-5) - 3rd in AFC North by 2 games. Remaining games: Home vs. Oakland, Green Bay, and Baltimore. At Cleveland and Miami. Predicted finish: 10-6, #5 seed (win tie-breaker over Denver based on head-to-head win).

Miami (5-6), New York Jets (5-6), Houston (5-6), and Tennessee (5-6) are all still in contention but need a lot of help to make the playoffs.

The Colts (bye) would host the winner of the Steelers at the Chargers.
The Bengals (bye) would host the winner of the Broncos at the Patriots.

NFC
1. Saints (11-0) - Lead NFC South by 5 games. Remaining games: Home vs. Dallas and Tampa Bay. At Washington, Atlanta, and Carolina. Predicted finish: 16-0, #1 seed.
2. Vikings (10-1) - Lead NFC North by 3 games. Remaining games: Home vs. Cincinnati and New York Giants. At Arizona, Carolina, and Chicago. Predicted finish: 15-1, #2 seed.
3. Cowboys (8-3) - Lead NFC East by 1 game. Remaining games: Home vs. San Diego and Philadelphia. At New York Giants, New Orleans, and Washington. Predicted finish: 10-6, #6 seed.
4. Cardinals (7-4) - Lead NFC West by 2 games. Remaining games: Home vs. Minnesota, St. Louis, and Green Bay. At San Francisco and Detroit. Predicted finish: 11-5, #3 seed.
5. Eagles (7-4) 2nd in NFC East by 1 game. Remaining games: Home vs. San Francisco and Denver. At Atlanta, New York Giants, and Dallas. Predicted finish: 9-7, #8 (out).
t5. Packers (7-4) - 2nd in NFC North by 3 games. Remaining games: Home vs. Baltimore and Seattle. At Chicago, Pittsburgh, and Arizona. Predicted finish: 11-5, #5 seed.
t7. Giants (6-5) - 3rd in NFC East by 2 games. Remaining games: Home. vs. Dallas, Philadelphia, and Carolina. At Washington and Minnesota. Predicted finish: 10-6, #4 seed (win tie-breaker over Dallas based on two head-to-head wins).
t7. Falcons (6-5) - 2nd in NFC South by 5 games. Remaining games: Home vs. Philadelphia, New Orleans, and Buffalo. At New York Jets and Tampa Bay. Predicted finish: 10-6, #7 (out - lose tie-breakers to NYG and Dallas based on head-to-head losses).

San Francisco (5-6) is still in contention but needs a lot of help to make the playoffs.

The Saints (bye) would host the winner of the Packers at the Giants.
The Vikings (bye) would host the winner of the Cowboys at the Cardinals.

NFL Week 10 Hangover

2009-11-17T15:34:00.000-08:00

With Week 10 behind us, all 32 teams have had a bye week and are even in games played. As the weather turns cold (in other places, not so much here in Southern California), the playoff races will start to heat up. Here's a look at where they stand today and, in brackets, a prediction of where they'll be next week:

AFC 1: Indianapolis Colts (9-0) [1]
AFC 2: Cincinnati Bengals (7-2) [2]
AFC 3: Denver Broncos (6-3) [6]
AFC 4: New England Patriots (6-3) [3]
AFC 5: San Diego Chargers (6-3) [4]
AFC 6: Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4) [5]

The Colts have home field advantage throughout the playoffs and a first round bye because they hold the best record. The Bengals have home field advantage throughout the playoffs aginst everyone but the Colts, and a first round bye because they hold the second best record. Denver wins the tie-breaker over San Diego because of their head-to-head win, so they get the division champ-spot, and they beat New England head-to-head, so they win that tie breaker and get the 3 seed. They host Jacksonville and the winner plays at Cincinnati. New England hosts San Diego with the winner playing at Indianapolis. Jacksonville wins the tie-breaker with Houston because of a head-to-head win. They win the tie-breaker with Baltimore because their winning percentage against AFC opponents is better.

NFC 1: New Oleans Saints (9-0) [1]
NFC 2: Minnesota Vikings (8-1) [2]
NFC 3: Dallas Cowboys (6-3) [3]
NFC 4: Arizona Cardinals (6-3) [4]
NFC 5: Philadelphia Eagles (5-4) [-]
NFC 6: Green Bay Packers (5-4) [5]

The Saints have home field advantage throughout the playoffs and a first round bye because they hold the best record. The Vikings have home field advantage throughout the playoffs aginst everyone but the Saints, and a first round bye because they hold the second best record. Dallas wins the tie-breaker over Arizona because they have a better record against NFC opponents and gets the 3 seed. They host Green Bay and the winner plays at Minnesota. Arizona hosts Philadelphia with the winner playing at New Orleans. Philadelphia wins the tie-breaker the Giants because of a head-to-head win, and they also win the tie-breaker with the Packers and Falcons because of a better record against NFC opponents. The Packers win the tie-breaker with the Giants because of a better record against NFC opponents, and they also win the tie-breaker with Atlanta because of a better record against common opponents.

Big Winners In Week 10
Cincinnati Bengals - For those who still said that the Bengals weren't for real even after sweeping the Ravens and beating the Steelers once en route to an AFC North lead (and there were many), they did a lot to silence them with yet another win over the Steelers, this time in Pittsburgh.
New York Giants - The Giants had played themselves out of a first round bye and into missing the playoffs with four straight losses. Then in Week 10 they pulled into a tie with Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Green Bay for a Wild Card spot, and are just one game behind Dallas (who they beat in Dallas already) for the NFC East lead. And they did it all while resting their injured players and getting a starting cornerback and a starting linebacker back during a bye week.
Anti-Patriots Fans - Whether it is because they cheated, or because they've dominated, or because coach Belichick is not exactly lovable, a lot of people do not like the Patriots, and those people got an early Christmas present when the Greatest Mind in Football made a boneheaded play call that would have been dumb on Madden to cost the Pats the game and hand the Colts their 9th win against 0 losses this season.
Indianapolis Colts - See above
LaDainian Tomlinson - Two touchdowns, nearly 100 yards rushing, and one pregnant wife say that LDT is not done delivering the goods quite yet.
Tennessee Titans - Just pretend that the first six weeks didn't count and Vince Young was the starter all along...then you're undefeated!

Big Losers in Week 10
Maurice Jones-Drew Fantasy Owners - MJD actually apologized after the game for taking a knee on the 2-yard line rather than scoring late in the game against the Jets. Crazy as the play was considering he was losing at the time, it set up the game-winning field goal and bled off too much time for the Jets to come back.
Bills Fans - A loss, Terrell Owens blew up and blamed everyone for it (except himself despite that it was a pass that went through his hands that got picked off and returned for a touchdown, startign the late romp), an 86-year-old man made headlines for taunting you over the loss, and Dick Jauron got fired.
Belichick Apologizers - Folks, I don't care if it is JaMarcus Russell on the other sideline. You don't risk giving anyone over 2 minutes to go only 28 yards for a win. Bad decision to go for it, bad play selection, bad, bad, bad.
New York Jets - Stopping Maurice Jones-Drew is not easy, but the Jets got torched on a last minute drive to lose a game that they had just won with a late drive of their own. They've lost 5 of 6 and still could have been just a game out of the playoffs if they could have held the very average Jags down late.
NFL Network - Nice season opener on Thursday between the 49ers and the Bears. Despite the marquee time slot, it might have been the worst game of the year...until Monday night's snoozer. Maybe Time Warner customers are the lucky ones since they didn't have to watch that 49ers-Bears game.
Denver Broncos - 6-0 start...poof! Huge division lead...poof! First round bye...poof! Self-respect...poof! Losing three in-a-row is bad, but losing to the Redskins? It's gotta be hard to look in the mirror right now.
JaMarcus Russell - 8 for 23, 64 yards. Those are bad numbers. Getting benched because you're losing to the Chiefs? Wow. Russell, the worst draft pick in the history of the NFL, has two touchdowns on the season, despite having started nine games.
Cleveland Browns - The Browns ran on the Ravens' half of the field all night. And it was an interception returned for a touchdown. Who's the third string quarterback?

Front Seven
1 Indianapolis Colts (9-0)
2 New Orleans Saints (9-0)
3 Minnesota Vikings (8-1)
4 Cincinnati Bengals (7-2)
5 Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3)
6 New England Patriots (6-3)
7 Arizona Cardinals (6-3)

NFL Week 10 Preview

2009-11-13T13:10:00.000-08:00

Week 10 started off early as the Bears traveled to Candlestick to the take on the 49ers on Thursday night, and that game wound up being a microcosm of what the rest of the week looks like it may shape up to be: almost completely unwatchable football. Besides the two games of the week, both of which could be fantastic, there is really nothing else worth watching. So without further ado, here is your Week 10 lineup, featuring anything I could think of that might make that game worth watching.

Game of the Week I: Cincinnati Bengals (6-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2) 10 AM - CBS

We, in the L.A. area, were thisclose to getting stuck watching the Raiders-Chiefs game, but someone mercifully scheduled this game to air instead. Divisional rivals. The home team hasn't lost at home. The road team hasn't lost on the road. #5 vs. #6 in scoring defense. First place on the line. A first round by on the line (maybe). The two biggest "no one gives us any respect" teams in the league this year. Cincy scored 14 unanswered in the 4th quarter to win by 3 in Week 3. Superstars all over the place. Don't miss this game. Prediction: Steelers win and cover (-6.5)

Game of the Week II: New England Patriots (6-2) at Indianapolis Colts (8-0) 5:20 - NBC

The Colts were unable to spoil New England's run at a perfect season two years ago and now they get a chance at a little revenge by extending their own such run at the Patriots' expense. There isn't a whole lot of hype needed for this one. Brady vs. Peyton. Indy is thin in the secondary, but this game is on turf so Indy wins. Prediction: Colts win and cover (-2.5)

Lock of the Week: Detroit Lions (1-7) at Minnesota Vikings (7-1) 10 AM - Fox
It is always a mystery how they decide which games air in which cities. This game will be on pretty much everywhere besides in other teams' home markets. But then the Central Coast of California and most of New England will get Atlanta at Carolina. San Diego County will get New Orleans at Seattle. West Virginia will get Tampa Bay at Miami. Then everyone else is basically regional. I find this all odd. Why write about it here? Because this game has the largest point spread of the season, larger than many BCS schools' preseason points spreads, and it just isn't worth researching. Prediction: Vikings win and cover (-16.5)

Buffalo Bills (3-5) at Tennessee Titans (2-6) 10 AM
Vince Young is 2-0 as a starter for Tennessee this season. Terrell Owens drops the ball a lot. That's pretty much it. Prediction: Titans win, Bills cover (+6.5)

New Orleans Saints (8-0) at St. Louis Rams (1-7) 10 AM
The question here is if the Saints will score more points than Steven Jackson has rushing yards. And both numbers might be in triple digits. Prediction: Saints win and cover (-13.5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-7) at Miami Dolphins (3-5) 10 AM
Tampa showed some signs of life last week with new rookie quarterback Josh Freeman behind center when they shocked Green Bay. But the battle of Florida has about the same luster that the college version of it between Miami and Florida State has had for the past few years. Prediction: Dolphins win, Buccaneers cover (+9.5)

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-4) at New York Jets (4-4) 10 AM
Not only is both teams' main color green, which is unusual, but they are the only two major American sports franchises that start with a "J". So that's interesting. There's also the USC (Mark Sanchez) vs. UCLA (Maurice Jones-Drew) angle. Prediction: Jets win and cover (-6.5)

Denver Broncos (6-2) at Washington Redskins (2-6) 10 AM
After starting out 6-0 thanks to a few miracles, the Broncos have been hammered the last two games to bring their new coach and new quarterback back to earth. Luckily they play the Redskins this week, who are only barely an actual NFL team, and that should get them back on track. And even with those two losses in-a-row, you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone who regrets dumping Jay Cutler on the Bears. Prediction: Broncos win and cover (-4.5)

Atlanta Falcons (5-3) at Carolina Panthers (3-5) 10 AM
This is actually a sneaky-good game. Carolina's running game is helping to keep the ball out of Jake Delhomme's hands (and therefore out of the hands of their opponents' defensive backs, as well). They just beat up Arizona and then gave New Orleans a scare. And Atlanta has only lost to the Saints, Patriots, and Cowboys, all on the road. Prediction: Falcons win and cover (-1.5)

Kansas City Chiefs (1-7) at Oakland Raiders (2-6) 1:05 PM
Not even the fact that this is a divisional rivalry game can save it from being one of the worst games ever. But it is always interesting to see what will be higher: the other team's point total or JaMarcus Russell's quarterback rating. Prediction: Chiefs win and cover (+1.5)

Dallas Cowboys (6-2) at Green Bay Packers (4-4) 4:15 PM - Fox
It is November and Dallas doesn't lose in November. Also it is the NFL, and the Packers don't really beat anyone in the NFL (four wins this year: Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, and St. Louis...combined 7-26 this season). Prediction: Cowboys win and cover (-2.5)

Seattle Seahawks (3-5) at Arizona Cardinals (5-3) 4:15 PM
Two weeks ago Kurt Warner threw 5 picks and lost a fumble. Last week he threw 5 touchdowns. Guess which one they won and which they lost. Did you know? Seattle is still in league. Prediction: Cardinals win and cover (-8.5)

Philadelphia Eagles (5-3) at San Diego Chargers (5-3) 4:15 PM
While it is easier coming west than it is going east, it is tough traveling 3 time zones to play a game so San Diego has a huge advantage in this one. If you like passing and bad clock management, this is the game for you. The Eagles wouldn't run if they were an extra in a Godzilla movie, and LaDainian Tomlinson has aged faster than a bowl of guacamole left in the sun. And I don't have any snappy turns of phrase for how badly Andy Reid is at clock management, but let's just say if it's within a touchdown either way in the last 3 minutes, San Diego will win. Prediction: Chargers win and cover (-2.5)

Baltimore Ravens (4-4) at Cleveland Browns (1-7) Monday 5:30 PM - ESPN
People in Cleveland would probably still be bitter that the Ravens left (and the way they left) even if the new Browns hadn't been such a disaster since coming into the league, but it can't have helped. It is nice to see Eric Mangini sticking to his guns to help turn the franchise around though. First he said there would be a preseason quarterback competition. Then Brady Quinn won the job and was his man. Until Quinn got benched, reportedly dangled in trade taks, and Derek Anderson was installed as the starting quarterback. Until he was benched this week and Quinn was put back in at starter. But at least their best receiver was traded away, their second best receiver and big free agent signee was thrown in jail for killing a pedestrian, their star runningback is publicly criticizing their new coach, their star tight end was traded away, and their #5 draft pick was traded away and is now a starting quarterback for the Jets. Oh wait, all those things are bad. Prediction: Ravens win and cover (-10.5)

All times are Pacific and TV airing info is for the Los Angeles area only (subject to change). Check this site for more.

Irony, Thy Name Is Diet Pepsi

2009-11-13T11:02:00.000-08:00

In Week 9, Eagles' tight end Brent Celek scored a touchdown and promptly went into what looks a lot like the "Captain Morgan"-pose. Celek denies that it was intentional, but unless this photo was taken as he was mid-way into a sumo-stomp, I can't really imagine what else he was doing.

So the NFL of course is going to fine Celek for the stunt, if you'd call that mild display a stunt. I say "of course" because they haven't announced the fine yet, but this is the same league that fined Chad Ochocinco $5,000 for wearing the wrong colored chinstrap. So yeah, Celek is getting a fine.

In the NFL's defense though, they do have an official policy that such a display as Celek's is illegal. NFL spokesman Greg Aiello was quoted as saying, "The issue is that players are specifically prohibited under our policies from wearing, displaying, promoting or otherwise conveying their support of a commercially identified product during a game while they’re on the field."

And you can see how such a policy would be a good idea. While I think fining Ochocinco that much for being "out of uniform" is a little exorbitant, they have to draw lines somewhere. And players wearing "PokerStars.com" stickers on their helmets might cross a few lines. Overly invasive product advertising is annoying, so good for the NFL for curbing it. Nevermind the brand logos on league-mandated uniform pieces like cleats, gloves, jerseys, helmets, pads, and pants.

The irony of the story comes in when you read the next part of Aiello's quote and look more closely at the above, offending photograph. “Whether it’s rum or soft drinks or any other commercial product, that type of promotion is prohibited.” And what's that in 3-storey letters hanging behind Celek inside the stadium? A soft drink ad. Aiello did not go on to say, "We will take money from anyone and everyone, and place ads anywhere and everywhere, just like any other league and team would do, but by God if our players do it, we will make the amount Mark Cuban gets fined each year look as insignificant as it is to Mark Cuban," but he may as well have.

And on purpose or not, fine or not, it looks like a nice chunk of change will be changing hands regardless. It seems that Captain Morgan is reportedly donating $10,000 to the Gridiron Greats Assitance Fund (helping retired NFL players) for each instance in the regular season that a player is caught in the company's signature pose. Then $25,000 for the playoffs, and $100,000 in the Super Bowl.

So the NFL is just mad that they and whoever is airing the games will be missing out on ad revenue because Captain Morgan will be getting advertising without paying for commercials or stadium banners (which they do anyway). The funny thing is that if the NFL hadn't made a stink about Celek doing this, no one would have noticed it, no one would have heard about the donation campaign, and Captain Morgan wouldn't have really gotten any free adverstising from it.

NFL Week 9 Preview

2009-11-06T12:37:00.000-08:00

Game of the Week I: Dallas Cowboys (5-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-2) 5:20 PM - NBC

You never know what you're going to get with either of these two teams, but if both play as they did last week, this could be a classic. They're similar is many other ways as well, both with red-hot quarterbacks, play-making young wide receivers, and defenses that could just as easily give up 30 points as pitch a shutout with 5 or 6 sacks and 3 take-aways. The main difference is in the running game. Both teams are relatively average in run defense, but Dallas is averaging 30 more yards per game and almost a whole yard per carry than Philly. If the Cowboys can contain Philly's big plays (a tall task for the league's 8th worst pass defense), they will run the Eagles into the ground. Prediction: Eagles win and cover (-3.5)

Game of the Week II: Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) at Denver Broncos (6-1) Monday 5:30 PM - ESPN
If the Broncos felt they weren't getting enough respect as they jumped out to that 6-0 start, they quickly got a chance to prove their mettle in Baltimore. And they got hammered. Now they play host the Pittsburgh who had won 4-in-a-row (including over the then-undefeated Vikings) before their bye last week. Rashard Mendenhall will test the Broncos excellent run defense, but more importanly, the Steelers defense will likely harrass Kyle Orton and the Broncos' offense just like the Ravens did last week. Prediction: Steelers win and cover (-3.5)

Washington Redskins (2-5) at Atlanta Falcons (4-3) 10 AM
Generally speaking the way to pull off an upset is by controlling the clock with a solid running game and winning the turnover battle. Of course, if the underdog could do those things consistantly, they probably wouldn't be underdogs. The 'Skins are 26th in the league in rushing yards per game and 30th in turnover margin. And the Falcons are just too balanced on offense for Washington to stop them. Prediction: Falcons win and cover (-10.5)

Arizona Cardinals (4-3) at Chicago Bears (4-3) 10 AM - Fox
Arizona's once-league-leading run defense dropped to 9th after last week when they got shredded by Carolina. So if the grossly-underperforming Matt Forte did his homework and watched that tape, he may be able to dominate this one for the Bears. Forte won't likely be able to have a breakout game though, so Jay Cutler just needs to avoid interceptions and the Bears will wear down the Cards. Prediction: Bears win and cover (-3.5)

Baltimore Ravens (4-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) 10 AM
The Bengals probably feel like they haven't gotten enough respect after beating the Ravens and Packers on the road, as well as the Steelers in Cincy, and only losing to the Broncos on a miracle-tipped pass for a touchdown to end the game. But outside of Week 7's blowout of Chicago, they barely won the other 4 this season. So are they good enough to get it done, or very, very lucky? They ran all over the Ravens in Baltimore last month and that won't happen again. Prediction: Ravens win and cover (-2.5)

Houston Texans (5-3) at Indianapolis Colts (7-0) 10 AM
Steve Slaton lost his job due to a fumbling problem and while Ryan Moats had a huge game last week, the Colts will have had time to watch tape of him and diagnose how to slow him down. Matt Schaub and the Texans' passing game is good enough to hang with Peyton Manning and the Colts' if they stay away from turnovers, but Indy is +6 in turnover margin. Prediction: Colts win and cover (-9.5)

Miami Dolphins (3-4) at New England Patriots (5-2) 10 AM - CBS
The last time the Dolphins were in Foxboro, they unveiled the Wildcat offense and in the weeks since then we have seen it catch like wildfire throughout the NFL. But we have also seen this season that though the Dolphins can run the ball very well and dominate the clock, they just aren't a very good team. They held the ball for twice as long as Indy did earlier this year and still lost because they gave up big play after big play. Last I checked, New England had some "big-play-ability." Prediction: Patriots win and cover (-10.5)

Green Bay Packers (4-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-7) 10 AM
The Bucs will have a new quarterback this week and may have a slightly different feel to them, having had a bye week to remake their struggling offense. But let's face it, rookie Josh Freeman (the new starting quarterback) was third on the depth chart to start the season behind two guys that stunk it up. However the Bucs are at home and there is the possibility that the Packers will be looking past the dismal Buccaneers at the Cowboys next week. There is also the possibility that Aaron Rodgers (the league's passer rating leader) throws for 400 yards and 5 touchdowns. Prediction: Packers win and cover (-10.5)

Kansas City Chiefs (1-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-4) 10 AM
Detroit Lions (1-6) at Seattle Seahawks (2-5) 1:05 PM
Tennessee Titans (1-6) at San Francisco 49ers (3-4) 1:15 PM
I got a cortisone shot in my wrist yesterday and don't feel like these games are worth the effort or pain of typing about them. Prediction: Jaguars, Seahawks, and 49ers win and cover (-6.5, -10.5, and -4.5, respectively)

Lock of the Week: Carolina Panthers (3-4) at New Orleans Saints (7-0) 1:05 PM
Jake Delhomme didn't throw a pick last week, but he only threw the ball 15 times, while Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams piled up 270 rushing yards. They won't run like that against New Orleans and Delhomme will have to make plays with his arm...that's not a recipe for success lately. Carolina has to be perfect just to stay with New Orleans, and they won't be. The Saints weren't able to put Atlanta away last week, but they'll get another double digit win this week, making it 4 out of 5 at home this season. Prediction: Saints win and cover (-14.5)

San Diego Chargers (4-3) at New York Giants (5-3) 1:15 PM - CBS
Enough time has passed that this is no longer a grudge match for the Chargers who may have felt slighted when Eli Manning said he'd rather play in New York. More importantly for both teams, it is a must-win game to stay in the playoff race. The Chargers stumbled out of the gate as the Broncos bolted to a huge lead, and the Giants have stumbled lately, letting the Cowboys and Eagles pass them by. Neither star runningback is performing this season, so the game will rest on the shoulders of their backups (Darren Sproles and Ahmad Bradshaw) the defenses. Once again, if the Giants' pass rush can get to Phillip Rivers, the Giants will roll at home. If he stays upright in the pocket, he will torch them like the last three pass-first offenses the Giants have faced. Prediction: Giants win, Chargers cover (+4.5)

All times are Pacific and TV airing info is for the Los Angeles area only (subject to change). Check this site for more.

NFL Week 8 Preview

2009-10-30T14:40:00.000-07:00

Week 8 features five fantastic games: divisional rivalry games, battles between playoff favorites, bad blood. And then there are the rest: likely blowups, bad teams playing bad teams, likely naps. Sadly, Fox and CBS are sticking L.A. viewers with probably the worst two games Saturday morning. Fox chose the potential blowout that is San Francisco at Indianapolis over a playoff rematch that also happens to be a division rivalry with bad blood, which also happens to feature the same two cities that are meeting in the World Series later that day (Giants at Eagles). CBS is sticking us with the potential blowout that is Oakland at San Diego rather than either Denver at Baltimore, or Miami at the Jets. So as if you needed a reason to go to a sports bar on Sunday, watching the good games on satellite should give you all the reason you need.

Game of the Week: Minnesota Vikings (6-1) at Green Bay Packers (4-2) 1:15 PM - Fox
Apparently at some point, the Vikings quarterback used to be in the Packers' franchise, so this is a sort homecoming for home or whatever. We'll see if that story get any media attention, but perhaps a more important story is that fact that the Vikings stranglehold on this division will wither considerably with a loss to the Packers. The teams are both very good and very evenly matched, and weather should not play a significant rolle, so the game will likely swing on who takes care of the ball. Green Bay's turnover margin is +10 this season, while Minnesota's is +7. So no solid hints there either. When in doubt, go with the home team. Prediction: Packers win , Vikings cover (+3.5)

Miami Dolphins (2-4) at New York Jets (4-3) 10 AM
Rex Ryan's aggressive, blitzing defense had huge problems with the Dolphins' wildcat offense in their earlier matchup this season in Miami. The Dolphins ran all over the Jets. But they still were only able to scrape together a 3-point win in their own building. You can expect Ryan to have made a few changes to the Jets' defensive attack, and you can expect the Jets to split the season series with Miami with a win in New Jersey. Prediction: Jets win and cover (-3.5)

Denver Broncos (6-0) at Baltimore Ravens (3-3) 10 AM
A few weeks ago, both of these teams were undefeated and this game looked like it might surprisingly play an early role in the AFC playoff home field chase. Baltimore has been snake-bitten since, but the Broncos' luck hasn't changed yet. The Ravens' Ray Rice will be pitted against the league's best run defense and he may have to win this one on his own. Denver's Kyle Orton has been nearly perfect this season (just 1 interception) and while he is a fine quarterback, you would have to expect that his and the team's luck has to end sometime. When? Against this defense is as good a guess as any. Prediction: Ravens win, Broncos cover (+3.5)

New York Giants (5-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-2) 10 AM
The Giants beat up on their weak, early season opponents, but have lost two in-a-row to perhaps the Conference's two best teams. This week they fight to remain on top in the NFC East against the team that ended their Super Bowl defense in the playoffs last season. The Eagles have been quite inconsistent this season and there is no telling which team will show up. Injuries plague both teams, but if the Giants can run and ball and put pressure on Donovan McNabb (which are supposedly this team's strengths), they will get revenge on the road. Prediction: Giants win and cover (+2.5)

Atlanta Falcons (4-2) at New Orleans Saints (6-0) Monday 5:30 PM
Atlanta allows teams to move the ball all over the field - they're in the bottom 10 in yards allowed. But they are in the top 10 in points allowed. So the question Monday night is, how far can the Falcons bend before Drew Brees breaks them? And keep in mind that the Saints have tended to make just about everyone break this year. In fact, they have punted the second fewest times in all of football this year. So if they get the ball, they're gonna score. It will be up to Atlanta's Michael Turner to make sure the ball is in his hands, and not Brees.' Prediction: Saints win and cover (-9.5)

Houston Texans (4-3) at Buffalo Bills (3-4) 10 AM
The story here is the Bills' defense. They have picked off 9 passes in their last two games, but they are also 32nd against the run. So the game will probably be put into Steve Slaton's hands, and lately that has been a good thing for Houston. Buffalo's offense is a complete mess, with their quarterback spot wide open, thus wasting Lee Evans fine work at receiver. And they also have some other receiver leading the league in drops, which isn't helping the quarterback stability. Prediction: Texans win, Bills cover (+3.5)

Cleveland Browns (1-6) at Chicago Bears (3-3) 10 AM
This week's sign that parity is dead in the NFL: The Bears are 3-3 and favored by 2 touchdowns...and that's not the biggest spread this week! Matt Forte has been terrible running the ball for Chicago this year, but fanstasy owners across the nation can rejoice as he gets to face the Brown's defense this week (2nd worst against the run). As long as Jay Cutler is only throwing to the guys in the same colored shirt as him, the Bears will roll. Unfortunately, he's thrown to the others guys the second most in the league this year (10). Prediction: Bears win, Browns cover (+13.5)

Seattle Seahawks (2-4) at Dallas Cowboys (4-2) 10 AM
If you think the Cowboys have played at home every week this season, you're wrong. They also had a bye. Actually they've split home and away this year, but with all the talk about the Bigger-In-Texas Dome, it just seems like it they're there every week. They are in Week 8 and allegedly so will the Seahawks. But the Seahawks haven't shown up for most of their games this year so as long as the Cowboys run the ball a lot and keep it out of Tony Romo's skilled but somewhat turnover-prone hands, they will win. Prediction: Cowboys win and cover (-9.5)

St. Louis Rams (0-7) at Detroit Lions (1-5) 10 AM
Suppose for a moment that you were playing a team that was 0-16 last year. And they've only won once this year. And their starting quarterback and franchise wide receiver are likely out. You'd figure you were a favorite, right? Nope. No matter what Steven Jackson does, the Rams cannot find the endzone and the Rams look like serious contenders for worst team in NFL history (5-34 in last 39 games, 17 straight losses). So again, when you can't tell the difference between two teams, pick the home team. Prediction: Lions win, Rams cover (+3.5)

Lock of the Week: San Francisco 49ers (3-3) at Indianapolis Colts (6-0) 10 AM - Fox
Former franchise player/new starter Alex Smith took over at quarterback last week and seemed to begin to turn the ship around (though he ran out of time in Atlanta to win that one). It would be a much nicer story if he could take them out and win this week, but the scheduling gods dumped a Giants pile of Peyton Manning on his doorstep. The only way San Francisco keeps this close is if everything goes their way. Manning needs to be off his game, Smith needs to be on his. Frank Gore needs to dominate on the ground, and Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis need to dominate downfield. Don't hold your breath for any of those five things. Prediction: Colts win and cover (-9.5)

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3) at Tennessee Titans (0-6) 1:05 PM
This game is further proof that the teams will play every game on their schedules, whether anyone cares or comes to the games or not. Vince Young is back at quarterback for the Titans, and really it can't get worse than losing every game, so why not? Despite their record, Tennessee is actually top 10 in run defense (and you figure they see a lot of running since they're always trailing), so if they can stand up and stop Maurice Jones-Drew, they could get up off the mat finally. It's not good when you are the underdog to a team that is 0-6, but David Garrard will manage this one just well enough to pull off the massive upset. Prediction: Jaguars win and cover (+2.5)

Oakland Raiders (2-5) at San Diego Chargers (3-3) 1:05 PM - CBS
The Chargers opened the season by scraping together a narrow win in Week 1 in Oakland. A loss at home to the Raiders in Week 8 could basically end their season, but with this being the largest point-spread of the season thus far, that shouldn't happen. The Chargers are 3 games behind Denver and already lost at home to the Broncos, and play five potention playoff teams in their final 8 games. Oakland's pass defense is decent but they are awful against the run (30th: 169.7 yards per game), so if LaDainian Tomlinson can find some of his old magic, he may keep the Chargers alive in the AFC West race for at least one more week. Prediction: Chargers win, Raiders cover (+16.5)

Carolina Panthers (2-4) at Arizona Cardinals (4-2) 1:15 PM
Arizona hosts a bad team that they should crush, sandwiched between an impressive win at Giants Stadium and another huge test at Soldier Field next week. That officially labels this one as a trap game for the almost-champs, but then when you run the ball as badly as the Cardinals do, they're all trap games. Jake Delhomme's recent bout of interception-itis (13 this season in 6 games) began last year in a playoff loss to the Cardinals. Carolina's defense seems ready to take on the Cards' passing game - they allow the fewest yards per game of anyone. But they've also faced the fewest passing attempts and are one of the worst in completion percentage allowed. Kurt Warner will test them, likely throwing close to 40 times, and he is certainly known for his efficiency. Prediction: Cardinals win and cover (-9.5)

All times are Pacific and TV airing info is for the Los Angeles area only. See this website for what's airing in your area.

Season Predictions: 55-48 against the spread, 69-34 straight up
Last Week: 7-6 against the spread, 10-3 straight up

NFL Week 7 Hangover

2009-10-27T17:31:00.000-07:00

Week 7 Scores

Arizona Cardinals 24 - New York Giants 17

Houston Texans 24 - San Francisco 49ers 21

Green Bay Packers 31 - Cleveland Browns 3

San Diego Chargers 37 - Kansas City Chiefs 7

Indianapolis Colts 42 - St. Louis Rams 6

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 - Minnesota Vikings 17

New England Patriots 35 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

New York Jets 38 - Oakland Raiders 0

Buffalo Bills 20 - Carolina Panthers 9

Cincinnati Bengals 45 - Chicago Bears 10

Dallas Cowboys 37 - Atlanta Falcons 21

New Orleans Saints 46 - Miami Dolphins 34

Philadelphia Eagles 27 - Washington Redskins 17

Big Winners

-The Arizona Cardinals (4-2) won their final regular season game at Giants Stadium, where they'd been 2-15 in history, and now sit alone atop the NFC West thanks to San Francisco's loss.

-Odd-on favorites went 11-2 (the Giants and Panthers lost), and covered the spread in 10 of 13 games (Houston won but didn't cover the spread).

-Fans of blowouts must have been thrilled in Week 7 as only two games were decided by under 10 points, and six were decided by 28 or more!

-The Steelers' defense held the previously undefeated Vikings to just 17 points, scored two touchdowns, and held NFL rushing leader Adrian Peterson under 70 yards.

-NFL fans have not had to see or hear much from Terrell Owens since he was banished to Buffalo. Owens had three catches for 27 yaaaawwwn.

-All teams with higher draft picks than the Panthers can expect some trade offers before Draft Day as Carolina will likely want to trade up and get a quarterback. The Panthers current quarterback, Jake Delhomme, has thrown 4 touchdowns and 13 interceptions on the season.

-Bengals runningback Cedric Benson felt that the Bears had mistreated him during his time in Chicago. So he took it out on them by out-rushing Chicago's new star runningback by 165 yards (Carson Palmer's 5 touchdowns didn't hurt either).

-The New Orleans Saints were down 21 points on the road in a city where they've never won. But that just gave Drew Brees an excuse to stop pretending to want to use the running game. New Orleans won thanks in part to a 22-0 fourth quarter.

Big Losers

-The Oakland Raiders (2-5) followed up a shocking upset of Philadelphia by getting shut out at home by a team that had been struggling to stay afloat for their last three games (the Jets).

-Top Fantasy Runningbacks have generally been a disappointment this season, and that held true in Week 7. The top 8 in most drafts this year averaged 3.6 yards per carry and combined for only three touchdowns and one concussion (Peterson, Turner, Jones-Drew, Forte, Westbrook, Williams, Tomlinson, and Gore).

-49ers quarterback Shaun Hill lost his starting job after starting out 6 for 11 and guiding the 49ers to a 21-0 halftime deficit. Backup and former #1 over all pick Alex Smith then entered the game and led the team to three touchdowns in four possessions.

-Chiefs runningback Larry Johnson has another dismal performance on the field (16 carries for 49 yards), and then followed it up by badmouthing his coach and using a homosexual slur to refer to a fan on Twitter. Johnson apologized Monday afternoon, but not before referring to members of the media with the same slur Monday morning. But I'm sure the apology was sincere.

-The State of Missouri is 1-13 on the season and has been outscored by 16.2 points per game (KC and St. Louis).

-The United Kingdom had to endure watching the Tampa Bay Buccaneers up close in the NFL's misguided third annual trip to Wembley Stadium.

Fantasy Studs - The 10 Most Valuable Players of Week 7

1 - Miles Austin (WR-Dal) 171 yards recieving, 2 touchdowns, and was probably still available last week

2 - Vernon Davis (TE-SF) 93 yards receiving, 3 touchdowns

3 - Ricky Williams (RB-Mia) 80 yards rushing, 3 touchdowns, and was probably still available as well

4 - Shonn Greene (RB-NYJ) 144 yard rushing, 2 touchdowns, and was definately still available

5 - DeSean Jackson (WR-Phi) 67 yards rushing, 1 touchdown, 69 yards receiving, 1 touchdown)

6 - Carson Palmer (QB-Cin) 233 yards passing, 5 touchdowns

7 - Cedric Benson (RB-Cin) 189 yards rushing, 1 touchdown

8 - Chad Ochocinco (WR-Cin) 118 yards, 2 touchdowns

9 - Tony Romo (QB-Dal) 311 yards passing, 3 touchdowns, 31 yards rushing

10 - Ryan Grant (RB-GB) 148 yards rushing, 1 touchdown

Fantasy Thuds - High Expectations...Dismal Results

1 - Frank Gore (RB-SF) 32 yards rushing, 15 yards receiving

2 - Pierre Thomas (RB-NO) 30 yards rushing, 14 yards receiving

3 - Jonathan Stewart (RB-Car) 25 yards rushing, 20 yards receiving

4 - Marion Barber (RB-Dal) 47 yards rushing, 1 yard receiving

5 - Matt Forte (RB-Chi) 24 yards rushing, 25 yards receiving

6 - Tony Gonzalez (TE-Atl) 37 yards receiving

7 - Brett Favre (QB-Min) 334 yards passing, 1 interception, 1 fumble

8 - Donovan McNabb (QB-Phi) 156 yards passing, 1 touchdown

9 - Andre Johnson (WR-Hou) 62 yards receiving

10 - Eli Manning (QB-NYG) 243 yards passing, 1 touchdown, 3 interceptions

The Front Seven - The NFL's 7 best teams through Week 7
1 - New Orleans Saints (6-0, 1st NFC South) Total Offense: 1st (427.3), Total Defense: 11th (306.7), +18.5 ppg
2 - Indianapolis Colts (6-0, 1st AFC South) Total Offense 4th (402.5), Total Defense: 9th (291.7), +17.0 ppg
3 - New England Patriots (5-2, 1st AFC East) Total Offense: 3rd (406.0), Total Defense: 6th (285.7), +14.3 ppg
4 - Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2, T-1st AFC North) Total Offense: 7th (383.0), Total Defense: 8th (291.0), +5.4 ppg
5 - Denver Broncos (6-0, 1st AFC West) Total Offense: 9th (368.7), Total Defense: 2nd (262.5), +11.2 ppg
6 - Minnesota Vikings (6-1, 1st NFC North) Total Offense: 12th (353.6), Total Defense: 17th (330.0), +8.3 ppg
7 - New York Giants (5-2, 1st NFC East) Total Offense: 6th (391.3), Total Defense: 1st (262.0), +7.4 ppg

Also published on SoCalSportsHub.com. Check back Friday for a look ahead at Week 8.

NFL Week 7 Preview

2009-10-23T13:11:00.000-07:00

Game of the Week: Minnesota Vikings (6-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) 10 AM - Fox

The Steelers have been pretty unstoppable in the air, and the Vikings are ranked 24th against the pass, so Ben Roethlisberger may have a huge day. Rashard Mendenhall has been banged up in practice this week, meaning Pittsburgh's run game will be even weaker than usual. If Brett Favre is careful with the ball and Adrian Peterson keeps Roethlisberger off the field, the Vikings will stay undefeated. Prediction: Steelers win, Vikings cover (+4.5)

San Diego Chargers (2-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-5) 10 AM - CBS
LaDainian Tomlinson has been terrible this season and he had the flu early in the week - like he needs an excuse to mope around on the sideline all game long. But the Chargers don't need any kind of running game to beat the Chiefs; they just need Philip Rivers to have time to find the many, many open receivers there will be. If the Chiefs get to Rivers, they can win. Prediction: Chargers win and cover (-4.5)

Green Bay Packers (3-2) at Cleveland Browns (1-5) 10 AM
You know parity is completely absent in the NFL when a slightly-better-than-average team like the Packers is an absolule lock to win on the road. Cleveland has no idea who to put at quarterback and that may be their deepest position. But the good news for Browns fans is that the players reportedly have no confidence in head coach Eric Mangini. Oh wait, that's bad. Prediction: Packers win and cover (-7.5)

Sleeper Game of the Week: San Francisco 49ers (3-2) at Houston Texans (3-3) 10 AM
The 49ers are coming off a bye week which forced them to think about that 1000 point loss at home to Atlanta two weeks ago (or at least it probably felt that way), so they'll be motivated. They had better be because Matt Schaub and the Texans are 3rd in the NFL in passing yards per game. Both defenses are middle-of-the-pack against the run and pass. Frank Gore has to have a huge game to keep the Texans' offense off of the field, so basically it comes down to Gore vs. Schaub/Andre Johnson. Prediction: Houston wins and covers (-3.5)

Lock of the Week: Indianapolis Colts (5-0) at St. Louis Rams (0-6) 10 AM
Give Peyton Manning two weeks to prepare for just about anyone and he's gonna win. Against the 0-6 Rams? Yes. Manning is averaging over 300 yards per game this season, so as long as he doesn't turn the ball over and give the Rams free-chances and short fields, the Colts will roll. Prediction: Colts win and cover (-13.5)

Lock of the Week, Vol. II: New England Patriots (4-2) "at" Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-6) 10 AM
The only real question in this one is if the scoreboard at Wimbley Stadium (normally a soccer stadium) will have enough space for whatever score the Patriots put up. The crowd could play a small factor in this one, seeing as the British people probably won't be very fond of a team called the "Patriots," and also since the Bucs are owned by the owner of Manchester United. But the fans don't understand the game enough to know what difference they might make. And it wouldn't matter anyway. Prediction: Patriots win and cover (-14.5)

Buffalo Bills (2-4) at Carolina Panthers (2-3) 1:05 PM
Jake Delhomme is tied for the league lead in interceptions with 10 and the Bills picked off 6 balls last week. That doesn't bode well for Carolina, except that he may never be called on to throw a ball. Despite that impressive defensive show, the Bills also gave up 318 rushing yards to the Jets last week as well. And while Thomas Jones and Leon Washington are very good, the Panthers' DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are better. Prediction: Panthers win, Bills covers (+7.5)

New York Jets (3-3) at Oakland Raiders (2-4) 1:05 PM
Mark Sanchez inexplicably threw five interceptions last week, despite that the Jets running game completely embarrassed the Bills. Sanchez seemed to struggle with the windy, cold conditions at the Meadowlands (get use to that!), and will likely find it easier to take care of the ball in sunny, warm Oakland. Especially since the Raiders are averaging less than a pick per game, and 220 yards passing allowed per game. If Rex Ryan's defense can stop the Raiders' running game, the Jets win because JaMarcus Russell isn't beating anyone with his arm. Prediction: Jets win, Raiders cover (+6.5)

Chicago Bears (3-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) 1:15 PM
Jay Cutler may be able to celebrate his new contract extension with a huge day since Cincinnati will be without Antwan Odom for the rest of the season. That will hurt the Bengals' pass-rush considerably. Cincy's Cedric Benson (4th in the NFL in yards per game: 88.5) would probably like nothing more than to have a huge game as well, in order to stick it to the Bears for dumping him in favor of Matt Forte (23rd: 55.8). Prediction: Bears win and cover (+1.5)

Atlanta Falcons (4-1) at Dallas Cowboys (3-2) 1:15 PM - Fox
The team whose running game controls the clock wins. Dallas seems to be viewing this game as a statement game to show what they're all about, but they seem to have those games every few weeks, which means they clearly don't know the answer. At this point it seems clear that Tony Romo is simply not Troy Aikman and the Cowboys need to get the ball out of Romo's hands, commit to being a running team so Flozell Adams can stop getting beaten by pass rushers every play, and ride Marian Barber and Tashard Choice into the playoffs. Prediction: Cowboys win and cover (-3.5)

New Orleans Saints (5-0) at Miami Dolphins (2-3) 1:15 PM
The Saints have never won in Miami. But there's a first time for everything. Both teams allow around only 80 yards rushing per game, so don't expect much on the ground in this one. The difference is that if the Dolphins are forced to throw it, they're not really playing to their strengths. If New Orleans is forced to throw, they could score 100. Prediction: Saints win, Dolphins cover (+6.5)

Game of the Week, Vol. II: Arizona Cardinals (3-2) at New York Giants (5-1) 5:20 - NBC
Arizona is the best in the league at stopping the run, which is what the Giants like to do most on offense. New York is the best in the league at stopping the pass, which is what the Cardinals like to do most on offense. So unless one strength wears down the other, the question may end up being: whose second option is better? Do you like Tim Hightower and Beanie Wells against the Giants' front 7 or Eli Manning, Steve Smith, and Mario Manningham against the Cardinals' secondary? Prediction: Giants win and cover (-7.5)

Philadelphia Eagles (3-2) at Washington Redskins (2-4) Monday 5:30 - ESPN
Not only is Philly fighting to stay in contact with the Giants in the NFC East, but they're also out to show that last week's embarrassing loss to the Raiders was an anomaly. Last week Eagles' coach Andy Reid chose not to test one of the worst pass-defenses in football, and called passing plays on just 20% of the snaps. Imagine how lopsided the play-calling will be this week against the league's third best pass-defense in Washington! Speaking of play-calling, the Redskins took that duty away from head coach Jim Zorn and hired a new coach out of retirement to take over 5 days before a divisional game. That can't end badly, right? Prediction: Eagles win and cover (-7.5)

All times are Pacific and TV airing info is for the Los Angeles area only. See this website for what's airing in your area.

Season Predictions: 48-42 against the spread, 59-31 straight up

Aikman Awards For Sports-Journalistic Incompetence

2009-10-21T12:20:00.000-07:00

This is probably a post that could be written daily, but as you watch and listen to sports, read about it, and listen to sports-talk, you stumble across spectacularly stupid people. And I'm not talking about Troy Aikman's command of the English language. Well, I am. But not only that.

--Listening to local L.A. guys on ESPN radio on Sunday just before Cliff Lee took the mound for the Phillies against the Dodgers in Game 3 of their NLCS in Philadelphia, they were all arguing the same point that the Dodgers may actually have an advantage over the Phillies in the fact that they do not have an ace. The argument was that if you reply on an ace and he loses, it is a great psychological blow. But if you have no ace, you can't ever experience that let-down.

This is a ground-breaking concept that can be applied universally! Why keep your body in good condition? Rather, we should all get a little pudgy and try to eat fatty foods so that if we have a heart attack someday, we will not be disappointed because we knew it was likely. Don't study or work hard because if you do not reach a career goal, you will have seen it coming.

So GM's out there: don't go after the best players possible. Sure guys like Cliff Lee will win 18-20 games a year and keep their ERA's under 3.0. But think of the psychological impact in those 4-5 games a year that they don't win! Always aim for mediocrity so you won't be surprised when you get it.

Incidentally, Lee threw 8 shutout innings and allowed 3 hits and no walks in that game. The Phillies won 11-0. The Dodgers threw two non-"ace" starters onto the mound that night and they combined to allow 8 earned runs in 4.2 innings. What's the psychological impact of that?

--These same radio guys went on to debate what has wrong with Manny Ramirez since he had "returned." They delicately avoided the elephant in the room, deciding that his problem was one of three things:

1) He is not confident in his game plan. Despite his aloof image, Manny had always been a well-studied hitter and always had a plan when he stepped into the box. "Something" has affected his belief that his plan will work.

2) He has lost his swagger. "Something" has made it so pitchers are not intimidated by him anymore. They are attacking him more.

3) He is getting fooled. "Something" has changed and he is no longer guessing right on pitches. He is often not getting the pitches he expects in certain spots.

Not once did they mention what it was that he had returned from - a performance enhancing drug suspension. Not once did they even mention performance enhancing drugs at all. Manny is the poster-child for what happens after you stop using. It is one thing to be a fan of a team and be blind to your heroes' faults. But these guys are journalists. You can be a fan and a journalist, but when you are working, put down the foam finger and tell it like it is! As they say, "no cheering from the pressbox!"

--I heard earlier this week that Sasha Vujacic cut his hair short and had an interesting, non-fashion-related reason. Vujacic believes that as a rookie (with short hair), he did not get calls from refs because he was too baby-faced. So he grew his hair longer and grew out some stubble for a few seasons so that he would look a little older. Now that he is a more established player, he feels that he will get more calls even if he is still pretty baby-faced with his new short-haircut.

There is some logic in that. Vujacic did look older with his grubby-look and does look very young again now. The problem is that he is failing to see that the reason that refs may have treated him like a rookie was that he was one. And the reason that he will likely get some veteran treatment by refs now is because he is one. All that hair really did as make him look like an idiot for a couple of years.

--When the Phillies beat the Dodgers on a walk-off triple in Game 4, Chip Caray gave a great "exciting-game-ending-play-at-the-plate" call. The trouble was, there was no play and Caray was basically just reading from a script. Jimmy Rollins hit the ball to the game and Carey went right into the script including the obligatory "Ruiz rounds third; here's the throw to the plate...it's not in time! Phillies win!" There was no throw. The ball was cut off and Rafael Furcal was actually shown carrying it with him off the field.

This is just a week after Caray blew the biggest call in the Twins-Tigers playoff game. Bottom of the 10th inning, 1 out, runners on first and third. Here is Caray's call: "Line drive, base hit...caught out there. Runner tags; here he comes. Throw to the plate...on target and in tiiiiiime. A double play ends the 10th. Rayburn evens the ledger."

Here's what happened: Nick Punto lined out to left fielder Ryan Rayburn. And it wasn't a diving play or anything. Rayburn just kinda stood there and the ball was hit right to him. The runner from third tagged up and Rayburn threw home. The throw was way right, but the catcher caught it and dove back at the plate to get the out at home.

So the call was dead on except that it wasn't a base hit (which, by definition, couldn't have been caught anyway), the throw wasn't close to the target, and Rayburn didn't "even the ledger" because the game was already tied.

So he's blown the call on the biggest moment of two of the last 10 games he's worked. Not to mention a million other gaffs along the way. He gives incorrect stats. He calls line-drive outs "base hits" somewhat regularly. He is a chronic exaggerator. He seems surprised and impressed by the most obvious common knowledge "trivia." He makes factual and game-play errors constantly. And if I have to hear him say again that Sandy Alomar, Sr. used to say that you don't "watch" the game, you should "observe" it, I am going to lose it. He says it every game, usually out of context. In Game 4 of the NLCS he said it after Ron Darling pointed out that pitchers in the bullpen way out in center field have a hard time seeing the exact edges of an ump's strike zone.

From USA Today:

"This was heard from Caray during [a] Twins-New York Yankees American League Division Series game: 'A quality at-bat for (Minnesota shortstop) Orlando Cabrera.'

"But Cabrera struck out with two men on, his team down 6-2 to end the top of the seventh inning and batting champion Joe Mauer on deck."

So not only is he incompetent, but he is he a grown man who wants people to call him "Chip" even though his name is Harry. But I'm sure he's paid really well and has lots of people who tell him how good he is. (There was a fantastic fake-Chip Caray account on Twitter that got taken down after being highlighted in a post on Deadspin. So you can't see the Twitter anymore, but see some highlights here.)

Perhaps this post should be the Aikman-Caray Awards?

--And finally, I am not sure if I blame ESPN and Joe Schad for reporting this story, or if I blame the high school coach for being a moron more. But Terrelle Pryor's high school football coach thinks Jim Tressel isn't using Pryor properly. I'm sure Tressel (and most Div. I college coaches) love taking strategic advice from high school coaches. I'm sure Tressel will take it to heart and change his system because a guy who used on know one of his players thinks he's doing it wrong. Pryor's kindergarten teacher reportedly thinks he should be allowed to nap during defensive series because Pryor often looks cranky on the sidelines.

NFL Week 6 Hangover

2009-10-21T09:48:00.000-07:00

New Orleans Saints 48 – New York Giants 27
The formerly #1 ranked Giants defense allowed the Saints to score touchdowns on five of six first half possessions, gaining over 300 yards in the process. And though the Giants kept them in check for most of the second half, this one was never in doubt once Drew Brees stepped on the field in the 1st quarter. Put the topic to bed; the Saints are the NFL’s best team.

Fantasy Studs: Drew Brees (23/30, 369 yards, 4 touchdowns), Hakeem Nicks (5 receptions, 114 yards, 1 touchdown), Marques Colston (8 receptions, 166 yards, 1 touchdown), Lance Moore (6 receptions, 78 yards, 1 touchdown), Robert Meechem (2 receptions, 70 yards, 1 touchdown)

Next Week: Saints (5-0) at Dolphins (2-3), 1:15 PM; Cardinals (3-2) at Giants (5-1), 5:20 PM

Minnesota Vikings 33 – Baltimore Ravens 31
At halftime this game was something like the bruising, defensive battle we all expected (17 total points). Then in the second half the teams combined for 47 points, scoring on 7 of the last 9 drives before Baltimore’s Steven Hauschka missed a 44-yard field goal with no time left on the clock to preserve Minnesota’s undefeated season.

Fantasy Studs: Joe Flacco (28/43, 385 yards, 2 touchdowns), Brett Favre (21/29, 278 yards, 3 touchdowns), Ray Rice (10 carries, 77 yards, 2 touchdowns, 10 receptions, 117 yards), Adrian Peterson (22 carries, 143 yards), Sydney Rice (6 receptions, 176 yards), Derrick Mason (7 receptions, 97 yards, 1 touchdown), Ryan Longwell (4/4 XP’s, 4/4 FG’s – 40, 22, 29, 31)

Next Week: Vikings (6-0) at Steelers (4-2), 10 AM; Ravens (3-3), bye

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 – Cleveland Browns 14
So much for the smash-mouth Steelers. Ben Roethlisberger threw for over 400 yards and the Steelers beat the Browns for the 12th consecutive time. The Steelers’ backfield questions went unanswered as Rashard Mendenhall got the majority of carries (17-7), but Willie Parker had a slightly better yards-per-carry average (3.7-3.6), with each losing 1 fumble on the day. Troy Polamalu had 4 tackles and an interception in his first game since being injured in Week 1 as the Steelers only allowed 1 scoring drive all game.

Fantasy Studs: Ben Roethlisberger (23/35, 417 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception, 1 fumble lost), Hines Ward (8 receptions, 159 yards, 1 touchdown), Santana Holmes (5 receptions, 104 yards), Heath Miller (5 receptions, 80 yards, 1 touchdown), Steelers’ defense (14 points allowed, 2 fumble recoveries, 2 sacks, 2 interceptions)

Next Week: Vikings (6-0) at Steelers (4-2), 10 AM; Packers (3-2) at Browns (1-5), 10 AM

Carolina Panthers 28 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21
This is more like the Panthers we expected to see. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart combined for over 250 yards rushing and three touchdowns, and the defense only allowed 1 touchdown drive. However, they also gave up 5 yards per carry and Jake Delhomme added two more interceptions to his league-leading total. On the other side, quarterback Josh Johnson was sacked 4 times and fumbled five times (losing only 1).

Fantasy Studs: DeAngelo Williams (30 carries, 152 yards, 2 touchdowns), Jonathan Stewart (17 carries, 110 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 fumble lost), Cadillac Williams (16 carries, 77 yards, 1 touchdown)

Next Week: Bills (2-4) at Panthers (2-3), 1:05 PM; Patriots (4-2) at Buccaneers (0-6), 10 AM

Kansas City Chiefs 14, Washington Redskins 6
The Redskins have not faced an opponent win a win at the time of the game all season, and they’re probably lucky to be 2-4. The Chiefs earned their first win of the season, and first of head coach Todd Haley’s career, largely by default. The closest either team got to the end zone was a safety, as no touchdowns were scored. Neither team made it past the opposing 20-yard line in the first half, and only twice in the second half. Ticket-holding fans are not expected to be reimbursed, however.

Fantasy Studs: Ryan Succop (4/4 FG’s – 39, 46, 46, 24), Chiefs’ defense (6 points allowed, 3 sacks, 1 interception, 1 safety, 4 forced fumbles, 1 fumble recovery)

Next Week: Chargers (2-3) at Chiefs (1-5), 10 AM; Eagles (3-2) at Redskins (2-4), Monday 5:30 PM

Jacksonville Jaguars 23 – St. Louis Rams 20 (OT)
For the first time this season, the Rams were not losing at the end of regulation. But they were after the overtime. The Rams scored a season-high 20-points, but had no answer for Maurice Jones-Drew on defense (not many teams do) and gave up a 36-yard field goal on the opening possession of the overtime.

Fantasy Studs: Maurice Jones-Drew (33 carries, 133 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 fumble lost), Mike Sims-Walker (9 receptions, 120 yards), Torry Holts (5 receptions), 101 yards

Next Week: Indianapolis (5-0) at St. Louis (0-6), 10 AM; Jacksonville (3-3), bye

Houston Texans 28 – Cincinnati Bengals 17
Matt Schaub had seen the Bengals win one tight game after another this season and he decided to put this one away early. Shaub threw for nearly 400 yards and four touchdowns as the Bengals ran out of 4th quarter magic. Their three 4th quarter possessions resulted in a punt, a fumble, and an interception.

Fantasy Studs: Matt Schaub (28/40, 392 yards, 4 touchdowns, 1 interception), Andre Johnson (8 receptions, 135 yards), Steve Slaton (6 receptions, 102 yards, 1 touchdown, 10 carries, 43 yards, 1 fumble lost), Owen Daniels (7 receptions, 78 yards, 2 touchdowns), Chad Ochocinco (5 receptions, 103 yards)

Next Week: 49ers (3-2) at Texans (3-3), 10 AM; Bears (3-2) at Bengals (4-2), 1:15 PM

Green Bay Packers 26 – Detroit Lions 0
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers jumped out to a quick start and then threw it into autopilot for the final three quarters. Rodgers threw two first quarter touchdown passes, but the Packers did not get back into the end zone for the rest of the day. Green Bay’s defense had little trouble with Detroit’s back-up quarterbacks and held them to just 105 yards passing in 25 combined attempts. Detroit gained only 149 total yards all day.

Fantasy Studs: Packers’ defense (0 point allowed, 3 interceptions, 5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles), Aaron Rodgers (29-37, 358 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception, 1 fumble lost), Ryan Grant (24 carries, 94 yards), Donald Driver (7 receptions, 107 yards), Mason Crosby (2/2 XP’s, 4/4 FG’s – 46, 28, 31, 26)

Next Week: Packers (3-2) at Browns (1-5), 10 AM; Lions (1-5), bye

Arizona Cardinals 27 – Seattle Seahawks 3
The Seahawks probably saw this game as a chance to make a statement in the relatively weak NFC West. They made one: “We’re not going to win.” The Seahawks managed just 128 total yards (14 rushing!) against the resurgent Cardinals and Kurt Warner moved into a tie as the fastest quarterback to 30,000 yards in history. The Cards are out to prove once again that they can win without any semblance of a running game.

Fantasy Studs: Kurt Warner (32/41, 276 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception), Larry Fitzgerald (13 receptions, 100 yards, 1 touchdown), Steve Breaston (7 receptions, 77 yards, 1 touchdown), Cardinals’ defense (3 points allowed, 2 forced fumbles, 1 fumble recovery, 1 interception, 5 sacks)

Next Week: Cardinals (3-2) at Giants (5-1), 5:20 PM, Seahawks (2-4), bye

Oakland Raiders 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 9
Is there such a thing as momentum in sports? The Raiders had lost their last three games, scoring a total of 16 points. The Eagles had won their last two, scoring a total of 67 points. Philadelphia had more yards of offense in Week 5 than Oakland had had in Week 4 and 5 combined. And yet, here we are with the Raiders winning despite JaMarcus Russell continuing to be awful and the Raiders continuing to have no running game. The Eagles ran only 12 running plays against the leagues 4th worst run defense.

Fantasy Studs: Zach Miller (6 reception, 139 yards, 1 touchdown), Justin Fargas (23 carries, 87 yards), DeSean Jackson (6 receptions, 94 yards), Brian Westbrook ( 9 receptions, 91 yards), Raiders’ defense (9 points allowed, 6 sacks)

Next Week: Jets (4-2) at Raiders (2-4), 1:05 PM; Eagles (3-2) at Redskins (2-4), Monday 5:30 PM

New England Patriots 59 – Tennessee Titans 0
One might wonder why Tom Brady threw 34 times in a 59 point blowout, or why he was in the game to start the second half…and still throwing. But this isn’t pee-wee football, and it is up to the defense to stop them if they don’t like it. Brady was nearly perfect for the Pats, while Vince Young was 0-2 with an interception in just over one quarter of work.

Fantasy Studs: Tom Brady (29/34, 380 yards, 6 touchdowns), Chris Johnson (17 carries, 128 yards), Lawrence Maroney (16 carries, 123 yards, 1 touchdown), Wes Welker (10 receptions, 150 yards, 2 touchdowns), Randy Moss (8 receptions, 129 yards, 3 touchdowns), Patriots’ defense (0 points allowed, 6 fumbles forced, 3 fumble recoveries, 2 interceptions)

Next Week: Patriots (4-2) at Buccaneers (0-6), 10 AM; Titans (0-6), bye

Buffalo Bills 16 – New York Jets 13 (OT)
Mark Sanchez is starting to look more like Matt Leinart and less like Carson Palmer. Sanchez is now tied for the league lead in interception, after five of his passes ended up in the hands of guys in the wrong colored shirts. The Jets’ win over New England and 4-0 start seem like distant memories as they now sit just ½ game ahead of Miami for third in the AFC East, already having lost to the Dolphins head-to-head. Buffalo’s 2nd win of the season could best be described as an accident after they stumbled on offense all game and their defense allowed over 300 yards on the ground.

Fantasy Studs: Thomas Jones (22 carries, 210 yards, 1 touchdown), Leon Washington (15 carries, 99 yards), Bills defense (13 points allowed, 5 interceptions, 1 forced fumble, 1 sack), Rian Lindell (1/1 XP’s, 3/4 FG’s – 33, 25, 47)

Next Week: Jets (4-2) at Raiders (2-4), 10 AM; Bills (2-4) at Panthers (2-3), 1:05 PM

Atlanta Falcons 21 – Chicago Bears 14
The Bears turned the ball over 3 times inside the 10-yard line, once on downs with under one minute to play. Jay Cutler and Matt Ryan traded fourth quarter touchdown drives however and it looked like Cutler might have one more in him to tie it up, but a false start penalty on Orlando Pace turned a 4th-and-1 into a 4th-and-6 with under a minute to go, and Cutler couldn’t convert. Cutler led the Bears in rushing as Matt Forte was quieted once again, and held to 23 yards on 15 carries, with 2 fumbles.

Fantasy Studs: Jay Cutler (27/43, 300 yards, 2 touchdowns, 2 interceptions)

Next Week: Bears (3-2) at Bengals (4-2), 1:15 PM; Falcons (4-1) at Cowboys (3-2), 1:15 PM

Denver Broncos 34 – San Diego Chargers 23
If their offenses aren’t going to get the job done, Eddie Royal and Darren Sproles will take things into their own hands. Royal had a punt and kick returned for touchdowns and Sproles took back a punt as well. LaDainian Tomlinson was ineffective once again and the Chargers’ entire offensive hopes fell on the shoulder of Philip Rivers. Kyle Orton was his typical unspectacular self, and did what he seems to always do – win.

Fantasy Studs: Kyle Orton (20/29, 229 yards, 2 touchdowns), Philip Rivers (20/33, 274 yards, 1 touchdown), Tony Scheffler (6 receptions, 101 yards, 1 touchdown), Eddie Royal (8 total returns, 235 yards, 2 touchdowns), Darren Sproles (8 total returns, 226 yards, 1 touchdown)

Next Week: Chargers (2-3) at Chiefs (1-5), 10 AM; Broncos (6-0), bye

Originally published on October 20 on SoCalSportsHub.com.

NFL Week 6 Preview

2009-10-16T08:58:00.001-07:00

Game of the Week: Giants (5-0) at Saints (4-0) 10AM - Fox

The undefeated Saints and their high powered offense are just 3.5 point favorites at home, after a bye week, against a quarterback with a bad foot and a secondary missing most of its starters, so either the odds makers aren't sold on New Orleans, or they're over-sold on New York. Possibly a bit of both, but the 5-0 Giants have played one average team (the Cowboys) and beat them on a last second field goal. The other 4 wins came against the Redskins, Buccaneers, Chiefs, and Raiders...not exactly a solid test. But that weak early schedule has given the new receiving group to gel with Eli Manning. This week we will find out for sure if either or both of these teams are for real (answer: yes and yes). Winner: Giants

Game of the Week, Vol. II: Ravens (3-2) at Vikings (5-0) 10AM - CBS

Minnesota's defense is good. The Ravens offense is good. So that's a nice little matchup. But the marquee outside of the Metrodome won't be flashing "Joe Flacco vs. Jared Allen." This is a matchup of the game's best runningback vs. its best run defense. And it is a matchup of one of the game's all-time best quarterbacks vs. one of its all-time best safeties. The Ravens may be able to slow down Peterson. And they may be able to stuff Favre. But can they do both? Winner: Vikings

Texans (2-3) at Bengals (4-1) 10AM

Cincinnati doesn't win big, but they just keep winning. Carson Palmer seems to be fully recovered from the elbow injury that basically cost him the 2008 season, and Chad Ochocinco is thriving because of it. Houston gives up a lot of big plays on defense, but they if they can get to Palmer and keep the Bengals from lighting it up, Houston's offense is certainly good enough to carry them. Winner: Bengals

Lions (1-4) at Packers (2-2) 10AM

The Packers were supposed to be serious contenders for the NFC North crown and they already find themselves a head-to-head loss and two games behind the Vikings. The Lions have been considerably better than last year, but Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson haven't practiced much this week and Dante Culpepper gave the ball away too many times last week. The Packers are favored by 2 touchdowns and that might mean then only need to score 20 points to cover. Winner: Packers

Panthers (1-3) at Buccaneers (0-5) 10AM

Cadillac Williams is leading the Bucs in rushing, and he is averaging a little under 10 carries per game. No wonder it's been so tough on their quarterbacks! But the Bucs have shown some signs of life with new quarterback Josh Johnson, who seems to be in sync with Kellen Winslow. If Williams or Derrick Ward starts carrying their share of the offense on the ground, the Bucs could be decent. Winner: Buccaneers

Chiefs (0-5) at Redskins (2-3) 10AM

Much has been said about the Redskins not playing a team with a win through the first six weeks. I'm not sure if the saddest part is that they're only 2-3, or that people keep expecting them to lose. Kansas City looked solid last week against Dallas (well, against all of Dallas except Miles Austin). Winner: Chiefs

Rams (0-5) at Jaguars (2-3) 10AM

Because every game on the schedule has to be played whether anyone is watching or not. Winner: Jaguars

Lock of the Week: Browns (1-4) at Steelers (3-2) 10AM

Derek Anderson was once a Pro-Bowl quarterback. He's not anymore. And while the Browns insist they're not shopping golden boy (who isn't apparently very good) Brady Quinn, Quinn is reportedly shopping his Cleveland-are house. Troy Polamalu returns to the Steelers this week and the way their offense is playing, they might win this game 40-0. Winner: Steelers

Cardinals (2-2) at Seahawks (2-3) 1:05PM

Despite what most people around the NFL might have heard, the NFC and AFC West do still exist and this game is proof. This game could go a long way towards determining which of these two will rival the 49ers for divisional supremacy, especially if the Cards can steal one on the road. Winner: Seahawks

Lock of the Week, Vol. II: Eagles (3-1) at Raiders (1-4) 1:05PM

84.8% of the people playing ESPN's Pigskin Pick 'Em game picked the Eagles to cover the spread in this one. So 85% of fans think the Raiders will lose by at least 15 at home. Watching the Raiders play last week, I don't even think it matters who the opponent is for that to be true. Winners: Eagles

Bills (1-4) at Jets (3-2) 1:15PM - CBS

Despite what it may seem, the Jets really aren't relying on Mark Sanchez to do that much for them to win. They are babying him so he can get some experience under his belt before they lay the franchise on his shoulders for real. Proof? In Monday's grudge match with the Dolphins, which turned into a shootout in the fourth quarter, Sanchez only had 24 pass attempts. For the season, he has thrown the 19th most passes of all quarterbacks, the fewest of any full-time starter with 5 games under his belt. Winner: Jets

Titans (0-5) at Patriots (3-2) 1:15PM

At some point the Titans have to show up again, right? They can't be this bad after being that good last year, right? After Kerry Collins got benched last week there was some question whether he'd lost his starting job. Apparently he hasn't but he has thrown the second most passes in the league so far, and has the 29th best passer rating. Winner: Patriots

Bears (3-1) at Falcons (3-1) 5:20PM - NBC

Jay Cutler has been a far more patient quarterback since coming over to the Bears and besides his Week 1 meltdown, he's been a much better one as well. The Falcons' offensive balance could give the Bears defense trouble, with Matt Ryan having options all over the field particularly with Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez, and Michael Turner. Winner: Falcons

Broncos (5-0) at Chargers (2-2) Monday 5:30PM - ESPN

This game could mark the official changing of the guard in the AFC West if Denver can go in to Mission Valley and beat the Chargers. LaDainian Tomlinson has the 30-year-old-runningback-blues, and the Chargers defense is allowing over 25 points per game. I can't say I am a huge believer in the Broncos or Kyle Orton yet, but the guy has won 2/3 of his career starts, and they are 5-0. Winner: Broncos

All times are Pacific and TV airing info is for the Los Angeles area only. See this website for what's airing in your area.

Before, During, And After Manny's Supension

2009-10-15T17:04:00.000-07:00

When Manny Ramirez went on his maternity leave early in the 2009 season, I thought it might be interesting to note some of the main offensive stats for the team and then see what kind of effect Manny's absence would have. At the time, the team was off to an incredibly fast start both with the bats and on the mound. I then recorded the same set of stats at the time Manny returned, and then again at the regular season's end. I wrote down a few hypotheses about what would happen and while a few were supported by the numbers, but I was somewhat surprised by others.

Predictions:
-All offensive statistics will dip dramatically in Manny's absence. Upon his return, they'll improve but overall the team will lose ground down the stretch after extending themselves to wait out the suspension.
-Andre Ethier will experience the most dramatic dip and then increase in stats since he has been hitting in front of Manny in the lineup and will miss that protection.
-Juan Pierre's numbers will experience a dramatic downturn regardless of Manny's presence (Pierre is hitting .346 at the time of the suspension). Playing every day will hurt him and he will not finish the season over .300.
-The pitching staff's hot start will come to a screeching halt as the offense struggles and puts more pressure on the pitching.
-Manny's post-suspension numbers will not dip dramatically upon his return. He will struggle initially after the lay-off, but eventually regain his form.
-The Dodgers' 6.5 game lead at the time of the suspension will initially be extended, but be erased by the end of the season. They may win the West, but not by more than 3 games.

None of my predictions were particularly ground-breaking. The common assumption was that absent of Manny's bat in the middle of the line-up, opposing pitching staffs would not be afraid to pitch to or around the other players when called for. When Manny returned, he might have rust to shake off, but he'd eventually become the fearsome hitter he's been for years. While some of this proved correct, there were some surprises.

Results:
-Juan Pierre held up far better than expected. Prior to the suspension, he batted .346 in limited, back-up duty. As an everyday starter for those 50 games, he batted .322 with 37 runs scored and 24 RBI in 245 at bats. He struggled a lot more coming off the bench after Manny came back (.281, 20 R, 7 RBI in 135 at bats) and finished the season at .308. But his numbers during the suspension probably saved the season for Los Angeles.
-Matt Kemp had a solid season over all, but his power was far better with Manny in the lineup. Kemp hit .275, 17 R, 17 RBI, 3 HR in the first 29 games. During the suspension, but he improved his batting average to .302 but only hit 7 homers in his next approximately 200 at bats. Then when Manny returned, Kemp's power numbers took a huge leap, surging from 10 homers in his first 291 at bats, to 16 homers in his final 315 at bats.
-Andre Ethier did struggle greatly in Manny's absence. Pre-suspension: .317, .76 runs/game, .93 RBI/game, about 15 AB/HR. Without Manny: .257, .38 runs/game, .52 RBI/game, 31.1 AB/HR. Post-suspension: .285, .63 runs/game, .65 RBI/game, 19.8 AB/HR. Even with Manny struggling after his return, Ethier was likely seeing much better pitches to hit, and hit them he did!
-Orlando Hudson's red hot start came to a screeching halt, but that probably had as much to do with the law of averages as it did Manny Ramirez. Hudson hit .342 prior to the suspension, .292 during it, and just .364 afterwards to finish the season right at his career average of .281.
-The team averaged 5.55 runs per game before, 4.40 runs during, and 4.81 runs after the suspension for a season average of 4.81 as well. Their margin of victory went from +1.90 (wow!) to +.58 to +1.02. They were +1.04 on the season.
-The pitching staff did not see any great change despite the increased pressure put on as the offense dipped. In fact, the staff ERA dropped from 3.72 before to 3.46 during the suspension. And if you think that could be attributed to the better defense that Pierre provided over Manny in left field (though Manny's potential errors would only lead to unearned run and not affect ERA), the staff ERA dropped to an amazing 2.75 over the final 83 games of the season! The season ERA was an ML leading 3.41.
-The team did struggle during the suspension, going from an over all winning percentage of .724 to .580. They were only 28-21 during the suspension after starting out 21-8. When Manny returned, the winning percentage continued to dip despite the amazing pitching and the fact that the batting average and runs/game all improved. They were 45-38 (.542) after Manny returned and finished 95-67 (.586).
-Their NL West lead was 6.5 games when Manny went out. It actually stretched out to 7.5 games when Manny returned, and shrunk all the way down to 1 game in the final weekend before stretching back out to 3 games at season's end.
-While Ethier had the biggest slide with Manny out (70 points), Rafael Furcal had the worst numbers. Furcal hit just .240 during the suspension. Furcal hit .293 when Manny returned, but finished the season a disappointing .269 with just 57 runs scored despite playing a full season (150 games played).
-Besides Pierre, Casey Blake was the team's biggest savior during the suspension. 33 or Blake's 79 RBI came during those 50 games. He hit .286 during the suspension (.264 before, .274 after).
-Russell Martin's superstar status seems to be a thing of the past. While he is still becoming known as a great game-caller, his offensive numbers are not good. He struggled before and during the suspension (.246 total BA with 1 HR in 248 at bats). He improved slightly after the suspension, hitting .253 with 6 homers in his final 257 at bats.

And finally, there is Manny Ramirez. Pre-suspension, Manny his .348 and hit a homer every 15.3 at bats. Upon his return, his batting average dipped 79 points (.269), and his homerun average dropped to 1 every 20 at bats (still impressive). With three times the at bats after the suspension as before it, he barely scored and drove in twice the runs.

The slugger's post-suspension numbers were nowhere near the astronomical numbers he had put up in his first nearly full-season with the Dodgers. His struggles have been attributed various things, like being upset that he was being booed for his steroid-related suspension, being distracted by the circus around the suspension, being slow to get back into the groove, etc. Announcers keep saying that Manny is almost all the way back and that any day now, he will take over.

It's been nearly 90 games since the suspension. It's not rust. He was booed for a decade before this drug suspension. It's not his fragile emotions. He's been in the center ring of his own circus his entire career. He's not distracted. It is pretty clear that Manny struggled after coming back from a performance enhancing drug suspension because performance enhancing drugs were not enhancing his performance anymore.

Maybe I am not so upset that the Mets didn't sign him, and that the Dodgers are stuck with his $22 million dollar contract for a 38 year-old defensive liability who'll be lucky to hit .275 and 25 homers next year.